Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII

[blazinskillz]

Standing reach is not the end of all. Noah had a standing reach of 8'10.5. Josh Smith had a standing reach of 8'10. Thaddeus Young 8'10. Kevin Love 8'10 Paul Millsap 8'9 Tyler Zeller 8'8.5. That list I provided is a good mix of offense defense. Nobody is expecting Bennett to be a great 2way player. There aren't a lot of Bigman, much less players in the league that does that. He will be able to score on Most players on most nights. I have no doubts about it. Millsap is not the athlete Bennett is but he's a good 2way player. If Bennett can work on his effort, he can be too. Bennett for the 3rd pick. Get ready for it.

[nate33]

Zeller looks pretty big in that video. He's got to be at least 10 pounds heavier than he was in Indiana. He is definitely working on his body.

[Liver_Pooty]

Post from the previous thread:

Seeing how Cleveland has drafted the last 3 years, it would not surprise me if Porter or Oladipo is the pick. Also remember, this is the same franchise that took Tristan Thompson over Jonas Valanciunas because Valanciunas was staying overseas and Cleveland was unwilling to wait a year for him. So Noel not being a lock at #1 doesn't surprise me sense he wouldn't be ready to even begin practicing with the team until December or so.

To add to that, Gilbert and his kid on lottery night made those "we won't be here next year" comments. Porter starts for them on Day One, and probably makes a guy like Thompson at least a little bit better. So I definitely think it's possible they take Porter #1. I'm also interested to see what trade down rumors surface over the next week or so.

Cleveland ought to make a deal with Phoenix or Charlotte. Both of those teams should be tanking for next season and picking Noel would help them do it. Charlotte has a future first from Portland (though they also have traded one to Chicago). Phoenix has future firsts from Minnesota and the Lakers.

Cleveland trades: #1
Charlotte trades: #4, Sessions, Portland '14 first

or

Phoenix trades, #5, Dudley and/or Scola, Lakers '15 first (only top 5 protected)

Cavs would likely choose one of Bennett, Oladipo, Zeller, Len at 4 or 5

Charlotte is more than content to sit at 4 and pick the BPA. No one worth us trading up for and giving up assets in this kind of draft.

[gambitx777]

if Cleveland makes a deal I think will be with some one out of left field, who gives up a piece that they really don't care for. I do not think we will see it coming.

Maybe Altalnta would want that #1 pick, they could sign and trade Smith and clevland has the cap room to absorb it straight up, toss the details in there after. Or the lakers Sign and trade Howard and what ever there for the #1 and Andy V. (I am not saying Howard or Smith want to be in clevlend im just putting it out there.)
Maybe Zach Randolph is offered, maybe the Bulls offer Deng.

I'm am not saying any of these are likely but thats the point. I doubt, the cats, or sun give up any thing to move up 2 or 3 spots. But these other teams looking to start a rebuild or teams that do not get in to the loto often might look to grab that pick for a piece that they do not want, are unlikely to keep, or feel that they can live with out.

If this happens it could seriously impact how we use or move our pick because that could seriously impact the draft order.

[deneem4]

I see porter ceiling as being jimmy butler or iman shumpert... what yall think?...

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

If Ford is to be believed, there isn't all that much heat being generated. Seems like the unusually distinct prospects that have gotten the top 6 grades: Noel, Porter, Len, Oladipo, Bennett and McLemore all have landing spots for particular teams, and teams that have multiple fits that work for them. There is no clear tier of separation between these guys to scouts, and so teams are basically targeting certain particular players for needs, and have fall back plans that generally negate the point of trading up. The only teams that really seem all that interested in moving up appear to be Minny, and maybe Milwaukee, and neither are offering anything to attract a team to move down. I could see Phoenix, or New Orleans possibly trading up, but they'd only need to go to 2 or 3, they don't need to go to #1, since their targets appear highly unlikely to go #1 overall.

I don't think Cleveland's gonna move out of #1. The offers will be nickels on the dollar compared to better drafts, and not remotely worth the cost of having access to whatever player they want. Those suggested offers a page or so ago I simply can't see happening, I don't think they're in the interests of the teams involved. Orlando is fine with any of the five directions they could go, while Charlotte/Phoenix/New Orleans sound like they're all fine with taking whomever falls to them amongst McLemore/Oladipo/Len/Porter/Bennett.

In general I agree with this. My only difference is that I wouldn't say the top 6 teams won't move around. Rather, I think the price to move around is going to be a lot smaller. Teams might throw in a 2nd rounder here or there to move up, but that's about it.

The Cleveland situation is a good example. They probably want Porter, but know that Noel has a little more value in the abstract. There's no reason they don't at least call up Washington and see if Washington will cough up the #38 pick to move up to #1. If Cleveland wants Porter, what's the harm? They still get him, but at a lower salary, without the pressure of being number 1, and with an extra 2nd rounder as incentive.

