Political Roundtable Part XXXIV

[Zonkerbl]

Ok, here is an article about "economic anxiety" that doesn't make me want to strangle anyone for not realizing it is code for "why can't I be racist"

Makes an interesting case that it is legit and a symptom of a compositional problem, which is the one thing that tends to make economic theory barf and produce the exact opposite prediction from what happens in real life. This paragraph is an excellent example:

"The economists look at the effects of the China Shock from two angles: how it affected places and how it affected people. They find that on metrics such as employment rates, the places hit by the China Shock mostly recovered by 2019. A different set of industries rose in the ashes of manufacturing, offering residents jobs at places like big-box stores, restaurants, schools and health care facilities.

But, the economists find, the people who were hurt by the China Shock did not recover. Manufacturing workers did not transition to these new sectors. The economists find that the people who took the new jobs, concentrated in the service sector, were often newcomers and demographically different, including immigrants, U.S.-born Latinos and younger workers with college degrees. Meanwhile, the ladders in manufacturing that once provided workers without a college diploma a solid wage and upward mobility were kicked over."

This I can believe. Economic theory is agnostic about *who* things happen to. Our models treat one person losing their job and another person taking the new job that is created to replace it (what happened in reality) exactly the same as a person losing their job and then retraining and getting the new job (what economists naively thought would happen). It doesn't *excuse* Trump supporters' current evil racism, but it does *explain* it. But to be clear, just because it is easy to understand why you have chosen to be evil does not relieve you of responsibility for making that choice. Also, "telling me I'm evil is not sufficient to convince me not to be evil" is a YOU problem, not a ME problem.

It is true that globalization has created a lot of suffering that Dems turned a blind eye to, and are still blind to. Bernie Sanders tried to wake them up and they just stuck their fingers in their ears and yelled "LALALALALALAAAA" BTW, growing up in Ohio in the 80s in a family with close union connections we were VERY familiar with how racist and xenophobic your average white union member was, despite being a loyal Dem voter. So the Dems abandonment of those voters may have been more intentional than I imply here.

And by "them" I mean my next door neighbors in DC and childhood friends, not just Dem leadership

https://www.npr.org/2025/02/11/g-s1-47352/why-economists-got-free-trade-with-china-so-wrong

[montestewart]

Read on Twitter

?t=ATNJjg0D9yNF-I-l5ZsLzQ&s=19

Read on Twitter

?t=faWpAxw-ZicMePnA6vYRpw&s=19

Usually ethnic cleansing is performed in house, but outsourcing to the United States and having the U.S. taxpayers underwrite it makes a lot of sense.

[Zonkerbl]

What really gets my goat is that Trump proved Putin right. The Soviets were always saying we are just as bad as they are, stop pretending to be all good and holy and righteous. And we were like no no, Capitalism is inherently good, we're the good guys. And we're not and Trump proves it. The first sign that guaranteeing constitutional freedoms is at all inconvenient we set the Constitution on fire instantly.

I can't believe we helped defeat Hitler, and we brought down the Soviet Union (eventually, eyeroll) and the one tyrant we couldn't defeat was Trump. That's the guy who was too powerful for us. Pathetic.

[pancakes3]

i'd argue that the concept of american exceptionalism, as envisioned by both R's and D's, inevitably brought about trump.

R's subscribe to the white nationalist brand of american exceptionalism that has led to their isolationist, xenophobic worldview, and the fear created in such an atmosphere allowed Trump to rise to prominence.

D's subscribe to the city-on-a-hill brand of american exceptionalism where they really thought that it was our system of government that would survive any sort of authoritarian takeover, that democracy would prevail, and not put any effort into political strategy, messaging, or articulated platform to campaigning (not to mention 0 actions to counteract the behind-the-scenes politicking of Republicans like local media takeover, national media takeover/discreditation, buying local judges, buying local elections, gerrymandering, coordination of state AG offices, project 2025, etc.).

Americans are just people. Same as Russians, Chinese, Israelis, whoever. We are just as susceptible to snakeoil, possibly more than the average human, due to the majority of our population being descendants of religious fanatics. And Americans are capable of producing sociopathic authoritarian strongmen who crave power and capitalize on the the worst instincts of the people to ascend to power. I would say it's inevitable, except there should be other people who crave power but still respect the constitution enough to do their best to keep the hitlers, maos, stalins, and trumps at bay. But it requires diligence, like weeding a garden. If we lapse in our diligence, and let R's do what they did for the past 50 years in eroding away the guardrails of democracy, then yeah, this seems inevitable.

[Zonkerbl]

i'd argue that the concept of american exceptionalism, as envisioned by both R's and D's, inevitably brought about trump.

