Predict the Wizards Record '13-'14 season.

[dckingsfan]

And that would be good enough for the 6th seed

[pineappleheadindc]

Nivek - predictor please

Okay...

The various numbers are converging on the Wizards going 6-3 to finish out the season. That would put them at 44-38.

Here are the odds of them winning their remaining games:

Code: Select all

DATE            PLACE   OPP     ODDS    W-L
03/31/14        A       CHA     48%     L
04/02/14        H       BOS     63%     W
04/04/14        A       NYK     49%     L
04/05/14        H       CHI     54%     W
04/09/14        H       CHA     58%     W
04/11/14        A       ORL     55%     W
04/12/14        H       MIL     69%     W
04/14/14        H       MIA     46%     L
04/16/14        A       BOS     53%     W



Oh noes. You just cannot have the Wiz win 44 games.

Nate guessing the number of wins contest correctly -- yeah, I get that. But if we let *Donkey* be a co-winner in the contest, I'm afraid that the shock will create a rip in the fabric of space itself, threatening the entire universe.

Can't let that happen.

[dckingsfan]

Nivek - predictor please

Okay...

The various numbers are converging on the Wizards going 6-3 to finish out the season. That would put them at 44-38.

Here are the odds of them winning their remaining games:

Code: Select all

DATE            PLACE   OPP     ODDS    W-L
03/31/14        A       CHA     48%     L
04/02/14        H       BOS     63%     W
04/04/14        A       NYK     49%     L
04/05/14        H       CHI     54%     W
04/09/14        H       CHA     58%     W
04/11/14        A       ORL     55%     W
04/12/14        H       MIL     69%     W
04/14/14        H       MIA     46%     L
04/16/14        A       BOS     53%     W



Nivek is one for one...

[dckingsfan]

Nivek - predictor please

Okay...

The various numbers are converging on the Wizards going 6-3 to finish out the season. That would put them at 44-38.

Here are the odds of them winning their remaining games:

Code: Select all

DATE            PLACE   OPP     ODDS    W-L
03/31/14        A       CHA     48%     L
04/02/14        H       BOS     63%     W
04/04/14        A       NYK     49%     L
04/05/14        H       CHI     54%     W
04/09/14        H       CHA     58%     W
04/11/14        A       ORL     55%     W
04/12/14        H       MIL     69%     W
04/14/14        H       MIA     46%     L
04/16/14        A       BOS     53%     W



2 fer 2

[Nivek]

Over at the blog, I ran some numbers on the remaining schedules for the Wizards, Raptors, Bulls, Nets and Bobcats, and then for the odds of the Wizards winning a playoff series against the teams in the playoffs as of last night's games.

Basically, it looks like 44 wins, the 6th seed and a first round matchup with Toronto. I've estimated the Wizards odds of winning a 7-game series against the Raptors at 32%.

[hands11]

82 - WizardsWorld
57 - deneem4
56 - jeffsays
52 - Chaos Revenant
51 - Wizardspride
50 - JWizmentality,Chocolate City Jordanaire, Bigwig
49 - AFM, Hands11, nuposse04
48 - Joe_Wiz, Bleacher Report, dobrojim, FreeBalling, LyricalRico
47 - TwentyOne920, zardsfan, jimij, CntOutSmrtCrazy, Zonkerbl, evolushunize, dorianwrite, Halcyon
46 - Jimmy (for the) Recard, sfam, CaPtaiN eYeSaNo
45 - Rafael122, Fischella, Deeptu McPullup, JAR69, Severn Hoos, MDStar, Illuminaire
44 - dangermouse, nate33, gesa2, montestewart, TheKingOfVa360, Payitforward, Donkey McDonkerton
43 - Wallbeliever, Higga, BarnabyJones, willbcocks, DallasShalDune, rockymac52, Nivek, DaSwami
42 - miller31time, TheBabyMaker, stevemcqueen1, barelyawake, GhostsOfGil, Keynote, thelvh.com
41 - long suffrin' boulez fan, sashae, WizStorm, dandridge 10, fishercob, The Consiglieri
40 - The Fax, pineappleheadindc, DaRealHibachi, hoopsworld.com, docsports.com
39 - DCKingsFan, tontoz, Dat2U, OffTheWall2, Bovada.LV, Sportsbook.com
38 - Ruzious, Dark Faze, Hypnotizer
37 - Earth2Ted, The Consiglieri, SUPERBALLMAN, JonathanJoseph, bulletproof_32, Upper Decker, doclinkin
36 - truwizfan4evr, MJG, Closg00, Benjammin
35 - FAH1223, AnotherFinn, BigA, pancakes3
34 - TGW, verbal8
32 - queridiculo
31 - Floater
30 - Knighthonor
27 - Upper Decker, Induveca

