What Should the Wizards Should Do with the 5th Pick?

[miller31time]

So I wouldn't be surprised to see a deal like this on draft night:

Wiz trade: Etan, Deshawn, #5
Pistons trade: Rip, #15

It doesn't solve our longterm tax issues, but provides a huge talent upgrade and still leaves us with pieces to unload songaila if we want to.

Just for the heck of it, and because I love the player comparison function on B-R, I ran a comparison of Ray Allen through two seasons ago (before he was traded to Boston) and Rip through this year.

CHeck it out here:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/ ... i?id=tdbEK

They're very similar, though Ray's PER is well higher, due almost all to the 3pt prowess. The difference seems to be "fairly" represented in the compensation though, as Ray made $16M last season and Rip's due $11M next yr. Rip's also probably the better defender.

Rip's not as good as Allen, but I don't think we'd need him to be. I think he'd make a huge difference here.

Yup, I couldn't agree more.

I'd also hope that a trade for Hamilton is followed with a trade that would net us a more defensive-oriented power forward.

[barelyawake]

The reason I think that Tay is more valuable to us than Rip (not to mention that Wallace is the aforementioned defensive power forward) is because Prince can cover both the perimeter and swing to help defend (thus covering the drive). Both he and Dom can plug into a variety of line-ups and suddenly make those line-ups defensive monsters (even with AJ on them). Detriot isn't resigning Wallace. Wallace wants 8 million (above the MLE), for probably two years.Thus, a sign and trade of Wallace for Etan and one of our youth helps all three parties (and we get a defensive PF vet cheaply). Between our youth, expiring contracts, and pick (not to mention future picks if needed), I believe we can combine Detroit's defense with our offense. Really, Harden and Blatche for Prince is reasonable, if not overpaying. And really, it would only take Abe paying the tax an extra year (MAYBE two).

[queridiculo]

Sign me up, welcome back to D.C. RIP.

[Severn Hoos]

OK, I feel like I'm in full-tilt LyricalRico Mad Scientist mode, so here goes:

We know that Ernie wants to pick up a veteran or two instead of simply adding more "potential." Someone who can mesh with the Big 3 - I mean Big 4 - and earn the respect of vets and youngsters alike in the locker room. Problem is, finding that perfect fit AND being able to deal for him is a tricky proposition. Plus, there are a lot of guys in this draft that I (and others here) think will be good role players sooner rather than later, and have a chance to be solid starters down the road. I'd hate to see some of those guys doing well 3 years from now while the guy we traded for (Vince? Really?) is riding off into the sunset after 3 more 44-win seasons.

So is there a way to get a veteran contributor AND still take a shot at a younger player to grow with the team for the future?

I know you guys will think I'm crazy, but I'm going to bring up Michael Redd again. Yes, I know he plays no defense. And yes, I know he's coming off an injury and will be 30 by Opening Night. And makes an insane amount of money. But the Bucks are concerned about the Luxury Tax/Salary Cap, and they've got to know that Redd isn't the long-term answer at SG any more. Their board seems split on whether to keep him, with many looking to move him while they can.

I could see them having interest in Hill - seems like a good fit next to Bogut in terms of skills & strengths. Obviously, they aren't getting Hill at #10. Would they be interested in moving up?

#5, Etan, Stevenson, & Songaila for #10 & Redd?

The deal lets them get their high-upside PF to play next to Bogut, and shaves half of Redd's deal for 2010 with Etan's expiring. Wizards get their vet contributor and still take a blue chipper (Blair?) at #10. It's probably not the best deal the Bucks could get, but I'd have to think they'd consider it.

For the Wiz, I think Redd would be just about as good a fit as any on offense. He had no problem deferring in the Olympics, and his spot-up game would fit better (IMO) than other guys who are more ball-dominant such as VC. And if Arenas is serious about being more of a "true PG," then a reliable shooter would be a great outlet at the end of some of those drives to the hoop.

Obviously, defense would be a major issue, with four relatively porous starters in GA, CB, AJ, and Redd. Maybe Flip's super secret zone concoctions could help mask some of that - along with a mix-n-match approach that gets minutes for McGuire and Crittenton on the perimeter.

It looks like Redd has 2 more years left, so it'd be somewhat cap-neutral in year 1 and adds even more salary in year 2 (replacing Etan's expiring). But if Abe is really serious about the Tax, maybe he considers it. We know Ernie loves Redd from their Milwaukee days.

I'm not entirely sold myself, but if EG is bound and determined to get a veteran, we could do a lot worse. And still being able to pick one of Blair/Curry/Henderson/Johnson/Holiday makes it worthwhile if you ask me.

So whaddaya say, Ruz? Do the Bucks consider it?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

CCJ and closg00, Novak, Fazekas, Bellinelli, Rendrix, etc., may all have good reasons for not being more productive -- stupid coaches, bad player development, etc.

