2015 Free Agency and Offseason Part 1

[LyricalRico]

If Pierce opts out, it means he is retiring or going back to the Celtics.

I think he plays out the final year of his deal.

I'd like him back but I'd want him at the 4 or coming off the bench.

Pierce isn't getting another MLE contract on the open market, so financially he's better off staying. And the Wiz still won't have any cap space even if he opts out, so he might as well stay. We could do a lot worse than Pierce as a backup small-ball PF for 18-20 mpg IMO.

[jivelikenice]

You don't think Pierce can get a 1-yr MLE from a team like LAC or even Boston (more nostalgic)? I'm hoping he opts out but let's see.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Pierce will be able to get another MLE deal, if he opts out. He's been good this year, and I think a number of good teams would be willing to bet the MLE for a year that he could do something similar again.

That said, I fully expect him back in DC next season. And I expect him to open next season as the team's starting SF.

[dobrojim]

Any chance we could sign someone like Brandon Wright?

[fishercob]

FYI:

The Mid-Level Exception starts at $5.5 million, for deals up to $23.3 million over four seasons.

The Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception begins at $3.4 million, for deals up to $10.6 million over three years.

The Bi-Annual Exception is $2.1 million, up to $4.4 million on a two-year deal.

The Room Exception will be $2.8 million for one year or up to $5.8 million for two seasons.

Unless the Wizards make a deal to go under the cap, they will likely have the $5.5M MLE, the $2.1M BAE and their two TPE's from the Ariza and Miller deals (around $4.3M and $4.7M)

[gambitx777]

I would take a look at K. J. McDaniels in the summer, Bring Thomas over too! let's get some youth in here!

[fishercob]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/DraftExpress/status/589169246455869440[/tweet]

[miller31time]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/DraftExpress/status/589169246455869440[/tweet]

So what's going to happen? Are players going to get much more lucrative contracts or are big markets going to be able to build super teams more easily? Or both? I guess they aren't really mutually exclusive possibilities.

[Dark Faze]

this is why i said the cap wasn't going to be a hindrance to getting durant...and that we should just improve the team so we look good enough for him to join up

but nooooo, "we cant add these contracts doeeeeee"

now we look like hot ass when we could have made some nice improvements for this playoff run AND been in a decent spot for next years free agency

[LyricalRico]

this is why i said the cap wasn't going to be a hindrance to getting durant...and that we should just improve the team so we look good enough for him to join up

but nooooo, "we cant add these contracts doeeeeee"

now we look like hot ass when we could have made some nice improvements for this playoff run AND been in a decent spot for next years free agency

Decent spot, maybe. But now we're in a great spot going forward. Heck, let's go after 2 max guys! Convince both KD and Love to come here in 2016. We'd have to let Beal walk (or S&T him), but I'd be fine with that.

Gortat
Love
Durant
(anybody)
Wall

Bench - Porter, 2015 & 2016 firsts

We'd have lots of minimum bench players that first year, but we can add another piece when the cap jumps again in 2017.

[Rafael122]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/DraftExpress/status/589169246455869440[/tweet]

So what's going to happen? Are players going to get much more lucrative contracts or are big markets going to be able to build super teams more easily? Or both? I guess they aren't really mutually exclusive possibilities.

I think you're gonna see guys like Monroe probably sign 1 year deals. I get the long term security but why settle for 10-11 mil a year, when you can get 15-16 mil and not be a hindrance on the team's cap situation?

And for those that are wondering, Wiz currently have $70.2 mil tied up in salary next season, and as of now they only have $38.1 mil in salary for the 2016 offseason (Wall, Gortat, Porter's option and Humphries).

Just some things to consider for 2015 and beyond:
1. What to do with Martell? He has to play in 180 games games beginning with last season, current season and next year. He's at 110 if you don't include playoff games. If he plays in 180 or more games, his last year becomes fully guaranteed. Otherwise, they can trade him, use the stretch provision which means whatever his guarantee is left ($8.1), it can be stretched over the final 2 years or they can cut him and just be on the books for the $2.5. I highly doubt Webster will play 70 games next season.

2. Beal's contract, he hasn't shown anything that puts him on the Klay Thompson tier. Unless he makes the jump next season, I don't see why he should get more than $60 mil over 4 years. It's going to be interesting, he's our best trade chip and could legitimately land a guy like Cousins if the deal is right. I think you have to ask around and see what you can get for him. Trading him gets them an out on having to pay him.

3. What to do with the roster next season? If Pierce is back, they pretty much have their top 9 players returning: Wall/Sessions, Beal/Webster, Pierce/Porter, Nene/Humphries and Gortat. Add Blair and you're already at 10. Add a draft pick, you're at 11 and they usually don't care more than 12-13 players. Hard for me to see them using the MLE, especially when they have MLE sized contracts in Pierce, Webster, Hump. So in a nutshell, unless Pierce opts out it's the same roster.

[nate33]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/DraftExpress/status/589169246455869440[/tweet]

In 2017, a max salary for a 7-year vet is going to start at $33M a year! A max salary for a guy coming off his rookie deal is going to start at $27M a year.

John Wall and Marcin Gortat now have extremely cost effective contracts. In 2017, Wall will be paid $18M. Gortat will be paid $12.7M.