On the hot plate
40 - The Fax, pineappleheadindc, DaRealHibachi, hoopsworld.com, docsports.com
45 - Rafael122, Fischella, Deeptu McPullup, JAR69, Severn Hoos, MDStar, Illuminaire

edited post CHI Lose- 5 games to go

Bumped for easy access.

[Rafael122]

Over at the blog, I ran some numbers on the remaining schedules for the Wizards, Raptors, Bulls, Nets and Bobcats, and then for the odds of the Wizards winning a playoff series against the teams in the playoffs as of last night's games.

Basically, it looks like 44 wins, the 6th seed and a first round matchup with Toronto. I've estimated the Wizards odds of winning a 7-game series against the Raptors at 32%.

So you're saying there's a chance...what are the odds against the Nets and Bulls?

[Nivek]

Over at the blog, I ran some numbers on the remaining schedules for the Wizards, Raptors, Bulls, Nets and Bobcats, and then for the odds of the Wizards winning a playoff series against the teams in the playoffs as of last night's games.

Basically, it looks like 44 wins, the 6th seed and a first round matchup with Toronto. I've estimated the Wizards odds of winning a 7-game series against the Raptors at 32%.

So you're saying there's a chance...what are the odds against the Nets and Bulls?

Jeez, you can't click over to the blog?

I estimate the Wiz to have a 56% chance of beating the Nets and a 42% chance against the Bulls.

[nuposse04]

Over at the blog, I ran some numbers on the remaining schedules for the Wizards, Raptors, Bulls, Nets and Bobcats, and then for the odds of the Wizards winning a playoff series against the teams in the playoffs as of last night's games.

Basically, it looks like 44 wins, the 6th seed and a first round matchup with Toronto. I've estimated the Wizards odds of winning a 7-game series against the Raptors at 32%.

So you're saying there's a chance...what are the odds against the Nets and Bulls?

Jeez, you can't click over to the blog?

I estimate the Wiz to have a 56% chance of beating the Nets and a 42% chance against the Bulls.

Do these odds represent how the teams have been playing as of late? (like since the allstar break?) or are they representative of the whole season?

Also, Lets say Nene supplants Harrington in the rotation when he comes back...that has to help us somewhat...right? (In terms of getting better odds to advance past our 1st round opponent).

[Nivek]

These are estimated from the full season. I may do something to put more emphasis on recent performance when the season ends, but didn't have the time to do it today.

The Nenê question is interesting. For the season, they've been slightly better with him on the floor than with him off. But, they've been better the past few weeks since his MCL injury. IF he takes minutes from Harrington, he should be a net upgrade and should boost their chances in the playoffs. IF Wittman does what I think he might (replace Booker in the rotation), Nenê may not provide as much of a lift.

[nuposse04]

These are estimated from the full season. I may do something to put more emphasis on recent performance when the season ends, but didn't have the time to do it today.

The Nenê question is interesting. For the season, they've been slightly better with him on the floor than with him off. But, they've been better the past few weeks since his MCL injury. IF he takes minutes from Harrington, he should be a net upgrade and should boost their chances in the playoffs. IF Wittman does what I think he might (replace Booker in the rotation), Nenê may not provide as much of a lift.

I think a rotation of:

Al/Nene
Gortat/Gooden

should be an upgrade overall. I do think booker should be supplanting Al, but Randy is developing a Flip Saunders like love-affair with Vets.

What I think this hypothetical rotation does give us a chance at us though, is superior floor spacing. Gooden's ability to be offensively competent gives Nene to optimize his touches in the 15-25 mins he'd get.

