Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 5

[dckingsfan]

Anything is possible, but history really isn't on MCW's side. There are very few instances of PG's with atrocious 3P% at age 23 who ultimately pan out to be solid 3-point shooters.

Jason Kidd?

[dckingsfan]

I guess the two teams that were the big winners were Miami and OKC. In both cases it doesn't help us. Having another team in the east pass us and assets to help OKC makes Durant less likely to leave.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Kidd couldn't shoot when he came into the NBA. MCW is just 23.

Anything is possible, but history really isn't on MCW's side. There are very few instances of PG's with atrocious 3P% at age 23 who ultimately pan out to be solid 3-point shooters. Here's a screen of guys since 1990, age 22-25, who averaged at least 6 assists, totaled at least 50 3PA's a season, and shot below .275. Of the 10 names on the list, only Mark Jackson and Mookie Blaylock became acceptable 3-point shooters.

Interestingly, if you go back a few years further, you will find a bunch of guys who couldn't hit 3's early in their career but figured it out later. My guess is that that's because the 3-point shot wasn't emphasized in high school or college. Guys never bothered to work on the shot until it became necessary in the 90's. These days, hardly any guards even enter the league who can't hit at least a passable 30% from 3-point range. If you can't shoot it despite years of practice at it, it's a good bet that you'll never figure it out.

http://bkref.com/tiny/FFMxn

nate, I don't know how to create images like you just did. I would if I could. What I do know how to do is post links:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... dja01.html

Jason Kidd as rookie shot .272 from 3PT. (Kidd was 21)

His last 5 seasons he shot it at over .400.

nate, going to the Bucks is going to get MCW cleaner, more open looks, too.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ede01.html

Derek Harper at age 24 shot .235. By age 31 he shot .393 and ended as a career .354 three point shooter.

nate, I actually AGREE with you that MCW won't become a great 3pt shooter, most likely. However, like JOHN WALL he can at least be a .310 shooter who can keep defenses honest IMO.

[Induveca]

Dragic's for two first rounders? Dragic's never averaged over 14 PPG before last season. More in the 7-10 category.

Not a fan of that guy. He's not horrible, but he's also not young. If Wade wasn't (not) playing on just one leg and Bosh wasn't a 3 point shooting center I'd be more impressed.

End of the day they are Dragic/Deng/Bosh/Ike Austin...err Whiteside. Oh god please don't trade for Whiteside Ernie.

[nate33]

Anything is possible, but history really isn't on MCW's side. There are very few instances of PG's with atrocious 3P% at age 23 who ultimately pan out to be solid 3-point shooters.

Jason Kidd?

Jason Kidd was never that bad of a 3-point shooter. In his rookie season, at age 21, he shot .272. But by his second year he was already shooting .336 on 400 attempts. He shot .370 in his 3rd season at age 23.

MCW is 23 and shoots .256.in an era when the 3-point shot is stressed like never before.

[AFM]

Honestly twenty five percent isn't that bad. That's right around 1 in 4. I'll take that all day and twice on Sunday.

[nate33]

nate, I don't know how to create images like you just did. I would if I could. What I do know how to do is post links:

Derek Harper at age 24 shot .235. By age 31 he shot .393 and ended as a career .354 three point shooter.

nate, I actually AGREE with you that MCW won't become a great 3pt shooter, most likely. However, like JOHN WALL he can at least be a .310 shooter who can keep defenses honest IMO.

I tried to make the point in my post earlier that I don't think it's fair to compare guys today to guys who entered the league in the 80s. Back then, the 3-point shot wasn't a prerequisite. Guys who could shoot it, did; but if you couldn't shoot it, it wasn't really a liability. With that the norm, high school and college players with suspect jump shots didn't even practice the 3-point shot much. That's why the entered the league as such poor shooters. When the league finally figured out in the 90's that the 3-point shot is a key weapon, everyone worked at it and improved dramatically.

Today is different. Everyone knows that the 3-point shot is an absolute necessity if you're going to function as a guard in the NBA. I'm sure MCW has launched tens of thousands more 3-point shots in practice before age 22 than Derek Harper ever did. With that the case, I think it's far less likely that he'll improve dramatically.

