The Troy Brown Thread

[NatP4]

Evan Turner would’ve been good if he ever developed that shot, and his looks almost identical to Brown’s. A career 80% free throw shooter as well.

He does seem to be in the mold of Otto/Sato/Kawhi type with the high effort, no ego, high feel for the game archetype.

It’s really about that 3pt shot for me. He defends, rebounds, makes plays with good vision, can slash.

[verbal8]

Waking up today, my enthusiasm for this franchise has never been lower. I'm trying really hard to find a silver lining here.

The pick wasn't traded with Gortat for cap space.

[verbal8]

If someone else loved Brown - I don't see how taking Lonnie Walker or Josh Okogie would be that big of a step down.

Given the shortage of assets and cap situation even a future 2nd would be a good help. If someone was willing to eat Meeks' salary Ted might consider EG the GM of the year.

Everyone always thinks trading up or down for scraps is a great idea. I don't think anyone was really going to accept a trade down to eat Meeks' contract and it's a pretty major assumption that they would have. Maybe some 2nd rounders? It depends who was targeting whom. Walker, I like. I'm not so sure I like Okogie as much. Sometimes you have to accept the picks you have. Being aggressive for aggressive's sake isn't necessarily a positive or a negative. The Bulls, generally a reasonably good drafting team, were super aggressive and traded down from Lamarcus Aldridge for Tyrus Thomas.

I would have loved to see the Wizards dump contracts (without trading picks) or buy other picks or stuff like that, but I can absolutely separate that from this current pick. I think this was a solid pick. There are about a million different reasons to criticize Ernie. Drafting Troy Brown isn't one of them.

In general, I see your point on accepting the draft positions that you have. I don't see a dramatic difference in the 15th through 20th picks(admittedly on very limited research). What it does seem is that Brown isn't quite as good as many of the other options. So in general fine for a 1st round pick, just a little disappointing for the 15th pick in this draft.

[nate33]

I don't think it's all that valuable to do evaluate a pick the day after it is made. We don't know any more than we knew the day before the draft. This pick might turn out well, and it might not. I'm not going to sit here and proclaim that I'm a superior talent evaluater than Ernie Grunfeld. I'm just a guy who read a few mock drafts the week before the draft.

The one thing that troubles me a bit is that it doesn't seem like EG does a very good job at evaluating the larger market as a whole. It's like he is playing poker and is only worried about the cards in his hand and not what's in everyone else's hand.

The fact is, Troy Brown was not ranked all that highly by any of the draft rankings I saw. It's a pretty good bet that other GM's weren't going to take him in the 15-20 range. With that in mind, I don't see why he didn't draft Zaire Smith who seemed to be at the top of a lot of boards at the time and then look to trade him. Worst case scenario is that we'd have a similar swing man who may or may not be better than Brown, and the best case scenario is that we trade down to #20 or so, dump Jason Smith's contract, and still land Troy Brown and pay him the rookie scale contract of a lower pick.

[I_Like_Dirt]

And that makes sense. If you don't see Brown as being as good as the other options, fair enough. I actually think he's better than most of the options out there, or at the very least, roughly equally good. I don't expect he's going to be the best player taken outside the lottery, but I also think the best player taken outside the lottery is going to come out of nowhere, because that's usually the case. I do think Brown is going to wind up having a solid NBA career and be on the better side of the players taken outside of the lottery, and that's actually pretty good. I think he's going to be a better player than Oubre, actually, and I don't hate Oubre's game - I just don't love it and am concerned that his ego is getting in his way.

For Brown specifically, a multi-tool defensive forward who can handle and pass is a pretty damn good start. If he does figure out how to shoot from a spot or two on the floor (and he doesn't need to shoot from everywhere, just key spots), then he's going to be one of those role players that all winning teams seem to have and everyone underrates, at worst. There's still a lot of work for him to put in and nothing is a give, but there's going to be a lot of work for every draft pick here, and nothing is a given. It makes no sense to me that people were praising OG Anunoby as being the kind of player that was stolen later in the draft and then criticize this pick. I don't like Brown quite as much as Anunoby, and there are some obvious differences overall, but he's still a solid pick. I do think Brown compares reasonably well to Caris Levert, and the Wizards could really use a Caris Levert.

[NatP4]

Except brown and Smith are nothing alike and we don’t know if Brown would’ve been there at pick X.

John Wall also said we need someone who can create in pick and rolls. That guy isn’t Zhaire Smith (right now), Troy Brown is that guy. We’ll see.

[gtn130]

Evan Turner would’ve been good if he ever developed that shot, and his looks almost identical to Brown’s. A career 80% free throw shooter as well.

Evan Turner was an amazing college player and one of the best prospects in the 2010 draft. If you mean that maybe Troy Brown will be resultant NBA player Evan Turner, then maybe, but Evan Turner is a demonstrably and unequivocally bad NBA player.

To me he seems like a slightly more athletic, slightly smaller version of Kyle Anderson, but was selected 15 spots higher.

