Presti's Tree Reaches DC: The Official Will Dawkins Thread

[Halcyon]

This board is having a meltdown over a role player. It's embarrassing

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[Endless Loop]

The only reasoning I can puzzle out is this:

1) They really really like how they think Bub will turn out. Their medical staff sees him growing, his growth plates are still open and they see considerable upside in where he may top out. First hand they have seen the benefit of a guy like SVA as a 6'6" PG. Bub has a lot of similar markers: a tall scoring PG who can dominate in the mid-range. If Bub gets to 6'6" or 6'7" while steadily improving, there's all-star opportunities in a player like that. Deni is good, but maybe at his top end he looks like a supplementary player to them, not a take-over guy.

This is the one thing you really CAN'T say. Because the trade was made before they had the slightest clue if Bub would still be on the board at 14. I mean, maybe the guy they really wanted was Topic, who they hoped would fall because of the knee. We just don't know. But they sure didn't know either. You just can't say the trade had anything to do with getting Bub.

[doclinkin]

The only reasoning I can puzzle out is this:

1) They really really like how they think Bub will turn out. Their medical staff sees him growing, his growth plates are still open and they see considerable upside in where he may top out. First hand they have seen the benefit of a guy like SVA as a 6'6" PG. Bub has a lot of similar markers: a tall scoring PG who can dominate in the mid-range. If Bub gets to 6'6" or 6'7" while steadily improving, there's all-star opportunities in a player like that. Deni is good, but maybe at his top end he looks like a supplementary player to them, not a take-over guy.

This is the one thing you really CAN'T say. Because the trade was made before they had the slightest clue if Bub would still be on the board at 14. I mean, maybe the guy they really wanted was Topic, who they hoped would fall because of the knee. We just don't know. But they sure didn't know either. You just can't say the trade had anything to do with getting Bub.

I think you can. They were trying to get 13 & 14 both it sounds like. They clearly had a few guys they really liked and were trying to catch them in a wide net. Scouts said there was strong depth in the late lotto and early teens. Maybe Topic fell, sure, but clearly Bub was one of the guys they had targeted. The top of the draft went fairly close to many mocks. Edey went early but even I predicted that one. I think they had a pretty good sense of who was going to be available.

[Menace2Sobriety]

This board is having a meltdown over a role player. It's embarrassing

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I think it’s less about the return and all agree with the intent / strategy to the rebuild.

However, many including myself believe 1) in the trajectory Deni is progressing and watching him grow and mature with us; 2) that he would have been the perfect person and player to lead the rebuild, exactly what the GM indicated he’s looking for; and 3) a super likable guy who has/would represent this organization well.

Which is too bad but time to move on. Sarr is a good pick.

[9 and 20]

It's kind of a meltdown but it's not just over Deni. It's the decades of losing, finally getting rid of Grundle only to end up with Grundle Jr. Then Tommy finally gets canned and it's been one underwhelming trade after another from Dawkins and Winger. Two of the guys we traded played important roles for the two finals teams. Beal was a good player for a long time and guys on his level get traded for way more than what he brought back (I understand the circumstances on the NTC, etc.), and now Deni gets traded for scraps after Bridges brings back a million first rounders.

Being a wiz fan has been a damn slog. Like sitting through a 40 year long presidential debate.

[penbeast0]

I think the Beal deal was excellent considering the circumstances. That gave me a lot of hope for this front office.

That said, getting so little for Porzingis was ridiculously bad as he still had a year on his contract and we could have stood firm and gotten more, getting Poole was awful, getting one 2nd for Morris who had been a decent starter for us was bad (but forced since we had gotten a virtual clone of him in Tyus Jones), not dealing Kuzma if he had value is not good for team development, the return for Gafford was light, and the return for Avdija was light. So, one great deal, one awful deal, 3 weak deals where one would think we could have gotten more if they were stronger bargainers.

We will see how this draft works out. Sarr is a high upside, high risk swing, Carrington was drafted very high and gets less slack than he should because he was the pick we traded Avdija for, and George was an unimpressive reserve on a bad college team though with good size and 3 point percentage. The front office needs to either have Sarr be a star or have him and one of the other two be solid players not to have lost this offseason.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

I think Deni was a fit stylistically, just not from a timeline perspective. Also not a guarantee his trade value continues to go up playing next to Kuzma (who's unfortunately still here).

What kind of timeline are you talking about? He's 23.

So please someone in this "he's wasn't in the timeline camp" please what you mean by they this. So is this rebuild going to take 2 years? 3 years? 4 years? 5 years? 6 years? 7 years?

So if we were in year 1 this year Deni was ages 22 and 23. If we go by years of rebuild years this is what it would have looked like:

Year 2: 23-24 years old
Year 3: 24-25 years old
Year 4: 25-26 years old
Year 5: 26-27 years old
Year 6: 27-28 years old
Year 7: 28-29 years old
Year 8: 29-30 years old
Year 9: 30-31 years old
Year 10: 31-32 years old

So given that players are in their primes from approximate say 27-21 years of age, Deni would just had just been at the tail end of his if this turned into a decades long rebuild. So even it this rebuild was on the extreme end and took 6 years we'd basically have a guy potentially entering his prime.

