Championship: why not, or how. Strategy, tactics, best hopes

[nate33]

Oden and Duhwhite can both be UFA's in the summer o 2012. If you can get 1 of them healthy plus a Thad Young (or someone like him) minus Gil and Hiney and Yi plus 2 more years of draft picks and what the Wiz have already... that's a championship contender that can beat Miami. The picks don't even have to be exceptional - just solid. Is it really that far-fetched to think we have a decent shot at getting one of Oden or Howard?

It'll be tough to get Oden. He's a RFA in 2011 but Portland's deep-pocketed owner is likely to match any offer. Oden's only path to unrestricted free agency in 2012 would be to take the $8,788,681 qualifying offer in 2011/12 rather than whatever long term contract is offered by Portland or others. With his injury history, I don't think that's likely (unless, of course, all the contract offers in 2011 are suck).

I do think there's a small chance of getting Howard. I can imagine a scenario where Orlando's role players show no improvement over the next two years and it become evident that Orlando has no chance at a title. Dwight might be interested in jumping ship under those circumstances. We'd be the perfect place to land with a young run-and-gun system, an elite PG, and a PF who can spread the floor or post up as needed. We could even sweeten the pot for Orlando by offering McGee in a double S&T.

[AceDegenerate]

Oden and Duhwhite can both be UFA's in the summer o 2012. If you can get 1 of them healthy plus a Thad Young (or someone like him) minus Gil and Hiney and Yi plus 2 more years of draft picks and what the Wiz have already... that's a championship contender that can beat Miami. The picks don't even have to be exceptional - just solid. Is it really that far-fetched to think we have a decent shot at getting one of Oden or Howard?

Yes it really is that far fetched, WAY More far fetched than the Wizards competing with Arenas.

Dwight Howard IS NOT coming to D.C. There is absolutely no reason to even think he would leave his current team, much less to make a ridiculous proposition that he would come to the Wizards.

Next, Greg Oden sucks. He has not done a thing but get injured in the NBA, JaVale McGee has shown more than Greg Oden and this is who you want to replace Arenas' production? Yeah o-k.

[nate33]

Next, Greg Oden sucks. He has not done a thing but get injured in the NBA, JaVale McGee has shown more than Greg Oden.

You are wrong about this. Obviously injuries are a major concern, but he doesn't suck. Oden was a pure beast when he was healthy. Here are Oden's per-36 number over the last two seasons:

Code: Select all

oden,greg  PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO eFG%  TS%  PER
2009-10   17.8 13.6  1.4  0.6  3.7  3.0 .605 .647 23.4
2008-09   15.8 12.5  0.9  0.7  2.1  2.6 .565 .600 18.3

Unfortunately, he only played 24 minutes a game over 21 games last year, and 22 minutes a game over 60 games the year before.

[Ruzious]

Oden and Duhwhite can both be UFA's in the summer o 2012. If you can get 1 of them healthy plus a Thad Young (or someone like him) minus Gil and Hiney and Yi plus 2 more years of draft picks and what the Wiz have already... that's a championship contender that can beat Miami. The picks don't even have to be exceptional - just solid. Is it really that far-fetched to think we have a decent shot at getting one of Oden or Howard?

Yes it really is that far fetched, WAY More far fetched than the Wizards competing with Arenas.

Dwight Howard IS NOT coming to D.C. There is absolutely no reason to even think he would leave his current team, much less to make a ridiculous proposition that he would come to the Wizards.

Next, Greg Oden sucks. He has not done a thing but get injured in the NBA, JaVale McGee has shown more than Greg Oden and this is who you want to replace Arenas' production? Yeah o-k.

Oden just has to be healthy. When he's played, he's been outstanding - far better than Javale. He had a 23.3 PER. Per 40 minutes pace adjusted he averaged 14.9 rebounds, 4.0 blocks, and 19.5 points while shooting over 60%, and providing a defensive presence. That's a dominant big man.

Why would Howard prefer Washington over Orlando? Look at Orlando's roster other than him? Do you see an above average starter there - or anyone who projects to be an above average starter in 2 years? Washington's going to have one of the best - if not the best PG in the NBA, and excellent front court players to go with him. And if they can use their resources wisely, they can get a Thad Young to go with them - making them a dominant big man away from a championship contender.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

If Oden, Batum, and Roy are all healthy this season don't be surprised if Portland unseats the Lakers.

[Ruzious]

If Oden, Batum, and Roy are all healthy this season don't be surprised if Portland unseats the Lakers.

That's an awfully impressive DEFENSIVE trio - not to mention Camby and the kid Matthews looked great defensively, and they shouldn't have many offensive problems. It doesn't hurt to have Aldridge there. If you don't have defense, you're not going anywhere in the playoffs. Phoenix is your absolute upside.