Washington might well go ahead and make that trade. Coughing up the #38 to ensure that they land Noel is better than being stuck with Oladipo, Zeller or Bennett.

Why would Cleveland do this if they already own #19, #31 and #33? I don't see the point in picking up #38 as well in exchange for sacrificing access to their choice on exactly what player they want the most? I suppose it's possible but I seriously doubt it. They have a million picks the next few drafts, and I would imagine are more interested in getting bang for their buck, then adding more bullets. Supposedly they like Karasev, Caldwell Pope, and a few other SG/SF prospects for the #19.

Karasev seems like a possible anti-Vesely to me.

http://www.nbadraft.net/players/sergey-karasev

Very skilled scorer but not a freak athlete. Great range on his shot. Olympic Bronze medalist with Russian Men's team (along with Kirlenko& Schved). Led his pro league in scoring with good efficiency. Karasev is age 19--he's months younger than Beal. Dominated the Hoop Summit. His dad was an international star player and coach.

Just on a hunch I would trade Seraphin for the rights to Karasev. Guys like Dirk and Manu had similar beginnings. I think people probably remember Vesely and are gun shy, but this guy won't be overwhelmed. No one will question his confidence or his work ethic. Karasev looks like a guy who will put up some big scoring numbers in a few years.

http://www.nbadraft.net/players/sergey-karasev

DX has a video of Karasev. Dude looks like Rudy Fernandez a bit to me.

[gambitx777]

Karasev seems like a possible anti-Vesely to me. Just on a hunch I would trade Seraphin for the rights to Karasev. Guys like Dirk and Manu had similar beginnings. I think people probably remember Vesely and are gun shy, but this guy won't be overwhelmed.

As for Sergey Karasev
I would do that deal all day,
The thing is he and Ves are different. He will not go any where near the 6th over all pick and Jan should not have even touched the loto, Hell ves should have been a mid second. Were Karasev will be picked he will be a good value and If we miss out on Porter and end up going big with Len, Noel or Bennett, I would target this guy for sure.

I see porter ceiling as being jimmy butler or iman shumpert... what yall think?...

Considering that those two players have not hit there ceilings yet, I don't see that comparison. But those are two very good young players.

I also think that Porter will be better than they are. I think his range could be a version of Shawn Marion, Probably not as good. But if he figures it all out, I see that as his Potential.

[WizarDynasty]

stay far and away from Zeller Wizards. Far and Away.

[stevemcqueen1]

Post from the previous thread:

Seeing how Cleveland has drafted the last 3 years, it would not surprise me if Porter or Oladipo is the pick. Also remember, this is the same franchise that took Tristan Thompson over Jonas Valanciunas because Valanciunas was staying overseas and Cleveland was unwilling to wait a year for him. So Noel not being a lock at #1 doesn't surprise me sense he wouldn't be ready to even begin practicing with the team until December or so.

To add to that, Gilbert and his kid on lottery night made those "we won't be here next year" comments. Porter starts for them on Day One, and probably makes a guy like Thompson at least a little bit better. So I definitely think it's possible they take Porter #1. I'm also interested to see what trade down rumors surface over the next week or so.

I'm betting that Cleveland is doing everything possible to trade the pick. They're going to try to get maximal value out of it, which probably translates into getting additional assets. I'd guess a Bobcats or Suns trade is in the works for this. The question though is whether anyone really wants it for what Cleveland wants in return.

They aren't going to get much in return. No clear cut #1 overall guy means no one is going to really want to move up.

[stevemcqueen1]

^
But the Cavs want Porter and he won't last past us. I think Cleveland has to call us if they want to trade down.

It's a game of chicken. Cleveland wants Porter but doesn't really want to take him at #1. Orlando won't trade up because they're just as happy with McLemore as they are with Noel. It doesn't bother us much if Cleveland drafts Noel because we'll end up with Porter. The only thing that scares us if if Cleveland actually drafts Porter, leaving Orlando to draft Noel.

So what do we do if Cleveland demands a future 1st from us to move up to #1. If we don't, they'll threaten to go ahead and draft Porter and leave us with the nightmare scenario of having neither Noel or Porter on the board.

Do we consider Noel to be so much better of an option than Bennett that's it's worth sacrificing a future 1st? (I'd definitely give up the #38, I'm just conflicted about giving up anything more.)

I would probably just stay put and see what happens. Worst case scenario, we have to take Bennett at three. That's really not bad. I don't want to give up anything of legit value to move up to #1 and take a guy who is going to have a hard time living up to the expectations of a #1/#1.

And I'm also not convinced Orlando would take Noel over McLemore. I think they like what they've got with the Harris/Vucevic front court.

I could however, see them using Noel to move down.

