Political Roundtable Part XXVI

[dckingsfan]

@Dirt & @Pointgod - don't disagree with anything you have said. I think there is a way forward - I just don't know the messaging to do that at this time. I do know - our current messaging sucks and isn't helping.

[Kanyewest]

The political costs were possibly Brexit, long-term move away from her party in Germany and enabling the move to the right in other European countries. Pretty steep.

As for the US - she shouldn't care. But it is a learning opportunity on how not to do this.

I'm not sure turning away Syrian refugees in Germany would have stalled the rise of the right in Britain at least based on the Europeans that I know. I think you are right that there is a rise in the right in Europe but I would not attribute that simply to the refugee issue but also economic reasons (loss of jobs/wages/etc) and people wanting to find someone else to blame. The US barely had any refugees and they managed to elect Donald Trump. Probably legal immigration was enough to get the far right in Europe riled up.

She didn't just take on Syrian refugees, she pledged to take in a million of them. And with open borders in the Europe - what did that mean long-term? Brexit passed by the slimmest of margins.

What is interesting is that the unintended consequences of our actions (Bush's ill-advised War in Iraq and Obama ignoring Syria) were her eventual undoing and intimately has move Europe to the right.

Maybe you are right. Although the alternative of Germany not taking in Refugees would mean that some country like the UK or within the EU would have had to have had the burden. Now I do think that Merkel's other decisions such as not allowing the UK to restrict immigration may have ultimately been the downturn.

That being said, let's not forget to give credit to the right wing parties themselves as well as the poorly informed voters who sometimes voted against their own interest. I would be curious if Britain will go through another referendum if they cannot pull off a clean Brexit.

Anyways, I guess under the scenario where no one takes the Syrian Refugees and Brexit doesn't happen, although I suppose the 400,000 Refugees or so approve of the current situation(or probably some intervention within Syria by the US although I wonder which is less costly when including Brexit in the calculation).

[TGW]

Rachel Maddie has officially lost her mind tonight. How’s shes implying that trump changed the presidential seal to integrate the hammer and sickle.

Anyone who watches that russiagate grifter other than to get a good laugh needs to get their head examined.

[Kanyewest]

Rachel Maddie has officially lost her mind tonight. How’s shes implying that trump changed the presidential seal to integrate the hammer and sickle.

Anyone who watches that russiagate grifter other than to get a good laugh needs to get their head examined.

It looks like Maddow said that the students put the picture unknowingly and that Trump's team failed to screen the presentation. Although I still wouldn't rule out a hack.

[Pointgod]

Rachel Maddie has officially lost her mind tonight. How’s shes implying that trump changed the presidential seal to integrate the hammer and sickle.

Anyone who watches that russiagate grifter other than to get a good laugh needs to get their head examined.

It looks like Maddow said that the students put the picture unknowingly and that Trump's team failed to screen the presentation. Although I still wouldn't rule out a hack.

I actually watched the segment and Maddow made it clear that turning points group got trolled by an anti Trump designer. Either TGW didn’t bother to watch the segment and is going off someone else’s lies or he’s trolling and purposely spreading misinformation. Either way not a good look.

[dobrojim]

Rachel Maddie has officially lost her mind tonight. How’s shes implying that trump changed the presidential seal to integrate the hammer and sickle.

Anyone who watches that russiagate grifter other than to get a good laugh needs to get their head examined.

I happened to see that segment (which opened her show last night).
What you state is definitely NOT what she said or implied.

How TF did you come up with that?

[I_Like_Dirt]

@Dirt & @Pointgod - don't disagree with anything you have said. I think there is a way forward - I just don't know the messaging to do that at this time. I do know - our current messaging sucks and isn't helping.

I guess my point is that there isn't actually a "right" answer and looking for a "right" message is a dangerous game.

I will suggest, though, that it isn't necessarily clear cut that the current approach of the Dems is necessarily bad. There is just so much going on right now that it's really hard to break things apart. I kind of get the impression that there is a certain attempt here to try to suck out the emotion from Trump's supporters a bit. I know the argument is that they will just believe whatever Fox News tells them to believe but it's tough to continue believing things when the headlines continue on as the same thing time and again and nothing really changes. It's hard to carry on through emotional endeavors when things grind to a halt in paralyzing bureaucracy and that's sort of what I see being attempted here. I don't necessarily see it as wrong.

