Arenas for Vince or dump Arenas for cap space?

[leswizards]

A few posters object to the idea that Gil is some kind of cancer. I am not going to call him a cancer, but I will say I don't want him **** in John Wall's shoes, I don't want him hazing John Wall over gambling debts, in fact, I don't want him hazing John Wall over anything. I want him to keep his mouth shut, come to work, rehabilitate his trade value and then be gone. Will Gil do this? I don't know, time will tell, but if his attitude is any where near some of his supporters on this board, I am not hopeful.

[fishercob]

Haha! Don't persecute Gil b/c Krizko is an a-hole

[bullitz]

Perhaps the latest news regarding a Wall/Arenas backcourt straight from the man in charge of it all will help stoke the flames of this raging debate.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/dcsportsbog/2010/07/leonsis_wizards_will_have_one.html?wprss=dcsportsbog

[JonathanJoseph]

I think around ten games worse is right, maybe 8. 33 wins seems reasonable.

They BUlls were 18th in offense and 14th in defense against a weak conference. Wiz were 25th in offense and 18th in D last year for 26 wins. We might improve on those numbers, but given our lack of depth at all three frontcourt positions, we may not improve much. Plus, we'll essentially be playing a tougher schedule due to the East being better.

As an aside, I'm surprised and frankly a little impressed that Flip coaxed the 18th best D in the NBA with the players he had last year. The previous 4 years were 29th, 24th, 28th and 21st. We're going to miss Haywood a ton though.

That's without Arenas, right?

For the Wiz to only win 33 games, Wall would have to be one of the least effective #1 overall draft picks since Kwame and Hinrich and Yi would have to bring nothing to the table and you'd have to be suggesting that McGee's improvement is a mirage. That's not hyperbole, that's just what it would take to only improve by 7 wins.

The Pacers won 32 games last year with Danny Granger/Troy Murphy/Roy Hibbert/Brandon Rush/Earl Watson. The Wizards could win 32 games without Arenas AND Wall.

You are drastically underestimating the talent on board.

[DCZards]

And what the hell is with this "Gil's gonna cost us draft slots". so instead of getting Gordan Heyward, Aminu, or Expe Udoh...we get Patrick Patterson, Ed Davis, or Cole Aldrich.

Well said. This idea that the Zards are going to get that final "championship piece" by tanking is ludricous. You're more likely to get the 6-9 pick in the draft...a real crapshoot most years. The backcourt of Wall and Arenas could very well be the cornerstone of an extremely competitive NBA team. I say we find out before dumping GA.

[BanndNDC]

Bannd, all I can say in response is IMO you are severly overrating two things:

1) A rehabbed Gil's value.

if spreewell can be traded for value anyone can.

i think you're seriously underestimating our comparative position. a team like orlando will have to make a move to compete with the few super teams. dallas will also need to make a move. they will be a lot more desperate at the deadline or next offseason after we see how this whole superteam stuff plays out. gil will be one of the best bang for buck options out there.

2) Our frontcourt, if you believe we are only a rebounder away from competing with the megateams being assembled. This is exactly why I have been fighting the "don't overrate Blatche" argument all Summer. You guys are banking on Blatche being this Allstar player. Don't. I'd rather not revisit this argument for a fifth time.

nobody is overestimating blatche. he's fine as a 3rd option and has a solid mid range/passing game that helps open up the lane. i dont think expecting 14 and 7 is exactly shooting at the moon and overrating. the big problem is that a blatche/mcgee front court pairing doesnt have the rebounding or physicality to be successful. but if an elite rebounder (which by definition would be a pf or c and usually involves a level of physicality) can be acquired then a blatche/X and seraphin/mcgee quartet is solid (assuming reasonable development projections).

i said "elite" rebounder which is the same thing you're pushing for. there's only a handful of them in the league now. counting on getting one in the draft is just as foolish as counting on getting one in a trade (like im doing). the only difference between the two positions is that in your scenario we'd also need an elite scorer.

