Official Trade Thread -- Part XL

[Dark Faze]

So assuming we fall somewhere between 8-14, what's the play concerning the draft pick?

[NatP4]

So assuming we fall somewhere between 8-14, what's the play concerning the draft pick?

IMO, take whichever one is still on the board out of: Franz Wagner, Jaden Springer, Jared Butler.

I would rather fall in the 8-14 range and get one of those players than the 4-8 range and get one of Kuminga/Barnes/Johnson/Moody

Super excited about the pick.

[doclinkin]

I don’t think we are getting the young athletic rim protecting big in this years draft. After Mobley, there’s a massive drop off.

It will have to be through trades/signing

Have faith! There is still a lot of potential suck to the rest of the season. We are packed with back to backs. Some of our win streak has been on fluke plays. We just lost to a Boston team missing 2 starters. At some point Ish comes back and Brooks will have his 3 pg scrappy line-up again. Our front court does not rebound. Our rookie has fallen off after early good play. Rui has not yet consistently strung together games. The 7-8th worst teams in the league keep jumping up into the top 3 picks. Our win streak has been fun, but I think 'streak' is the key. Given our personnel and coach I don't think it is sustainable no matter that Brad will constantly show up.

[nate33]

I really don't think money should be allocated to the Center position in today's NBA. I'd rather have Lopez/Bryant/Len on their deals than give Turner the big dollars. You can go ahead and find a wing or other shooters with that money.

Not saying Turner is the answer to all our problems but certainly Lopez/Bryant/Len are not a solution. Our success recently is in spite of them. It's fools gold to think you can win consistently with that group.

I think both sentiments have some truth to them.

You shouldn't pay much for the center position unless you are paying a really, really good center. Guys like Gobert, Embiid, Jokic, Bam and Anthony Davis are game changers and are absolutely worth what they are paid.

But I agree with young Wizzy's point that it's not really worth it to pay substantial money (significantly more than the MLE) for guys like Turner, Drummond, B.Lopez, Valanciunas etc. when they're only slightly better than guys you can find cheaply. Instead of Turner at $18M, give me Richaun Holmes at $6M or Serge Ibaka at $10M; or, dare I say, Robin Lopez at $7M.

But chances are, you're not going to win a title unless you have one of the elite centers, or an elite power forward who can play center in crunch time.

[payitforward]

All good points. The key thing is that it's a hard-capped league; spend your money where it brings the biggest return.

&, if it weren't a hard-capped league, the 60 best players would be playing on the 2 LA teams & the 2 NY teams! (Overstatement, but you get my point...)

[NatP4]

You lost me at Robin Lopez

[nate33]

You lost me at Robin Lopez

I was just looking at his on/off numbers and was pretty impressed.

His overall on/off differential is +2.0, which is nice but nothing to write home about. But looking deeper, I see that the team's rebounding percentage improves a massive 4.0% when Lopez is on the floor. When he is off the floor, the team's TRB% is just 46.9%. When he is on the floor, it's 50.9%. We go from being destroyed on the glass to winning the rebounding battle when Lopez walks on the floor.

Likewise, the opponent's eFG% with Lopez off the floor is 56.1%. When he is on, it falls to 52.9%. The opponent's ORtg is 118.0 with Lopez off the floor (making us the 29th best defense), it falls to 110.8 with Lopez on (making us the 13th best defense).

[NatP4]

Ultimately, losing is still a good thing. Brooks needs to go, we all know this. Some really good coaches will be available in the off-season. Losing also makes it more likely that we sell at the trade deadline in 3 weeks. We all want to move Bertans to Boston or some other team for another 1st round pick or some sort of asset for the future.

Right now, the best scenario to me, would be to land somewhere in the 4-10 range on draft night (assuming top 3 is out of the picture now), and trade down with OKC/NY for multiple mid 1sts. I’m sure one of those teams will fall in love with a prospect like Kuminga or Jalen Johnson. They both lack young talented young wing players.

Not sure how you get the athletic rim protector, but 3 mid firsts could result in Springer, Butler, and Wagner.

[nate33]

Right now, the best scenario to me, would be to land somewhere in the 4-10 range on draft night (assuming top 3 is out of the picture now), and trade down with OKC/NY for multiple mid 1sts.

The way things look, I think we will fall in the top 4 (by winning the lottery with the flatter odds) or end up picking in the 8-15 range. I think we are too good to finish among the bottom 7 or so teams - unless Beal gets hurt.

