2024 Draft Thread - Part II

[gesa2]

Knee injury = DeJuan Blair is pretty reductive IMO. LCL and MCL strains and tears usually heal fully with no long term concerns. These days a single ACL usually is ok too. Large or recurrent meniscal tears are the ones that medicine still doesn’t have as good answers for.

[dobrojim]

At this point I distinctly do not like Richaser. To the degree that I'd rather have Clingan than him.

Totally agree about Devin Carter.

Here's hoping we trade down. I think this is a deep draft. My favorite pipe dream remains 2 & 26 for Portland's 7, 14, 34 & 40. Include our 51 if necessary.

Of course, as in any other draft year, trading down requires someone to trade up. I don't think that is as "impossible" as some here imagine, but... I could be wrong!

It's interesting to see how this plays out. A lot of the times this board since I've been around ('07 or '08) has been right when they've hated guys going top 5. That being said, when a guy is this high despite so many people hating, it's typically either because its an:

A. Misevaluation by the league's GM's and scouts and you all are right.

B. We don't know things they know.

Will be interesting to see how this plays out going forward, will the league be idiots again (reminding me of that classic "Oh no, we suck again" meme), or will we have missed something critical?

I have no idea. My only strong opinion with the guys being mentioned is that I think a Clingan pick would be idiotic period and makes zero sense in any context other than: A, B and C are all mega likely busts, and Clingan is the only other option, and I just don't agree w/that take.

As PIF and others have pointed out, this (drafting) is such a crap shoot that before congratulating ourselves
on being right about a player who ends up busting, we should remember how often that happens.

[nate33]

Read on Twitter

DJ burns has lost 45 lbs in like a month.

That's unhealthy.

I wonder how the weight loss will affect his play? His game is predicated on leverage and bully ball. Being short and stout works for him.

I'm intrigued. One of my favorite prototypes is the overweight-but-still-pretty-athletic guy who loses a lot of weight. Imagine how much more athletic he is with 45 less pounds to carry around? He would definitely be worth a camp invite. Udonis Haslem did this 20 years ago and ended up being a good NBA player.

The big question is how did he lose that much weight so fast, and whether or it is likely to stay off. It seems odd that he couldn't manage to lose some of that weight during the college season.

[nate33]

Do I remember DeJuan Blair?

Two things I said before his draft: 1. His advanced stats look better to me than Blake Griffin's. 2. I would only count his knees for about three seasons.

If you look at Blair's career, you see he started as a rookie on a San Antonio playoff team. He was foul-plagued.

Proceed with caution on Topic, Castle and every other prospect with knee injury concerns.

I was drinking the Blair juice with you. I thought I saw some Wes Unseld/Elton Brand vibes, but we were completely off.

I was pounding the table for Blair too. And in retrospect, I still think it was a mistake not to draft him with the #32 pick. He ended up going at #37. He had 5 seasons as a solid role player before his knees gave out. He averaged 15 points and 11 boards per 36 minutes over his first 5 seasons while being paid vet-minimum money. That's pretty good value for a high second round pick. Instead, we sold the pick for cash.

[pancakes3]

Man, 2009, what a draft. Lotta guys I thought would be good and didn't work out like Earl Clark, Austin Daye, and BJ Mullens.

Based on who was left on the board for that second rounder, I thought there was a lot of value available between Blair, Jodie Meeks, Budinger, Calathes, Danny Green, Patty Mills, and Marcus Thornton. Patty Mills had already made his international debut in Beijing, iirc.

I think I was highest on Meeks. Dude was dropping 50-burgers in college but everyone was paying more attention to Steph.

[AFM]

Read on Twitter

DJ burns has lost 45 lbs in like a month.

That's unhealthy.

I wonder how the weight loss will affect his play? His game is predicated on leverage and bully ball. Being short and stout works for him.

