Bradley Beal - Part II

[crackhed]

lets not forget that teams play Beal much much tighter now than previously

[pancakes3]

And, I don't think it would constitute a "complete overhaul" either. Essentially, it boils down to getting them to focus on taking shots they a) make more often, and b) have a higher yield.

It just struck me as marginal especially with the Harden comparisons that at first blush it suggested that if we were to flip Harden for Beal then we would only come out 3 wins better. Of course Harden's playmaking and ability to draw fouls would add a couple of extra wins but it still was underwhelming - to me at least. Maybe underwhelming would be a better word than marginal.

[DCZards]

Finally, I do think it's fair to say Beal isn't improving -- at least not much. He's not regressing, though. His overall performance this season is about the same as it was last season. That's probably disappointing for those who were expecting a big jump. I thought he'd get a little better, but that his bigger jumps would come in years three and four.

This pretty much sums up where I am on Beal. (Quick disclaimer: he's my favorite Zard). Double B had an impressive rookie season and expectations were raised high--probably too high. As a result, many here consider this year a step back for him. I don't really see it that way.

No, Beal hasn't made the significant and easily measureable improvement that we'd all like to see and his decision making is indeed questionable at times. Bradley does have to take fewer long 2s and both attack the basket more and work to get open for the 3. But the mid-range jumper will be an important part of his arsenal going forward so I don't have a problem when he takes the open 10-15 foot jumper.

We shouldn't lose sight of the fact that we're talking about a 20 year old that has holes in his game that he needs time to improve on...and a player who is drawing a lot more attention from opposing defenses than he did this time last year.

[Sluggerface]

I think the main problem with Beal's shot selection is that he is just inexperienced , but it's being compacted by Randy's dumbass coaching and the fact that beal isn't a good shooter off the dribble, even when he does get space to shoot off the screen, he still needs a good 1 sec to get set and get that shot off. If you look at Wall, he steps into that shot instantly with no hesitation as soon as he comes off the screen. I get that Wittman still wants Gortat to be relevant in the offense by running that dribble handoff closer to the basket, but Gortat IS NOT AN ELITE FINISHER, and Beal sure as hell isn't elite shooting off the dribble.

I'm so sick of seeing other team's bigs just sag off on us while we try feverishly to get that horrible shot off. Those handoffs need to happen more at the 3 point line. Make their bigs pay for sagging, space the floor, and get to the rim.

[nate33]

Well, Nivek said 3 wins this season "so far". Presumably, that's equal to 4 wins in the entire season. And 4 more wins is also 4 less losses. So assuming we end up going 46-36, we could have ended up at 50-32 by merely adjusting Beal's shot selection. That's the difference between a ho-hum marginal playoff team and a dark horse contender. I think that's pretty big.

[JAR69]

1. Is Beal tired? He already has played in more games than last year and nearly 250 more minutes.
2. How much of Beal's shot selection this year is a result of teams running him off the three point line? It seems like that has become the strategy for defending Beal/Ariza/Webster in general. I don't have data to back it up, but it seems in watching the games more of that is going on this year than last year. The Wizards, BTW, shouldn't capitulate by hoisting up long 2s.
3. Why are Beal's away shooting numbers so much better than his home numbers? Home: 39.4 FG%, 36.2 3PT%, 47.9 TS%. Away: 42.4 FG%, 44.7 3PT%, 51.4 TS%. The sample size seems big enough by this point in the season.

[JAR69]

I also think it is easy to forget how young Beal really is. He is the 4th youngest player in the league overall, and the youngest true starter (Giannis and Steven Adams are now starting, but haven't all year). Yes, Davis is about the same age, but he was the number 1 overall and is a special player.

[Illmatic21]

I think the main problem with Beal's shot selection is that he is just inexperienced , but it's being compacted by Randy's dumbass coaching and the fact that beal isn't a good shooter off the dribble, even when he does get space to shoot off the screen, he still needs a good 1 sec to get set and get that shot off. If you look at Wall, he steps into that shot instantly with no hesitation as soon as he comes off the screen. I get that Wittman still wants Gortat to be relevant in the offense by running that dribble handoff closer to the basket, but Gortat IS NOT AN ELITE FINISHER, and Beal sure as hell isn't elite shooting off the dribble.