[The Consiglieri]

I'm with nate on this: it's just too much fun to watch Brad in a Wizards uni!

Now... there is always some deal which is just too good to turn down. But, until we see one of those I don't put him on the market.

One thing for sure: if I see the names "Oubre" & "Wiseman" I turn my back & walk the other way. Wiseman may turn out to be terrific, but he's no sure thing. Oubre is just a guy.

I am not. The time to trade is now, could get a lot of goodies w/so much in flux. Definitely think it would be a huge mistake to pin so much on the short term w/so much long term at risk. If I was convinced that Beal on only one season would get us back as much as Beal on 1.5 I’d wait but I’m not at all sold on that. Hope I’m wrong because it seems unlikely we sell. Hoping the team slides into a ravine in terms of W/L next few weeks to avoid win now trades and push the necessity of win tomorrow trades.

[nate33]

I'm with nate on this: it's just too much fun to watch Brad in a Wizards uni!

Now... there is always some deal which is just too good to turn down. But, until we see one of those I don't put him on the market.

One thing for sure: if I see the names "Oubre" & "Wiseman" I turn my back & walk the other way. Wiseman may turn out to be terrific, but he's no sure thing. Oubre is just a guy.

I am not. The time to trade is now, could get a lot of goodies w/so much in flux. Definitely think it would be a huge mistake to pin so much on the short term w/so much long term at risk. If I was convinced that Beal on only one season would get us back as much as Beal on 1.5 I’d wait but I’m not at all sold on that. Hope I’m wrong because it seems unlikely we sell. Hoping the team slides into a ravine in terms of W/L next few weeks to avoid win now trades and push the necessity of win tomorrow trades.

We keep running into the same problem when we talk Beal trades. No team that wants Beal and who can expect to resign Beal has the assets that are worth Beal - at least not without optimistic projections on where they will likely end up drafting. Nearly all Beal trades inevitably include only late picks, except the Golden State trade. And the Golden State trade requires that the Minnesota pick break just right. It's risky. I don't want to end up trading Beal for Wiseman plus the #11 pick in the 2022 draft, and that's it.

[The Consiglieri]

Sell high. Right now. Beal for Oubre, Wiseman, picks. Bertans to a team that needs shooting.

Can there honestly be any doubt that it’s what Masai would do?

I'd rather keep Beal then take some upside plays that will never come close to being as good.

And if Beal leaves which strikes me as a 90%+ chance unless we nail a lottery pick this year? I think the vast majority of us that are pro trade view it as: Trade assets > Beal leaving summer of ‘22 not as: Trade assets >Beal through 2026 or whatever (though I’m a rare one that would still do it after watching 2012-2021 regardless of whether he’d stay ( though I’d do a sign and trade so we could get more in that scenario).

[The Consiglieri]

I'm with nate on this: it's just too much fun to watch Brad in a Wizards uni!

Now... there is always some deal which is just too good to turn down. But, until we see one of those I don't put him on the market.

One thing for sure: if I see the names "Oubre" & "Wiseman" I turn my back & walk the other way. Wiseman may turn out to be terrific, but he's no sure thing. Oubre is just a guy.

I am not. The time to trade is now, could get a lot of goodies w/so much in flux. Definitely think it would be a huge mistake to pin so much on the short term w/so much long term at risk. If I was convinced that Beal on only one season would get us back as much as Beal on 1.5 I’d wait but I’m not at all sold on that. Hope I’m wrong because it seems unlikely we sell. Hoping the team slides into a ravine in terms of W/L next few weeks to avoid win now trades and push the necessity of win tomorrow trades.

We keep running into the same problem when we talk Beal trades. No team that wants Beal and who can expect to resign Beal has the assets that are worth Beal - at least not without optimistic projections on where they will likely end up drafting. Nearly all Beal trades inevitably include only late picks, except the Golden State trade. And the Golden State trade requires that the Minnesota pick break just right. It's risky. I don't want to end up trading Beal for Wiseman plus the #11 pick in the 2022 draft, and that's it.

I hear you, I think it would need to be a 3+ team trade. You’re right, that scenario wouldn’t be good enough.

Also in ref to Nats post above, I see zero chance that happen, Beal might tolerate 1 lottery rookie, he’s not gonna tolerate adding 3 more guys “who are learning” (as he put it in ref to Hachimura and Demi) to the 15 when he’s in his prime. One big dog sure. Three, no chance. A trade up is more likely than a trade down if that’s where we slot if we’re keeping Beal.