Again, this isn't stating that he would have been here forever. Maybe we draft Flagg and he made Deni expendable for another piece. Maybe Deni plateaus. Maybe he regresses. But this notion that he didn't fit the timeline is a mind numbingly, ridiculous talking point for those just trying to make this like it isn't a thing unless you believe every player on a team can only be two years apart.

Adding is not hard folks.

Clearly it's not that cut and dry. The players drafted in the past 2 years are 19, 21, 19, 18 and 19. This FO is shooting for homerun picks right now not role players. Deni, despite this board's sudden love of him, is a role player. Don't be surprised if Kispert is gone, and Vuc (21) is gone in a couple years too if his ceiling looks limited.

Can't wait to call in these receipts when Deni is playing great next year.

This notion that anyone doesn't score 20+ points a game is labeled a "role player" is a trash cliche. Unfinished product that finally got some latitude to try new out and we dump him. Another chapter of this franchise dumping guys just when they are about to become really valuable players.

I can't say for certain, but I think Dawkins and the folks defending his rash, petty move are going to be kicking themselves for letting a guy who should have been part of the rebuild given away for scraps.

The 14th pick is a homerun pick? Have fun drinking the kool-aid and when this rebuild fails because Dawkins is already showing he's not up to snuff.

Dawkins in 12 months netted us Poole, didn't trade Kuzma when he had the chance, and traded away our best young piece. Bilal hasn't proven nothing yet other than he's long, but somehow he gets the potential nod based off of that alone when you just jettisoned a 23 year-old, 6'9" do it all forward.

[NatP4]

It’s deflating to realize Will Dawkins was not at all the genius behind the OKC drafting in recent years. It’s absolutely all Sam Presti.

Dawkins had a great draft last year, bringing with him the strategy/intel from OKC, arriving in DC a week before the draft. OKC was reportedly in a bidding war with us for the rights to take Coulibaly at #7. That was Presti’s guy, and Dawkins knew it.

They lucked into Sarr because of the OKC connection, but the Carrington and George picks are really bad. OKC has ZERO history of ever taking bad/underwhelming/underproducing college players, especially in the 1st round.

It’s pretty sobering to watch the Thunder post-draft press conference and see a new FO member (Acie Law) up there with Presti as the next right hand man, sure to draw the interest of another team in the near future. Will Dawkins was just a guy.

[badinage]

This is what people need to realize: this pick of Carrington is a bigger deal than the Sarr pick. We had the 2; we didn’t have the 14; Dawkins had to jettison a 15/7 guy w/ 37% shooting from 3 + defense (on a great contract, and still improving) in order to acquire that pick. That’s a LOT. It’s a swing — inarguably. And if it works out, great; all hail, Will Dawkins. But if it doesn’t work out, then we can’t say: well, you win some and you lose some. No, that’s a major failure. And cause, I think, for assessing the viability of this person to be the GM of a rebuild.

Now, the question is — what does Carrington have to be, in 3 years for us to say: all hail, Will Dawkins?

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

It’s deflating to realize Will Dawkins was not at all the genius behind the OKC drafting in recent years. It’s absolutely all Sam Presti.

Dawkins had a great draft last year, bringing with him the strategy/intel from OKC, arriving in DC a week before the draft. OKC was reportedly in a bidding war with us for the rights to take Coulibaly at #7. That was Presti’s guy, and Dawkins knew it.

They lucked into Sarr because of the OKC connection, but the Carrington and George picks are really bad. OKC has ZERO history of ever taking bad/underwhelming/underproducing college players, especially in the 1st round.

It’s pretty sobering to watch the Thunder post-draft press conference and see a new FO member (Acie Law) up there with Presti as the next right hand man, sure to draw the interest of another team in the near future. Will Dawkins was just a guy.

I didn't realize that angle about draft intel, but it tracks with the decisions he's making.

[badinage]

It’s deflating to realize Will Dawkins was not at all the genius behind the OKC drafting in recent years. It’s absolutely all Sam Presti.

Dawkins had a great draft last year, bringing with him the strategy/intel from OKC, arriving in DC a week before the draft. OKC was reportedly in a bidding war with us for the rights to take Coulibaly at #7. That was Presti’s guy, and Dawkins knew it.

They lucked into Sarr because of the OKC connection, but the Carrington and George picks are really bad. OKC has ZERO history of ever taking bad/underwhelming/underproducing college players, especially in the 1st round.

It’s pretty sobering to watch the Thunder post-draft press conference and see a new FO member (Acie Law) up there with Presti as the next right hand man, sure to draw the interest of another team in the near future. Will Dawkins was just a guy.

OKC’s draft record isn’t quite as glowing as it seems. I just looked at the past 10 years. There are lots of whiffs. And some high-profile whiffs: Dieng, who they paid a huge sum to get. And they traded guys who panned out for other teams — Lively, Quickley.