What is absolutely needed, though, is someone who can galvanize the party and a commitment from everyone involved not to fragment over what amount to minor squabbles when contrasted with the alternative. That was Obama's biggest strength. I don't see any spare Obama's lying around right now so the people are going to have to pick up some of that slack and so far they've largely failed at it.

[dckingsfan]

Latest Polls:

Code: Select all

             SC   OH   IA   NH   CA   TX
Biden        39   31   24   27   24   27
Harris       12   14   16   12   23   12
Sanders      10   14   19   20   16   12
Warren        9   13   17   18   19   16
Buttigieg     5    6    7    7    6    4

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/democratic_nomination_polls/

[I_Like_Dirt]

Latest Polls:

Code: Select all

             SC   OH   IA   NH   CA   TX
Biden        39   31   24   27   24   27
Harris       12   14   16   12   23   12
Sanders      10   14   19   20   16   12
Warren        9   13   17   18   19   16
Buttigieg     5    6    7    7    6    4

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/democratic_nomination_polls/

I don't know that there's a right choice but Harris is a better choice than Biden for anyone who swings more centrist and Warren is a better choice than Sanders for anyone pushing that direction. And if that isn't clear, we can just have Harris and Biden debate each other every week until the voting gets underway and same goes for Bernie and Warren. It's good to see them starting to climb a bit. I'm also not against Buttgieg but he just doesn't seem realistic and I don't have a firm sense of who he is just yet - he might be the best or the worst of the group or anything in between, though he seems alright based on what he says for the most part. Biden seems like a great way to limit the motivation of voters the Democrats really need by saying they don't really care, they're going with who they're most comfortable with anyway and Trump should be enough motivation.

[Pointgod]

@Dirt & @Pointgod - don't disagree with anything you have said. I think there is a way forward - I just don't know the messaging to do that at this time. I do know - our current messaging sucks and isn't helping.

To answer this question there’s really no counter to an emotional, non sensical argument. Which is what the majority of arguments against immigration are. It’s not like the Democrats can adopt the Republican’s anti immigration talking points, but I wonder if a more effective argument would be to start talking about merit based immigration.

[TGW]

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[dckingsfan]

@Dirt & @Pointgod - don't disagree with anything you have said. I think there is a way forward - I just don't know the messaging to do that at this time. I do know - our current messaging sucks and isn't helping.

To answer this question there’s really no counter to an emotional, non sensical argument. Which is what the majority of arguments against immigration are. It’s not like the Democrats can adopt the Republican’s anti immigration talking points, but I wonder if a more effective argument would be to start talking about merit based immigration.

Sure there is - a well formed policy with numbers that back it up. The problem we have - there is no well formed policy to point to...

As to merit based immigration - preach brother. That would totally through the Rs off their emotional stool.

[dckingsfan]

@Dirt & @Pointgod - don't disagree with anything you have said. I think there is a way forward - I just don't know the messaging to do that at this time. I do know - our current messaging sucks and isn't helping.

I guess my point is that there isn't actually a "right" answer and looking for a "right" message is a dangerous game.

Well, having no well formed policy hasn't exactly worked for us either

[I_Like_Dirt]

Well, having no well formed policy hasn't exactly worked for us either

Don't get me wrong, I'm all for a rational rethink of immigration policy. The policy of letting everyone in is an emotional one, too, though not everyone is actually being let in. And it's a weird kind of emotional because you wind with places like San Francisco where people protest building walls on the border but then build the biggest wall they possibly can around their neighborhoods. There is more than one emotional attack here, though there is also a certain greed attack as well with a purely numbers game and keeping out the poor, etc.

In all honest, I think a lot of people are talking about merit-based immigration but it gets drowned out by the emotionally charged nature of the discussion and any disagreements, however minor or irrelevant, at all wind up magnified and derail any potentially earnest discussion before it can begin.

That said, I still think this is a case where there isn't the kind of issue that people are making it out to be, but if you assume that the goal is to curb immigration, the solution isn't what people immediately assume it will be. It isn't unlike with crime rates which were skyrocketing and prompted a bunch of tough on crime laws and the launch of the industrial prison system only to realize that crime rates could be brought back down to historical levels simply by eliminating leaded gasoline. I've said it before, but the larger issue about immigration is about supporting other regional economies. Destabilizing areas for economic reasons/advantages invariably creates an increased likelihood and creates a cost that is offloaded onto the public sector but that doesn't make it onto the financial ledger. Of course, just as very few people in favor of banning abortion want to support would-be mothers/families, very few people who want to limit migration are interested in supporting poorer countries through greater economic integration.