I'm intrigued. One of my favorite prototypes is the overweight-but-still-pretty-athletic guy who loses a lot of weight. Imagine how much more athletic he is with 45 less pounds to carry around? He would definitely be worth a camp invite. Udonis Haslem did this 20 years ago and ended up being a good NBA player.

The big question is how did he lose that much weight so fast, and whether or it is likely to stay off. It seems odd that he couldn't manage to lose some of that weight during the college season.

Might have used Ozempic honestly. That’s a lot of weight for one month even at his size.

[The Consiglieri]

I don't think they'd be making picks for fit or need no matter what at this point. I think they were always going to go best available in '24, and for several more years, and make trades as they go from there. This is definitely a best talent on the board team for several years going forward and doubly so in weak drafts where they don't like much of the talent.

I haven't heard anyone with the Zards say "they don't like much of the talent." Have you? I think I heard Dawkins say pretty much the opposite...don't know whether it was a smokescreen or not though.

Dawkins has specifically stated multiple times that he doesn’t buy the narrative of a weak draft, and that a couple years from now, people will look back on 2024 as a strong draft.

Also said that teams try to create a competitive advantage by calling it a weak draft, hoping to trade up.

Already mentioned this, but I'm relaying the rumor that the bleave podcast mentioned after we won the lottery: our FO wasn't very high on the prospects likely to be available w/any slippage, and would be looking at trading down or out if we lost the lottery. That was the gist, not word for word of course.

As for the latter, what is he gonna say after the first piece of good news since they took over, "yeah, we did well in the lottery, it's just too bad this draft sucks". This draft quite obviously sucks, particularly at the top, in terms of projected long term upside of the top end talent in the class. you want to disagree, take it up with literally every analytics type and scout on the planet that I've seen quoted on it. I can't think of anyone anywhere that argued this is a good draft. Him saying he doesn't buy the narrative is pr, and nuance, nothing more. We've been around the block haven't we? Many of you guys have been posting here much longer than my 15 years. You can't be that naive. The nuance piece is simple, as a way of explaining his white lie. Most people seem to think the depth of the draft is typical or a little down versus typical drafts, the problem is that the perception of the top end talent, the first half dozen plus players IS WAY WAY WAY down versus typical drafts and of course that, and not the depth is what matters for a team like us bereft of talent. It matters ---- all to us that we could land a complimentary player, a nice 4th or 5th option, when we don't have a 1st, 2nd or 3rd that any team would consider their top 3. This draft is empty of exactly what we need most: high end talent, so any kind of idea that the narrative that its weak is wrong doesn't apply to us since the zone of talent we care most about is the one the consensus everywhere agrees is the weakest portion of the draft itself.

[nate33]

I don't think they'd be making picks for fit or need no matter what at this point. I think they were always going to go best available in '24, and for several more years, and make trades as they go from there. This is definitely a best talent on the board team for several years going forward and doubly so in weak drafts where they don't like much of the talent.

I haven't heard anyone with the Zards say "they don't like much of the talent." Have you? I think I heard Dawkins say pretty much the opposite...don't know whether it was a smokescreen or not though.

Dawkins has specifically stated multiple times that he doesn’t buy the narrative of a weak draft, and that a couple years from now, people will look back on 2024 as a strong draft.

Also said that teams try to create a competitive advantage by calling it a weak draft, hoping to trade up.

Or maybe it's Dawkins trying to create a competitive advantage by calling it a strong draft.

[NatP4]

Again, no one has a clue about whether or not this will end up being a strong or weak draft. Impossible to know.

[NatP4]

I haven't heard anyone with the Zards say "they don't like much of the talent." Have you? I think I heard Dawkins say pretty much the opposite...don't know whether it was a smokescreen or not though.

Dawkins has specifically stated multiple times that he doesn’t buy the narrative of a weak draft, and that a couple years from now, people will look back on 2024 as a strong draft.

Also said that teams try to create a competitive advantage by calling it a weak draft, hoping to trade up.

