Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII

[DCZards]

This is a solid post - and one that makes me feel better about Zards and the others on that side of the fence.

I think that that core moves us to a bottom 4 in the playoffs at best. You still have the Wall/Beal ball domination - and that just isn't going to change keeping this core together. The learning and habits are very much engrained in this group. GA and the Bucks are way out of reach of that group. Same with the Celts, Pacers and Sixers with their athleticism. Hopefully Toronto will explode this off-season.

But I can see if you believed that the core SHOULD be in the top 4 you would want to keep them together.

I disagree that the Pacers & Bucks are “way out of reach.” When I look at those teams’ rosters and compare it to the Zards, I believe the Zards have as much talent (if not more) as both the Pacers & Bucks.

Yes, Giannas is a transcendent talent, but we all know it takes more than one superstar to win big. Just ask Anthony Davis.

The Zards may have problems as it relates to coaching, chemistry, player selfishness, injuries, etc., but I think they have the talent to be a top 4-6 team in the East.

[nate33]

Here's another low key "dump Ariza for salary relief" deal that's favorable for both teams. Basically it's two trades with the Lakers.

Trade 1: Ariza for KCP
Trade 2: Morris for Beasley + Zubac

All players in both deals have expiring contracts. The first trade is broken out because Ariza can't be packaged with other salary. It saves us $3M but I think we can squeeze a little more out of LA so the follow up trade saves an additional $3.56M, getting us totally out of the luxtax. LA ends up with two vets with plenty of playoff experience and they keep the decks clear for free agency in the summer. It's a win-win.

If we can't trade Ariza or Morris elsewhere for actual 2nd round picks, I think this is a worst-case scenario deal. We don't get any picks but we avoid the luxtax, make way for the youngsters, and improve our draft position.

[Ruzious]

Here's another low key "dump Ariza for salary relief" deal that's favorable for both teams. Basically it's two trades with the Lakers.

Trade 1: Ariza for KCP
Trade 2: Morris for Beasley + Zubac

All players in both deals have expiring contracts. The first trade is broken out because Ariza can't be packaged with other salary. It saves us $3M but I think we can squeeze a little more out of LA so the follow up trade saves an additional $3.56M, getting us totally out of the luxtax. LA ends up with two vets with plenty of playoff experience and they keep the decks clear for free agency in the summer. It's a win-win.

If we can't trade Ariza or Morris elsewhere for actual 2nd round picks, I think this is a worst-case scenario deal. We don't get any picks but we avoid the luxtax, make way for the youngsters, and improve our draft position.

It makes a lot of sense if the Lakers are trying to go for it this season. Zubac looked great a week or so ago when the Lakers were on national tv. They'd probably want to keep him, but maybe they have other priorities.

[nate33]

Here's another low key "dump Ariza for salary relief" deal that's favorable for both teams. Basically it's two trades with the Lakers.

Trade 1: Ariza for KCP
Trade 2: Morris for Beasley + Zubac

All players in both deals have expiring contracts. The first trade is broken out because Ariza can't be packaged with other salary. It saves us $3M but I think we can squeeze a little more out of LA so the follow up trade saves an additional $3.56M, getting us totally out of the luxtax. LA ends up with two vets with plenty of playoff experience and they keep the decks clear for free agency in the summer. It's a win-win.

If we can't trade Ariza or Morris elsewhere for actual 2nd round picks, I think this is a worst-case scenario deal. We don't get any picks but we avoid the luxtax, make way for the youngsters, and improve our draft position.

It makes a lot of sense if the Lakers are trying to go for it this season. Zubac looked great a week or so ago when the Lakers were on national tv. They'd probably want to keep him, but maybe they have other priorities.

He's a free agent in the summer and they may be exhausting all of their cap room in free agency. But if they want to keep him, the deal also works with Svi Mykhailiuk, but he is under contract next year (albeit for a cheap $1.5M). It also works with Javale McGee, but I assume they'd like to keep him as a situational option in the playoffs.

[The Consiglieri]

Jackson is trash. I like Clark but hes a rookie FA.

