2016 Offseason Thread -- Not (just) #KD2DC

[Ruzious]

My fear is that b/c we missed out on Durant, Ernie's going to freak out and give Parsons the max.

Could be - and while Parsons is a good player, the Wiz would play him at stretch 4 - where he's not strong enough, long enough, and doesn't rebound well enough.

[payitforward]

I don't understand the idea of rebuilding when your core is already young. Wall is not an old dude, he's just entering his best years. It's also the first time that Wall, Beal, Porter etc will be playing for a legitimate head coach. I know people want to say Wittman was an average head coach but I think that's a very generous analysis of his abilities. I viewed him as one of the poorest coaches in the game. You could make a case that maybe Byron Scott or Mo Cheeks (when he coached) were nearly as bad but he was a stubborn man, with an outdated philosophy & an inability/unwillingness to adjust to situations in a timely manner. I also think he was piss poor in putting guys in their best positions to succeed. And it didn't help that his coaching staff was widely regarded as one of the weakest in league so firing & replacing him with an assistant during the regular season wasn't even an option.

You tank in the hopes of getting a guy like Wall. You dump salaries in hopes of having $30+ mil in cap room. We aren't in a terrible position. The roster is bare bones with no bad contracts (at least until mid-July). We honestly don't need to tank & rebuild. We need a savvy GM to build off what's already there and add a key piece or two.

We don't "need to tank & rebuild", but a team with 6 players under contract is "building" as a matter of definition. And, of course, all building is rebuilding.

As you know just as well as I do, good teams are constantly rebuilding -- see the recent Thunder trade of Ibaka for younger guys and their trade into R2 as well. See Atlanta's rebuilding the PG position on their team, etc.

But, I think this is really semantics -- I certainly wouldn't recommend tanking. In fact, I can't remember a case where I would have recommended that. You play the game to win.

The suggestions I made were in order to get us productive, underrated players who are entering or still in their prime and would make us better now while also giving us assets that are easy to trade at the point when we can reach out to attract a top player in the league.

Can Brooks alone make us a better team? Sure. A little bit. But it's unclear how much better, and of course we'll never know since we're going to be rather a different team from last year's. In the end, though, it's player productivity that wins games, lack thereof that loses games. We'll see whether Brooks can put e.g. Beal in his best position to succeed. I hope so!

We certainly need a savvy GM! And we certainly don't have one. But "add a key piece or two" isn't the key to this team's success (unless of course by "key piece" you mean someone like Durant or LeBron, which I assume you don't). We have an extensive series of awful moves, the consequences of which we still have to get past.

Well admittedly two key pieces. Al Horford would be a nice one though. I think Horford, with a healthy Wall & Beal could push us above 50 wins with the caveats of good health & Brooks not encouraging long 2s and as he said in his own words, attacking the basket more. Hopefully the days of Wall coming down and jacking a 20 ft without anyone touching the ball - because he's open - is over; and the same goes for running a Beal/Gortat P&R with Wall standing in the corner twiddling his thumbs. Also I always thought Porter was more than just a 3&D guy but we as an organization seemed stuck on fitting round pegs into square holes, I put a lot of blame on the coaching staff for our 3 high draft picks under-performing. I am quite anxious to see what the Wizards do on the court in a post Wittman era. I know you'd likely question whether there would be much variance in performance due to a coaching change but I do feel the Wizards situation is unique. IMO it was literally insane how Wittman got 4+ years with this team.

Assuming Horford played 2600+ minutes -- about his average -- and that he replaced an average NBA 4, he'd be likely to add 4-5 wins to a team. Assuming him as a direct replacement for Morris (i.e. a thought experiment -- 2 identical teams, one w/ Horford not Morris, the other w/ Morris not Horford), he'd be worth a couple of games more than that, because Morris is below average NBA 4.

You'd have to imagine Brooks as being worth at least 4 wins all on his own, in other words, to think we might be a 50-win team w/ Horford starting at the 4. That's a lot, though I don't suppose it's inconceivable.