[Hypnotizer]

82 - WizardsWorld
57 - deneem4
56 - jeffsays
52 - Chaos Revenant
51 - Wizardspride
50 - JWizmentality,Chocolate City Jordanaire, Bigwig
49 - AFM, Hands11, nuposse04
48 - Joe_Wiz, Bleacher Report, dobrojim, FreeBalling, LyricalRico
47 - TwentyOne920, zardsfan, jimij, CntOutSmrtCrazy, Zonkerbl, evolushunize, dorianwrite, Halcyon
46 - Jimmy (for the) Recard, sfam, CaPtaiN eYeSaNo
45 - Rafael122, Fischella, Deeptu McPullup, JAR69, Severn Hoos, MDStar, Illuminaire
44 - dangermouse, nate33, gesa2, montestewart, TheKingOfVa360, Payitforward, Donkey McDonkerton
43 - Wallbeliever, Higga, BarnabyJones, willbcocks, DallasShalDune, rockymac52, Nivek, DaSwami
42 - miller31time, TheBabyMaker, stevemcqueen1, barelyawake, GhostsOfGil, Keynote, thelvh.com
41 - long suffrin' boulez fan, sashae, WizStorm, dandridge 10, fishercob, The Consiglieri
40 - The Fax, pineappleheadindc, DaRealHibachi, hoopsworld.com, docsports.com
39 - DCKingsFan, tontoz, Dat2U, OffTheWall2, Bovada.LV, Sportsbook.com
38 - Ruzious, Dark Faze, Hypnotizer
37 - Earth2Ted, The Consiglieri, SUPERBALLMAN, JonathanJoseph, bulletproof_32, Upper Decker, doclinkin
36 - truwizfan4evr, MJG, Closg00, Benjammin
35 - FAH1223, AnotherFinn, BigA, pancakes3
34 - TGW, verbal8
32 - queridiculo
31 - Floater
30 - Knighthonor
27 - Upper Decker, Induveca

On the hot plate
39 - DCKingsFan, tontoz, Dat2U, OffTheWall2, Bovada.LV, Sportsbook.com
46 - Jimmy (for the) Recard, sfam, CaPtaiN eYeSaNo

edited post BOS Win - 7 games to go

Bumped for easy access.

[dckingsfan]

Jeez, you can't click over to the blog?

I was going to ask the question and then saw the response and laughed... Rafael saved me

[dckingsfan]

Uh oh... Nivek, can we sweep into the playoffs now?

[hands11]

82 - WizardsWorld
57 - deneem4
56 - jeffsays
52 - Chaos Revenant
51 - Wizardspride
50 - JWizmentality,Chocolate City Jordanaire, Bigwig
49 - AFM, Hands11, nuposse04
48 - Joe_Wiz, Bleacher Report, dobrojim, FreeBalling, LyricalRico
47 - TwentyOne920, zardsfan, jimij, CntOutSmrtCrazy, Zonkerbl, evolushunize, dorianwrite, Halcyon
46 - Jimmy (for the) Recard, sfam, CaPtaiN eYeSaNo
45 - Rafael122, Fischella, Deeptu McPullup, JAR69, Severn Hoos, MDStar, Illuminaire
44 - dangermouse, nate33, gesa2, montestewart, TheKingOfVa360, Payitforward, Donkey McDonkerton
43 - Wallbeliever, Higga, BarnabyJones, willbcocks, DallasShalDune, rockymac52, Nivek, DaSwami
42 - miller31time, TheBabyMaker, stevemcqueen1, barelyawake, GhostsOfGil, Keynote, thelvh.com
41 - long suffrin' boulez fan, sashae, WizStorm, dandridge 10, fishercob, The Consiglieri
40 - The Fax, pineappleheadindc, DaRealHibachi, hoopsworld.com, docsports.com
39 - DCKingsFan, tontoz, Dat2U, OffTheWall2, Bovada.LV, Sportsbook.com
38 - Ruzious, Dark Faze, Hypnotizer
37 - Earth2Ted, The Consiglieri, SUPERBALLMAN, JonathanJoseph, bulletproof_32, Upper Decker, doclinkin
36 - truwizfan4evr, MJG, Closg00, Benjammin
35 - FAH1223, AnotherFinn, BigA, pancakes3
34 - TGW, verbal8
32 - queridiculo
31 - Floater
30 - Knighthonor
27 - Upper Decker, Induveca