Basically it's the Wizards taking poo poo platter to save Ted a boat load of money. **** Ted and his money. What would we even do with the cap savings? Sign the next Mahinmi & Nicholson so we can rinse repeat three years from now?

The last thing Ernie needs is cap flexibility.

This, a 1000x this.

I couldn't give less of a ---- about the repeater tax and the luxury tax and the rest of that bull----. Ted hired this talentless hack 15 years ago and decades later he's still in place despite never building a team that could win more than one series, and consistently finishing outside of the playoffs. You don't want to pay the Lux Tax or the repeater?

Tough ----.

You could have fired this idiot after gun gate.

You could have fired this idiot after he took a dump in his pants during the '09 draft and generated the worst draft day trade of this new century in sending away the rights to a pick that could have (and based on mocks should've) landed us the player of the new century not named LeBron. Instead he traded it for an offing Randy Foye and Mike Miller rental.

You could have fired him after he botched all the 2010 and 2011 draft picks he did keep that weren't the #1 overall, including a top 5 pick.

You could have fired him after the idiotic sell out for Durant move when everyone with a functioning brain cell knew he wasn't such a colossal idiot that he'd jump to a team with zero chance of winning a title.

You could have fired him after losing out on Durant when the smart move was to lick your wounds, find some cheap fill ins that could bandaid the situation, and play for the future but instead, he threw mad cash like the rest of the NBA's cellar dwelling morons, at total non-entities on long term deals to appease angry fans. Meanwhile the smart teams held onto their cash for the future classes when the cap flattened out at fair market value and not flooded market valuations. Needless to say, neither he nor you (Ted) we're smart, indeed perhaps King Idiot, lord of all the idiots you survey considering who you gave that absurd contract too to salve your wounds.

So get it through your thick head Ted, THIS IS ALL YOUR EFFING FAULT. The Buck stops with you, even if your idiot GM is throwing it anywhere and everywhere other than where it belongs. You made the choice to keep this talentless dolt for decades past his sell by date, despite warning after warning of how inept he was in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and on and on and on, you heeded NOT ONE of the nearly infinite pile of screaming warning signs, instead doubling down on that fool.

The tax for that kind of idiocy is harsh, just be glad you have an owner even stupider than you running the redskins to deflect the attention away from how thoroughly you've botched the process of rebuilding this joke of a franchise. If not for Snyder, the torches would be headed toward the Cap One Center, instead of Redskins Park. Paying a repeater tax and a lux tax is the least of your problems. Fire the idiot and maybe the fans will reconsider the sour taste they in their mouths, until then, enjoy that bitter taste of tax penalties as it's far lighter of a penalty to pay then poor DC sports fans have had to pay for being born into DC sports fandom in the first place.

Listen, thats all well and good. I appreciate the emotional and heartfelt feelings towards this organization, and I feel the same way.

But again, I dont come on this board to promote transactions/paths forward that dont make business sense. I know this is all for fun, but I want to keep it as reality based as possible.

You, Dat, I, and most everyone else doesnt give a damn about Ted's money and repeating the tax, but you know who does....
Ted.... As does any GM that would work for him.

We need to keep that in mind

Yes, no doubt, which is why digging through which horrible trade will make us worst long term, and which will make us merely totally irrelevant seems a waste of time. At the end of the day, in discussing trades done purely to cut costs for Ted, what you're really doing is sifting through potential futures of irrelevancy, will we be a bottom 5 team going forward, or more a bottom 10 team? That's really what those trades are all about. I understand reality informs these discussions, but the one reality never entertained seems to be just how bad we'll be long term if such horrible trades are made for such b.s. reasons while EG continues to float merrily away on a GM for Life contract three decades in soon enough. That has to inform such discussions as well, one can't discuss horrible trades by degree and engage in any pretense that this team will contend for anything over the next half decade or more.

[Ruzious]

This is a solid post - and one that makes me feel better about Zards and the others on that side of the fence.

I think that that core moves us to a bottom 4 in the playoffs at best. You still have the Wall/Beal ball domination - and that just isn't going to change keeping this core together. The learning and habits are very much engrained in this group. GA and the Bucks are way out of reach of that group. Same with the Celts, Pacers and Sixers with their athleticism. Hopefully Toronto will explode this off-season.