[NatP4]

When has Beal ever given any indication of any of this?

He has always been hands off with the front office stuff and has publicly said that he will just let Tommy do his job and stay out of it. He would have absolutely no issue with us drafting 3 rookies. He’s a smart guy that would surely love to add 3 talented young players on rookie deals.

You think Brad liked trading away a 1st round pick for Markieff Morris or Bogdonovic? I doubt it.

[NatP4]

We do a lot of speculating on Beal’s thought process based on nothing at all. By all indications, he loves DC and wants to be here for the rest of his career. We should be focused on building a championship team around him and nothing else.

[DCZards]

Yes, Beal seems to love playing in DC...but he also wants to win. And adding multiple players next season who need 2-3 years of learning/development is probably not something that he'd welcome. It's not fair to ask him (and Russ) to wait 3-4 years on the development of these players.

Ideally, Rui, Bryant, Deni & Mathews continue to learn and improve and the Zards get a high enough pick to get one of the top 6-8 players in this year's draft (and hit a home run). I'd also love to see the Zards trade for Robert Williams (which I believe is a longshot) and add a proven vet to the frontline this offseason...someone who is a good defender and rebounder and willing to come off the bench.

I don't believe for a minute that Beal is entirely "hands off" when it comes to decisions made by the FO. He'd be a fool not to use his leverage as the franchise player...and someone that the Zards would love to re-sign.

[nate33]

I think the one team in the league who wants Beal the most, where he is the perfect fit in skill, position, age, experience and demeanor, is New Orleans. I think they are the one team who would trade the #1 overall pick for Beal. They would certainly trade the #2 or #3 pick for him.

Is that a trade you would do on Draft Day? Let's say the actual deal was #1 overall pick plus Bledsoe straight up for Beal. Let's also assume we land the #10 pick based on our record.

I think I would. Beal, as good as he is, will probably peak as a "star player" but not a "franchise player". I don't think a team can win with Beal as the best player. History shows that you need a big wing playmaker or an all-time great big man to win championships. Cade Cunningham fits the prototype of a big wing playmaker.

[prime1time]

All this talk of trading him when his value is high is silly. I remember when I was told the same thing last year. I've said it before and I'll say it again, he is still getting better. He should be a 50/40/90 guy. This offseason he was working on expanding his 3-point range and off the dribble 3's. If he added that to his game, you would be talking about a guy who could average mid to high 30s in the flow of an offense. Yesterday showed the logical conclusion to Beal's scoring prowess. Double teams. Beal is the superstar that other superstars will want to play with. If we can build a solid enough team and have some ingenuity with the cap, there is no reason why we can't poach another team's star. And if you hear Beal talk, he's fully committed to DC. If he wanted to leave or take the easy way out, he would have done it already. This guy wants to go down as a DC sports legend. Crazy how many people want to trade him away.

[prime1time]

I think the one team in the league who wants Beal the most, where he is the perfect fit in skill, position, age, experience and demeanor, is New Orleans. I think they are the one team who would trade the #1 overall pick for Beal. They would certainly trade the #2 or #3 pick for him.

Is that a trade you would do on Draft Day? Let's say the actual deal was #1 overall pick plus Bledsoe straight up for Beal. Let's also assume we land the #10 pick based on our record.

I think I would. Beal, as good as he is, will probably peak as a "star player" but not a "franchise player". I don't think a team can win with Beal as the best player. History shows that you need a big wing playmaker or an all-time great big man to win championships. Cade Cunningham fits the prototype of a big wing playmaker.

Steph Curry

[nate33]

I think the one team in the league who wants Beal the most, where he is the perfect fit in skill, position, age, experience and demeanor, is New Orleans. I think they are the one team who would trade the #1 overall pick for Beal. They would certainly trade the #2 or #3 pick for him.

Is that a trade you would do on Draft Day? Let's say the actual deal was #1 overall pick plus Bledsoe straight up for Beal. Let's also assume we land the #10 pick based on our record.

I think I would. Beal, as good as he is, will probably peak as a "star player" but not a "franchise player". I don't think a team can win with Beal as the best player. History shows that you need a big wing playmaker or an all-time great big man to win championships. Cade Cunningham fits the prototype of a big wing playmaker.

Steph Curry

Fair enough. Though he had 2 other All-NBA players on his roster.