That said, I think you're right that he'll improve a bit and maybe get up to the .310 range. But even that isn't really good enough. NBA defenses are still going to go under the screen and cede the jumper. You really need to hit at a .350 clip before defenses come out and guard you.

[hands11]

Hey, gotta give EG some credit for getting Nene from Denver and letting go of McGee while the getting was good.


The 76ers acquired McGee and a future first round pick from the Denver Nuggets at the deadline.

McGee has had two consecutive injury-plagued seasons, and has a contract that owes him $11.2 million this season and $12 million in the 2015-16 season.

Denver had to give up a first just to get ride of McGee. Meanwhile, we still have Nene and just so people don't forget, Nene was kind of the first big pieces added as a vet to help turn this franchise around.

[Ruzious]

nate, I don't know how to create images like you just did. I would if I could. What I do know how to do is post links:

Derek Harper at age 24 shot .235. By age 31 he shot .393 and ended as a career .354 three point shooter.

nate, I actually AGREE with you that MCW won't become a great 3pt shooter, most likely. However, like JOHN WALL he can at least be a .310 shooter who can keep defenses honest IMO.

I tried to make the point in my post earlier that I don't think it's fair to compare guys today to guys who entered the league in the 80s. Back then, the 3-point shot wasn't a prerequisite. Guys who could shoot it, did; but if you couldn't shoot it, it wasn't really a liability. With that the norm, high school and college players with suspect jump shots didn't even practice the 3-point shot much. That's why the entered the league as such poor shooters. When the league finally figured out in the 90's that the 3-point shot is a key weapon, everyone worked at it and improved dramatically.

Today is different. Everyone knows that the 3-point shot is an absolute necessity if you're going to function as a guard in the NBA. I'm sure MCW has launched tens of thousands more 3-point shots in practice before age 22 than Derek Harper ever did. With that the case, I think it's far less likely that he'll improve dramatically.

That said, I think you're right that he'll improve a bit and maybe get up to the .310 range. But even that isn't really good enough. NBA defenses are still going to go under the screen and cede the jumper. You really need to hit at a .350 clip before defenses come out and guard you.

If you're only using players from the last few years to compare, your sample size of players probably isn't big enough to reach the conclusions you've came to on MCW.

[nate33]

If you're only using players from the last few years to compare, your sample size of players probably isn't big enough to reach the conclusions you've came to on MCW.

Perhaps so. But I think it's noteworthy that there are so few examples of poor shooters in the past 15 years. It's really just Rondo, Wade and MCW. The likely reason is that more players work on that 3-point shot at a younger age these days. It's only the hopeless cases that can't figure it out by age 23.

FWIW, MCW is also the second worst FT shooter on the list, behind only Rondo.

Obviously, nobody can predict the future. Maybe you guys are right and that MCW becomes a 35% 3P shooter. Personally, I'm dubious. I think there's a reason Philly was willing to part with them. Philly has some top notch stat guys in the front office. My guess is that they've researched this issue.

[nate33]

My initial screen looked only at PG's. Here's another look at the issue. It's a screen of players since 1990, 6-6 or shorter (guards), who shot sub .275 from 3-point range at age 23. I used a 75 attempt cutoff because I was trying to look only at guys who knew full well that one of their duties was to hit threes. These are the guys that have presumably practiced it a lot yet still couldn't shoot.

http://bkref.com/tiny/2ZO4F



Again, there isn't a lot of reason for optimism. Stackhouse, Blaylock and Lowry eventually figured it out. Rip Hamilton did too, but that's understandable since he was already deadly from 21 feet. He just needed to add 2 feet to his range. I was surprised to see Kobe on this list. He obviously figured things out later too. But aside from those 5 guys, pretty much everyone else on this list remained a bad 3-point shooter throughout their career.

[nate33]

Hmmm. Here's the same screen, sorted by FT%. The ones that could hit FTs eventually shot 3s well. The ones with poor FT% remained bad 3pt shooters:



Doesn't bode well for MCW

[Ruzious]

If you're only using players from the last few years to compare, your sample size of players probably isn't big enough to reach the conclusions you've came to on MCW.

Perhaps so. But I think it's noteworthy that there are so few examples of poor shooters in the past 15 years. It's really just Rondo, Wade and MCW. The likely reason is that more players work on that 3-point shot at a younger age these days. It's only the hopeless cases that can't figure it out by age 23.

