Political Roundtable Part XXXIV

[bsilver]

It's unfortunate that presidents/parties lose elections almost solely based on bad economic new. But that's the way it works. George HW Bush was hugely popular after the Gulf War. Then a downturn in the economy and he lost to Clinton. The D's lost in 2024 largely because of inflation. Carville had it right. "It's the economy, stupid". Very hard for a incumbent party/candidate to lose an election with a good economy. Even a criminal will win.

[dobrojim]

[snip]

Dems have to a better job supporting their base - people who either vote dem or not at all. Not moderates or independents who actually are neither.[snip]

It's generally been the people who can't be troubled to become/stay informed and vote who somehow
have to be convinced that the power of their vote(s) could actually make a huge difference
in their own lives as well as the people they share community with both far and near.

TX, as a state, is the perfect example. For years they have had low or the lowest voter participation
in the country and bad (I would call it aggressively stupid) govt as a result. Not nearly enough people
think it is worth the trouble to be informed and actually vote. I suspect if you did a study of
voter participation and correlated with effective govt AND quality of life, the results would be obvious.

[Zonkerbl]

It's unfortunate that presidents/parties lose elections almost solely based on bad economic new. But that's the way it works. George HW Bush was hugely popular after the Gulf War. Then a downturn in the economy and he lost to Clinton. The D's lost in 2024 largely because of inflation. Carville had it right. "It's the economy, stupid". Very hard for a incumbent party/candidate to lose an election with a good economy. Even a criminal will win.

It's literally insane to say that Biden lost because of inflation. The economy was doing just fine. There was zero bad economic news - even with inflation, everyone's incomes were going up and employment was super, super low. Inflation had *nothing* to do with this last election. The moment Trump won the election, *all inflation-related anxiety in the polls evaporated.* "Inflation" was just 2024's "economic anxiety" - "I voted for Trump because of my 'economic anxiety'/'worries about inflation'" sounds a lot better than "I like how Trump gets away with picking on people I don't like, like black people and women (CRT, DEI) and immigrants"

Some people were unhappy because Biden yanked the COVID payments out from under them. Everyone else was just whining about how there are consequences to being an uncourteous jerk, and Trump was making it "safe" to be a smug arrogant jerk again. Yay! Hope it's worth the massive recession his tariffs will cause!

[Zonkerbl]

[snip]

Dems have to a better job supporting their base - people who either vote dem or not at all. Not moderates or independents who actually are neither.[snip]

It's generally been the people who can't be troubled to become/stay informed and vote who somehow
have to be convinced that the power of their vote(s) could actually make a huge difference
in their own lives as well as the people they share community with both far and near.

TX, as a state, is the perfect example. For years they have had low or the lowest voter participation
in the country and bad (I would call it aggressively stupid) govt as a result. Not nearly enough people
think it is worth the trouble to be informed and actually vote. I suspect if you did a study of
voter participation and correlated with effective govt AND quality of life, the results would be obvious.

And it is MUCH MUCH easier to go door to door to people you know agree with you and make the case for going out to vote. I *just don't understand* why the Dem apparatus spends so much time and resources trying to persuade "independents." It makes ZERO sense. Republicans have a TRULY MASSIVE gotv effort, if I understand correctly. For the Dems to win they have to match and exceed it.

[Addendum: Ok, Gemini says it's hard to say whose gotv campaign is bigger/better, for whatever *that's* worth. My intuition is that the Republicans hire smart statisticians like Karl Rove to allocate their gotv resources better, while Dems rely on well meaning volunteers with no track record of success. Republicans are more *humble.* They are willing to pay a lot of money to a consultant and do what the consultant recommends. Karl Rove consistently told the Republicans to lean more and more to the right. Dems stupidly believe the answer is to lean to the right themselves, I guess since the Republicans have so much success with it, when the actual *equivalent strategy* would be to learn more to the *left*]

[AFM]

It's not insane, that's probably the biggest reason why he lost. Inflation wasn't his fault, or anyone in the US govt really, but the perception was that it was somehow Biden's doing. Blame the insane amount of RW propoganda everywhere online and in the media.
"Trump will fix egg prices". Of course he's done the complete opposite with his tariffs.

[dobrojim]

One dem failure in hindsight was not relentlessly
pounding a fact based narrative that Golfy never
fixed anything in his entire miserable life. And
he always dodges responsibility. The signs that said
"Trump will fix it" were so completely and absurdly
a fairy tale they should have attacked that very
idea 7 days/week a 2x on Sunday. He would fix
egg prices the same way a Lysol injection cures COVID.