I'm so sick of seeing other team's bigs just sag off on us while we try feverishly to get that horrible shot off. Those handoffs need to happen more at the 3 point line. Make their bigs pay for sagging, space the floor, and get to the rim.

Actually Gortat is an elite finisher, very much so. From March 10:

Only LeBron James and Kevin Durant finish better than Gortat within three feet of the rim; he leads the Wizards in plus/minus per 48 minutes (+5.4); and his on-court presence provides team-high boosts in metrics like eFG%, assist ratio and fast-break points.

[hands11]

Agree with all of this. Less shots for Beal. Get Seraphin in there in place of Harrington (assuming Seraphin is healthy). More shots for Gooden.

Let's see more Wall/Gortat pick-and-rolls instead of that weird 2-man game with Gortat and Beal where Beal throws it to Gortat and then tries to use Gortat as a screen to get open. And I wouldn't mind seeing a few plays run for Webster from time-to-time. He has a pretty good catch-and-shoot game when coming off the screens. He can do more than just camp out in the corner.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/WAS/2014.html

Gooden has been crazy good in his short time here. And on pretty high attempts. 3rd in FGA/36 only to Wall and Beal but way more efficient.. TS ..652 and eFG .631.

But yeah, those things you mentioned. Webster is useful specially on night we are against team that close hard on the 3 ball shooter with lengthy players. He seems least affected by someone coming at him.

TA, he has kind of a slow wind up and leans forward into the shot. He has good height but the hard close out can bother him. Sometimes he will fake, side step back behind the line and get it off but the hard close can get him off balance and out of his comfort zone. Other time he will fake and drive with mixed results. If there is a clear lane, he goes pretty well. If not, hold onto your hats. It can get interesting.

Beal, he is very effected by the hard close out. And that leads to him stepping inside the 3 line to shoot. Best move for the team is run him off the double screen for the open 3. If not open, Beal can now head fake and drive decently. Problem is, to often he stops for the long 2 instead. Sadly with Randy's approval. He should continue to the basket or drive and pass to a cutter.

But Webster, his form ignores anything around him. His eyes are locked on the rim and he can get the ball off quickly and goes straight up. Also he draws 4 pts plays. And he isn't going to step inside the 3 line to get a shot off. He is a pure catch and shoot.

So we can actually be more effective on offense just with that and more effective with the 3 ball on nights we play teams closing out that are long. On those night, more Webster. I would even get Otto in the game or try to get Kevin in the post with the open floor.

Add in more Gortat who is low usage.. 17.6 but good TS .562
Gooden doing what he is doing.

They can be better then they are. If a coach would direct them to be what they can be and do a better job understanding the opponents. Its just tweaks get you there. Its easily in reach.

That's the frustrating part. All that said, another reliable back up SG would go a long way.

[hands11]

Not to throw cold water on the Analytics Parade, but I do want to point out 2 things about Beal:

1) I think some of his negatives are out of stubbornness, not low BBIQ. There is a difference and only one can really be corrected with maturation.

2) While everyone talked about Wall learning a post game from Andre, I actually think Beal is the one with the potential. If anyone saw the back-to-back shots Beal made in the 4th from the post against Sac, then you know that was D-Wade 2.0. I think his strong build with low center of gravity (like a RB) is going to be a way for him to really expand his game. Everyone already see how often he out-rebounds taller guys with strength and positioning.