FWIW, MCW is also the second worst FT shooter on the list, behind only Rondo.

Obviously, nobody can predict the future. Maybe you guys are right and that MCW becomes a 35% 3P shooter. Personally, I'm dubious. I think there's a reason Philly was willing to part with them. Philly has some top notch stat guys in the front office. My guess is that they've researched this issue.

Philly got plenty for him - the Lakers pick with very little protection on it. I don't know if MCW will become a 35% 3 point shooter, but I don't think the evidence you've given is very compelling - especially when the kid has played all of 1.5 seasons in the NBA. Limiting your sample to point guards and age 23 and just the last 15 years comes off as relevant as when someone bragged that Steve Blake was the first ACC player to have something like 1,200 points, 1,500 assists, 97 steals, and 230 free throws.

[Dark Faze]

I guess the two teams that were the big winners were Miami and OKC. In both cases it doesn't help us. Having another team in the east pass us and assets to help OKC makes Durant less likely to leave.

Yep, there's really no telling how low we could drop next year.
(No specific order)
1. Hawks
2. Cavs
3. Raptors
4. Heat
5. Chicago
6. Pacers
---
7. Wiz

The only team I could see us beating out next year (assuming we're healthy) is the Bulls...and even then you'd probably expect Rose to shake a lot of the rust off next year and return to all-star form.

That would have us in 7th.

Detroit also gets a top ten pick and adds Reggie jackson. We'll get a good idea of how much better they are by gauging their record after the break. The Celtics also will be completely out of tank mode next year and look to add whatever pieces they can in free agency to start building a winning roster.

[dckingsfan]

I guess the two teams that were the big winners were Miami and OKC. In both cases it doesn't help us. Having another team in the east pass us and assets to help OKC makes Durant less likely to leave.

Yep, there's really no telling how low we could drop next year.
(No specific order)
1. Hawks
2. Cavs
3. Raptors
4. Heat
5. Chicago
6. Pacers
---
7. Wiz

The only team I could see us beating out next year (assuming we're healthy) is the Bulls...and even then you'd probably expect Rose to shake a lot of the rust off next year and return to all-star form.

That would have us in 7th.

Detroit also gets a top ten pick and adds Reggie jackson. We'll get a good idea of how much better they are by gauging their record after the break. The Celtics also will be completely out of tank mode next year and look to add whatever pieces they can in free agency to start building a winning roster.

Next year we have:

Wall, Sessions
Beal, Webster
Porter
Nene, Humphries, Blair
Gortat

Pierce and Temple have player options, I could actually see Pierce opting out.

Plus a first round pick + MLE + BAE

Pretty clear that if Beal and Porter don't break out we are in big trouble.

And you forgot Milwaukee - They will definitely be better next year, IMO.

[dckingsfan]

Just for the record, I want the + side of MCW in an over/under bet with Kidd as his coach.

[Dat2U]

Dragic's for two first rounders? Dragic's never averaged over 14 PPG before last season. More in the 7-10 category.

Not a fan of that guy. He's not horrible, but he's also not young. If Wade wasn't (not) playing on just one leg and Bosh wasn't a 3 point shooting center I'd be more impressed.

End of the day they are Dragic/Deng/Bosh/Ike Austin...err Whiteside. Oh god please don't trade for Whiteside Ernie.

Whiteside is putting up Dwight Howard type numbers in his prime and is playing like a dominant defensive C... why wouldn't anyone not want that guy on your team?

I don't understand the Ike Austin comparison, other than playing for Miami, the two have nothing in common.

[Induveca]

Just for the record, I want the + side of MCW in an over/under bet with Kidd as his coach.

Same here

[Ruzious]

Just for the record, I want the + side of MCW in an over/under bet with Kidd as his coach.

Same here

Kidd shall be known as The Point Guard Whisperer.

[Ruzious]

Miami did well w/Dragic but he won't be worth the money, and they are literally 6 deep. Wade is always a question mark health wise, so I'm suppose to be afraid of them rolling out Chalmers and Dragic as the starting backcourt?

Yeah, any talk of Pat Riley pulling off a miracle has to be tempered a day later with news that Chris Bosh may have a serious lung problem. Hopefully, it's not too bad.