It's off topic for this thread, but it'd be interesting to analyze the effect on OKC of going from Brooks to Billy Donovan as coach. Effect on wins, I mean.

[payitforward]

How bout the Wizards do a "Sam Hinkie Special" on Christian Wood and Jarnell Stokes (sign both guys to 4 year deals with team options on each year).

I think Wood can be Thad Young 2.0. He needs a lot of seasoning but the talent is there. I got a radical idea (it's not). Why not just stash him in the D-League for a year? There he can get more experience and develop a 3 point shot.

Long time Stokes fan. Even though he doesn't fit the model of a modern day stretch PF, he is too good not to make it in the League. He can hit open mid-range shots and play smart defense.

I wanted to add Khem Birch on this list but he just signed a deal with Olympiancos. I think he can be Branden Wright 2.0

Also i would piggyback what other Wizards fans have wrote and sign Cole Aldrich and Matt Barnes (the Wiz desperately need an enforcer) to, 2 year deals.

It's too bad Ty Lawson and Roy Hibbert don't seem to be reliable players at this point. I think they would both take min deals to come back home.

Pretty creative thinking. You should post more often than twice a year.

Agreed. What is it GWG? Are you busy or something?

I like Stokes a lot. I'd forgotten that he was available. He's played a grand total of 160 NBA minutes, but he's killed it in the D League. He's a no-brainer to get a shot with an NBA team. We should be that team.

And I would certainly bring in Wood (have suggested that a few times). Ditto Birch, whom we actually had in SL in 2014; he played very well, but we didn't keep him (!). And of course a big double down ditto on Aldrich.

[Rafael122]

My fear is that b/c we missed out on Durant, Ernie's going to freak out and give Parsons the max.

Could be - and while Parsons is a good player, the Wiz would play him at stretch 4 - where he's not strong enough, long enough, and doesn't rebound well enough.

Good player, it's the knees that concern me. Him and Cuban are tight, if they're moving on from him, then something is wrong IMO.

[payitforward]

Adding Horford would make us a better team. Duh. Last year, if we'd had Horford as our starting 4, and neither Dudley nor Morris were on the team, best analysis is that we'd have won 6 more games.

Thing is... you can do that same narrative for any good player you pick who's unrestricted. There'll be a number of more wins that seems sensible.

So what? Al Horford is pretty likely to stay in Atlanta. Those other good players you could point to, how many of them are likely to join the Wizards?

We're most likely to get Jeff Green, and he won't help a bit. Or Ryan Anderson, and he won't help much either.

[dckingsfan]

Okay, we are just dreaming here - but if we had Horford, I think we are 10 wins better.

No way we play that silly offense... our D becomes much improved.

But again, just dreaming...

[stevemcqueen1]

Okay, we are just dreaming here - but if we had Horford, I think we are 10 wins better.

No way we play that silly offense... our D becomes much improved.

But again, just dreaming...

For what Horford by himself could bring, I think Monte's estimate of 6 feels right. Or maybe 5. I think we probably got about 4 wins total from our PF position last season. Horford would probably be a 9 WS player for the next few seasons. Maybe 10 if we're lucky and he fit in really smoothly.

But that doesn't account for the effect he'd have on the other players we already have. Players like Horford help the whole roster by being good enough to push their teammates into lesser roles that they are better suited for. Case in point would be Markieff Morris. He's probably a 5 win share player. As an average option for a starting PF at best. But as a third big? Pretty good quality for that role. So instead of getting like 1 or 2 win shares from our third big role, maybe we get 5. Add those 3 or 4 to Horford's 5 or 6 and now you've really improved from last season. Figure Gortat is a 7 or 8 WS player, so add 7 to 9 and 5 and that's a lot of production from your big man rotation. It's not elite, but it's good enough that if we can get 20-22 wins from our back court and 8 or 9 from our wings, then that is likely a 50 win team.

[Rafael122]

When it comes to these contracts, I'm assuming most guys are going to get 4 years, but opt out after 3? Is that how this works now?

[stevemcqueen1]

When it comes to these contracts, I'm assuming most guys are going to get 4 years, but opt out after 3? Is that how
this works now?

