How Concerned — or Alarmed — Should We Be?

[AFM]

I'm more concerned about Bub and George. No comments on how they're clearly busts?

[payitforward]

That's nothing.

I just realized that I'm a little older than Coulibaly, Carrington, Sarr & George... combined! Now there you have something to be "concerned -- or alarmed" about.

Temporary however... next year they'll be older than me & I can find something else to be "concerned -- or alarmed" about. Like, I'll probably be older than the first 4 draft picks combined.

Not the first 5, however -- not until I'm almost 100. Maybe we'll have won a title by then...?

[FAH1223]

Not concerned. A little frustrated that Bilal's offense hasn't been robust as it was in the first few games.

[JWizmentality]

I've mostly lost interest and faith in this team and management honestly. It's why I'm hardly on here anymore. I can take losing, but I can't take losing and not competing. I enjoyed the early John Wall days because that team was fun. We lost but we gave every team a run for their money. We weren't getting azz blasted by 30, 40, 50 pts.

[payitforward]

Hey...! We miss you JWiz....

But this is a total rebuild. A tear down to the studs remake. It'll be some years before we're any good at all. The 2010 team, on the other hand, was full of veterans.

Can't guarantee results, obviously, but Dawkins is doing exactly the right thing.

[gambitx777]

So this is what bothers me. Every one complained about needing a reboot. This is what a ture reboot looks like. How long was Orlando bad? How long was OKC bad. How long at Detroit been bad.like we were in that we lost a lot but we were good days. Treading water days. Trust the process. Cuz this is the only way.

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[JWizmentality]

Hey...! We miss you JWiz....

But this is a total rebuild. A tear down to the studs remake. It'll be some years before we're any good at all. The 2010 team, on the other hand, was full of veterans.

Can't guarantee results, obviously, but Dawkins is doing exactly the right thing.

Just had my first boy, so that takes all my time.

I hope he knows what he's doing. Other than Bilal, none of the other young guys strike me as anything special. Especially Sarr.

[JWizmentality]

So this is what bothers me. Every one complained about needing a reboot. This is what a ture reboot looks like. How long was Orlando bad? How long was OKC bad. How long at Detroit been bad.like we were in that we lost a lot but we were good days. Treading water days. Trust the process. Cuz this is the only way.

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Yea but even those teams weren't this bad.

[Benjammin]

Fewer teams are in overt tanking mode and there is a great deal of parity in the Association.

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[leswizards]

Basically all of the Wizards end of the bench garbage is outplaying all the players the team is invested in. Not sure what I am supposed to be hopeful for.

[doclinkin]

Cooper Flagg. Dylan Harper. Ace Bailey. JT Toppin. Etc etc.

[DCZards]

Basically all of the Wizards end of the bench garbage is outplaying all the players the team is invested in. Not sure what I am supposed to be hopeful for.

The only end of bench players that are consistently playing well are Champagnie and Butler…and both are older and more experienced than the 19 and 20 yr olds that I assume you’re referring to.

[payitforward]

What is all this bellyaching about? You want a pain-free rebuild? You want a quick transition to contention?

Nor going to happen. Boo hoo.

[The Consiglieri]

If I'm concerned about anything, it's not the young players, who have been moderately disappointing but still look like NBA players and not a collection of Chris Singletons. I am still kinda concerned that Deni trade still seemed light on return, they didn't trade Kuz when they had a chance, and Tyus Jones didn't return anything at all and signed for the minimum. This year's deadline is a big test.

Why? We have no assets anyone wants so bad they'd give us anything of substantial value for. The last opportunity we had was with Kuzma last winter (and Deni over the summer) and we blew it with Kuzma. The reasoning wasn't crazy, the contract would be more valuable with time, my counter was: he's old and can get injured, best to get the going while its hot, rather than dance w/age and injury risk, well, both of those issues decided to crop up this year and now he's not worth much.

Color me skeptical about this deadline. I'm sure they will be working to move guys but this window will be about freeing up minutes rather than asset return, as all of these guys are worth next to nothing.

We basically got next to nothing with the building block pieces we had available to move 2-3 years ago. So as a result, if all we get out of these assets are speculative things of value in a few years (pick swaps with the Suns as they age out, a Portland 1st, a bunch of 2nds etc), well, the saving grace is going to be what has happened: that if nothing else, we basically guaranteed bottom 5 finishes ahead of the '25 and '26 classes at the very least, if not one more. The deadline is unlikely to yield much of lasting value beyond Bub, maybe a trade swap or two, maybe that Blazers first, nearly all a long way off (I think the first swap is in '26, but for now anyway, definitely seems like we'll be worse than Phoenix in '26 barring a miracle).

