Official NBA Playoffs Thread

[Nivek]

Hibbert improved his efficiency significantly this season. This year, he produced 109 points per 100 possessions -- about 4 points better than average. That's pretty good. Two games doesn't change the overall (and well-timed) improvement.

[Ruzious]

I'm not sure what people other than Kev are thinking, but Hibbert's developed into a very solid all-around starting center - who happens to be 7'2, and he's going to make a ton of money in free agency, because he's worth it. The only way Orlando beats Indy is if they're unconscious from 3 point land for 4 games out of 7 - and Indy's a very solid defensive team.

[tontoz]

Hibbert improved his efficiency significantly this season. This year, he produced 109 points per 100 possessions -- about 4 points better than average. That's pretty good. Two games doesn't change the overall (and well-timed) improvement.

Hibbert's TS% is 53.9, 24th among centers. He isn't scoring at a high rate either.

His assist rate is 22nd among centers.

[Nivek]

Hibbert improved his efficiency significantly this season. This year, he produced 109 points per 100 possessions -- about 4 points better than average. That's pretty good. Two games doesn't change the overall (and well-timed) improvement.

Hibbert's TS% is 53.9, 24th among centers. He isn't scoring at a high rate either.

His assist rate is 22nd among centers.

I look at offensive rating, which combines shooting, assists, offensive rebounds and turnovers. Hibbert's efficiency was good this season. Two games doesn't make him inefficient. I could make an argument that this season's numbers are an aberration given that he was below-average efficiency the previous two seasons. On the other hand, this was his 4th season, which is typically when players make The Leap to being the player they're going to be going forward. Plus, he's 25 years old, which suggests he's about to enter his prime. The next 4-5 years will likely be the best of his career.

[tontoz]

Hibbert improved his efficiency significantly this season. This year, he produced 109 points per 100 possessions -- about 4 points better than average. That's pretty good. Two games doesn't change the overall (and well-timed) improvement.

Hibbert's TS% is 53.9, 24th among centers. He isn't scoring at a high rate either.

His assist rate is 22nd among centers.

I look at offensive rating, which combines shooting, assists, offensive rebounds and turnovers. Hibbert's efficiency was good this season. Two games doesn't make him inefficient. I could make an argument that this season's numbers are an aberration given that he was below-average efficiency the previous two seasons. On the other hand, this was his 4th season, which is typically when players make The Leap to being the player they're going to be going forward. Plus, he's 25 years old, which suggests he's about to enter his prime. The next 4-5 years will likely be the best of his career.

ORTG is also a team measure so players on a good offensive team have a better rating than those on bad teams. Put Hibbert on the Cats and lets see him get to a 109 ORTG.

Indy is 8th in the league in scoring effeciency. They are 6th in 3 pt %, 3rd in ft% and 2nd in FTs made. They aren't ranked that highly in those categorys because of Hibbert.

Among centers Hibbert doesn't crack the top 20 in TS%, assist rate or turnover rate. Hibbert's TS% (his career best) isn't as high as second year Seraphin.

[Nivek]

So, Indy has an offensive rating of 106.7. Hibbert's offensive rating is 109, but he's not causing their ortg to rise? Hmm. Maybe I need to stop using that calculator I swiped from the Government Accounting Office.

First, offensive rating is not a team measure. (Individual DEFENSIVE rating does is very much a team measure, which may be what you're thinking. Maybe?) DeanO attempts to account for some interaction effects, but the effects in his formulation are pretty small. And, it's not strictly portable -- individual ortgs can and do change when a player changes teams and roles (although, usually not drastically). Put anyone on Charlotte's roster and they're likely to take a hit. The player didn't lose any ability, but defenses would gang up on him because no one else is a threat. But that's an extreme example. Would he lose that efficiency if he went to Milwaukee? Probably not. Washington? Again, probably not -- Nene sure didn't.

Second, the comparison with other centers is almost beside the point because he's not competing in one-on-one games with other centers. League average TS% this season was .527. Indy's was .526. Hibbert's was .539, which he did with a slightly above average usage rate. Plus, he grabbed offensive rebounds, so he helped their efficiency by a) shooting better than his teammates, and b) getting offensive boards. And he didn't hurt them much with turnovers -- his tov% was 14.2%, the team tov% was 14.1%.

Third, most centers aren't asked to be scorers these days. Among centers who played at least 500 minutes last season, he was 6th in usage -- and his ortg was better than 4 of the guys ahead of him. Among this group of centers, only Bynum had a higher ortg and a higher usage rate. His TS% was higher than 3 of the 5 who used more possessions -- both Howard and Bynum were better.

Limit analysis to the 9 centers with 500+ minutes and a usage rate of 20+ and Hibbert is 5th in TS% behind Bynum, Gortat, Howard and McGee. However, Hibbert also has the best offensive rebounding percentage and is basically tied with Howard for the 3rd highest assist rate. Among this group of centers, Hibbert is 3rd in ortg behind Gortat and Bynum.

And, I think I've now exhausted my interest in Roy Hibbert.

[tontoz]

First, offensive rating is not a team measure.

I thought offensive rating was team points scored per 100 possessions when the player is in the game. If that is incorrect then what exactly is it?

[tontoz]

Carmelo Anthony had an ORTG of 113 his last 3 years in Denver. So that would mean he is a very efficient offensive player, right?

[montestewart]

First, offensive rating is not a team measure.

I thought offensive rating was team points scored per 100 possessions when the player is in the game. If that is incorrect then what exactly is it?