R's subscribe to the white nationalist brand of american exceptionalism that has led to their isolationist, xenophobic worldview, and the fear created in such an atmosphere allowed Trump to rise to prominence.

D's subscribe to the city-on-a-hill brand of american exceptionalism where they really thought that it was our system of government that would survive any sort of authoritarian takeover, that democracy would prevail, and not put any effort into political strategy, messaging, or articulated platform to campaigning (not to mention 0 actions to counteract the behind-the-scenes politicking of Republicans like local media takeover, national media takeover/discreditation, buying local judges, buying local elections, gerrymandering, coordination of state AG offices, project 2025, etc.).

Americans are just people. Same as Russians, Chinese, Israelis, whoever. We are just as susceptible to snakeoil, possibly more than the average human, due to the majority of our population being descendants of religious fanatics. And Americans are capable of producing sociopathic authoritarian strongmen who crave power and capitalize on the the worst instincts of the people to ascend to power. I would say it's inevitable, except there should be other people who crave power but still respect the constitution enough to do their best to keep the hitlers, maos, stalins, and trumps at bay. But it requires diligence, like weeding a garden. If we lapse in our diligence, and let R's do what they did for the past 50 years in eroding away the guardrails of democracy, then yeah, this seems inevitable.

Agree that the Republicans played the game much more competently than the Dems have. Really relying on "we're the good guys" without doing the work necessary to maintain party discipline and hold everybody together/keep everybody happy. Republicans did it with abortion, forty year long effort where they battled and battled and battled, keeping the extremists happy with small victories, until the walls fell down and the barbarians stormed through the gates.

Very similar to the prime ministership of Neville Chamberlain whose cowardice and passivity contributed significantly to Hitler's early successes.

[Zonkerbl]

Ok, I was skeptical at first of this article - if I had a nickel for every half baked self proclaimed genius who thinks he's figured out what's wrong with how economists measure things, woof - but this gibes with my intuition that the fundamental problem in the US is that there's a small minority of 10-20% of independent entrepreneurs (on the GOP side) and college educated wage earners (on the Dem side) who are the *only* people benefitting from the status quo and also happen to be in charge of their respective parties, and the other 80% whose income has stagnated since Reagan are getting the shaft. So this guy argues that the way we measure inflation and economic growth doesn't try to measure how the lower 80% are doing and thus we have no idea that they are, on average, actually worse off since COVID.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/02/11/democrats-tricked-strong-economy-00203464

My one objection to this article is it implies this is something new when in fact it has been well known, in academic circles anyway, that the US' income distribution is the most skewed of all the high income countries and getting more skewed over time, and that we first started observing this under Reagan. But the insight that the headline statistics we report are misleading is a valuable contribution to the conversation. Having numbers that keep saying everything is fine is not doing anyone any favors - it's just not true. It's only true for the top 20%.

The problem is where do you draw the line - you have to be scientific about it. Just arbitrarily saying "well we should have a CPI that flat out excludes "luxuries"" has been tried before and it's extremely subjective and unreliable. I think a standard set of indicators that are broken out by quintile or decile would be much more useful, particularly because the lowest decile's income has actually, horrifyingly, started to decline in recent years. Reporting on "functional" unemployment - you meet the strict definition of being "employed" but are earning less than a poverty wage - would be a useful thing to track over time. The fact that 25% of us or whatever is functionally unemployed actually tells me nothing, without a comparison to other countries with similar incomes. What would help is to know if this number is getting bigger or smaller over time.

[montestewart]

What really gets my goat is that Trump proved Putin right. The Soviets were always saying we are just as bad as they are, stop pretending to be all good and holy and righteous. And we were like no no, Capitalism is inherently good, we're the good guys. And we're not and Trump proves it. The first sign that guaranteeing constitutional freedoms is at all inconvenient we set the Constitution on fire instantly.

I can't believe we helped defeat Hitler, and we brought down the Soviet Union (eventually, eyeroll) and the one tyrant we couldn't defeat was Trump. That's the guy who was too powerful for us. Pathetic.

In a democracy, a leader doesn’t have to actually be strong, he just has to have a good sales pitch.

[AFM]

alexa play that HL Mencken quote, or the other one, or the other one....

[montestewart]

alexa play that HL Mencken quote, or the other one, or the other one....

“The journey of a thousand year Reich begins with a single coup”

[Zonkerbl]

Ok, here is an article about "economic anxiety" that doesn't make me want to strangle anyone for not realizing it is code for "why can't I be racist"

Makes an interesting case that it is legit and a symptom of a compositional problem, which is the one thing that tends to make economic theory barf and produce the exact opposite prediction from what happens in real life. This paragraph is an excellent example:

"The economists look at the effects of the China Shock from two angles: how it affected places and how it affected people. They find that on metrics such as employment rates, the places hit by the China Shock mostly recovered by 2019. A different set of industries rose in the ashes of manufacturing, offering residents jobs at places like big-box stores, restaurants, schools and health care facilities.