[Zonkerbl]

One dem failure in hindsight was not relentlessly
pounding a fact based narrative that Golfy never
fixed anything in his entire miserable life. And
he always dodges responsibility. The signs that said
"Trump will fix it" were so completely and absurdly
a fairy tale they should have attacked that very
idea 7 days/week a 2x on Sunday. He would fix
egg prices the same way a Lysol injection cures COVID.

but you can't dobro otherwise all you are saying is you are not Trump!

[Zonkerbl]

It's not insane, that's probably the biggest reason why he lost. Inflation wasn't his fault, or anyone in the US govt really, but the perception was that it was somehow Biden's doing. Blame the insane amount of RW propoganda everywhere online and in the media.
"Trump will fix egg prices". Of course he's done the complete opposite with his tariffs.

yes we are all blameless. It's not because we're a country full of evil people motivated by hate. No it's some simple, reductionist reason that contradicts the actual facts.

[AFM]

It's not insane, that's probably the biggest reason why he lost. Inflation wasn't his fault, or anyone in the US govt really, but the perception was that it was somehow Biden's doing. Blame the insane amount of RW propoganda everywhere online and in the media.
"Trump will fix egg prices". Of course he's done the complete opposite with his tariffs.

yes we are all blameless. It's not because we're a country full of evil people motivated by hate. No it's some simple, reductionist reason that contradicts the actual facts.

Not sure what you're even talking about here but hopefully you didn't include me in the "we".

[pancakes3]

It's not insane, that's probably the biggest reason why he lost. Inflation wasn't his fault, or anyone in the US govt really, but the perception was that it was somehow Biden's doing. Blame the insane amount of RW propoganda everywhere online and in the media.
"Trump will fix egg prices". Of course he's done the complete opposite with his tariffs.

yes we are all blameless. It's not because we're a country full of evil people motivated by hate. No it's some simple, reductionist reason that contradicts the actual facts.

but to AFM and Dobro's point - people don't know or care to know the facts, which is why you need messaging. as a politician, you can't just say "well i have the numbers right here" and call it a day. you need to digest and disseminate that information.

i agree that hate is visceral, and doesn't need digesting. however, people are capable of being racist while also voting in line with their pocketbooks. it's an uphill battle for Dems to overcome MAGA's worst instincts about immigrants and minorities but them's the breaks, as the party that represents immigrants and minorities.

and I'll add one more point - the lipservice that the FedGov and corporations pay to DEI clearly isn't working because it (a) isn't substantively changing outcomes for minorities; and (b) is fueling backlash and resentment from the white straight majority. There needs to be some critical thinking on how to better implement DEI. As an example, I saw a video recently that asked people to name civil rights leaders - the usual names came up. Then the interviewer asked respondents to name any white allies of the civil rights movement, and nobody could name one. Discussing the civil rights movement as a blacks-only movement has proven to be alienating and ineffective. It's just an example, and I don't know what the best way to teach civil rights and white allies would be, but it's something to consider. It might be apologist, or pandering, but it might also be a necessary concession to move the country in the right direction.

[AFM]

It's not insane, that's probably the biggest reason why he lost. Inflation wasn't his fault, or anyone in the US govt really, but the perception was that it was somehow Biden's doing. Blame the insane amount of RW propoganda everywhere online and in the media.
"Trump will fix egg prices". Of course he's done the complete opposite with his tariffs.

yes we are all blameless. It's not because we're a country full of evil people motivated by hate. No it's some simple, reductionist reason that contradicts the actual facts.

people are capable of being racist while also voting in line with their pocketbooks.

The American creed

[closg00]

Are we really doing this?

Doing??!

Posting obvious qanon level nonsense.

You didn’t check the story did you

Watch on YouTube

[montestewart]

yes we are all blameless. It's not because we're a country full of evil people motivated by hate. No it's some simple, reductionist reason that contradicts the actual facts.

people are capable of being racist while also voting in line with their pocketbooks.

The American creed

Sure, but Clinton and Obama got enough of them to win big. I remember a video making the rounds of an apparent racist explaining why he voted for Obama, and it centered on him believing Obama cared about poor people. The economy was doing well, but Biden and Harris messaging leaned on economic indicators like employment and the stock market, and tried to avoid addressing inflation. Wages at the lower levels have been pretty stagnant, and inflation hurts people whose real income is not keeping up. If your personal finances are not doing great, being told the economy is doing great could sound like out-of-touch elitism. It sounded that way to me, and I'm not even poor.