But the fact is that they're not more productive, whereas Millsap -- playing behind an all-star -- is. Sessions, playing behind Mo Williams, did show enough last year for the Bucks to ship Mo o ut of town.

It's up to the player do what they have to make sure they stick. Everything else is just an excuse.

fisher, I just happen to envision a few things a lot faster than they come to fruition.

I know what I was saying about Sessions when every body here said he wasn't worth it.

I liked Azubuike after a few D-League games.

What I'm saying right now is Blair is better than Millsap. Millsap is, as I predicted a couple years ago, good enough to make Boozer expendable. Certainly worth the #5 in the draft. Look at the production of last year's #5, Kevin Love. I think Blair's a far better defender than Love. He's just as good or better as a rebounder.

What people are doing is taking the mocks as golden. Saying Blair's not worth a 5th because he's projected 10th-25th or so is a specious argument that presupposes the mocks are correct.

I'm with ALL OF YOU who say get Blair if you can trade down for him. Maximize the #5.

I just happen to feel GET BLAIR EVEN AT 5 makes a ton of sense. You will NOT BE OVERPAYING HIM BECAUSE HE'S THAT GOOD.

The only thing I cannot argue with are 2 ACLs in HS and his past weight.

However, I'm think solely short term (next 2 years) with this current set of Wizards. Blair will come in and provide a lot to whichever team drafts him.

[WizarDynasty]

Actually, I'm close to saying blow-up the team. And by that I mean PUSH HARD NOW, and if it doesn't work, fall flat on our faces. Which means I think we should bring in at least two new vets (trading away youth for old). And I'd target Bosh; Charlotte (Diaw, Bell, Okafor); San An (Bowen, Gin, Kurt) and Detroit (Wallace, Rip, Prince). I think we have enough to get both Wallace (s&t) and Prince -- that is assuming Wallace is ok with the history of both our team and our new coach (and those are big, big ifs). Sign and trade of Wallace would be cheap (probably only take Young and Etan). Then, get Prince as well (for some combo of youth and/or our pick). I'm certain that Harden, Blatche and Young would get us those two -- if it came to that.

You end up with (roughly):

Arenas/Marbury/Crit
Caron/Dom/Arenas
Prince/AJ/Caron
Wallace/AJ/McGee
Haywood/McGee/Wallace

I only start Wallace for rotational purposes. There are a million different line-ups you can run with that team. AJ would get starter mins, but his defense would be hidden by Prince, Dom, Wallace and Haywood. Yeah, it's expensive as hell -- and if Abe REALLY wants a championship, it'll cost money. Yeah, it's trading young for old. And I'll certainly hear, "Wallace is washed up." Or even, "Blatche is better than Wallace in his current form" -- which disregards the refs; vet leadership; knowledge of how to win playing defense in a championship game; etc. I'll simply say, we better start looking at the All-Defensive team charts and targeting those people -- we should have been all along.

I want to push now (I mean REALLY push, not halfway), and get to rebuilding if we fail. And I'll tell you, with every season it becomes more obvious that the modern NBA is about the refs knowing the names of the players. The above line-up has names and it works on paper. If Prince and LeBron go for a ball, the refs will actually have to think about who to call the foul on (where as Blatche would get the foul, period).

Ask me tomorrow, I'll change my mind. Currently, I'm adamant that we need names on our team. If it were anyone but Howard, LeBron would have gotten a foul (not a jumpball). Blatche would not have gotten the jumpball call (even if it were the right one). Sorry to say, that's how I feel about the NBA lately.

I agree Blatche wouldn't have gotten that call which would lead to another wasted 82 game season even if we deserved the win.

[miller31time]

I really have no interest in Michael Redd whatsoever. With Rip Hamilton, you at least get above-average defense along with impressive offensive capabilities.

Redd is an awful defender and we simply can't add another defensive liability to our squad.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

OK, I feel like I'm in full-tilt LyricalRico Mad Scientist mode, so here goes:

We know that Ernie wants to pick up a veteran or two instead of simply adding more "potential." Someone who can mesh with the Big 3 - I mean Big 4 - and earn the respect of vets and youngsters alike in the locker room. Problem is, finding that perfect fit AND being able to deal for him is a tricky proposition. Plus, there are a lot of guys in this draft that I (and others here) think will be good role players sooner rather than later, and have a chance to be solid starters down the road. I'd hate to see some of those guys doing well 3 years from now while the guy we traded for (Vince? Really?) is riding off into the sunset after 3 more 44-win seasons.

So is there a way to get a veteran contributor AND still take a shot at a younger player to grow with the team for the future?