When Beal's rookie deal expires in 2016, he will be eligible for a contract that starts at $22M. He probably won't get that much, but he's going to get a lot. Somebody will pay him $15M at least - and probably more. We should try and extend him this summer for a $12M a year deal. If he declines, we should look to trade him.

[nate33]

3. What to do with the roster next season? If Pierce is back, they pretty much have their top 9 players returning: Wall/Sessions, Beal/Webster, Pierce/Porter, Nene/Humphries and Gortat. Add Blair and you're already at 10. Add a draft pick, you're at 11 and they usually don't care more than 12-13 players. Hard for me to see them using the MLE, especially when they have MLE sized contracts in Pierce, Webster, Hump. So in a nutshell, unless Pierce opts out it's the same roster.

I think just the opposite. This summer is the best time to lock up players to long term contracts. I'd try and get the best player I could find for a 4-year full MLE deal. For argument's sake, let's say we added a guy like Iman Shumpert, Alexis Ajinca, Jonas Jerebko or Dorell Wright for the a 4-year, $25M deal. 2 years for now, we'll be happy to have a quality rotation player at that price. An MLE contract in 2017 will be more like $10M a year.

[stevemcqueen1]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/DraftExpress/status/589169246455869440[/tweet]

In 2017, a max salary for a 7-year vet is going to start at $33M a year! A max salary for a guy coming off his rookie deal is going to start at $27M a year.

John Wall and Marcin Gortat now have extremely cost effective contracts. In 2017, Wall will be paid $18M. Gortat will be paid $12.7M.

When Beal's rookie deal expires in 2016, he will be eligible for a contract that starts at $22M. He probably won't get that much, but he's going to get a lot. Somebody will pay him $15M at least - and probably more. We should try and extend him this summer for a $12M a year deal. If he declines, we should look to trade him.

Been saying something similar for a few months now. At this point I would sign Beal to any sub max deal pretty much, just to avoid having to pay him 20 million.

I think Detroit is in a similar fix with Drummond. The 22 million dollar max deal they are going to end up paying him is so much worse than the 15 million dollar max deal Wall/George/Cousins got.

Anthony Davis is also going to get a Rose Rule max of 27 million that will make it harder for New Orleans to build around than it was for the teams who had #1 overall picks prior to the 2012 class.

Gortat's deal is going to be cheap once the big man tax jumps another 6-10 million. It's been about 19-20% of your cap for a starting caliber seven footer or good sub 7 foot big. That jumps the money from 11-13 million to 18 million on a 90 million dollar cap and 22 million for 108. In the last year's of his contract, Gortat, will be getting paid almost half the going rate for a comparable big.

I think this massive influx of TV money has also made OKC's decision to trade James Harden even more indefensible. That move already probably cost them titles in the last three seasons. But between Harden becoming the MVP runner up and the salary cap set to jump over 40 million dollars in two years, letting Harden go to pinch pennies and avoid paying a little luxury tax is completely inexcusable.

[stevemcqueen1]

Another idea, and this is going to be unpopular, but I would keep Kevin Seraphin this summer if I could get him for around 5 million per year. Full MLE money is about what you pay for a competent back up C currently--think Zaza Pachulia's deal. That's about 9% of the total cap. It'll be 8 million in '16 and 10 million in '17. Locking in Seraphin at almost half that is another way to cut costs for that summer.

[FAH1223]

Seraphin is a net negative on the court.

[Benjammin]

^I know they might have issues sharing the ball (Harden and Wall), but if Harden was up for grabs for Beal and scrap, that's looking even worse now with the huge increase in the cap coming.

[TGW]

^I know they might have issues sharing the ball (Harden and Wall), but if Harden was up for grabs for Beal and scrap, that's looking even worse now with the huge increase in the cap coming.

They would have had no problems at all. Wall is a very unselfish player.

[nate33]

Another idea, and this is going to be unpopular, but I would keep Kevin Seraphin this summer if I could get him for around 5 million per year. Full MLE money is about what you pay for a competent back up C currently--think Zaza Pachulia's deal. That's about 9% of the total cap. It'll be 8 million in '16 and 10 million in '17. Locking in Seraphin at almost half that is another way to cut costs for that summer.

I'd like to lock up somebody as a backup big for around $5M a year or less, but I'd prefer that somebody not be Seraphin. It's a near certainty that Seraphin is going to end up overpaid because he's an offensive minded player who "looks good" when he scores. We'd be much better off finding a low cost grunt like a Cole Aldrich, Alex Ajinca, Justin Hamilton or Jeff Withey. Those guys are better players than Seraphin, and will cost less.

[fishercob]

Another idea, and this is going to be unpopular, but I would keep Kevin Seraphin this summer if I could get him for around 5 million per year. Full MLE money is about what you pay for a competent back up C currently--think Zaza Pachulia's deal. That's about 9% of the total cap. It'll be 8 million in '16 and 10 million in '17. Locking in Seraphin at almost half that is another way to cut costs for that summer.

I'd like to lock up somebody as a backup big for around $5M a year or less, but I'd prefer that somebody not be Seraphin. It's a near certainty that Seraphin is going to end up overpaid because he's an offensive minded player who "looks good" when he scores. We'd be much better off finding a low cost grunt like a Cole Aldrich, Alex Ajinca, Justin Hamilton or Jeff Withey. Those guys are better players than Seraphin, and will cost less.

I'd target Aaron Baynes and Koufos.