In the lower economic echelons of racism are people who are currently pawns in the billionaire boys club's games. That mixture or racism, xenophobia, anti-intellectualism, etc. is easy to dismiss as a pointless pursuit, but plenty of resentment toward rich people there too. (Wonder what that Rich Men North of Richmond artist thinks of Musk?) Many of Trump's moves will have a disproportionately negative effect on the poorest voters, including Republican or Independent MAGAs. Maybe in 2026 and 2028 disillusionment leads to some MAGA defections. Probably not a lot, but a few percentage points among that group in swing states could make a significant difference.

[AFM]

people are capable of being racist while also voting in line with their pocketbooks.

The American creed

Sure, but Clinton and Obama got enough of them to win big. I remember a video making the rounds of an apparent racist explaining why he voted for Obama, and it centered on him believing Obama cared about poor people. The economy was doing well, but Biden and Harris messaging leaned on economic indicators like employment and the stock market, and tried to avoid addressing inflation. Wages at the lower levels have been pretty stagnant, and inflation hurts people whose real income is not keeping up. If your personal finances are not doing great, being told the economy is doing great could sound like out-of-touch elitism. It sounded that way to me, and I'm not even poor.

In the lower economic echelons of racism are people who are currently pawns in the billionaire boys club's games. That mixture or racism, xenophobia, anti-intellectualism, etc. is easy to dismiss as a pointless pursuit, but plenty of resentment toward rich people there too. (Wonder what that Rich Men North of Richmond artist thinks of Musk?) Many of Trump's moves will have a disproportionately negative effect on the poorest voters, including Republican or Independent MAGAs. Maybe in 2026 and 2028 disillusionment leads to some MAGA defections. Probably not a lot, but a few percentage points among that group in swing states could make a significant difference.

That's more or less what I've been saying, just way less elegantly.

I have a friend who voted for Trump--he's actually a doctor, but honestly he's one of the least intellectual people I've ever met (not the same as being outright stupid). I've known him for 15 years and I can confidently say he probably can't name 10 books.

Why'd he vote for Trump? Just some vague answer about the economy. (He's loaded by the way). After the election and before Trump took office, he was reposting memes on IG saying "the market's up blank percent, bitcoin's up, and Trumps not even in office yet, let that sink in!!!".

Hasn't posted a single political thing since Trump took over. He's probably feeling pretty stupid right now.

[queridiculo]

Doing??!

Posting obvious qanon level nonsense.

You didn’t check the story did you

Watch on YouTube

I live in Germany, I stay informed.

This is old news, happened last year, so the characterization of it "just having happened" is patently false.

Also, please show me any reputable source about the claims made regarding Hegseth's phone number.

I'll wait...

A bit shocking to see how easily people are duped.

[queridiculo]

One dem failure in hindsight was not relentlessly
pounding a fact based narrative that Golfy never
fixed anything in his entire miserable life. And
he always dodges responsibility. The signs that said
"Trump will fix it" were so completely and absurdly
a fairy tale they should have attacked that very
idea 7 days/week a 2x on Sunday. He would fix
egg prices the same way a Lysol injection cures COVID.

To me it's as simple as the Democrats not effectively communicating a plan to the disaffected people in this country.

Orange man bad worked in 2020, but it didn't resonate in 2024 when a lot of people were more interested in a vision of what the Democrats were going to do for them.

For a lot of people when the choice is between the same old old and a roll of the dice, they will prefer the wildcard (I mean, it could by anything right?).

Picking Harris as the candidate after the Biden debacle nicely played into the Republicans hands.

They painted her as more of the same, and she never managed to counter that narrative.

[Zonkerbl]

Clinton was really good at telling stories, and that's what Biden and Harris needed to do better, tell compelling stories that people connected with. Give some examples of how what they're doing impacts people's lives. Inflation was not the problem. People were doing fine. But Fox News succeeded in convincing them they were not. *That's* the issue that needs to be addressed.