I know you guys will think I'm crazy, but I'm going to bring up Michael Redd again. Yes, I know he plays no defense. And yes, I know he's coming off an injury and will be 30 by Opening Night. And makes an insane amount of money. But the Bucks are concerned about the Luxury Tax/Salary Cap, and they've got to know that Redd isn't the long-term answer at SG any more. Their board seems split on whether to keep him, with many looking to move him while they can.

I could see them having interest in Hill - seems like a good fit next to Bogut in terms of skills & strengths. Obviously, they aren't getting Hill at #10. Would they be interested in moving up?

#5, Etan, Stevenson, & Songaila for #10 & Redd?

The deal lets them get their high-upside PF to play next to Bogut, and shaves half of Redd's deal for 2010 with Etan's expiring. Wizards get their vet contributor and still take a blue chipper (Blair?) at #10. It's probably not the best deal the Bucks could get, but I'd have to think they'd consider it.

For the Wiz, I think Redd would be just about as good a fit as any on offense. He had no problem deferring in the Olympics, and his spot-up game would fit better (IMO) than other guys who are more ball-dominant such as VC. And if Arenas is serious about being more of a "true PG," then a reliable shooter would be a great outlet at the end of some of those drives to the hoop.

Obviously, defense would be a major issue, with four relatively porous starters in GA, CB, AJ, and Redd. Maybe Flip's super secret zone concoctions could help mask some of that - along with a mix-n-match approach that gets minutes for McGuire and Crittenton on the perimeter.

It looks like Redd has 2 more years left, so it'd be somewhat cap-neutral in year 1 and adds even more salary in year 2 (replacing Etan's expiring). But if Abe is really serious about the Tax, maybe he considers it. We know Ernie loves Redd from their Milwaukee days.

I'm not entirely sold myself, but if EG is bound and determined to get a veteran, we could do a lot worse. And still being able to pick one of Blair/Curry/Henderson/Johnson/Holiday makes it worthwhile if you ask me.

So whaddaya say, Ruz? Do the Bucks consider it?

I'm for any trade of the 5 that brings in Carter, Rip, Prince, OR Redd if that's all the Wizards have to do is give up bad players and drop down 10 or so spots to #15.

I just don't see those other teams going for the scenarios proposed.

I love the ideas earlier proposed for getting Barbosa or Childress for a lot less, and still be in the draft to get a Blair/Curry type player.

[queridiculo]

So I wouldn't be surprised to see a deal like this on draft night:

Wiz trade: Etan, Deshawn, #5
Pistons trade: Rip, #15

I can see why Etan, but I just don't see them motivated by the prospect of adding Deshawn's 2 year contract.

Blatche, Etan and #5 for Rip and #15 might be more realistic.

[AgentOvechkin08]

So I wouldn't be surprised to see a deal like this on draft night:

Wiz trade: Etan, Deshawn, #5
Pistons trade: Rip, #15

I can see why Etan, but I just don't see them motivated by the prospect of adding Deshawn's 2 year contract.

Blatche, Etan and #5 for Rip and #15 might be more realistic.

We have to unload one of our guards though.

If we added rip in your trade

Guards: Stevenson, Arenas, Critt, Rip, James, Young

Stevenson or james have to go

[fishercob]

Sev, Redd is a more expensive, less productive Hamilton. I'd much rather go after rip.

I can see why Etan, but I just don't see them motivated by the prospect of adding Deshawn's 2 year contract.

Blatche, Etan and #5 for Rip and #15 might be more realistic.

Rip's signed for another 4 years. Taking Etan and Deshawn represents a huge financial savings for them and they're moving up into the high lottery. Keep in mind that Seattle didn't get any expirings for Ray Allen -- all they got was a year of salary relief (Wally expired a year earlier than Ray). No way the Wiz should have to throw in Blatche.

CCJ, I proposed the Barbosa and Chill deals this summer, so I will take your approval as a complement.

[LyricalRico]

I can see why Etan, but I just don't see them motivated by the prospect of adding Deshawn's 2 year contract.

Blatche, Etan and #5 for Rip and #15 might be more realistic.

Rip's signed for another 4 years. Taking Etan and Deshawn represents a huge financial savings for them and they're moving up into the high lottery. Keep in mind that Seattle didn't get any expirings for Ray Allen -- all they got was a year of salary relief (Wally expired a year earlier than Ray). No way the Wiz should have to throw in Blatche.

You're right about the finances, but the Pistons aren't like Seattle was when they gave up Allen. Detroit has three very good starters in Stuckey/Rip/Prince and $20M to play with to improve the team. With the right moves, they can be a contender again next season. I was probably the first to post #5-for-Rip trade ideas but the more I think about it, I don't see them making any moves like that until they've been able to see what they can get out of free agency.