I think Beal is really in a Sophomore slump. He came into the league as a high pick and started poorly. Once he really took off in the 2nd half of last year I think he was itching to try and do too much this year. But we should not forget:
A) He can shoot...well
B) He rebounds
C) He passes
D) He is smart
E) He is physically strong
G) He has ice water in his veins in the 4th
H) He is 20. (6 months younger than Alex Poythress and Rodney Hood, and a year younger than Mitch McGary)

Maturity is the key for him. He needs to really lock in mentally. And a big part of that for my eyes is not getting overly pleased with himself during the game which he tends to do. He needs to learn from Miller right now. Don't get to high. Don't get to low. Stay emotionally balanced. You can get all happy after the game. Also, he is to young to know enough to ignore Randy and fix his game on his own. Know your game. Know what is effective. This is where Randy hurts him the most. I think he not only isn't instructing him correctly, but encouraging the wrong shots. Thats not good for Beal or team chemistry. I believe the vets know what's happening and they are starting to get frustrated. I heard it from Gooden. I heard it from Nene in the past.

Its sad that my best hope it that the vets take control and make the changes themselves because the coach is wrong and won't make the fix.

For now, I would like to see Beal approach things this way. I want to see a locked in game face serious Beal. I think that kind of focus will translate into better performances. Right now I just get this feeling like he has a little of that chosen one in him. It doesn't sit well with me and I don't think it serves him well.

As for the change in Ws coaching debate. Count me in on the side that says YES. Its a big deal. 3 games just by changing Beal. Add in all the other stuff and you could have a 10 game swing this year, just based on better coaching.

That what ? 25% more wins between 40 and 50

[AFM]

At least we didn't draft MKG

[Sluggerface]

I think the main problem with Beal's shot selection is that he is just inexperienced , but it's being compacted by Randy's dumbass coaching and the fact that beal isn't a good shooter off the dribble, even when he does get space to shoot off the screen, he still needs a good 1 sec to get set and get that shot off. If you look at Wall, he steps into that shot instantly with no hesitation as soon as he comes off the screen. I get that Wittman still wants Gortat to be relevant in the offense by running that dribble handoff closer to the basket, but Gortat IS NOT AN ELITE FINISHER, and Beal sure as hell isn't elite shooting off the dribble.

I'm so sick of seeing other team's bigs just sag off on us while we try feverishly to get that horrible shot off. Those handoffs need to happen more at the 3 point line. Make their bigs pay for sagging, space the floor, and get to the rim.

Actually Gortat is an elite finisher, very much so. From March 10:

Only LeBron James and Kevin Durant finish better than Gortat within three feet of the rim; he leads the Wizards in plus/minus per 48 minutes (+5.4); and his on-court presence provides team-high boosts in metrics like eFG%, assist ratio and fast-break points.

Doesn't match what we've been seeing on the court. He got dominated by Miles Plumlee of all people, and he routinely melts against physical bigs. He shoots a high percentage because he shoots the shots he wants to take, but those come in limited spaces on the court, which he occupies 90% of the time. How many times have we seen Gortat get that bunny blocked? How many times have we seen Gortat play above the rim? How many times have we seen him beat someone off the dribble? He's an average post guy with lackluster athleticism that is a softy under the rim. Not even remotely an elite finisher. Average at best.

[Ruzious]

pancakes: Don't agree that a minor change in Beal's offense would have a marginal result. Three wins are a lot -- especially when it's something as simple as which shots a guy chooses to take. (And there'd be a similar kind of effect by adjusting Wall's shot selection as well). And, I don't think it would constitute a "complete overhaul" either. Essentially, it boils down to getting them to focus on taking shots they a) make more often, and b) have a higher yield.

That said, I agree completely that we shouldn't make too much of any one particular outing for Beal (and for others too).

Finally, I do think it's fair to say Beal isn't improving -- at least not much. He's not regressing, though. His overall performance this season is about the same as it was last season. That's probably disappointing for those who were expecting a big jump. I thought he'd get a little better, but that his bigger jumps would come in years three and four.

To check the progress of a 20 year old 2nd year player, I think it makes sense to leave out the first half of his rookie year. Beal looked as if he progressed quite a bit during his rookie year. He appears to have regressed since then.

It's part of the cycle - the league adjusts to a young player, and then we see if the young player adjusts right back to the league.