[Kanyewest]

If Oden, Batum, and Roy are all healthy this season don't be surprised if Portland unseats the Lakers.

That's an awfully impressive DEFENSIVE trio - not to mention Camby and the kid Matthews looked great defensively, and they shouldn't have many offensive problems. It doesn't hurt to have Aldridge there. If you don't have defense, you're not going anywhere in the playoffs. Phoenix is your absolute upside.

Phoenix could have won- (Nash's bloody nose + game 3 being the worst officiated playoff game, and Amare and Diaw's suspension in game 5 in 2007). Phoenix's real downfall was not having a bench. Again, luck has a lot to do with who advances in the postseason.


D'Antoni didn't play his bench at all in the regular season and playoffs which cost them. Phoenix has fixed that problem under Gentry with that super bench but it's going to be hard to keep their dream alive without Amare. Imagine if Phoenix was a big market team that didn't sell off their picks for cash (Luol Deng, Rajon Rondo) or ponied up the money to keep Joe Johnson. It could be a different story.

Dallas also came awfully close as well (although they did improve their defense to be respectable but not elite), but they squandered a double digit lead in game 3 in Miami. Dwayne Wade getting to the line 80 times a game also hurt them.

[Dat2U]

The Oden talk is nice but not realistic. Only way Portland is willing to deal him if he suffers through yet another serious injury and at that point I wouldn't touch him because he'd be damaged goods.

I honestly don't know if you can win a championship with a core roster as we currently have. That's why I'd prefer to sit, wait & let everything play out. See how Gil & Wall mesh togther. See what further steps Blatche & McGee take in their development. See what Seraphin & possibly Booker can bring to the table. If things go pretty well, then I'd look at trying to add the additional pieces we'll likely need at SF & C to make it work.

Building a championship contender:

1. A transecendent talent - We all hope Wall can get to this level. I believe he can in a few years. We definitely need our own Kobe, LeBron or Wade. Wall is the key. Arenas was never a transcendent talent, neither are guys like Bosh or Amar'e.

2. A low post defender/rebounder - A definite need. However we don't need a 20/10 guy, defensive boards & contesting shots are far more important. A Perkins/Haywood type would do fine. Two above average defenders at both PF & C would be optimal. That's why a sieve like Jamison would never work, Blatche's D must improve and McGee is probably more of a supersub off the bench than a starter.

3. Clutch play - Wall showed this trait in college. Arenas established himself as one of the better clutch players in his prime. History shows us having a Horry, Fisher or Kerr to knock down big shots doesn't hurt.

4. A coach that can manage egos - if you have the talent to compete for a title, you'll also have the massive egos to go along with it. I'm not sure Flip is the right guy for the job. But we have time to figure that out. This is Phil Jackson's best attribute and also one of Pat Riley's biggest strengths.

5. Offensive balance/synergy - Can't live on the jumpshot alone. You need low post scoring however it doesn't have to come from some pure post player that gets you 20/10 every night. It's great to have that but your best interior scorers can be your perimeter players. Wall will be our best low post scorer b/c he'll attack the rim, finish or get to the line. Arenas was the same way in his prime. The MJ/Pippen Bulls were a great example of this.

Things like having that true low post big that can get you 20, having a deep bench or perimeter defense are overrated IMO. The Lakers won two titles in a row with Derek Fisher defending PGs and he was pretty much a turnstile on D. Fisher allowed penetration, but the Lakers bigs consistently closed the paint.

[montestewart]

If Oden, Batum, and Roy are all healthy this season don't be surprised if Portland unseats the Lakers.

I thought they might do it last year (them or the Spurs). Considering the issues they had to deal with, they still won 50 games.

[Kanyewest]

Arenas was never a transcendent talent, neither are guys like Bosh or Amar'e.

I would say Arenas was pretty close to it though. "No one can guard him, you can only hope to contain him"- LeBron James, when describing Arenas's game. Arenas averaged 35 ppg against one of the better defense in Cleveland back in 2006. He could finish at the rim, mid range, and from three. I think Arenas simply didn't put together flasy dunks without a trampoline like Kobe, Wade, and James. But a lack of effort/ability on the defensive end hurt him- simply not a two way player like LeBron or Kobe but the talent was there IMO.

I still have to wonder what that healthy Gilbert Arenas would have done with a legit low post player like Shaq- a big reason why Kobe and Wade got their rings in the first place, or a Hall of Fame coach like Phil Jackson or Pat Riley. Even Pau Gasol is on another level than Jamison. There's no doubt that Kobe is a great player but he has a lot of help around him; yes Arenas had it offensively, but not on the defensive end.