[I_Like_Dirt]

Evan Turner was an amazing college player and one of the best prospects in the 2010 draft. If you mean that maybe Troy Brown will be resultant NBA player Evan Turner, then maybe, but Evan Turner is a demonstrably and unequivocally bad NBA player.

To me he seems like a slightly more athletic, slightly smaller version of Kyle Anderson, but was selected 15 spots higher.

Evan Turner as a freshman was not the same player as Evan Turner as a junior. Kyle Anderson was also drafted as a senior, and while he hasn't lit the world on fire, it's pretty clear that if the 2014 draft was redone, he would go much higher, because quite a few of the guys taken ahead of him are already out of the league.

[80sballboy]

I don't think it's all that valuable to do evaluate a pick the day after it is made. We don't know any more than we knew the day before the draft. This pick might turn out well, and it might not. I'm not going to sit here and proclaim that I'm a superior talent evaluater than Ernie Grunfeld. I'm just a guy who read a few mock drafts the week before the draft.

The one thing that troubles me a bit is that it doesn't seem like EG does a very good job at evaluating the larger market as a whole. It's like he is playing poker and is only worried about the cards in his hand and not what's in everyone else's hand.

The fact is, Troy Brown was not ranked all that highly by any of the draft rankings I saw. It's a pretty good bet that other GM's weren't going to take him in the 15-20 range. With that in mind, I don't see why he didn't draft Zaire Smith who seemed to be at the top of a lot of boards at the time and then look to trade him. Worst case scenario is that we'd have a similar swing man who may or may not be better than Brown, and the best case scenario is that we trade down to #20 or so, dump Jason Smith's contract, and still land Troy Brown and pay him the rookie scale contract of a lower pick.

Supposedly, Brown severely outplayed Smith in workouts. So they essentially chose a guy based on his interviews, workouts (where he shot it very well), IQ, etc. But what about his freshman season at Oregon? Solid but not overwhelming numbers though I guess you cay the same thing about Lonnie Walker.

[gtn130]

Evan Turner was an amazing college player and one of the best prospects in the 2010 draft. If you mean that maybe Troy Brown will be resultant NBA player Evan Turner, then maybe, but Evan Turner is a demonstrably and unequivocally bad NBA player.

To me he seems like a slightly more athletic, slightly smaller version of Kyle Anderson, but was selected 15 spots higher.

Evan Turner as a freshman was not the same player as Evan Turner as a junior. Kyle Anderson was also drafted as a senior, and while he hasn't lit the world on fire, it's pretty clear that if the 2014 draft was redone, he would go much higher, because quite a few of the guys taken ahead of him are already out of the league.

Kyle Anderson was a sophomore.

He was a bit older than Brown when drafted, though, so Brown probably has more upside, but Brown also doesn't have the benefit of playing for one of the best organizations in pro sports. If the Wizards drafted Kyle Anderson in 2014, he wouldn't be the same player.

[Dat2U]

What makes Ernie a terrible evaluator is that he doesn't make decisions based by what a player actually does in basketball games. He bases on the non-basketball stuff like personality, the ability to interview, the ability to play well one-one-one the day of the workout.

He drafted Brown b/c he impressed him with his IQ. IQ that was never displayed on the court. Zhaire on the other hand, oozes high IQ with his actual play and was hugely impactful in college while Troy was not. But because Troy was more eloquent in discussing plays and apparently played well that day, he's the pick despite being a late 1st round prospect at best.

This pick is the definition of a reach. It was like we traded down last night without dumping a contract.

You watch video of Brown and his playmaking, motor and D all say high bball IQ. It's fine not to like this pick but you've chosen the wrong reason.

What I like about Brown as compared to Smith is that he's taller, longer and capable of defending more positions. It will be interesting to see whether Brown or Smith turns out to be the better player.

High b-ball IQ is generally displayed in impact. On court results. What your referring to is a degree of skill he has displayed. And motor is more about effort than IQ, which I don't question.

Could Brown become a useful player in time? Sure. Would you feel that way about the vast majority of picks in the draft? You probably would. Will I root for Brown to prove me wrong and do well. Absolutely. But this pick was a miss when looking at the many options left on the board.

[gtn130]

I don't think it's all that valuable to do evaluate a pick the day after it is made. We don't know any more than we knew the day before the draft. This pick might turn out well, and it might not. I'm not going to sit here and proclaim that I'm a superior talent evaluater than Ernie Grunfeld. I'm just a guy who read a few mock drafts the week before the draft.

The one thing that troubles me a bit is that it doesn't seem like EG does a very good job at evaluating the larger market as a whole. It's like he is playing poker and is only worried about the cards in his hand and not what's in everyone else's hand.

The fact is, Troy Brown was not ranked all that highly by any of the draft rankings I saw. It's a pretty good bet that other GM's weren't going to take him in the 15-20 range. With that in mind, I don't see why he didn't draft Zaire Smith who seemed to be at the top of a lot of boards at the time and then look to trade him. Worst case scenario is that we'd have a similar swing man who may or may not be better than Brown, and the best case scenario is that we trade down to #20 or so, dump Jason Smith's contract, and still land Troy Brown and pay him the rookie scale contract of a lower pick.