But, the economists find, the people who were hurt by the China Shock did not recover. Manufacturing workers did not transition to these new sectors. The economists find that the people who took the new jobs, concentrated in the service sector, were often newcomers and demographically different, including immigrants, U.S.-born Latinos and younger workers with college degrees. Meanwhile, the ladders in manufacturing that once provided workers without a college diploma a solid wage and upward mobility were kicked over."

This I can believe. Economic theory is agnostic about *who* things happen to. Our models treat one person losing their job and another person taking the new job that is created to replace it (what happened in reality) exactly the same as a person losing their job and then retraining and getting the new job (what economists naively thought would happen). It doesn't *excuse* Trump supporters' current evil racism, but it does *explain* it. But to be clear, just because it is easy to understand why you have chosen to be evil does not relieve you of responsibility for making that choice. Also, "telling me I'm evil is not sufficient to convince me not to be evil" is a YOU problem, not a ME problem.

It is true that globalization has created a lot of suffering that Dems turned a blind eye to, and are still blind to. Bernie Sanders tried to wake them up and they just stuck their fingers in their ears and yelled "LALALALALALAAAA" BTW, growing up in Ohio in the 80s in a family with close union connections we were VERY familiar with how racist and xenophobic your average white union member was, despite being a loyal Dem voter. So the Dems abandonment of those voters may have been more intentional than I imply here.

And by "them" I mean my next door neighbors in DC and childhood friends, not just Dem leadership

https://www.npr.org/2025/02/11/g-s1-47352/why-economists-got-free-trade-with-china-so-wrong

I gotta say, this whole "places vs people" perspective thing is a schlock. It's a "shareholder" perspective vs. a "laborer" perspective.

The shareholder doesn't care who does the work or what happens to them and neither do economic indicators. That's the issue. A longitudinal survey following individual workers is what would tell you the true story. Assuming what happens to individual workers is of interest to you.

[AFM]

It's just common sense--asset holders don't care as much about inflation. It can even be beneficial in many cases. But if most of your paycheck goes to food and rent, you are probably fcked.

Here's a nice graph:




B-b-but the economy is good!!!!

I own my condo by the way, so I'm not even talking about myself. But many americans will never own a home. Ever.

[DCZards]

What really gets my goat is that Trump proved Putin right. The Soviets were always saying we are just as bad as they are, stop pretending to be all good and holy and righteous. And we were like no no, Capitalism is inherently good, we're the good guys. And we're not and Trump proves it. The first sign that guaranteeing constitutional freedoms is at all inconvenient we set the Constitution on fire instantly.

I can't believe we helped defeat Hitler, and we brought down the Soviet Union (eventually, eyeroll) and the one tyrant we couldn't defeat was Trump. That's the guy who was too powerful for us. Pathetic.

That’s sad…isn’t it. With the election of Trump, we’ve shown that Americans by and large are immoral. And with the shutting down of USAID we’re proving that we’re also inhumane.

Of course, it’s not the American people who do these evil things…but we too often look the other way when our evil leaders do harm…even to fellow Americans. Sad.

[Zonkerbl]

What really gets my goat is that Trump proved Putin right. The Soviets were always saying we are just as bad as they are, stop pretending to be all good and holy and righteous. And we were like no no, Capitalism is inherently good, we're the good guys. And we're not and Trump proves it. The first sign that guaranteeing constitutional freedoms is at all inconvenient we set the Constitution on fire instantly.

I can't believe we helped defeat Hitler, and we brought down the Soviet Union (eventually, eyeroll) and the one tyrant we couldn't defeat was Trump. That's the guy who was too powerful for us. Pathetic.

That’s sad…isn’t it. With the election of Trump, we’ve shown that Americans by and large are immoral. And with the shutting down of USAID we’re proving that we’re also inhumane.

Of course, it’s not the American people who do these evil things…but we too often look the other way when our evil leaders do harm…even to fellow Americans. Sad.

I mean - we elected him, and he claims this is what we all voted for. So by the transitive property we are responsible for his actions. If what he does is evil, the people who voted for him are evil. Or stupid? But I'm less inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt this time around. We all knew who he is and what he planned to do. Come on.

[AFM]

That’s essentially victim blaming. If a career con man snake oil salesman fools a very low IQ electorate into voting for him, they aren’t “evil”. Just born stupid.