The record pops, because they’ve hit on some big’uns: Holmgren, Jalen Williams, etc. They found Dort. They found Wiggins.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oklahoma_City_Thunder_draft_history

[NatP4]

Dieng just turned 21. Give him some time.

The draft record speaks for itself. Topic will be another home run. Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, Cason Wallace, Lu Dort undrafted. So many hits.

[badinage]

A lot of PICKS.

THAT’s how they did it, in large part.

I don’t think their hit rate is SO SO much higher than other good teams. But they’ve had a lot of at-bats, and in very good drafts. And they’ve had luck.

[NatP4]

A lot of PICKS.

THAT’s how they did it, in large part.

I don’t think their hit rate is SO SO much higher than other good teams. But they’ve had a lot of at-bats, and in very good drafts. And they’ve had luck.

A lot of picks and a much higher hit rate/better evaluation.

Jabari Smith was the consensus #1, they took Chet Holmgren over him. Home run

Kuminga was consensus ranked above Giddey, took Giddey, eventually flip him for Caruso. Home run

Nobody had Jalen Williams over Jalen Duren. Home run

Anyways. Will Dawkins is just a guy, just like everyone else from OKC that went on to larger roles with different organizations and failed. Sam Presti is THE GUY.

[badinage]

^ Holmgren was the obvious pick. Major whiff by Orlando.

All the guys you mention here, they all have the same things in common: length, the ability to handle, the ability to create.

That’s the template.

(And to be fair to Dawkins, that’s what he’s drafting as well. Bilal, Sarr, Carrington.)

Given that, it makes sense that they didn’t take Kuminga (natural talent and long, but lacking in handle and the ability to create), or Duren (same), or Smith (same).

[smoothSeph]

I mean, do we at least get to watch these guys play? lol

[doclinkin]

I think the Beal deal was excellent considering the circumstances. That gave me a lot of hope for this front office.

That said, getting so little for Porzingis was ridiculously bad as he still had a year on his contract and we could have stood firm and gotten more...

No. Zingus was an expiring contract. Unrestricted. His camp made clear he was going to walk to the highest bidder. But out of respect for Winger/Dawkins they did us a favor by allowing a sign and trade to Boston. So we got something for nothing. Also it was a 10 seconds to midnight sort of deal, closed at the last minute before he would have no longer been our player. I credit that one as a win given the circumstances. A nifty bit of GM work from a position of zero leverage.

[penbeast0]

I think the Beal deal was excellent considering the circumstances. That gave me a lot of hope for this front office.

That said, getting so little for Porzingis was ridiculously bad as he still had a year on his contract and we could have stood firm and gotten more...

No. Zingus was an expiring contract. Unrestricted. His camp made clear he was going to walk to the highest bidder. But out of respect for Winger/Dawkins they did us a favor by allowing a sign and trade to Boston. So we got something for nothing. Also it was a 10 seconds to midnight sort of deal, closed at the last minute before he would have no longer been our player. I credit that one as a win given the circumstances. A nifty bit of GM work from a position of zero leverage.

Ah, then I apologize. We sold cap space basically which, in that case, was fine.

[DCZards]

I’m sensing a real echo chamber of Dawkins is a “bad GM” because he didn’t draft who I would have drafted and/or he traded away a player I really like.

Seems like we should at least wait until the results are truly in before we start trashing the guy. But, then again, that might be asking for too much.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

I’m sensing a real echo chamber of Dawkins is a “bad GM” because he didn’t draft who I would have drafted and/or he traded away a player I really like.

Seems like we should at least wait until the results are truly in before we start trashing the guy. But, then again, that might be asking for too much.

It can be the he traded away a player that was liked because he was likes because he did a lot of different things well on the bball court. You could also say that Dawkins is getting flack because has had a bad track record so far including:

-Trading for Poole who was god awful for the vast majority of the season. Seems that some mediocre play towards the end of the season has erased that from memories.

-Passed on getting tangible assets for Kuzma because it's not a place Kuzma wanted to go to.

-Trading Deni for a 14th pick in draft everyone has been calling weakest drafts probably a decade (this isn't a narrative that those who are apoplectic about the trade made up out of convenience) for the past year and a 2029 pick (not POR's best pick from that year, but the second best) that is five years away and a complete unknown.

Those are three pretty big missteps outside of the draft after being on the job for a little over 12 months. His first pick he chose in Bilal wasn't all that good last season, though showed potential. Tristan had a good couple games as well, but jury is out on both. He also traded a second round pick this year to move up two spots for an uninspiring selection. Sarr, a fairly consensus pick where he was select (I would have taken Sheppard), has suddenly become a darling to this board after hundreds of pages of the draft thread where a large consensus were saying otherwise. The 14th pick also is a crap shoot PG who struggles to shoot the three and get into the lane (to pretty important skills for a PG), but admittedly had good size and apparently is a good mid-range shooter (a shot players are told not to take unless necessary). But some of you can say "home run" picks, and seemingly Dawkins will get a 6-year pass.