Alex Sarr

[Zonkerbl]

Alex very clearly does not have the strength to finish effectively inside and he will not get better at that in the middle of the season, that is something he has to work on in the offseason. It is a common problem, all 19 year olds are not as strong as they will be as 22 year olds, except maybe Dwight Howard. I am confident Alex will be stronger in a year or two, just like Mobley got stronger, and he will become more effective, just like Mobley became more effective. Alex's 3 pt % is better, despite his early season struggles, than Mobley's was when he came into the league.

[DCZards]

Garnett, Kareem, Towns, Davis, Mobley. Let’s stop these silly comparisons. Who cares! Let Sarr be Sarr.

[The Consiglieri]

Yeah I'm not arguing Sarr is as good as KG either. What I'm trying to say is everyone's numbers suck when they are trying to play in the NBA at 19, no matter how good they are. I would be interested in an analysis of all 19 year old NBA players - have any of them averaged more than 20 ppg?

Kevin Durant scored 20 ppg as a 19 year old.

Doncic scored 21 ppg.

LeBron scored 20.9 ppg.

https://www.audacy.com/wtic/blogs/rob-joyce/best-teenage-seasons-nba-history

Just tossing these two names out there: 19-year-olds Kareem Anthony Townes and Evan Mobley. IMO, Sarr's not as good as either.

Anthony Davis was far better at 19 years old.

I don't mean to knock Sarr. It's just my appraisal.

Oh yeah definitely. I think the lesson to learn from this discussion is to trust your eyes. The stats you put up as a 19 year old are not very informative. Although averaging double digit points and putting up decent rebounding numbers as a teenager is an indicator you are not a bust.

That's where you and I part ways, kinda, I get what you guys are getting at, and I can see it myself. I remember watching Garnett back then and there was always a holy ---- quality to him from the jump, just like with Wallace (which is why I hated the Strick trade), Sarr doesn't do that for me, and honestly I don't think anybody, even the pro Sarr types like me are trying to suggest, what seems like more of the consensus with him is that there are flashes you see of that athleticism, flashes of the versatility, the tools, that are exciting, but flashes are still flashes, and none of the flashes scream "garnett," it's just more a case of what he's doing, and the flashes, suggest "not a bust" at least to me anyway, which is what I was praying with him (not a bust, and enough flashes to suggest a lot of potential upside).

I do fear the eye think though because vividness bias is real, and generally speaking, tape scouting, and just trusting your eyes, sometimes is spot on, and sometimes leads you to just incredibly stupid takes in sports. We heard for six months, for instance, that Drake Maye's footwork and Mechanics were apocalyptically bad, and then, he stepped right in, and was immediately the best starting QB New England has had the past 25 years other than Brady and Bledsoe, it was all bull---, in other cases people fall in love with a Najee Harris who loves contact, and a few years later, you have a 3 yards grinder jag who isn't going to be resigned. Sometimes you overemphasize some things you see, sometimes you imagine things you see when you're not seeing what you think you're seeing (interceptions in pro football perfectly exemplify this), and sometimes you just have a bias towards underating or overrating certain particular traits and when you see them, you overemphasize or rate them for a given prospect.

I think the truth is in the middle of all this, you've got to look at all of it, every layer of it, and even when you're that thorough, you can still end up wrong.

[Zonkerbl]

Garnett, Kareem, Towns, Davis, Mobley. Let’s stop these silly comparisons. Who cares! Let Sarr be Sarr.

JFC. Assuming this is directed at me? At least read my post before leaping to conclusions

[nate33]

I'm certainly not advocating for Sarr in a KG vs Sarr debate. I'm just saying the comparison is closer that I thought. Sarr's having a good year. If he can have Mobley's trajectory, that'd be huge for us. He doesn't need to have a first ballot HOF, top 5 PF of all time career for me to be satisfied.

I would have picked Alex Sarr at 2. If the draft were held again today, I'd still pick him at 2.

But, no, he's not "having a good year," & no he's not on Evan "Mobley's trajectory." The biggest & most obvious difference between the two guys as rookies is TS% -- Mobley was at 54.1%; Alex is at 49.6%.

That difference is entirely a function of 2-pt. shooting -- Alex Sarr is at 46%, which is absolutely terrible for a Center -- the league average is over 59%.

OTOH, who knows where Mobley was halfway through that rookie year. If Alex can get better at scoring inside, maybe the comparison will make sense. Not for the moment, however.

It's worth noting that rookie Sarr is 9 months younger than rookie Mobley.