But I can see if you believed that the core SHOULD be in the top 4 you would want to keep them together.

I disagree that the Pacers & Bucks are “way out of reach.” When I look at those teams’ rosters and compare it to the Zards, I believe the Zards have as much talent (if not more) as both the Pacers & Bucks.

Yes, Giannas is a transcendent talent, but we all know it takes more than one superstar to win big. Just ask Anthony Davis.

The Zards may have problems as it relates to coaching, chemistry, player selfishness, injuries, etc., but I think they have the talent to be a top 4-6 team in the East.

The Bucks, Raptors, 76ers, Celtics, and Pacers are out of their reach for at least this season. After reading Aldridge's excelent articles on the Wiz (and forgetting to copy the link), it makes me crazy... that their overwhelming goal this season is... to make the playoffs - even if it's with a terrible record. And they don't seem to care that if they reach that goal, they're almost certainly going to get wiped out. I could understand it if this was a developing team of youngsters that can benefit from the experience, but it itsn't. It's a team full of veterans that have tons of playoff experience. And a lot of these veterans won't be here next season. They should be working on getting value for them in trades. They should be accepting that a lottery pick would be more useful in the long run than an 8th seed in the playoffs.

[dckingsfan]

This is a solid post - and one that makes me feel better about Zards and the others on that side of the fence.

I think that that core moves us to a bottom 4 in the playoffs at best. You still have the Wall/Beal ball domination - and that just isn't going to change keeping this core together. The learning and habits are very much engrained in this group. GA and the Bucks are way out of reach of that group. Same with the Celts, Pacers and Sixers with their athleticism. Hopefully Toronto will explode this off-season.

But I can see if you believed that the core SHOULD be in the top 4 you would want to keep them together.

I disagree that the Pacers & Bucks are “way out of reach.” When I look at those teams’ rosters and compare it to the Zards, I believe the Zards have as much talent (if not more) as both the Pacers & Bucks.

Yes, Giannas is a transcendent talent, but we all know it takes more than one superstar to win big. Just ask Anthony Davis.

The Zards may have problems as it relates to coaching, chemistry, player selfishness, injuries, etc., but I think they have the talent to be a top 4-6 team in the East.

The Bucks, Raptors, 76ers, Celtics, and Pacers are out of their reach for at least this season. After reading Aldridge's excelent articles on the Wiz (and forgetting to copy the link), it makes me crazy... that their overwhelming goal this season is... to make the playoffs - even if it's with a terrible record. And they don't seem to care that if they reach that goal, they're almost certainly going to get wiped out. I could understand it if this was a developing team of youngsters that can benefit from the experience, but it itsn't. It's a team full of veterans that have tons of playoff experience. And a lot of these veterans won't be here next season. They should be working on getting value for them in trades. They should be accepting that a lottery pick would be more useful in the long run than an 8th seed in the playoffs.

Or even the 4th or 5th seed.

[trast66]

Yup...you have it mostly right, PIF. I see Wall, Beal, Porter, Sato, Bryant, Howard, Brown and Green forming the nucleus of a team that could be competitive with teams like Indy and Milwaukee. Need other pieces but those 8 guys represent a decent start, imo.

Take Howard out and that team should be competitive (5-8 seed in the east). The problem is that same team stinks with EG and/or Brooks still around. That team above I think is more "talented" (assuming health is not a talent) than the Spurs, Pacers, Clippers or even what the Rockets put on the floor last night. They certainly are not playing anywhere as well as those teams of course. It all goes back to the unknowable: Why does Ted keep this FO and coach around?

In youth travel sports the parents can overthrow a coach in a week, in college the boosters whenever they want. We seem to be dealing with an immovable object in the person of Ted.

[dckingsfan]

Yup...you have it mostly right, PIF. I see Wall, Beal, Porter, Sato, Bryant, Howard, Brown and Green forming the nucleus of a team that could be competitive with teams like Indy and Milwaukee. Need other pieces but those 8 guys represent a decent start, imo.