So, we have two plans thus far. One, luring Gasol away from Kobe. That isn't happening. The other plan, adding Melo. Wall/arenas/melo/Blatche/McGee will not win a championship. Mostly because of defense and lack of rebounding. Now, how do you get that elite, defensive center? You have no cap and no picks.

it's Marc not Pau that people are angling for and the main trading chips would be gilbert, blatche and future picks.

[nate33]

As an aside, I'm surprised and frankly a little impressed that Flip coaxed the 18th best D in the NBA with the players he had last year. The previous 4 years were 29th, 24th, 28th and 21st. We're going to miss Haywood a ton though.

IIRC, we ranked 21st on D when the Jamison trade went down. The youngsters sans Haywood were able to get that defensive ranking down to 18th over the last 25 games of the season. In order to do that, they must have been playing something like the 10th best defense in the league over those games.

Take that same team and replace Livingston with Wall and we should be even better. However, by replacing Young with Arenas, we may be worse on D. (If Singleton isn't retained, that also might be a factor. Singleton was a beast for us.)

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

While Gil is on the team, he is increasing our win percentage -- thus lower picks. While Gil is on the team, his salary is not netting us BOYD deals for picks. You wish to rehab his value instead. To what end? You think a healthy Gil will net us what in the end? An Allstar? Again, I think that's us overrating Gil. Gil was underrated in the league to begin with. His value has always been too low. Add the league perception of the gun charge, his salary, his injury history and by 2012 his age, and you aren't going to net a gamechanger from him. And you missed years of collecting lottery picks and picks via BOYD deals.

I would rather see a team win now and make the best of late picks later. In this draft, Dominic Jones, Larry Sanders, Derrick Caracter, Jeremy Lin, Landry Fields all look very capable and none went lottery.

Win now and maximize the trade value of Arenas and Hinrich is what I hope to see the Wizards do.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Get your expectations up.

When Derrick Rose was a rookie, Rose/Ben Gordon/John Salmons/Luol Deng was 41-41. The current Wiz roster is at least that good and maybe much better.

They started with Gooden and Nocioni who they traded for Salmons and Brad Miller.

Rose/Gordon/Deng/Salmons/Noah/Miller/Ty Thomas in an Easten Conference that had all of five teams over .500 is far better than Wall/Arenas/Hinrich/Blatche/McGee/Thornton in an East that will have no less than 7. We're going to suck, and it's Ohhh....kaaaaaaaay.

I'm not trying to live in denial, I just don't see what you see.

Joakim Noah was in his 2nd year averaging about 7/8, which is well behind what McGee was averaging at the end of last season (and Noah still has not been invited to the Team USA camp even with a lack of big men). Let's call that one a wash.

Ty Thomas? 11 pts/5 rebs. Blatche this season will be far, far better but let's call that one a wash too.

Rose/Gordon/Deng/Salmons seems pretty comparable to Wall/Hinrich/Young/Thornton.

So the difference is Brad Miller? Who I actually like, BTW.

I don't understand what you see that says that the Wiz will be AT LEAST 10 games worse than that team since that seems to be your ballpark. I still see those teams as being even and that's without Arenas.

Noah would play for France, right? They could definitely use him on Team USA.

[fishercob]

Here's an example of (quasi)-plausible keep-and-trade Gil scenario.

With a frontcuort rotation of Haywood-Dirk-Chandler-Someone-Marion, plus Kidd running the show and knocking down three's, ROddy B continuing to provide bench spark, etc., Dallas puts together a nice first half, say top 3 in the West.

Caron (14.2 PER in Dallas last year) continues to struggle. He forces the issue too much, pressing for a new deal in a contract year. He starts to mope (as he reportedly did here last year). Jason Terry is 33.

At the same time, Gil's putting up 25 a night, playing passable defense on 2's, is a model citizen and teammate.