[payitforward]

Absolutely -- nor was my post meant as critical (why I started it as I did).

[gesa2]

Another point regarding evaluating Sarr and through him the Front office - if you believe we should be aiming for the highest upside swings with draft picks at this stage, as I do, then you also have to accept that this risk/ reward decision is going to come with a bust rate that is higher than if we stayed with a safer lower ceiling player. So even if Sarr doesn’t work out, if we think the process of choosing him was good then we should be ok with the decision to take him. Nobody has a perfect draft record. The Thunder drafted Josh Giddey at 6 for god’s sake.
We won’t have enough data to criticize the actual choices the front office picks for a long time if ever - the number of data points is way too small. Those that are doing so IMO have an issue with the strategy not the execution or have an axe to grind about a particular decision.

[payitforward]

On the money, gesa2 !!!

[Zonkerbl]

It's tricky. Sarr was looking completely hopeless out there for the first few months of the season and now he is looking a little better, now that his three is starting to fall. But he still is too weak to finish at the rim. I would MUCH MUCH rather have someone whose jumper looks good but is too weak, rather than someone who is really strong but has a shaky jumper. Jumper's are much harder to develop than strength. So I haven't given up on Sarr, he could still be a decent player, maybe Mobley lite, maybe Mobley if all goes well. I want to see how he does when he grows into his frame.

[The Consiglieri]

It's tricky. Sarr was looking completely hopeless out there for the first few months of the season and now he is looking a little better, now that his three is starting to fall. But he still is too weak to finish at the rim. I would MUCH MUCH rather have someone whose jumper looks good but is too weak, rather than someone who is really strong but has a shaky jumper. Jumper's are much harder to develop than strength. So I haven't given up on Sarr, he could still be a decent player, maybe Mobley lite, maybe Mobley if all goes well. I want to see how he does when he grows into his frame.

in fairness, his awful start was basically about a month, October 24th to around November 24th. He also was horrific in summer league apparently (I pay no attention to that) which is probably why it feels like months of suck. He’s had two good months now after opening the season in god awful form (or at least, two non-suck months).

[tontoz]

It's tricky. Sarr was looking completely hopeless out there for the first few months of the season and now he is looking a little better, now that his three is starting to fall. But he still is too weak to finish at the rim. I would MUCH MUCH rather have someone whose jumper looks good but is too weak, rather than someone who is really strong but has a shaky jumper. Jumper's are much harder to develop than strength. So I haven't given up on Sarr, he could still be a decent player, maybe Mobley lite, maybe Mobley if all goes well. I want to see how he does when he grows into his frame.

in fairness, his awful start was basically about a month, October 24th to around November 24th. He also was horrific in summer league apparently (I pay no attention to that) which is probably why it feels like months of suck. He’s had two good months now after opening the season in god awful form (or at least, two non-suck months).

Sarr has a TS of 49% this month. He is bordering on suck.

[willbcocks]

I'm focused on little things. His hands look better. Honestly I think catching the ball well is often a sign of confidence or being in the flow of the game, not actual hand eye coordination, and he's looking better on this front.

He's getting in better position on offensive rebounds. Getting some tip outs.

He looks a little better in one on one defense against non centers. This is probably because they are hiding him from centers. But he actually looked good guarding Durant.

Defensive rebounding is still a complete disaster. If he looked half decent at defensive rebounding I think we would all be thrilled. But he does not.

The good news is he's shown the ability to improve.

[doclinkin]

As Sarr's biggest doubter in the draft thread, I'm encouraged with his play. I agree with Zonk that working on his jumper while he can feel free to chuck it is a fine place to fire-test his face-up game. As a seven footer he shows flashes of finesse and is light on his feet. Not what you usually want in your seven footers. But this is a different league, where the Unicorn types are drafting a new role. I don't love it, and can see the teeter-totter potentially tilting, but I understand that teams will need a perimeter skilled Big in order to deal with the others who join the league. Especially on defense. I think KD is right in saying in a few years this team may be tough defenders given the length they can throw at the perimeter.

As for the need for Sarr to embiggen and play heavy underneath. I'm okay with the team taking their time on that. OKC lost Chet for large chunks of his rookie contract by battling in the interior while he lacked the muscle to do so. Porzingis likewise spent much of his early potential in trying to bulk up quickly but spending more time with leg problems than with effective front court play.

I personally don't think Sarr will ever grow into an unstoppable front court monster. I want him to learn skills like the Duncan mid range bank shot or the Kareem skyhook that let him score efficiently without having to muscle it out. That is not his forte. He's a finesse guy. He's a smart passer. Add a free throw jumper and he can play point pivot from the top of the key. Surround him with shooters and he can play the highpost center who only dunks when he has a lane to attack with a running start. Until then work on his hands and coordination.