This is why I think the Dems really need to lean into acting the heel for GOP voters. Dems are SO TERRIFIED of displeasing anyone, and that's not what USians care about. No matter how racist you are, you will appreciate someone who is sincere, and that's what Trump has in spades. He projects sincerity very, very effectively, because he is a professional con man and you have to be good at lying about how sincere you are to be at all successful in that vocation. But that doesn't mean that doubling down on what people don't like about you will turn people off. Trump doubles down on being a racist jerk all the time and it just makes people love him more. That is his version of integrity, which people LOVE. Yes, Dems embrace CRT, DEI, LGBTQ+. What we need is some heels to march out there and say yes I am a proud beneficiary of DEI. Don't even deny it, just laugh at the conservative tears of all the competent white men who got passed over so you could be hired. I mean really ham it up, because through exaggeration you realize it's FAKE. You get to pretend to be outraged for a second, you *release that negative energy* and then you're ready to get on with your life with that silliness purged out of you. It's extremely healthy and will not convince people to vote against you but instead persuade them that all this fake outrage Fox is ginning up is FAKE. It's part of the game, and you can't win the game if you refuse to PLAY IT.

And then, the heel can be rehabilitated. That is the most fun and interesting part of big time wrestling, is when the face becomes the heel and vice versa. Good guys can become bad guys! Bad guys can become good guys! That's part of the show! USians don't want the heel to persuade them that evil is actually good. They want to see the heel be converted to good through the power of love or whatever nonsense. "I always hated Marco Rubio but then he had my back against the big bad Chinese guy and now I see the light." And they DON'T HAVE TO RENOUNCE CRT. They ONLY HAVE TO LEARN THE "POWER OF LOVE." But it has to go both ways. Good guys have to be consumed by a desire for revenge and turn evil, in order for it to be believable for bad guys to be overcome with gratitude by an act of forgiveness or just general "I helped this person, even though they're bad, because that is what good people do," whatever that is called. Duty? And the GOP knows this is how it works and they will lose popularity if they refuse to play along, but they don't have to because the Dems are absolutely refusing to participate in the show.

Right now the GOP has successfully painted the Dems as the heels. Lean into that. Make Charlotte Clymer the Dem spokesperson unapologetically, generate as many boos as you can get, allow people to get all that evil in their hearts out into the open. That is your role now, now that you've lost EVERYTHING and have nothing else left to lose. Let the narrative play out until everyone gets tired of it and wants to see a heel turn to spice things up, and then the Dems can become the faces for awhile. Which shouldn't be hard, since the GOP is actually evil and just pretending to be good, it does not take an all star cast of writers to make the "discovery" that the GOP are all in fact nazis believable. Right now it's impossible because of where we are in the kayfabe narrative - the GOP are the good guys and we're supposed to believe them no matter what lies they tell, and any attempt to tell truth about them is met with boos. You have to let the narrative play out, but that can't happen if the dems refuse to play along.

[Zonkerbl]

Clinton was really good at telling stories, and that's what Biden and Harris needed to do better, tell compelling stories that people connected with. Give some examples of how what they're doing impacts people's lives. Inflation was not the problem. People were doing fine. But Fox News succeeded in convincing them they were not. *That's* the issue that needs to be addressed.

Well, also, people are *not* doing fine. All the economic growth in this country has been concentrated in the hands of the top 20% since Reagan. When the economic numbers come out showing GDP growth is up, incomes are up, there's a good two thirds of the country that that just doesn't apply to. So "inflation" is a metaphor for "you keep saying everything is getting better but for me it's not." And the Dems are very committed to not addressing that issue at all. Trump somehow, miraculously, being the amazing snake oil salesman that he is, convinced people that he, the lying, failed, alleged "billionaire," is on their side. And by refusing to acknowledge that yes, the large majority of this country has exactly the same real income it had in 1980, and that positive economic indicators reflect only the success of the college educated "elites" in charge of the DNC, the Dems basically surrendered the point. It's no surprise they're losing now.

[doclinkin]

I don’t think it’s any of that. I think it’s that there is a powerful media engine constantly working to counteract fact and promote disinformation. That fear works better than hope. That in the absence of charismatic leadership people will vote to scapegoat somebody. But ultimately the powerful stakeholders only need to make the results look plausible, and otherwise they will game the system and outright cheat to prevent any check or rebalancing of power. Now they’ve been so successful that they don’t even need the ‘plausible’ part.

[Fairview4Life]

All the economic growth in this country has been concentrated in the hands of the top 20% since Reagan.

Incomes were up above inflation for the bottom 20%, during Biden's term. People don't vote for Trump because of economic reasons.