[stevemcqueen1]

I see porter ceiling as being jimmy butler or iman shumpert... what yall think?...

Porter is a significantly better offensive player than those guys. Definitely not the athlete Shumpert is. And definitely doesn't have the body Butler has. They're all pretty different players.

[fishercob]

I dunno if this clip of Zeller's workout w/ the Kings has already been posted, but here you go:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=abPOpSJ0ovQ[/youtube]

You get a nice look at Zeller's shooting form. His release point is a little low for my tastes, but it looks fluid and accurate.

Thanks for posting, key, and I agree with your assessment -- release is a little low (and he also brings the ball down much lower than he needs to), but there's a clear competence there.

While my clear preference remains for Porter, if he's off the board I think the Wiz could do a lot worse than Zeller at #3. No, he's not going to be a dominant defensive center, but I have a hard team seeing how he doesn't help a team offensively. It would be a low risk, low reward proposition.

If he were available in some sort of good trade down scenario, I'd consider it, especially if Porter is off the board.

[Dark Faze]

http://www.monumentalnetwork.com/videos/anthony-bennett-interview-6-13-13/index.jsp

Bennett says his standing reach measured at 8'9".

lol

His jumper is going to have to be amazing for his offense to be any good in the NBA imo. He's only fast based on how thick he is, in terms of actual speed for the position he's nothing special.

[verbal8]

See Noel makes me very nervous. I really think he could go the way of Greg Oden or Thabeet.

I completely see the Oden risk for Noel. However I don't see the Thabeet possibility. If he is healthy, but not a star, I think his offensive production will at least be similar to Okafor's.

[nate33]

Thanks for posting, key, and I agree with your assessment -- release is a little low (and he also brings the ball down much lower than he needs to), but there's a clear competence there.

While my clear preference remains for Porter, if he's off the board I think the Wiz could do a lot worse than Zeller at #3. No, he's not going to be a dominant defensive center, but I have a hard team seeing how he doesn't help a team offensively. It would be a low risk, low reward proposition.

If he were available in some sort of good trade down scenario, I'd consider it, especially if Porter is off the board.

Every time Zeller's name comes up, I keep trying to think of why he shouldn't go in the top 3 or 4, and I'm having trouble coming up with a good answer. He is a freak athlete. He was a very productive player in college. He is a winner. He is an extremely hard worker. He is skilled in the post and out on the perimeter. He plays a position of need.

Are we overthinking this? Why not just take him and be happy?

[Dat2U]

Standing reach is not the end of all. Noah had a standing reach of 8'10.5. Josh Smith had a standing reach of 8'10. Thaddeus Young 8'10. Kevin Love 8'10 Paul Millsap 8'9 Tyler Zeller 8'8.5. That list I provided is a good mix of offense defense. Nobody is expecting Bennett to be a great 2way player. There aren't a lot of Bigman, much less players in the league that does that. He will be able to score on Most players on most nights. I have no doubts about it. Millsap is not the athlete Bennett is but he's a good 2way player. If Bennett can work on his effort, he can be too. Bennett for the 3rd pick. Get ready for it.

Small quibble. Millsap's reach is 8'9.5". Also I don't know if Tyler Zeller works as a success story yet.

It's not impossible for Bennett, but with a 8'9" standing reach, the odds are against him. Blake is the lone example of a guy 8'9" or lower than wasn't held back by his standing reach and became an all-star.

There just aren't good examples of 6-7 stud PFs nowadays. At least none worthy of being drafted very high.

He's going to have problems defending at the next level, even if he does give more effort. That's where his length really becomes an issue. And yes, as in any professional sport, it's a game of inches so it does matter.

[verbal8]

I'm am not saying any of these are likely but thats the point. I doubt, the cats, or sun give up any thing to move up 2 or 3 spots. But these other teams looking to start a rebuild or teams that do not get in to the loto often might look to grab that pick for a piece that they do not want, are unlikely to keep, or feel that they can live with out.

Depending on your analysis of the class it seems to be a "4 to 7" player draft. Noel, Porter, McLemore and Oladipo seem project pretty clearly to NBA starters. I think Bennett, Len and Burke are also included in that group by some. Some may also like Zeller and McCollum.

So I agree teams in the first 4 or 5 picks, don't have a ton of interest in moving up. Any movement in that area will likely be shuffling a spot or two for a late 1st or young prospect. To get the first, I think you are looking at a team in the second half of the lotto with significant assets and a desire to tank. The Bucks may be one such team. They have a couple young bigs and the much discussed Ersan. They also are in perfect position to push the reset button with their team.

Portland, OKC and Philly would also have intriguing assets to offer if they are really high on Noel.

[tontoz]

7'2" wingspan though, that's pretty decent for his size. I just don't buy that one inch is a make or break. His athletic prowess helps overcome it, similar to Blake.