[WizarDynasty]

AFter careful thinking, wizards are never going anywhere until they can get a post player that forces teh defense to double team, otherwise the offense has to work to hard to create a mismatch. The veteran this team needs more than a sg is a post player than can force double teams on offense. Is there a player available capable of this? Zach Randolph, Chris Kaman, Amare, Shaq, David West, Dirk, Gasol, Howard, MIng, Duncan, Brand, Bosh, Aldridge, Hilario, Luis Scola, Odom, Garnett, Okafur, Speights, Boozer, --basically history shows taht any team that has gone deep in the playoffs has a player that forces a double team on offense...basically a bigman that averages more than 15 points a game and plays with his back to basket.
That ideally is what we would want to trade the 5th pick for. No one in our front court forces double teams on offense...caron..nope..jamison..nope...haywood..nope...blatche...nope...mcgee..nope...songalia..nope. I don't see us winning a championship or getting out the second round without this player.

[LyricalRico]

Zach Randolph, Chris Kaman

<snip>

That ideally is what we would want to trade the 5th pick for.

Not to mention that two of the other guys you mentioned (Amare and David West) don't actually play with their backs to the basket. They are primarily face-up bigs.

[WizarDynasty]

Zach Randolph, Chris Kaman

<snip>

That ideally is what we would want to trade the 5th pick for.

Not to mention that two of the other guys you mentioned (Amare and David West) don't actually play with their backs to the basket. They are primarily face-up bigs.

The whole point is getting a front court player that forces the defense to double...that's teh only question you need to ask. I think you are smart enough to fill in the list for front court players that force teh defense to double if they are in the post. The wizards don't have one and that is this teams number one problem. I figure can answer the question on your own...what veteran bigs (or front court player) in the league or (draft) forces the defense to double team? Whatever your answer is, that's a player that's worth the 5th pick.
Hopefully this help people think where they need to be thinking instead of being lost at sg.

[AgentOvechkin08]

Yea so lets hope to trade the 5th pick for an all star big man who forces double teams....i dont think Dwight Howard is going to be on the block....and Zach Randolph, Chris Kaman....come on

Edit: Blake Griffin has good potential to be that type of player, but I dont know how we can move from 5 to 1...

Any realistic ideas anyone?

[WizarDynasty]

Yea so lets hope to trade the 5th pick for an all star big man who forces double teams....i dont think Dwight Howard is going to be on the block....and Zach Randolph, Chris Kaman....come on

Regardless as to who is going on the block or not..the wiz need a front court player that causes teh defense to double team. I could care less if the front court player is an allstar or not.

[LyricalRico]

^ If a big is a PF/C and draws double teams in the post, chances are he's not available - even for #5 pick. That's why the big letdown after not winning the lottery. There's pretty much nobody on the open market who's going to give us what Griffin would have. (Notice I said "open market". I'm not saying the guys don't exist, just that nobody's offering them to us. Guys like Bosh and Stoudamire can be had but they aren't guys you automatically double IMO.)

[WizarDynasty]

^ If a big is a PF/C and draws double teams in the post, chances are he's not available - even for #5 pick. That's why the big letdown after not winning the lottery. There's pretty much nobody on the open market who's going to give us what Griffin would have. (Notice I said "open market". I'm not saying the guys don't exist, just that nobody's offering them to us. Guys like Bosh and Stoudamire can be had but they aren't guys you automatically double IMO.)

a front court player is consider a sf/pf/ or center.

Carmelo Anthony is a front court player that draws double teams when he posts up. Lebron James draws double teams when he post up on the block against most s/f's. So again, a front court player that regularly.. draws double teams when he posts up on the block.

[pancakes3]

technically speaking, a sf plays on the "wing". PF/C are traditionally the "front court" positions. Lebron and 'Melo rarely post up - instead they put their moves on with their face to the basket and are doubled when they dribble/penetrate. in fact, kobe as a guard posts up way more than either 'melo and lebron. this is effective because you can't recover/rotate from doubling a perimeter player as easily as a post player (more ground to make up) so Kobe is guaranteed a 1-on-1 matchup.

again - nobody on this board questions bringing in a low post player that commands a double team. in fact, if you'll notice "Chris Bosh" has been tossed around roughly 40,000 times in the last 9 months. Why Chris Bosh? Because he's talented. More importantly he's available. Listing good post players: Dwight, Duncan, Aldridge, etc. is an insult to this board's intelligence. Listing fringe players like Kaman, Speights, and David West insults your own intelligence.

Most posters on this board know their basketball. They take offense when they come here and expect thoughtful banter and find things like "Antawn Jamison is not as good of a ball player as Kevin Garnett. We should trade our #5 pick for a player like Kevin Garnett. We cannot win unless we have a defensive player of the year big man like Kevin Garnett." So again, i implore the half-baked posters to expand their thoughts past simple sentences and expand into complex ones - the kind that have two clauses. you present a fact, and then you ELABORATE ON IT.

*elaborate doesn't mean repeat. it means building on it and hopefully coming out with something thoughtful and not painfully obvious.