payitforward wrote:You are absolutely right, prime, that we don't have a lot of good players! In fact, much of what you write above makes sense.
But, as a rookie, Kyle Kuzma had the 2d most minutes of any player on the Lakers! Brooks has said the goal for rookies this year on the Wizards is 1500 minutes. Now... it may not turn out that way, of course.
But, when you write "Personally, I think (Rui) already has the skills to excel in that scoring roll," honestly, what does that even mean? How is that statement different, for example, from saying that you hope he has those skills? Asserting something doesn't make it so. Asserting it with more confidence doesn't make it any more likely that it's so.
You've never seen Rui Hachimura play in the NBA; none of us have. Nor did he dominate Summer League (not saying he played badly).
In fact, he didn't average 20 points a game in Sl!! But you think he's going to do that against NBA players? He shot 50% overall in SL? You think he's going to do that well against real NBA players? Better?
I hope that's not the expectation you or anyone has of Rui Hachimura.
Well, if you've read this thread in the entirety you already know what I think. Get's kind of tiresome to state the same thing over and over again. Before I get started, I want to point out that I started my post with a qualifier. I said, if he makes more than 2 3's a game, then I expect him to average between 20-24 ppg. If you go back and read my previous posts in this thread I already have youtube links, analysis, and projections on how the Wizards should use him as a player.
I took a short break from reading War and Peace to surf the web, so I'll restate and reword some of my initial statements from before.
First of all NBA regular season defense is a joke. The NBA is a very rudimentary league when it comes to playing defense. Even the best teams have nights where they come out and play no defense, so the notion that Rui is going to go against "NBA players" means nothing to me. NBA regular-season defense is not good.
Second of all, if you watch summer league you would have seen the same unorganized offense that I did. With a crafty ball handler that could run the pick and roll consistently, you could have easily added 4-6 points to Rui's point total. And he's already shown that he has the skills to do that right now.
Third of all, as has been reiterated numerous times in this thread, the only thing offensively that even the most critical posters in this thread can criticize in this thread is Rui's lack of high volume three-point shooting in college. From a schematic standpoint, if Rui's going to knock down 3's he becomes a very challenging player to stop. He's already a dynamic offensive player, but adding the 3-point shot will make him a true offensive force. And with 3's we are literally only talking about wide open 3's when the defense rotates.
So how will the Wizards use Rui? Obviously, the Wizards should just let Rui be Rui. Let him keep his mid-range game, but emphasizing the use of his low post game and his dribble-drive game. We don't want Rui taking a bunch of mid-range jumpers each game. We want him attacking the hoop, drawing fouls and attacking in the low post. Now you tell me, "But, he's a rookie." I don't care. Basketball is basketball. And if there's one thing we've seen in the NBA it is that skills translate. Rui did not grow up in the United States. He didn't just get by on athleticism and size and strength like the vast number of rookies who come into the league. He has a very fundamentally sound game.
The go-to play for our team this year should be the Brad/Rui pick and roll. Teams will play this obviously to take away Brad leaving Rui with a likely easy pick and pop and potential lob situation. Both things that Rui has shown he can do consistently. If the teams switch, then we should let Rui take his man into the post. With his strength and skill level in the low post, that will be a great matchup for us. Go back and watch his college games. Duke was bringing the double team in the post when he was matched-up against Zion in the low post. In addition, we have to factor in the fact that Rui was hurt by the significantly less spacing that the college game has. With players like Bertans and Beal to stretch the floor, most coaches will take their chances letting Rui go one-on-one vs. his defender. And this is where Rui will shine.
Throwing him the ball one-on-one vs his defenders, the other team's defenders staying home. Rui already has the skills to score in this situation. Triple threat jab steps, and drives to the hoop; Triple threat jab step to a running hook; triple threat jab step to a spin move; one-dribble pull-ups, mid-post-fadeaway jumpers; low-post up-and-under; low-post jump hooks with both hands; step-back jumpers; mid-post jab-step jumpers; ability to finish with both hands around the hoop; low-post drop steps. The array of scoring moves that Rui has in the mid and low post is astounding. When you combine those skills with the fact that he's a strong as an ox, and has great body control you have someone who I think should be looked upon as the 2nd option on this team. And we haven't even talked about his ability to finish through contact with his strength and his ability to draw fouls (Rui averaged 6 ft attempts a game in college).
Now with all that being said, does this mean that if he doesn't come out and averaged 20 ppg I'm going to call for him to be traded or claim that he's a bust? No. But what it does mean, that something is off. Either we are not using him right. Or there's a critical flaw that I've missed. Or perhaps he struggles to adapt to the speed of the game. Regardless of what it is, my analysis of him and my projection for him will change. Just like it changed after I watched him in the summer league, and it changed after I watched him in FIBA qualifiers and the subsequent FIBA tournament. I look at players, I analyze, I project and then as I get more data I update my analysis.
At the end of the day, I'm not trying to convince you of anything.