Probably varies on a case by case basis. It makes sense for a lot of players right now because the cap is jumping so rapidly and their earning potential is still so good. But if the cap decreases in two summers, then it might not make sense to opt out early any more. Or say you are coming off an injury riddled season where your market value has taken a real hit. Then you would probably stay on your current deal, unless you were unhappy with the team and the money didn't matter to you.

Also, I think some players make a big mistake by opting out early. I think that Kevin Love made this mistake last summer. He could have played out his final year in Cleveland, won a ring, then left for a team like Golden State this summer where he would presumably be a better fit and play a bigger role and still contend for rings.

[Rafael122]

When it comes to these contracts, I'm assuming most guys are going to get 4 years, but opt out after 3? Is that how
this works now?

Probably varies on a case by case basis. It makes sense for a lot of players right now because the cap is jumping so rapidly and their earning potential is still so good. But if the cap decreases in two summers, then it might not make sense to opt out early any more. Or say you are coming off an injury riddled season where your market value has taken a real hit. Then you would probably stay on your current deal, unless you were unhappy with the team and the money didn't matter to you.

Also, I think some players make a big mistake by opting out early. I think that Kevin Love made this mistake last summer. He could have played out his final year in Cleveland, won a ring, then left for a team like Golden State this summer where he would presumably be a better fit and play a bigger role and still contend for rings.

Hammered that point a lot on the general board. He would have been Option B for teams who struck out on Durant.

[Rafael122]

The problem I have with getting Whiteside or Horford or any center is that you're gonna have to move Gortat. And Gortat, in this new cap era, is an absolute steal and we're not going to get full value for him. Dude's making $12 million next season, Whiteside's first year salary will be double that. Sure you'll have a ton of suitors, but realistically what can you get for Gortat besides picks?

[stevemcqueen1]

Whiteside is a pure center, but I think Horford can play PF beside Gortat. In fact I think Horford's best position has actually been PF all these years and that he was forced to play C because Atlanta never had a worthy C on their roster. And their second best player has been Josh Smith and Paul Millsap, who are undersized PFs that can't play C.

Horford can score from each of the different zones on the floor, and he has a three ball. Made 100 threes on 35% shooting last season. He catches and shoots well from the right corner and the space starting at the top of the key moving down almost to the FT line extended.

Horford's versatility is one of the big sources of his value. He could play PF in line ups with Gortat and C in line ups with Morris.

Signing Whiteside would necessitate trading Gortat though.

[80sballboy]

Darrell Arthur (another piece, sorry he's not KD or AH)

http://wizofawes.com/2016/06/27/washington-wizards-darrell-arthur-nba-free-agency-2016/

[Dark Faze]

I've never been a huge Gortat guy--but he's got too much value to move on from as a starting C. Whiteside is too much of an unknown emotionally to give a 5 year deal too. And even as a model citizen I don't think he moves the needle that much. Would rather bring in a guy like Roy Hibbert in to come off the bench and see if he can't be inspired to take the job from Gortat.

I think my mindset right now with the Wiz is Kelly Oubre, Kelly Oubre, oh, and more Kelly Oubre. His development has become paramount. If he has the potential to become a great player than we need to speed up that development any way we can--meaning him being our starting SF sooner rather than later.

Not that big a fan of Kieff at the 4. Hopefully he's okay with a bench role because the positions will need an upgrade in some form.

I've said it before too--Gasol is the perfect stop gap option that allows us to compete in the playoffs but also have money coming to us for another max player in a summer or two.

[pcbothwel]

The problem I have with getting Whiteside or Horford or any center is that you're gonna have to move Gortat. And Gortat, in this new cap era, is an absolute steal and we're not going to get full value for him. Dude's making $12 million next season, Whiteside's first year salary will be double that. Sure you'll have a ton of suitors, but realistically what can you get for Gortat besides picks?

I agree with Steve here. If we sign Horford, we can play him at the 4 and he'll still get 12-15 minutes at the 5. I actually think Gortat has a really good year next year.