Or maybe it's Dawkins trying to create a competitive advantage by calling it a strong draft.

Of course. There’s nothing to make of any pre-draft comments or reports. That includes some bulletsforever podcast.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I was drinking the Blair juice with you. I thought I saw some Wes Unseld/Elton Brand vibes, but we were completely off.

I was pounding the table for Blair too. And in retrospect, I still think it was a mistake not to draft him with the #32 pick. He ended up going at #37. He had 5 seasons as a solid role player before his knees gave out. He averaged 15 points and 11 boards per 36 minutes over his first 5 seasons while being paid vet-minimum money. That's pretty good value for a high second round pick. Instead, we sold the pick for cash.

I knew that I knew about Blair. Of course it was a mistake not drafting him.

That draft was the year I was hollering we should draft Curry and Blair.

[payitforward]

The thing about the draft, any draft, is that this entire category of activities is inherently uncertain.

I don't care how sure a thing someone seems, there is still & always a significant possibility that he doesn't work out. It's just something you have to accept.

The only quasi-protection against it is to turn 1 pick into 2 by way of a trade. But, of course, you show chance out one door with that, then you let it back in via the other door, since you have to presume that at least one of those picks is even chancier than the one you traded!

Moreover, to the degree that it offers some inherent kind of advantage, the market counteracts some of that by adjusting pick valuation over time.

All the same, given who/where we are, I'd a lot rather have more picks, even if they're lower.

[80sballboy]

2025 potential Wiz guard?

Read on Twitter

[Dat2U]

Will do a deeper dive on Salaun. So far my concern is his awareness which can certainly improve. By all accounts his last game was ***by far*** his most complete game so I kinda take it with a grain of salt although progression is certainly positive. I think he's a future 4 based on his movements and frame.

Have you looked at Dadiet yet?

I can't find a real good breakdown on him yet. The film I saw was impressive tho. He's got some creation off the bounce and moves well for his size. I also think he has a solid frame. I need to see more tho. At the moment I like him better than Ja'Kobe Walter.

[payitforward]

Hey Consiglieri: I want to respond to several of your points. Ones which I think are either over-drawn or otherwise inaccurate. I'm going to do it in a series of posts, b/c I have to write too much for a single one.

I'm not doing this, b/c I want a fight -- or even b/c I don't share any of your concerns. I'm doing it b/c you seem utterly convinced of a bunch of stuff that either history or logic shows might well be inaccurate.

... relaying the rumor that ...our FO wasn't very high on the prospects likely to be available w/any slippage, and would be looking at trading down or out if we lost the lottery....

The first problem with that idea is that "trading down" is the exact opposite of "trading out."

Trading out of a draft means you walk away with no picks (tho, obviously, with some other asset). But... trading down gets you MORE pick from that draft! It's entirely different from trading out! In fact, it indicates a belief in the depth of the draft. After all, you don't trade a pick for a lower pick, you trade a pick for 2 or more lower picks!

Note that I'm definitely in accord w/ that POV, btw -- whatever doubts one has about the future careers of the top few picks, IMO there is a very deep talent pool of guys who will be solid NBA players or, maybe, way better than that.

So... that's my first objection!
(Now I gotta walk the dog. More in a bit)

[pancakes3]

Again, no one has a clue about whether or not this will end up being a strong or weak draft. Impossible to know.

I just reject this binary of have a clue or don't have a clue, strong draft or weak draft. But on the spectrum of things, with multiple front offices (and their scouting departments) and legions of armchair RealGM's (tm) all generally agreeing that it's a weak draft, if we frame it in terms of probability, it's more likely than not that this ends up being a weak draft. And even if there's an all-nba guy or two in this draft, the overall careers of these guys (see James, Bronny being a serious candidate) is probably going to be on average worse than other drafts.

That's a lot of hedging and noncommital language, but that's the world we live it. It's probabilistic, not determinative/predictive.