Take Howard out and that team should be competitive (5-8 seed in the east). The problem is that same team stinks with EG and/or Brooks still around. That team above I think is more "talented" (assuming health is not a talent) than the Spurs, Pacers, Clippers or even what the Rockets put on the floor last night. They certainly are not playing anywhere as well as those teams of course. It all goes back to the unknowable: Why does Ted keep this FO and coach around?

In youth travel sports the parents can overthrow a coach in a week, in college the boosters whenever they want. We seem to be dealing with an immovable object in the person of Ted.

You mean 6-8, right trast? Pretty sure you didn't mean to include Boston?

[trast66]

Yup...you have it mostly right, PIF. I see Wall, Beal, Porter, Sato, Bryant, Howard, Brown and Green forming the nucleus of a team that could be competitive with teams like Indy and Milwaukee. Need other pieces but those 8 guys represent a decent start, imo.

Take Howard out and that team should be competitive (5-8 seed in the east). The problem is that same team stinks with EG and/or Brooks still around. That team above I think is more "talented" (assuming health is not a talent) than the Spurs, Pacers, Clippers or even what the Rockets put on the floor last night. They certainly are not playing anywhere as well as those teams of course. It all goes back to the unknowable: Why does Ted keep this FO and coach around?

In youth travel sports the parents can overthrow a coach in a week, in college the boosters whenever they want. We seem to be dealing with an immovable object in the person of Ted.

You mean 6-8, right trast? Pretty sure you didn't mean to include Boston?

I was thinking next year if Leonard bails on the Raptors.

[DCZards]

I disagree that the Pacers & Bucks are “way out of reach.” When I look at those teams’ rosters and compare it to the Zards, I believe the Zards have as much talent (if not more) as both the Pacers & Bucks.

Yes, Giannas is a transcendent talent, but we all know it takes more than one superstar to win big. Just ask Anthony Davis.

The Zards may have problems as it relates to coaching, chemistry, player selfishness, injuries, etc., but I think they have the talent to be a top 4-6 team in the East.

The Bucks, Raptors, 76ers, Celtics, and Pacers are out of their reach for at least this season. After reading Aldridge's excelent articles on the Wiz (and forgetting to copy the link), it makes me crazy... that their overwhelming goal this season is... to make the playoffs - even if it's with a terrible record. And they don't seem to care that if they reach that goal, they're almost certainly going to get wiped out. I could understand it if this was a developing team of youngsters that can benefit from the experience, but it itsn't. It's a team full of veterans that have tons of playoff experience. And a lot of these veterans won't be here next season. They should be working on getting value for them in trades. They should be accepting that a lottery pick would be more useful in the long run than an 8th seed in the playoffs.

No doubt. The Zards are not going to overtake any of these teams this season. Didn't mean to suggest that. I was talking about next season and beyond when I talked about the Zards (with a core of Beal, Wall, Porter, Sato, Howard, Bryant, Brown & Green) having the talent to be competitive with the Pacers & Bucks.

[Induveca]

I disagree that the Pacers & Bucks are “way out of reach.” When I look at those teams’ rosters and compare it to the Zards, I believe the Zards have as much talent (if not more) as both the Pacers & Bucks.

Yes, Giannas is a transcendent talent, but we all know it takes more than one superstar to win big. Just ask Anthony Davis.

The Zards may have problems as it relates to coaching, chemistry, player selfishness, injuries, etc., but I think they have the talent to be a top 4-6 team in the East.

The Bucks, Raptors, 76ers, Celtics, and Pacers are out of their reach for at least this season. After reading Aldridge's excelent articles on the Wiz (and forgetting to copy the link), it makes me crazy... that their overwhelming goal this season is... to make the playoffs - even if it's with a terrible record. And they don't seem to care that if they reach that goal, they're almost certainly going to get wiped out. I could understand it if this was a developing team of youngsters that can benefit from the experience, but it itsn't. It's a team full of veterans that have tons of playoff experience. And a lot of these veterans won't be here next season. They should be working on getting value for them in trades. They should be accepting that a lottery pick would be more useful in the long run than an 8th seed in the playoffs.

No doubt. The Zards are not going to overtake any of these teams this season. Didn't mean to suggest that. I was talking about next season and beyond when I talked about the Zards (with a core of Beal, Wall, Porter, Sato, Howard, Bryant, Brown & Green) having the talent to be competitive with the Pacers & Bucks.