Wall / Curry
Beal / Sato
Otto / Oubre
Horford / Morris
Gortat / Horford

That's 48-52 Wins

Plus, you have to remember that Gortat on a 3/38M deal with a 94M cap is pretty good value, but the FA class includes Whiteside, Horford, Howard, Noah, Mahinmi, Plumlee, Ezeli, Boban, and Aldrich make his trade value lower.

However, Gortat on a 2/26M deal with a 108M cap is great value, and then you add in that while the 2017 is historic at the 1-4, its very weak at the 5. It's only Bogut as a true Center, with Ibaka more of a 4.

So we then go into 2017 with a 50 Win team and Trade assets (Gortat, Morris, One of Oubre/Otto, picks) if we want to trade for another 4/5. My pick is Favors as i think him and Horford would make a really strong tandem.

Using the Ibaka trade as a barometer, We'd need to send a young lotto pick coming off rookie contract (Otto or Oubre), a mid 1st (Trade Gortat to 3rd team), and depth (Ilyasova) our own 1st or Morris.

Wall / Curry
Beal / Sato
Otto / Sato
Horford / Morris
Favors / Morris

Just trying to make chicken salad out of... whatever we are.

[gambitx777]

Why is everyone saying that if you get Whiteside that you have to move Gortat. At least ask him if he is willing to split time at center, I mean he basically split time the last two years anyway when NENE was healthy. Talk to him and see if he is willing to come off the bench because omeny wise its doable because 10 mill is basically going to be the new midlevel more or less. Ask him see if you can talk him in to it because if you have White side starting and then you can bring a starting caliber center off your bench. that would be huge, that is something most teams can not do now a days.

[verbal8]

I've never been a huge Gortat guy--but he's got too much value to move on from as a starting C. Whiteside is too much of an unknown emotionally to give a 5 year deal too. And even as a model citizen I don't think he moves the needle that much. Would rather bring in a guy like Roy Hibbert in to come off the bench and see if he can't be inspired to take the job from Gortat.

One prediction for the offseason I am very confident in is that Whiteside will not sign a 5-year deal. Miami does not have his full-Bird rights. His salary is so low his early-bird rights don't give him a competitive salary - so whoever signs him is using cap space.

[gambitx777]

Why is everyone saying that if you get Whiteside that you have to move Gortat. At least ask him if he is willing to split time at center, I mean he basically split time the last two years anyway when NENE was healthy. Talk to him and see if he is willing to come off the bench because omeny wise its doable because 10 mill is basically going to be the new midlevel more or less. Ask him see if you can talk him in to it because if you have White side starting and then you can bring a starting caliber center off your bench. that would be huge, that is something most teams can not do now a days. Gortat would destroy peoples benches and as long as the team is winning and in contention for a title and he likes brooks, I don't see any reason why that can not work, it is also insurance for if whiteside implodes. gets hurt or gets suspended. I think it is small minded and out of touch to think that when the cap is so high that you can't keep two big men on your team.

[Rafael122]

Why is everyone saying that if you get Whiteside that you have to move Gortat. At least ask him if he is willing to split time at center, I mean he basically split time the last two years anyway when NENE was healthy. Talk to him and see if he is willing to come off the bench because omeny wise its doable because 10 mill is basically going to be the new midlevel more or less. Ask him see if you can talk him in to it because if you have White side starting and then you can bring a starting caliber center off your bench. that would be huge, that is something most teams can not do now a days.

Realistically, you're probably paying Whiteside to play 30 minutes a game right? I know the rising cap and all that stuff is out there, but get ego involved and you're not gonna see Gortat go from starter to 15 minute per game guy. You can't play them together that's for sure so the most likely solution is to trade him, especially to a team who struck out on Horford, Whiteside, etc.

[gtn130]

Why do people actually want Whiteside? Of anyone who is likely to regress/stop caring after getting paid, Whiteside has to be at the top of that list. And he's also a pretty cancerous teammate from everything I've read.

And we're talking about a really inconsistent player here - especially as a rim protector. He's never in good position and gambles way too much. Maxing him would be one the riskiest possible moves this offseason.