[payitforward]

Consig -- one key point you seem to make is that, "because this draft is so weak, so lacking in talent, we will not be able to get the outstanding kind of player you'd have reason to hope you'd pull with the 2d pick in the draft." I.e. someone w/ a shot to be the best (or at least the 2d best) player on a really good team.

If I'm right, you may want to check this out:

Spoiler:

Michael Beasley
Hasheem Thabeet
Evan Turner
Victor Oladipo
Derrick Williams
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Victor Oladipo
Jabari Parker
D’Angelo Russell
Brandon Ingram
Lonzo Ball
Marvin Bagley III
Ja Morant
James Wiseman
Jalen Green

That's a list of every #2 pick over the baker's dozen years beginning in 2009. There have been a tremendous number of great great players come into the league over that period. Those guys, however...? Mostly bad, mostly extremely disappointing. One outstanding exception in 2019, but overall...? Kinda sad I'd say...

[payitforward]

...I just reject this binary of have a clue or don't have a clue, strong draft or weak draft. But on the spectrum of things, with multiple front offices (and their scouting departments) and legions of armchair RealGM's (tm) all generally agreeing that it's a weak draft, if we frame it in terms of probability, it's more likely than not that this ends up being a weak draft....

Nope. Thankfully...

Cascading certainty about something of this kind has zero effect, good or bad, on the real-world outcome. Literally zero. It has to do with how the population you refer to above relate to one another & to waves of opinion.

...the overall careers of these guys ... is probably going to be on average worse than other drafts.

No.
Literally no.

Don't get me wrong -- it might turn out that way. Just as it might turn out that way in any draft. But there is literally nothing whatever in the real world to make one think that the overall level of play of the 58 draft picks (whatever number make the league plus whatever undrafted guys who make the league )will be below (or above) the average results of a draft. That's not how probability works. Hence

...that's the world we live it. It's probabilistic, not determinative/predictive.

Exactly! Except...you just made a sequence of predictive statements!

[pancakes3]

truly cursed to draft oladipo 2x.

Just by a brief look at #2 picks, there are two significant runs of bad #2's. From 2002-2005 (Jay Will, Darko, Emeka, Marvin Williams) and from 2008-2020 (Thabeet, Evan Turner, Derrick Williams, MKG, Oladipo, Jabari Parker, D'Angelo Russell, Brandon Ingram (ish), Lonzo, Marvin Bagley).

From correlation, the lesson seems to be to stay away from Duke players.

There also seems to be some mental/physical health issues between JWill, Ja, Beasley, and Lonzo.

The latest 3: Jalen Green, Brandon Miller, and Chet seem to be bucking the bust trend.

And taking a wider look, there's some really good players: KD, LMA, Stevie Franchise, JKidd, Bibby, 'Zo, Gary Payton, Isiah Thomas.

But the curse seems to predate 2002, with infamously Sam Bowie and Len Bias in the 80's.

[NatP4]

Again, no one has a clue about whether or not this will end up being a strong or weak draft. Impossible to know.

I just reject this binary of have a clue or don't have a clue, strong draft or weak draft. But on the spectrum of things, with multiple front offices (and their scouting departments) and legions of armchair RealGM's (tm) all generally agreeing that it's a weak draft, if we frame it in terms of probability, it's more likely than not that this ends up being a weak draft. And even if there's an all-nba guy or two in this draft, the overall careers of these guys (see James, Bronny being a serious candidate) is probably going to be on average worse than other drafts.

That's a lot of hedging and noncommital language, but that's the world we live it. It's probabilistic, not determinative/predictive.

That’s not at all how that works. You’ll have to show me some evidence regarding the correlation between public consensus(difficult/impossible to measure) and the results/quality of the draft. Obviously the public consensus has no effect on the actual outcome, but I don’t think you were trying to make that point.

None of us have a clue what NBA GMs/scouting departments think.