Dallas trades Caron (bought out before he gets on a plane) + Terry (only $5M guaranteed in '11-12) + Dominique Jones + Dallas' 11 and '13 first for Gil.

They roll into the stretch with Kidd-Gil-Marion-Dirk-Haywood, with Chandler, Beaubois and an unnamed swingman (Richard Jefferson for the full MLE?) off the bench. Size to battle the lakers, rebounding everywhere. Multiple offensive weapons. That team is legit.

It's but one potential scenario, but there will be manyh others...

[nate33]

Ridiculous. Dallas would never sacrifice that much value for Arenas. They'd sooner swap Butler straight up for Rip Hamilton or Monta Ellis.

[barelyawake]

The Wiz would not win 32 games without Arenas and Wall. And it's that type of thinking that will ruin our future by overestimating what we have and not planning for a true championship team.

Bannd, my friend, first Spree had a much higher trade value than Gil (pre-choking). Spree was allnba and alldefensive team. He took Michael Jordan's spot on the allstar team for god's sake. I'm not sure how many years were left on Spree's contract when he was traded. But, I don't believe he had the injury history. Gil's got like five major things going against him -- not just one incident.

Im not banking on getting the top pick for said elite rebounder. I'm saying the tank way there are many options, all of which give us chances to get said rebounder. We can shoot for the top pick (a few years in a row). If we miss, we can package a few top picks. We can BOYD deals to get more top picks. And finally, we can attract a top free agent by having such great young talent. Many roads. Not the one way versus your one way. And btw, that one way means you think we have the assets currently to trade. So, if we aren't including Blatche, who are we trading for this elite rebounder? Young?

[fishercob]

I think around ten games worse is right, maybe 8. 33 wins seems reasonable.

They BUlls were 18th in offense and 14th in defense against a weak conference. Wiz were 25th in offense and 18th in D last year for 26 wins. We might improve on those numbers, but given our lack of depth at all three frontcourt positions, we may not improve much. Plus, we'll essentially be playing a tougher schedule due to the East being better.

As an aside, I'm surprised and frankly a little impressed that Flip coaxed the 18th best D in the NBA with the players he had last year. The previous 4 years were 29th, 24th, 28th and 21st. We're going to miss Haywood a ton though.

That's without Arenas, right?

For the Wiz to only win 33 games, Wall would have to be one of the least effective #1 overall draft picks since Kwame and Hinrich and Yi would have to bring nothing to the table and you'd have to be suggesting that McGee's improvement is a mirage. That's not hyperbole, that's just what it would take to only improve by 7 wins.

The Pacers won 32 games last year with Danny Granger/Troy Murphy/Roy Hibbert/Brandon Rush/Earl Watson. The Wizards could win 32 games without Arenas AND Wall.

You are drastically underestimating the talent on board.

JoJo, think we're closer to Russell Westbroook''s rookie team than to Rose's. That team went 23-59 and got a comparable year out of Durant (20.6 PER) as to what I expect from Gil. They decent years out of Collison and Jeff Green and contributions from Krstic, Wilcox, Earl Watson, Kyle Weaver, and Sefolosha.

How can we call McGee's improvement a mirage? We can't even call it his improvement yet! He dominated summer league, thanks it large part to Wall. I'm unclear as to what he showed in SL that he hasn't shown before. He didn't rebound especially well on D. I'll celebrate Javale's improvement when I see it against NBA bigs.

Keep in mind, the Wiz went 3-3 after the deadline, lost 15 in a row and then went 4-5 to close out the season. 7-23 over their last 30 games. That's a 19 win pace. So winning 33 would be a hell of an improvement.

[DCZards]

Not banking on getting the top pick for said elite rebounder. I'm saying the tank way there are many options, all of which give us chances to get said rebounder.