[pancakes3]

Multiple failures. The voting public, yep. The RNC, letting Trump hijack the party. The DNC for failing to beat him TWICE. His primary opponents. Hilary and Kamala for not running good enough campaigns. The media for trying to adhere to "fair and balanced" without any additional thought as to whether that's warranted. RBG for not retiring. Obama for not filling in judicial vacancies, not pushing more legislation through in 2011, drone striking civilians, putting kids in cages, etc. Garland for not prosecuting Trump, J6, etc. fast enough, or appointing Jack Smith early enough.

Everyone just keep thinking it's all a big joke. Haha, Vance f*cks couches. Stupid runs on both sides of the aisle, and it runs deep.

[Silvie Lysandra]

It is true that globalization has created a lot of suffering that Dems turned a blind eye to, and are still blind to. Bernie Sanders tried to wake them up and they just stuck their fingers in their ears and yelled "LALALALALALAAAA" BTW, growing up in Ohio in the 80s in a family with close union connections we were VERY familiar with how racist and xenophobic your average white union member was, despite being a loyal Dem voter. So the Dems abandonment of those voters may have been more intentional than I imply here.

And by "them" I mean my next door neighbors in DC and childhood friends, not just Dem leadership

https://www.npr.org/2025/02/11/g-s1-47352/why-economists-got-free-trade-with-china-so-wrong

Personally, even if the Dems had said "hey, here's the keys to the kingdom" to Bernie in 2016, it would have slowed, not stopped the bleeding unless Bernie made *major* concessions on the social front, which would have been a big issue for a huge part of the party. Keep in mind that Bernie 2016 was a cultural moderate and to the right of the party consensus on things like guns and immigration.

The erosion of the white working class was baked in the moment the ink was dry on the 1964 Civil Rights Act. Or at minimum, Hart-Cellar. Which would have been fine, but what Dems didn't bank on is Latinos starting to vote more and more like the white working class (or at least, if they did, not for the most anti-immigration President since Eisenhower).

To a large degree, the divorce was mutual, based on irreconcilable differences (the WWC wasn't feeling a multi-racial coalition, the Dems came to define itself as the party of Civil Rights and education as opposed to fighting for primarily the *white* working class).

Also, it's important to note that the bottom didn't *truly* drop out until the party became hardline anti-gun and pro-environment (this in particular is what killed the Dems in Appalachia, not economics)

[DCZards]

What really gets my goat is that Trump proved Putin right. The Soviets were always saying we are just as bad as they are, stop pretending to be all good and holy and righteous. And we were like no no, Capitalism is inherently good, we're the good guys. And we're not and Trump proves it. The first sign that guaranteeing constitutional freedoms is at all inconvenient we set the Constitution on fire instantly.

I can't believe we helped defeat Hitler, and we brought down the Soviet Union (eventually, eyeroll) and the one tyrant we couldn't defeat was Trump. That's the guy who was too powerful for us. Pathetic.

That’s sad…isn’t it. With the election of Trump, we’ve shown that Americans by and large are immoral. And with the shutting down of USAID we’re proving that we’re also inhumane.

Of course, it’s not the American people who do these evil things…but we too often look the other way when our evil leaders do harm…even to fellow Americans. Sad.

I mean - we elected him, and he claims this is what we all voted for. So by the transitive property we are responsible for his actions. If what he does is evil, the people who voted for him are evil. Or stupid? But I'm less inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt this time around. We all knew who he is and what he planned to do. Come on.

Actually, “we” didn’t elect him. And those who ignored his despicable character and voted for him are either stupid or naive…maybe both.

[Zonkerbl]

That’s essentially victim blaming. If a career con man snake oil salesman fools a very low IQ electorate into voting for him, they aren’t “evil”. Just born stupid.

Victim blaming is people saying they voted for Trump because Zonker said they were evil.

The "too stupid to know how evil Trump is" excuse might have been valid in 2016 but not after Jan 6. That's mustache twirling cartoon villain ish. That's evil and everyone knew it.

[AFM]

Not really. Half the country loves him and think he's the second coming of christ. But you'll never learn. 4 years from now we'll be having the same conversation on here about President Vance or President Taylor Greene or whoever.

[Zonkerbl]

Lying to yourself that the evil person you love isn't, in fact, evil, is not stupidity. It's just a more pathetic form of evil.

It's important. If we believe these people are stupid we'll waste a ton of time trying to "inform" them. Pointless. Evil people have to be shocked into seeing how evil they are and the impact their evil deeds have on their neighbors. MLK Jr style. Provoke them into showing just how violent and depraved they are, capture it on camera and shame them before the world. If they can't be shamed, well, Malcolm X had some ideas about that. 2nd amendment exists for a reason. Or we could secede. But the time for educating the innocently ignorant is over. Everyone saw what happened on jan 6 and made a choice. There are no ignorant voters out there, there are voters who have embraced evil and refuse to be persuaded.