Of course part of being a great player is staying healthy. Guys like Oden, Hardaway, and Hill aren't considered great even though they had immense talent. But you have to wonder what if...

[Ruzious]

Oden and Duhwhite can both be UFA's in the summer o 2012. If you can get 1 of them healthy plus a Thad Young (or someone like him) minus Gil and Hiney and Yi plus 2 more years of draft picks and what the Wiz have already... that's a championship contender that can beat Miami. The picks don't even have to be exceptional - just solid. Is it really that far-fetched to think we have a decent shot at getting one of Oden or Howard?

It'll be tough to get Oden. He's a RFA in 2011 but Portland's deep-pocketed owner is likely to match any offer. Oden's only path to unrestricted free agency in 2012 would be to take the $8,788,681 qualifying offer in 2011/12 rather than whatever long term contract is offered by Portland or others. With his injury history, I don't think that's likely (unless, of course, all the contract offers in 2011 are suck).

I do think there's a small chance of getting Howard. I can imagine a scenario where Orlando's role players show no improvement over the next two years and it become evident that Orlando has no chance at a title. Dwight might be interested in jumping ship under those circumstances. We'd be the perfect place to land with a young run-and-gun system, an elite PG, and a PF who can spread the floor or post up as needed. We could even sweeten the pot for Orlando by offering McGee in a double S&T.

I think there's a chance that Oden does sign the 1 year deal in 2011 - just so he can become unrestricted in 2012. If he has another injury-plagued season this season, he's not likely to get a huge contract. Realizing that he'd have a chance to get a max contract in 2012 if he has a big year in 2011/2012, he doesn't tie himself up to a multi-year contract in 2011.

[DCZards]

Oden and Duhwhite can both be UFA's in the summer o 2012. If you can get 1 of them healthy plus a Thad Young (or someone like him) minus Gil and Hiney and Yi plus 2 more years of draft picks and what the Wiz have already... that's a championship contender that can beat Miami. The picks don't even have to be exceptional - just solid. Is it really that far-fetched to think we have a decent shot at getting one of Oden or Howard?

Man, you guys are persistent. Doc said it well. Let's take seriously what we have rather than scheme up these unknown futures. With our backcourt, the zards are already better than these dream teams with gasol, batum, t. young, verajo, oden, howard, etc....all "futures" based on hope and trading an all-pro guard away. Let's win now, dammit.

[Zonkerbl]

Yeah, if Gil comes back and plays the way we had hoped, then the only thing in between us and the championship is McGee's development, a solid three point shooting, defense playing three (like Posey was for the Celtics), a decent bench, and friendly whistles from the refs.

Personally I think Stern, for all his talk about how much he loved Pollin, hated the wizards and their cheap skate ways. I mean if I was him, I would think that the low class organizational style damaged the NBA image and I would never, ever let them win. And I can't help but look back at all the bogus charging calls called on Gilbert and the crazy calls favoring LeBron, and wonder if Stern hadn't whispered something in the refs ears. Now here comes Leonsis, a classy upbeat guy who is bringing zing and excitement to the franchise and MAGICALLY - poof! - we get the #1 pick. I wouldn't be terribly surprised if the zards make it to the playoffs with the magic marketing machine of the Great Wall, some ref calls start to mysteriously go our way. With the refs on your side, anything can happen. Look at the bulls run, do you really think they would have gotten six championships without Jordan getting an extra five points of cheap foul calls a game?

[JonathanJoseph]

Arenas was never a transcendent talent, neither are guys like Bosh or Amar'e.

I would say Arenas was pretty close to it though. "No one can guard him, you can only hope to contain him"- LeBron James, when describing Arenas's game. Arenas averaged 35 ppg against one of the better defense in Cleveland back in 2006. He could finish at the rim, mid range, and from three. I think Arenas simply didn't put together flasy dunks without a trampoline like Kobe, Wade, and James. But a lack of effort/ability on the defensive end hurt him- simply not a two way player like LeBron or Kobe but the talent was there IMO.

I still have to wonder what that healthy Gilbert Arenas would have done with a legit low post player like Shaq- a big reason why Kobe and Wade got their rings in the first place, or a Hall of Fame coach like Phil Jackson or Pat Riley. Even Pau Gasol is on another level than Jamison. There's no doubt that Kobe is a great player but he has a lot of help around him; yes Arenas had it offensively, but not on the defensive end.

Of course part of being a great player is staying healthy. Guys like Oden, Hardaway, and Hill aren't considered great even though they had immense talent. But you have to wonder what if...

I agree, people seem to forget the trajectory Arenas was on. If Gilbert is healthy and returns to form, that contract isn't anywhere near as bad as people are making it out to be.