Take away Wall and Beal, and that’s an awful team.

And to make it worse, I’m no longer sold on the Wall/Beal vibe. Something is just off there.

[dckingsfan]

The Bucks, Raptors, 76ers, Celtics, and Pacers are out of their reach for at least this season. After reading Aldridge's excelent articles on the Wiz (and forgetting to copy the link), it makes me crazy... that their overwhelming goal this season is... to make the playoffs - even if it's with a terrible record. And they don't seem to care that if they reach that goal, they're almost certainly going to get wiped out. I could understand it if this was a developing team of youngsters that can benefit from the experience, but it itsn't. It's a team full of veterans that have tons of playoff experience. And a lot of these veterans won't be here next season. They should be working on getting value for them in trades. They should be accepting that a lottery pick would be more useful in the long run than an 8th seed in the playoffs.

No doubt. The Zards are not going to overtake any of these teams this season. Didn't mean to suggest that. I was talking about next season and beyond when I talked about the Zards (with a core of Beal, Wall, Porter, Sato, Howard, Bryant, Brown & Green) having the talent to be competitive with the Pacers & Bucks.

Take away Wall and Beal, and that’s an awful team.

And to make it worse, I’m no longer sold on the Wall/Beal vibe. Something is just off there.

You don't have to take any of them away and your ceiling is the 5th seed...

And ditto to Wall/Beal.

[DCZards]

No doubt. The Zards are not going to overtake any of these teams this season. Didn't mean to suggest that. I was talking about next season and beyond when I talked about the Zards (with a core of Beal, Wall, Porter, Sato, Howard, Bryant, Brown & Green) having the talent to be competitive with the Pacers & Bucks.

Take away Wall and Beal, and that’s an awful team.

And to make it worse, I’m no longer sold on the Wall/Beal vibe. Something is just off there.

Take away Giannis and Middleton and how good are the Bucks? Take away Oladipo and Turner and how good are the Pacers? Take away Westbrook and George and how good is OKC?

Take away most teams two best players and they are not going to be very good.

[Induveca]

No doubt. The Zards are not going to overtake any of these teams this season. Didn't mean to suggest that. I was talking about next season and beyond when I talked about the Zards (with a core of Beal, Wall, Porter, Sato, Howard, Bryant, Brown & Green) having the talent to be competitive with the Pacers & Bucks.

Take away Wall and Beal, and that’s an awful team.

And to make it worse, I’m no longer sold on the Wall/Beal vibe. Something is just off there.

Take away Giannis and Middleton and how good are the Bucks? Take away Oladipo and Turner and how good are the Pacers? Take away Westbrook and George and how good is OKC?

Take away most teams two best players and they are not going to be very good.

We don’t have any chemistry, we seem to have far more *without* Wall and Beal. Even when at full strength as DCK pointed out were a max 5th seed.

I’m enjoying watching Satoransky and Bryant, at least I can see progress and some joy playing the game. Wall and Beal constantly look miserable.

[BigA]

The Bucks, Raptors, 76ers, Celtics, and Pacers are out of their reach for at least this season. After reading Aldridge's excelent articles on the Wiz (and forgetting to copy the link), it makes me crazy... that their overwhelming goal this season is... to make the playoffs - even if it's with a terrible record. And they don't seem to care that if they reach that goal, they're almost certainly going to get wiped out. I could understand it if this was a developing team of youngsters that can benefit from the experience, but it itsn't. It's a team full of veterans that have tons of playoff experience. And a lot of these veterans won't be here next season. They should be working on getting value for them in trades. They should be accepting that a lottery pick would be more useful in the long run than an 8th seed in the playoffs.

Ted's goal is to "compete for the playoffs."

[King Ken]

What do you guys think about Beal for Siakam, O.G. and two 1sts from Toronto?

[Shoe]

What do you guys think about Beal for Siakam, O.G. and two 1sts from Toronto?

IMO it would be a big mistake to trade Beal. He has value to the franchise beyond just being an all-star; he's a professional and good with the media, he's likeable, durable. Everything with the Wizards could change on a dime with their 2019 pick if they get a Luka Doncic- type immediate impact player, who I assume would be Zion this year.