Yes as he grows into full grown strength he will probably be better at controlling the ball in traffic and finishing if bumped. Fine. That will come naturally. The way it did for Porzingis. Meanwhile core strength and balance and touch are more important than expecting him to rebound contested balls in the interior. He has a high center of gravity and will always be able to be bulldozed by players boxing him out. I don't want him jumping up and down and landing on dudes feet. Because a 7 foot perimeter defender is a harder thing to find than a junkyard dog who can do the dirty work underneath. A weakside shot blocker who moves his feet well can force the miss for another guy to collect even if he isn't a deterrent as a rear-line monster.

Plus those guys come late and cheap. Rasheer Fleming. Thomas Sorber. Collin Murray-Boyles. Jojo Tugler. Derik Queen. Johni Broome. JT Toppin. Danny Wolf. Khaman Maluach. There are guys mid first and deep into the 2nd round who are available and hungry to play the role.

Not to mention guys at the top of the ticket like Flagg and Bailey who fight ferociously underneath. Undaunted by size.

Yeah Sarr needs to get better. Every player on a losing team can say the same. I'm confident though the player you see at the end of his rookie contract will look much different than the raw recruit you see playing out there. I don't get the sense he shrinks under the spotlight or expectations the way many other tall athletic bigs have done in the past. He seems calm, focused, and learning as he goes. He's no KG, but Big Ticket was one-of-one. Its okay if Sarr is unlikely to be a HOFer. He has a chance to be a 1st team all-defense guy though, that does seem a goal worth putting on his dream board.

[Benjammin]

For those disappointed in or dumping on Sarr, you obviously weren't around for Kwame in his first year. I don't think anyone is saying he's a good player or contributing wins on a team with 6 wins halfway through the season. We're looking for improvement and skills being shown and developed.

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[Despy]

There might be a lot of well deserved Jan Vesely PTSD going around

[dobrojim]

At this time, I think the pick was completely defensible. He’s already shown he is
capable as a three pt shooter and a rim defender (needs to get stronger). But the
other parts of his offense needs to be ratcheted back to lower degree of difficulty
shots. Fewer spin moves and turnaround shots. Lately those shots are making him
look silly. Not saying don’t ever try them but use a little self consciousness
and don’t imitate Kuz.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

As a 19 year old Kwame Brown put up 4.5 ppg and 3.5 rpg

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/brownkw01.html

Kwame had 0.5 blocks per game, Sarr has had 1.6

Look at that roster.

Popeye Jones age, 31
Christian Laettner, age 32
Jahidi White, age 25
Brendan Haywood, age 22
Each played more minutes than 19-year-old Kwame
Elan Thomas, age 23, played slightly less minutes

Guys who played four years in the ACC or the Big East, all NBA veterans with jerk MJ and lackey Doug Collins welcomed Kwame to the league. Having surly Haywood and arrogant Thomas on the team was horrible for a young guy like Kwame. They crushed his confidence.

I think roster construction should have been the prime consideration. It was nonsensical to draft Kwame.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2001.html

Look at that draft! Pau Gasol, Jason Richardson, Shane Battier, Joe Johnson, Richard Jefferson, Zach Randolph, Gerald Wallace, Tony Parker, GILBERT ARENAS.

Kwame never should have been the pick. If he had gone to Chicago like Tyson Chandler or Eddy Curry, he wouldn't be considered a huge bust.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

For those disappointed in or dumping on Sarr, you obviously weren't around for Kwame in his first year. I don't think anyone is saying he's a good player or contributing wins on a team with 6 wins halfway through the season. We're looking for improvement and skills being shown and developed.

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk

Kwame was drafted into the worst possible scenario.

He was 19.
Brendan Haywood was 22.
Evan Thomas was 23.
Jahidi White was 25.
Starter (?) Popeye Jones was 31
Starter (?) Christian Laettner was 32

None of those guys were mentors. That's a nonsupportive team coached by lackey Doug Collins and berated by hypercritical MJ. Guys who were recruited by and played for Dean Smith, Mike Krzyzewski, John Thompson, and Jim Boeheim going after a kid from a small conference HS program.

Kwame was shellshocked his first year.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Wow, I repeated myself.

I thought I posted in two different threads.

[9 and 20]

Once upon a time, Kwame had a 30 and 20 game. Not much to do with Sarr, it's just still funny that he somehow managed that.