See Nivek's post above: "combines shooting, assists, offensive rebounds and turnovers." I took it to mean these stats produce a score that approximately corresponds to team offensive production while isolating individual player contributions.

[tontoz]

First, offensive rating is not a team measure.

I thought offensive rating was team points scored per 100 possessions when the player is in the game. If that is incorrect then what exactly is it?

See Nivek's post above: "combines shooting, assists, offensive rebounds and turnovers." I took it to mean these stats produce a score that approximately corresponds to team offensive production while isolating individual player contributions.

Technically points per 100 possessions would take into account shooting, assists, etc.

[Nivek]

First, offensive rating is not a team measure.

I thought offensive rating was team points scored per 100 possessions when the player is in the game. If that is incorrect then what exactly is it?

There are two offensive ratings. Team offensive rating is TEAM points scored per 100 TEAM possessions. Individual offensive rating is individual points produced per 100 individual possessions used. Individual offensive rating is comprised of three key elements (according to its creator, Dean Oliver):

- individual scoring possessions
- individual possessions use -- credit an individual gets for the times his team ends a possession
- individual points produced -- credit an individual receives for the points his team generates (helper credit, if you will for stuff like assists and offensive rebounds)

Individual offensive rating accounts for the value of shooting from the floor and the FT line, assists, offensive rebounds and turnovers.

[Nivek]

Carmelo Anthony had an ORTG of 113 his last 3 years in Denver. So that would mean he is a very efficient offensive player, right?

First, where are you getting this number? From basketball-reference (which calculates individual offensive ratings using DeanO's formulas), here are Carmelo's offensive ratings for his last 3 years in Denver:

- 110 -- league average was 107.6
- 109 -- league average: 107.3
- 107 -- league average: 107.3

His first 27 games with New York, his ortg was 114, which was excellent. This year, he's back down to 106 (still slightly above average). His career average is 107, which is about average for the league during his career.

[tontoz]

First, offensive rating is not a team measure.

I thought offensive rating was team points scored per 100 possessions when the player is in the game. If that is incorrect then what exactly is it?

There are two offensive ratings. Team offensive rating is TEAM points scored per 100 TEAM possessions. Individual offensive rating is individual points produced per 100 individual possessions used. Individual offensive rating is comprised of three key elements (according to its creator, Dean Oliver):

- individual scoring possessions
- individual possessions use -- credit an individual gets for the times his team ends a possession
- individual points produced -- credit an individual receives for the points his team generates (helper credit, if you will for stuff like assists and offensive rebounds)

Individual offensive rating accounts for the value of shooting from the floor and the FT line, assists, offensive rebounds and turnovers.

So when i look at Hibberts numbers here

http://basketballvalue.com/teamplayers. ... 2&team=IND

is the 108.15 number the team or individual ORTG number? I was under the impression that is was team points scored per 100 possessions that Hibbert played.

[Nivek]

tontoz: What you're looking at is TEAM on/off numbers. That 108.15 number is the team offensive rating (points per 100 possessions) while Hibbert is on the floor. Which, as you can see is 5.43 points per 100 possessions better than when he's on the bench.

But that's not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about INDIVIDUAL offensive rating. HIBBERT's personal, individual points produced per 100 possessions. Which you can find here.

[FAH1223]

[tontoz]

tontoz: What you're looking at is TEAM on/off numbers. That 108.15 number is the team offensive rating (points per 100 possessions) while Hibbert is on the floor. Which, as you can see is 5.43 points per 100 possessions better than when he's on the bench.

But that's not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about INDIVIDUAL offensive rating. HIBBERT's personal, individual points produced per 100 possessions. Which you can find here.

So DeanO (getting visions of SteveO) created a new stat but couldn't be bothered to think up a new name for it?

I didn't know there were actually 2 ORTGs. Strange that both of them would be so close in Hibberts case. Before the playoffs im sure Hibberts team ortg was close to 109. Big discrepancy last year though.

Thanks for the info.

[Nivek]

tontoz: What you're looking at is TEAM on/off numbers. That 108.15 number is the team offensive rating (points per 100 possessions) while Hibbert is on the floor. Which, as you can see is 5.43 points per 100 possessions better than when he's on the bench.

But that's not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about INDIVIDUAL offensive rating. HIBBERT's personal, individual points produced per 100 possessions. Which you can find here.

So DeanO (getting visions of SteveO) created a new stat but couldn't be bothered to think up a new name for it?

C'mon, what do you expect from a guy with a PhD in environmental engineering?

Oh Stewardess, I speak geek.

I didn't know there were actually 2 ORTGs. Strange that both of them would be so close in Hibberts case. Before the playoffs im sure Hibberts team ortg was close to 109. Big discrepancy last year though.

Thanks for the info.

At b-r, playoff and regular season numbers are separate. In the playoffs, Indy's ortg through 2 games is 99. Hibbert's is 77. Which is putrid. But, it's just two games.

[tontoz]

Messing around on b-r and i found the top 10 list for individual ORTG.

This year it's

1 Chandler
2 Paul
3 Harden
4 Ryan Anderson
5 Noah
6 Dunleavy
7 Lebron
8 Ilyasova
9 Redick
10 Love

Wow

http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... op_10.html

[miller31time]

It's not like many players have much success guarding Bynum this season but once McGee was put in the game to guard him, Bynum went from playing really well to pure domination. Not even number-wise, but the sheer power and physicality Bynum is subjecting McGee to just seems...unfair.

[tontoz]

The Hawks are a tough team to watch. For a veteran team they make way too many dumb mistakes, Josh Smith especially. He is doing the same dumb crap he was doing several years ago.