Everyone keeps talking about getting that elite rebounder. And I'd love to see the Zards get one. Might Seraphin be that player? Shouldn't we wait to find that out before trading GA and "hoping" that we get that elite rebounder through the draft or free agency?

[nate33]

Keep in mind, the Wiz went 3-3 after the deadline, lost 15 in a row and then went 4-5 to close out the season. 7-23 over their last 30 games. That's a 19 win pace. So winning 33 would be a hell of an improvement.

It was actually 4-3 after the dealine, 0-16, then 5-4. They were 9-23 over their last 32 games. That's a 23-win pace.

If you only counted games in which Young started, they were 6-4, which is a 49-win pace.

[SOUP]

So Nate you want to keep Arenas? I´m a little confused on where you stand.

[verbal8]

Ridiculous. Dallas would never sacrifice that much value for Arenas. They'd sooner swap Butler straight up for Rip Hamilton or Monta Ellis.

I think the 2 picks is excessive(take out the 2011 and it seems reasonable to me), but the rest of the deal seems reasonable.

It also is a deal I could not see being offered for Carter.

[BanndNDC]

Let's be clear for a second. The ultra tanking plan requires getting lucky twice (one elite rebounder and one elite scorer). The non-tanking plan requires getting lucky once (elite rebounder). The amount of time we have to get that luck is still unknown. If Wall is better than Rose was then we have 3 years. If Wall is worse than Rose was then we have 5 years. We won't know our timeline until Wall starts playing NBA (not summer league or training camp) games. I don't think we should self-sabotage before knowing 1) what our timeline is and 2) if the timeline is 3 years, how well wall/arenas interact.


it seems to me that you are skeptical that the team would be willing to trade arenas and/or blatche if they meet expectations. which is reasonable. but im just as skeptical about ernie drafting in the 8-12 range and then overrating those players. keeping arenas does not hurt our cap position in the near term. we have nothing to lose by keeping him except a few spots in the late lottery and a lot more to potentially gain.

[LyricalRico]

Will Gil/Wall make one of the best backcourts in the league? Yes, now show me how you get the other three that loft us to a championship team. The trade Gil people have several ways to get to a championship -- high draft picks and lots of cap for BOYD deals and max players. The keep Gil people need to start throwing out line-ups that demonstrate your way has a chance. Show me line-ups and how we get there. Talk specifics. I haven't heard one plan in about a hundred pages of debate on this topic covering various threads.

High draft picks and cap room to sign players? Those aren't specifics. They represent hopes and dreams. You don't know if those high draft picks are going to turn out to be uber-talents like Wall. Heck, they might not even be as good as Blathce. And you don't know if that "cap space" is going to lead to a single top-flight player signing with the Zards. The only specific you cited was that "Gil/Wall make one of the best backcourts in the league."

That's a fair comment. Cap space opens up a lot of opportunities that we can't see right now. It doesn't just make it possible to sign free agents; it opens up a huge amount of trade possibilities that we can't put specifics on now, because we don't know who will be available in trades. I think we can certainly use it to get a guard who's every bit as good a fit for the Wiz than Arenas is - and have plenty left over. At least we'd have a shot to put together a championship team. If we keep Arenas for the next 4 years, are we going to have that shot? Yes, but the chances are tiny, imo.

Great post, Ruz.

[LyricalRico]

Got this from another thread...

Sorry, but Melo at 3yrs and $65m seems too pricey for me. Melo also doesn't strike me as much of a leader, plus he doesn't seem to play too much defense.

Granted, Arenas isn't a leader either, and most folks here aren't too excited about his deal any longer. And he doesn't play any defense.

Not picking on forbes specifically but this is an example of what I'm talking about. Change Gilbert's name to anything else and put him on a different team and nobody here would want to sign him or trade for him. NOBODY. But since he's played here for the last few years, all of a sudden that completely mitigates any negatives associated with him. This is the nostalgia that I keep bringing up, and I think it's clouding people's judgments.