On the hot plate
42 - miller31time, TheBabyMaker, stevemcqueen1, barelyawake, GhostsOfGil, Keynote, thelvh.com
44 - dangermouse, nate33, gesa2, montestewart, TheKingOfVa360, Payitforward, Donkey McDonkerton

edited post MIL WIN- 2 games to go

[Earth2Ted]

Very happy to have been eliminated and that we are playoff bound.

I am more hopeful about this team than in a long time- mostly on the strength of John Wall establishing himself as all star caliber- and just a bit more consistency, maturity, and good health separating him from franchise caliber. The difference between our prospects now and 10 years ago is the difference between Wall and Gilbert Arenas- as good a scorer as Gil was, because of his intangibles we were never going to contend with him being "the guy", and we were never going to attract the free agents we needed to get there. With Wall- both are possible.

The other pleasant surprises have been Ariza stepping up for a month when we needed him, Gortat being a little better than expected, and the additions of Andre Miller and Drew Gooden. Nene and Beal, I think, have been about as good (and as injured) as we could have expected.

The most impressive thing has been that we are over .500 on the road after being beyond abysmal for a long time, including that 25 game roadkill skid back in 10-11.

I still think that it will be an uphill climb to get to bona fide contender status, and if we do, it will be in spite of, and not because of, our owner and front office. But hey, we did it back in the 70s, and we were on our way to doing it in the 90's...

Now all we need is DeSean Jackson to return the favor and recruit Kevin Durant back home to DC.

[dckingsfan]

Still hold?

Here are the odds of them winning their remaining games:

Code: Select all

DATE            PLACE   OPP     ODDS    W-L
03/31/14        A       CHA     48%     L
04/02/14        H       BOS     63%     W
04/04/14        A       NYK     49%     W (vs loss)
04/05/14        H       CHI     54%     L (vs. win)
04/09/14        H       CHA     58%     W
04/11/14        A       ORL     55%     W
04/12/14        H       MIL     69%     W
04/14/14        H       MIA     46%     L
04/16/14        A       BOS     53%     W



[payitforward]

All respect to Kevin, but statistical evidence gotten from an X-sized sample gives you confidence in predicting results across an X-sized future. It does not give you any equivalent confidence in predicting a much smaller-scaled future. Certainly not one game, for example.

Or, to put it slightly differently, this is why we play the games.

So... I'm still holding out for 44-38 !!!

[doclinkin]

Still hold?

Here are the odds of them winning their remaining games:

Code: Select all

DATE            PLACE   OPP     ODDS    W-L
03/31/14        A       CHA     48%     L
04/02/14        H       BOS     63%     W
04/04/14        A       NYK     49%     W (vs loss)
04/05/14        H       CHI     54%     L (vs. win)
04/09/14        H       CHA     58%     W
04/11/14        A       ORL     55%     W
04/12/14        H       MIL     69%     W
04/14/14        H       MIA     46%     L
04/16/14        A       BOS     53%     W



All respect to Kevin, but statistical evidence gotten from an X-sized sample gives you confidence in predicting results across an X-sized future. It does not give you any equivalent confidence in predicting a much smaller-scaled future. Certainly not one game, for example.

Or, to put it slightly differently, this is why we play the games.

So... I'm still holding out for 44-38 !!!

With the exception of the CharCats, the rest of our opponents will likely be tanking for lotto slots or resting key players for the playoff run (DWade in particular). Though this being a wizards squad who relaxes against lesser competition we may see a few more L's anyway.

[fishercob]

I thought of this thread after readingthis interesting piece about crowdsourcing intelligence predictions.

Because I am a huge nerd, I took a few minutes to tabulate our prediction data set. APart from one prediction in jest (82-0), we have 96 predicted results with a mean prediction of 42.2 wins. We'll likely (hopefully?) fall a win or two short. I wonder if we had ten or twenty times as many predictions in our data set if we'd have done better.