JAR69 wrote:Been wondering how (if at all) Wes and Beal will adjust to last year's change in foul-calling. We didn't really seem to adjust to it last year, or to do so well. Maybe there isn't much to be done - players like Beal who thrived on FT attempts from lighter dribble/drive contact may just be less valuable. But one thing Beal has (or had) is a wide range of offensive skills. I'm hoping Wes has a plan to get the most out of those skills in this changed environment. I'm not enough of a X and O person to know what that could be. But doc's recent long post in the Porz thread made me wonder if some of those concepts could be useful to the reffing adjustment.
I think it is an excellent question. To me there are a few offensive implications of the new foul emphasis.
High level ballhandlers are now at a premium. True playmakers. The guys who can get to their spot or get the ball to a shooter are a useful weapon again. You want guys who can get you open shots. Passing becomes more important than expecting to break your guy off the dribble, but the few who are elite at it will be even more rare.
I suspect tall passers will have an advantage since fouls are more easy to see when the ball is above traffic. If you can get a playmaking Big you are ahead of the game. Passes over the defense are harder to guard. I can see a metagame developing for a team that has two bigs who develop passing chemistry with each other. Post them in the midrange with a tall outside shooter, play monkey-in-the-middle over the defenders heads, and leave runways for the lob dunk threat. Run patterns and back-door attacks with your smaller quicker players.
Without a playmaking guard (or Big), Off ball motion to get free is more important than one-on-one dribble penetration. You want to take open shots instead of trying to force it at the foul line. All players on the team should make fast smart passes, don't let the ball stick, if a guy is struggling, move, give him a target to pass, then swing the ball an extra time. Hot potato. Move the ball so defenders have no time to get inside the dribbler's footwork.
There will be a lot of handfighting close to the body where refs can't see it and won't make the judgment call. Benefit of the doubt goes to the defender. Borderline dirty play is alright even. We are back to the days of: 'foul on every play, they can't call them all'. Add physical defenders to your bench/line-up.
Perimeter players who can finish through contact are again highly valuable. Small combo guards will not be as useful anymore as big athletic wings. Look back to the Jordan era (Vince, TMac, Pippen, etc). The refs often only award the And-1 if you actually make the basket. Otherwise the foul is commonly not called at all. A star player who can make difficult shots and highlight reel plays will still earn fouls. Refs know who pays their checks, if stars miss they were probably fouled, if a second tier player misses he simply needs to be better. And stop whining about it. Because you are taken out of the game at both ends then, and refs don't respect that. And are even less likely to give you the call the next trip.
Seven Seconds or Less is a viable strategy, you don't want the defense to get set, you want them to chase and reach. If you can afford to run an efficient uptempo offense, then yeah you can run on every play. Don't walk it up. Quick ball movement is better than clear-out one-on-one gamesmanship unless you have an obvious mismatch.
I suspect Big interior scorers will come back in some form. And teams that can get the ball inside to them. It helps if they can hit jumpshots as well, so there is still space for off-ball movement and lanes to get momentum for the lob-dunk. But with the 3pt shot harder to get off, and fewer foul shots from dribble-drive attacks, suddenly interior finishing is the most high efficient play again.
Tall shooters will be a more reliable weapon. If you can shoot over the defense, it doesn't matter that they are in your jumping space. Refs will still call the obvious foul on an outside shot, but tall shooters don't have to swing their arms and clear out or rip through in order to get space for a shot, they simply catch it high and go right up. Pick and Pop is as important as Pick and Roll. If you can do both effectively you can keep teams guessing.
So. I think we are looking at:
Bigger, more athletic, stronger. True point guards deliver the ball to interior finishers. Throwback NBA but add Bigs who shoot, and pass.
--countered by--
Motion, passing, smarts. Chemistry. Lesser talented teams stay busy and look for your opportunity to make that high percentage play. Read and react offense. Screening. Pick and Pop/Pick and roll mix. Euroleague/FIBA play.
With dirty defenders advancing in the playoffs.
This thread is for contributing something other than naysaying. Strategy in game play, not fussing about philosophy of long term roster construction. Tactics and personnel: What looks like it might work to you?