Agreed. I don't see these measurements having much of an impact on Bennett's standing in the draft. I doubt that GMs would pass on a player whose skillset they really like because his standing reach is an inch or half inch less than another player.

Length matters. If it didn't matter Len wouldn't be considered a lottery pick. There are a lot of 4s that would have a several inch reach advantage on Bennett.

I want to like Bennett because having a 4 who can shoot and attack the basket strong would be such a great fit with Wall. But when you look at Bennetts lack of reach along with his injury history/inability to workout for teams/lack of effort on D it is hard to make a good case for him at 3.

I would holding out hope that his standing reach would come in higher.

[doclinkin]

Thanks for posting, key, and I agree with your assessment -- release is a little low (and he also brings the ball down much lower than he needs to), but there's a clear competence there.

While my clear preference remains for Porter, if he's off the board I think the Wiz could do a lot worse than Zeller at #3. No, he's not going to be a dominant defensive center, but I have a hard team seeing how he doesn't help a team offensively. It would be a low risk, low reward proposition.

If he were available in some sort of good trade down scenario, I'd consider it, especially if Porter is off the board.

Every time Zeller's name comes up, I keep trying to think of why he shouldn't go in the top 3 or 4, and I'm having trouble coming up with a good answer. He is a freak athlete. He was a very productive player in college. He is a winner. He is an extremely hard worker. He is skilled in the post and out on the perimeter. He plays a position of need.

Are we overthinking this? Why not just take him and be happy?

I'd rather Zeller over Bennett. I would just prefer to get him on a trade down picking something else of value along the way. If possible. But would not cry at all if we chose him.

To me at this point in order to not overthink things and select a player one criteria of evaluation is to ask myself: "Could they play for the Spurs?"

Not 'could Popovich et al make a player out of them?' -- though Wittman is in the Popovich mold and will sit a player who does not defend, we lack the will to use the DLeague as a resource and lack the infrastructure to train new players.

But: could they step on court and play for Pop TODAY.

Here's the list:
1. Noel. In a limited role, yes.
3. Porter. No question. In a Danny Green role without the early struggles. Thus better upside.
5. Oladipo. Bruce Bowen style. yes.
7, 8. Burke, maybe, McCollum, yes.
11. Zeller of course. Gives good effort at both ends, high IQ, nice size for the position.
12. KCP. maybe.... He's a role-player with an NBA position: hits the 3, hits jumpers after motion, rebounds well for the position. I think I like him more than Pop does. He'd see DLeague time unless he figured out team D fast. But if you rebound, defend and hit the 3 you can play for Pop. He'd work his way back. But maybe = no.
13. MCW. Maybe.... no. He needs to shoot to play for the Spurs though. So no.
17. Olynyk. In a Bonner role.
18. Mason Plumlee. Absolutely. Plumlee is a typical Spurs pick. Overlooked solid role player, unexciting but plays a needed role. Longtime starter from a great NCAA program that teaches fundamentally sound smart ball. Yes.
20. Gorgui Dieng. Yes. Passes well too. Though his positional defense is not as good as it could be, he occasionally allows players to blow by so that he can shadow them for a block from behind, he's smart enough to grasp the Spurs system quickly and captain the defense whenever Tim can't go.
24. Bullock. Same reasoning as Mason Plumlee but in that Bruce Bowen 3&D role. This year's Danny Green.
28. Isaiah Canaan.
29. Jeff Withey.

International players were all cut from the above list since they may well simply play overseas if selected by San Antonio. On the Spurs, any potential international Euro-players from Alex Len on down would be draft-and-season targets, but not necessarily brought over today, no matter how highly they were taken.

Splitter first came on the radar as a potential #1 overall selection at age 17 or so, back when barelyawake and I were on the ESPN boards. He fell because he inked overseas to a contract that held him there for a while The Spurs jumped at the opportunity to snatch a great talent with a surefire education in BBall. He was to play next to or behind world champion Marc Gasol, he could definitely learn to play with or behind Duncan.

In round 2 there are: Erick Green, Mike Muscala, Nate Wolters, maybe Solomon Hill. And DEFINITELY Arsalan Kazemi who adds the benefit of being an overseas prospect while he develops a ranged jumper.

I look at Andre Roberson as a Kawhi Leonard type project, playing well at both ends and rebounding remarkably, but needing his jumper fixed. Because of that he's a developmental-type project that Pop would develop well but I lack confidence in our ability to do so.

So yes, no matter the upside and potential, as a circuit breaker to enthusiasm I commonly fall back on the binary metric: Yes/No, Would the Spurs play them today? If No. I have to take a 2nd look at how much I like them and why.

[popper]

Is Zeller going to be that much better than Muscala to justify such a wide separation in draft rank? Don't know, just asking.