[hands11]

pancakes: Don't agree that a minor change in Beal's offense would have a marginal result. Three wins are a lot -- especially when it's something as simple as which shots a guy chooses to take. (And there'd be a similar kind of effect by adjusting Wall's shot selection as well). And, I don't think it would constitute a "complete overhaul" either. Essentially, it boils down to getting them to focus on taking shots they a) make more often, and b) have a higher yield.

That said, I agree completely that we shouldn't make too much of any one particular outing for Beal (and for others too).

Finally, I do think it's fair to say Beal isn't improving -- at least not much. He's not regressing, though. His overall performance this season is about the same as it was last season. That's probably disappointing for those who were expecting a big jump. I thought he'd get a little better, but that his bigger jumps would come in years three and four.

To check the progress of a 20 year old 2nd year player, I think it makes sense to leave out the first half of his rookie year. Beal looked as if he progressed quite a bit during his rookie year. He appears to have regressed since then.

It's part of the cycle - the league adjusts to a young player, and then we see if the young player adjusts right back to the league.

I think a lot of his slow start his first year was the position he was put in. He was basically asked to do the same stuff Randy has him trying to do now only without a PG out there with him. That was a huge no win situation. The PGs where Price and Pargo

Price, Beal, TA, Booker and Okafor, and TA and Okafor were new to the team.

Actually, everyone but Booker was new. Talk about a rough introduction to the league. Remember how many shots he would get blocked?

[jivelikenice]

Rice is averaging 20/7 and his shooting has improved in the D league. With Beal and Webster struggling WHY NOT?? You can't find him 10 mpg?

[jeffsays]

Rice is averaging 20/7 and his shooting has improved in the D league. With Beal and Webster struggling WHY NOT?? You can't find him 10 mpg?

Because randy wittman.

Sent from my SPH-L710 using RealGM Forums mobile app

[pancakes3]

Rice is averaging 20/7 and his shooting has improved in the D league. With Beal and Webster struggling WHY NOT?? You can't find him 10 mpg?

As bad as Brad's been slumping, he's averaging 17/4/3 in the NBA. I'm sure he could get 20ppg in the d-league.

[jivelikenice]

That's not that point. The point is Rice is playing well in the D-League so why not bring him up and give him a few backup minutes at the 2 given how Beal and Webster have been playing.

[verbal8]

Beal is one of the most important players on the team. We win a whopping 81% of the games in which Beal shoots 50% or better from the floor...




...the only problem is that he has shot 50% or better just 16 times in 58 games this season. And he hasn't cracked the 50% mark in 10 games in a row now.

He really is a dreadful shooter. He's GOT to get better. A lot better.

He could help the Wizards a lot just by taking fewer **** shots.

Here's Beal's shot selection and yield by distance so far this season:

Code: Select all

DIST           %FGA    PPS
At-Rim         14%     1.24
3-10 ft        7%      0.66
10-16 ft       11%     0.76
16ft to 3pt    39%     0.72
3pt            30%     1.23


So, from 3ft to the 3pt line, Beal produces just 0.72 points per shot. Yet those shots account for 57% of his FGA. Meanwhile, he produces 1.23 points per shot on attempts at the rim and from the 3pt line, but those account for just 43% of his attempts.

A few other comparisons:

Prime Ray Allen(25):

Code: Select all

DIST           %FGA    PPS
At-Rim        23.5%   1.318
3-10 ft        8.6%    0.858
10-16 ft      18.3%    0.836
16ft to 3pt    14%    0.82
3pt             35.7%   1.299


Prime Rip Hamilton(25)

Code: Select all

DIST           %FGA    PPS
At-Rim       27.4%   1.222
3-10 ft        16.3%   0.778
10-16 ft      25.6%   0.91
16ft to 3pt    24.9%   0.738
3pt            5.8%      0.795


Eric Gordon(22)

Code: Select all

DIST           %FGA    PPS
At-Rim      27.8%   1.326
3-10 ft        19.9%   0.73
10-16 ft     5.4%   0.824
16ft to 3pt   16.2%   0.728
3pt            30.7%   1.092


[nate33]

Man, Beal shoots a TON of long 2's. Rip Hamilton was the master of the long 2 and yet he still shot far fewer than Beal.