I'm just assuming your interest in the trade deadline is about freeing up playing time.

[payitforward]

In hindsight, it is obvious that it would have been a good idea to trade Kuzma to Dallas. If you want to find a mistake to pin on Dawkins, that's it. OTOH, given his declining contract, it was perfectly easy to believe that his trade value would not decline -- & might even increase somewhat. Yet... as the saying goes, "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush."

Of course, not all the people here who are saying "we shoulda moved him back then" were actually saying that back then!

[doclinkin]

The deadline is unlikely to yield much of lasting value beyond Bub, maybe a trade swap or two, maybe that Blazers first, nearly all a long way off (I think the first swap is in '26, but for now anyway, definitely seems like we'll be worse than Phoenix in '26 barring a miracle).

Doesn't matter if PHX is better than us. If they miss the playoffs, we own their lotto balls since any swap is determined after the lotto position.

Even with the worst record in the league, the greatest chance is that you pick 5th.
Only 14% chance to get the 1st pick.
But a 47.9% chance to pick 5th since every team in the lotto has a chance to hurdle you.

Say the Suns are the 10th worst team in the league in 26. Durant will be 37 next year, 10 years past NBA prime with a rebuilt achilles. Booker plays a hard 37 minutes a game, driving head first into traffic, getting hacked more than anyone else on the team. We know Beal is basically a pinata in the shape of a basketball player, he's never fully healthy. Lose any two of the above and they struggle against the young and rising West.

Imagine they are 10th and we are worst. With their lotto combos we now have a 17% chance at the #1 pick. Not great, but better than the current system where the 3 worst teams have the same number of lotto combos. Gives us a slight edge. More importantly we now have a 66% chance at a top 4 selection. 50.1% at top 3. A better than 1 in 3 chance at a top 2 pick. Every tidbit matters when you are trying to get luckier than everyone else.

So we are stockpiling lotto combos. Stockpiling picks for 1st round selections. And building an arsenal of 2nd round picks that can be used as assets even if they are not spent to pick and develop a player. Over the next 5 years we have what, twelve 2nd round picks right now? Dawkins uses those freely in trades. Its how we got Valanciunas (sign and trade). And Bilal (trade up one slot). And Kyshawn (trade up 2 slots).

That's why there's more hope than alarm. It's not about this years assets, its the fact that we are cratering at a time when scouts predict 2 historically strong drafts in a row. And we are positioned to take advantage of it since we haven't borrowed from our future as we did under prior administrations. That plus, despite losing, the youngest players have shown flashes of ability where you could imagine that they will be good eventually if they can figure out how to consistently play to their talent level.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

Of course not there should be no alarm.

The 2nd pick the in the draft, a 7'0'' C (sorry, I meant born again PF) with 39/27/66 shooting splits, just took 18 shots in a game which means it's only a matter of time before he's a f**cking star. He may have only made 6 shots, but he shows he's got gusto and courage to be a grade A alpha dawg. Every game there are flashes, sparks, and smoke, it's like watching an extra pyrotechnic show after the starting line-ups with this guy.

[DCZards]

During a recent home game, this was the lineup for a short period of time. Probably my favorite:

Champagnie – Maybe the season’s most pleasant surprise.
Butler – A steady hand. Plays with poise and patience...and gets to the rim.
Bilal – A defender and high riser. Offensive game is inconsistent but coming along.
Sarr - A long, athletic, 19 yr old 7 footer with a ton of raw talent. Potential game-changer on D.
Bub – A 6-4 guard who loves to hoop and compete. B'More tough and a future team leader.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

During a recent home game, this was the lineup for a short period of time. Probably my favorite:

Champagnie – Maybe the season’s most pleasant surprise.
Butler – A steady hand. Plays with poise and patience...and gets to the rim.
Bilal – A defender and high riser. Offensive game is inconsistent but coming along.
Sarr - A long, athletic, 19 yr old 7 footer with a ton of raw talent. Potential game-changer on D.
Bub – A 6-4 guard who loves to hoop and compete. B'More tough and a future team leader.

Is that you Chris Miller?

[doclinkin]

Ha! Chris Miller would get the basic facts and terminology wrong. You wish our homer in the booth would be a little better informed, then you didn't have to instantly dismiss whatever he said. Buck and Phil were great at that with measured and reasonable critique of our own guys. Praise for opponents as well. Though you know, they were clearly burned out from watching decades of losses LOL.