Other than that
It fits the rumored asking price of two young players and two 1sts. Siakam is great, but if Otto got the max I assume Siakam will too, or something close to it. OG - I don't know how much better he is than Troy Brown in the future. Other people here will have better insight on Beal trades. I wouldn't do it though.

[payitforward]

Yup...you have it mostly right, PIF. I see Wall, Beal, Porter, Sato, Bryant, Howard, Brown and Green forming the nucleus of a team that could be competitive with teams like Indy and Milwaukee. Need other pieces but those 8 guys represent a decent start, imo.

Fair enough. Now, Wall, Beal, Porter, Howard, Brown & Green would cost $103.5m next year (assuming Green at vet minimum). Add $5m for the stretched Mahinmi contract & about the same for a R1 pick (assuming #6), & that's $113.5m for 7 players.

Lets assume Sato & Bryant are back for an estimated total of $10m. That takes us to $123.5m & 9 players. At that point, we probably have something like $12m head room under the luxury tax, & we need 5 more players. If we retain Dekker @$4m it becomes $8m & 4 spots to fill. Tight but possible.

That would give us a team not very different from the one that right now projects to have a 31 or 32 win season. Zards claims that team would be competitive with Milwaukee -- a team that has won 27 games in less than half a season. & with the Pacers who have won 26 games in less than half a season.

I find it difficult to believe that anything but a devoted fan could believe that to be true. Let alone that we'd be competitive with Philly. Or Boston. Or Toronto. Or, for that matter, with the Brooklyn Nets.

Then there's the "Ernie" position -- in this case taken by dangermouse:

In this debate I think it must be noted that we have suffered injuries to key players (Wall, Otto and, yes, Dwight Howard). ...We have also suffered Ian Mahinmi getting minutes because of Dwight. It wasn't until very recently that Bryant got any minutes at all, and absolutely exploded into Clint Capela-lite. We also didn't have Ariza and Dekker.... Lastly, we had Morris as our starting PF.

Saying that next season we'll be the same team that started this season is a falsehood for the above reasons.

This rendition of our season may be a big part of why Zards takes the position he takes.

Of course, we weren't good before those injuries, were we? That is, we were 12-18 after 30 games.

& we haven't gotten better since acquiring Ariza. Or Dekker. Or since Thomas Bryant started getting regular minutes. Or since Morris was moved to the bench.

Nor has there even been any cherry-picked 12 game stretch in which we were better than 6-6.

But what Dangermouse is the most right about is that Ernie is telling Ted that this mess is all because of injuries. All because of bad luck.

No, it's because of Ernie Grunfeld's work as a GM. Period.

[BigA]

But what Dangermouse is the most right about is that Ernie is telling Ted that this mess is all because of injuries. All because of bad luck.

No, it's because of Ernie Grunfeld's work as a GM. Period.

This back and forth the last couple pages has been interesting. If people here are making the case that this year's disappointing performance is mainly due to injuries and bad luck, then Ernie is certainly making the same case to Ted.

And there's at least some possibility that Ted is buying it. Despite his preseason statements about "no excuses" and expecting 50 wins, it would be difficult for him to accept the argument that the roster just isn't talented enough and/or the coaching/culture to get the most out of that talent just isn't there. It would require Ted to change course in a way that would constitute an admission that he was wrong about what he's been smugly selling us for years. Even if he didn't say so explicitly.

So, let's say you agree that the problem this year has been injuries and luck. You expect that (basically) the same Wizards roster will win around 50 games and be better than the Pacers and Bucks if they come healthy next year. Whether you're the owner or just us fans. Then you should probably agree that Ernie's been doing a pretty good job overall, and that major roster moves or front office changes aren't called for. The Wizards just need better health and luck.

What results or evidence would make you change your mind? That's probably too broad and rhetorical a question for the trade thread, but this discussion above clarified for me that the injuries/luck assessment, implying a status quo approach, may still be plausible enough to Ted that it's the likely outcome for the time being. He'll double down again on Ernie, Wall, Brooks, etc.