But to your point about Arenas never playing with a legit post player, true. But as I said in the other thread, what about Arenas playing with a real good PG? The closest thing to a post player Arenas has played with is Jamison, and the best PG Arenas has played with is Antonio Daniels. With an elite PG to set him up in Wall, and a legit post game from Blatche, Arenas will get better looks this year than he's ever had before. And if any of these guys are getting good looks it means the defense is rotating. If Arenas gets into the lane, defenses better not help off of Javale McGee.

I think Flip is giddy at the toys he has to play with.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Yeah, if Gil comes back and plays the way we had hoped, then the only thing in between us and the championship is McGee's development, a solid three point shooting, defense playing three (like Posey was for the Celtics), a decent bench, and friendly whistles from the refs.

Personally I think Stern, for all his talk about how much he loved Pollin, hated the wizards and their cheap skate ways. I mean if I was him, I would think that the low class organizational style damaged the NBA image and I would never, ever let them win. And I can't help but look back at all the bogus charging calls called on Gilbert and the crazy calls favoring LeBron, and wonder if Stern hadn't whispered something in the refs ears. Now here comes Leonsis, a classy upbeat guy who is bringing zing and excitement to the franchise and MAGICALLY - poof! - we get the #1 pick. I wouldn't be terribly surprised if the zards make it to the playoffs with the magic marketing machine of the Great Wall, some ref calls start to mysteriously go our way. With the refs on your side, anything can happen. Look at the bulls run, do you really think they would have gotten six championships without Jordan getting an extra five points of cheap foul calls a game?

If the Wizards made the playoffs with Arenas, I could John Wall and Gil getting calls. This will be an exciting, media-friendly team.

Lebron is turning off a good many fans. There will be a backlash around the league with what Miami did. I think collectively, Lebron and Dwyane Wade cannot continue to get as much favorable calls, simply because they're on the same team now. They both can't get the same proportion of star calls night in night out. What will likely happen is both get called for fouls while trying to defend that they never got before with others to carry their slack. They also won't be given all the benefit of a doubt on offense, either. The rest of the league wants that team to fail.

Maybe Washington comes out of nowhere this season and Wall becomes a media darling. And if he plays like the Hibachi, Gilbert can do a complete 180 image-wise. All he has to do is drop numbers and have the team win while maintain a low profile. Team player Gil that just wants to win games, plus winner John Wall--and the Wizards will be the ones getting calls.

I could see it. With the refs anything is possible.

[pancakes3]

well, they won't get as many calls simply because there's only 1 basketball.

also, winning cures ALL. in the locker room, in the media's eyes, everywhere. Look at the 180 that Kobe got. Stephen A Smith is definitely no longer "disgusted" "embarrassed" or "livid" at his fellow philly native.

i think we actually have a puncher's chance at the heat simply because at their weakest position, we've got arguably the FASTEST guy in the league. We saw how damaging Rondo became. Wall's quickness and Gil's range definitely makes us competitive.

we won't win a championship though, no matter how slick Wall gets. You need boarders. At worst a horace grant-level rebounder. blatche and mcgee just don't cut it in my opinion.

[Kanyewest]

well, they won't get as many calls simply because there's only 1 basketball.

Man I hope that's the case in Miami as well.

[Ruzious]

Yeah, if Gil comes back and plays the way we had hoped, then the only thing in between us and the championship is McGee's development, a solid three point shooting, defense playing three (like Posey was for the Celtics), a decent bench, and friendly whistles from the refs.

More important than any of those things you mentioned are interior defense and rebounding. We don't have it - unless Seraphin turns into a stud. Cross fingers.

[gesa2]

Cross fingers.

and

[leswizards]

I could've dragged this one out, but for now I'll keep it short and sweet...

1) Keep Everyone (Blatche, McGee, Arenas)
2) Perry Jones
3) Championship

How do you get Perry Jones if you keep everyone? I don't see how it is possible. If you had it as:

1) Keep Wall, Blatche, McGee, Seraphin, Booker and whoever the second round pick was; while trading everyone else at the trade deadline.
2) Package the Wizards first with all the assets acquired at the trade deadline to get Perry Jones and a SG who has Gil's upside but is young and far from being at Gil's prime.
3) Championship

then, I would be in complete agreement with you.

However, since IMO, there are only 2 ways if they keep everybody that they will be in a position to get Perry Jones , I don't see how that strategy leads to a championship. The first path to getting Perry Jones is if they just miss the playoffs but get extremely lucky in the draft. If this happens I guess that is a viable but very unlikely path to a championship. The second path is Wall has a subpar rookie season, and Gil plays like he did over the first 20-30 games of last season. If this path occurs, Gil ain't worth the money he is getting, and he is a hinderance to getting a championship, not an asset.