Pretty much agree with this. The pick is egregiously bad not because of Brown specifically, but because of the perceived value of Brown relative to the slot he was picked. The Wizards should have traded back or simply picked Zhaire.

[NatP4]

Evan Turner would’ve been good if he ever developed that shot, and his looks almost identical to Brown’s. A career 80% free throw shooter as well.

Evan Turner was an amazing college player and one of the best prospects in the 2010 draft. If you mean that maybe Troy Brown will be resultant NBA player Evan Turner, then maybe, but Evan Turner is a demonstrably and unequivocally bad NBA player.

To me he seems like a slightly more athletic, slightly smaller version of Kyle Anderson, but was selected 15 spots higher.

Evan Turner was always a solid NBA role player because of his defense. Kyle Anderson was also 6th in RPM for small forwards in 2017-2018, 2nd in DRPM. Anderson averaged 10-7-4-2-1 per 36 on .582 TS% with a 15.9 PER. That’s a really good player. 6.1 win shares 4.2 BPM.

I also clearly said IF Evan Turner developed his 3pt shot, he would’ve been a good player

[I_Like_Dirt]

Brown also doesn't have the benefit of playing for one of the best organizations in pro sports. If the Wizards drafted Kyle Anderson in 2014, he wouldn't be the same player.

Sure, but absolutely every player drafted by the Wizards is going to have that same problem. This isn't unique to Brown. That said, Brown also isn't the quickest or most athletic player out there, but he's also not as slow as Anderson, either.

I will say, I do like Zhaire Smith as well, and would have been happy to see Ernie be aggressive and get him, too, but I don't think the differences in players are nearly so pronounced. Smith seems to get credit for shooting 3s well, but he barely took any. Brown shot 3s worse, but took more, suggesting he's at least comfortable with his range from more spots on the floor under more circumstances. If you look at their FTs, it seems likely that Brown is actually a better shooter than Smith at this stage. Brown is also a better passer and they're both good defensively, though Smith seems to get more credit for being a shotblocking guard, but Brown is a heady defender who gets more steals. I think overall they aren't so far apart and online fan sites made a bigger deal about certain things that was legitimately true.

[Dat2U]

I'm not going to sit here and proclaim that I'm a superior talent evaluater than Ernie Grunfeld.

Fine, because I will. I know I'm clearly better at evaulating NBA talent from a distance than he does up close. And it's not even close.

[gtn130]

Sure, but absolutely every player drafted by the Wizards is going to have that same problem.

Right, but I was referring to you saying Anderson should have been drafted higher.

That said, Brown also isn't the quickest or most athletic player out there, but he's also not as slow as Anderson, either.

Addressed that by saying Brown is 'slightly more athletic

[gtn130]

Evan Turner would’ve been good if he ever developed that shot, and his looks almost identical to Brown’s. A career 80% free throw shooter as well.

Evan Turner was an amazing college player and one of the best prospects in the 2010 draft. If you mean that maybe Troy Brown will be resultant NBA player Evan Turner, then maybe, but Evan Turner is a demonstrably and unequivocally bad NBA player.

To me he seems like a slightly more athletic, slightly smaller version of Kyle Anderson, but was selected 15 spots higher.

Evan Turner was always a solid NBA role player because of his defense. Kyle Anderson was also 6th in RPM for small forwards in 2017-2018, 2nd in DRPM. Anderson averaged 10-7-4-2-1 per 36 on .582 TS% with a 15.9 PER. That’s a really good player. 6.1 win shares 4.2 BPM.

I also clearly said IF Evan Turner developed his 3pt shot, he would’ve been a good player

Evan Turner has had a negative Net Rating for his entire career. His only decent year was with Brad in Boston.

Not gonna derail the thread any further arguing over whether Evan Turner is a good/solid basketball player or not, especially because you will simply never convince me that Evan Turner is or ever was a good or solid NBA player.

[I_Like_Dirt]

Take a look at the players drafted ahead of Anderson. Even if Anderson had gone to the Wizards, he still would be better than a lot of those guys.

That said, Anderson is a bit of an odd comparison for me as he's really unique with such an odd and extreme combination of strengths and weaknesses. I expect people are going to start changing their tune when Brown starts playing, which given Ernie and Brooks is probably a season from now. People hated Oubre, too, and he wasn't the best player taken, but he's been pretty good, though not amazing. I think Brown is better than Oubre.

[DCZards]

Pretty much agree with this.The pick is egregiously bad not because of Brown specifically, but because of the perceived value of Brown relative to the slot he was picked. The Wizards should have traded back or simply picked Zhaire.

"Egregiously bad?" Isn't that a bit of an overstatement? You don't draft players based on their "perceived value." If that were the case Robert Williams would never have fallen to #27.

I have no idea whether Brown or Smith will turn out to be better NBA player. And we don't know whether or not Brown would have gone with the 16th pick if the Zards had taken Smith with 15. Based on what I've seen and read Smith and Brown are fairly comparable. I think a case can be made for and against both of them. This stuff about Smith being demonstrably better than Brown is nonsense.

[FAH1223]

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