Another catch is that skin color is driving a lot of this and that isn't something that any policy is going to be able to stop because birth rates are absolutely gutted.

[pancakes3]

open borders isn't an emotional decision. it's an economic one. free flow of human capital and all that.

https://reason.com/2019/07/25/the-nationalist-right-is-wrong-more-immigration-doesnt-reduce-wages/?fbclid=IwAR21zq7RaDm5Byhw-uQBqM3ytNPymELmJ6HGJD76uXoFCzJgAxdEIpq1fL4

[dckingsfan]

open borders isn't an emotional decision. it's an economic one. free flow of human capital and all that.

https://reason.com/2019/07/25/the-nationalist-right-is-wrong-more-immigration-doesnt-reduce-wages/?fbclid=IwAR21zq7RaDm5Byhw-uQBqM3ytNPymELmJ6HGJD76uXoFCzJgAxdEIpq1fL4

Yep - should be part of the platform. We always come back to the we don't have a well formed platform - but damn those other guys.

[FAH1223]

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[I_Like_Dirt]

open borders isn't an emotional decision. it's an economic one. free flow of human capital and all that.

https://reason.com/2019/07/25/the-nationalist-right-is-wrong-more-immigration-doesnt-reduce-wages/?fbclid=IwAR21zq7RaDm5Byhw-uQBqM3ytNPymELmJ6HGJD76uXoFCzJgAxdEIpq1fL4

To be fair, that isn't an economic argument you just cited. It's an argument that immigrants aren't hurting wages, not something that suggests they're helping them. To make a really strong economic argument, you have to be able to explain how it actually helps them because they have loads of anecdotal arguments for why it hurts them beyond simple economics regardless of whether they're true or not.

And beyond that, even when you can demonstrate that it actually does help them, the evidence totally doesn't matter. The amount of people I've talked to in small towns, while definitely not scientific, has more than convinced me that this isn't really about economics and it's just a great shield. It's fear and nobody wants to admit they're afraid - mixed with a dose of uncomfortableness, and uncomfortableness is the bane of developed nations. You can have small towns where immigrants are the only reason that town is still alive. All the kids leave as soon as they're done school and then stay in larger urban centers. The town is essentially dead except for large groups of immigrants who come in, support businesses, take over failing businesses and keep the town alive. You can explain that to them and they will essentially admit that immigrants have saved the town but still won't change their mind or their rhetoric.

[daoneandonly]

Well, having no well formed policy hasn't exactly worked for us either

Don't get me wrong, I'm all for a rational rethink of immigration policy. The policy of letting everyone in is an emotional one, too, though not everyone is actually being let in. And it's a weird kind of emotional because you wind with places like San Francisco where people protest building walls on the border but then build the biggest wall they possibly can around their neighborhoods. There is more than one emotional attack here, though there is also a certain greed attack as well with a purely numbers game and keeping out the poor, etc.

In all honest, I think a lot of people are talking about merit-based immigration but it gets drowned out by the emotionally charged nature of the discussion and any disagreements, however minor or irrelevant, at all wind up magnified and derail any potentially earnest discussion before it can begin.

That said, I still think this is a case where there isn't the kind of issue that people are making it out to be, but if you assume that the goal is to curb immigration, the solution isn't what people immediately assume it will be. It isn't unlike with crime rates which were skyrocketing and prompted a bunch of tough on crime laws and the launch of the industrial prison system only to realize that crime rates could be brought back down to historical levels simply by eliminating leaded gasoline. I've said it before, but the larger issue about immigration is about supporting other regional economies. Destabilizing areas for economic reasons/advantages invariably creates an increased likelihood and creates a cost that is offloaded onto the public sector but that doesn't make it onto the financial ledger. Of course, just as very few people in favor of banning abortion want to support would-be mothers/families, very few people who want to limit migration are interested in supporting poorer countries through greater economic integration.
Another catch is that skin color is driving a lot of this and that isn't something that any policy is going to be able to stop because birth rates are absolutely gutted.

You just can't have a discussion about any political subject without having to add your 2 cents on why abortion is great and why the would be mothers who have them are victims. They are supported, there are programs all over, organizations that help, hell a ridiculous tax system that favors lower brackets, and punishes higher ones. What about people who make a great living and amount of money who have abortions, clearly not needing any type of assistance or support, what do you say about them?

[TGW]

Holy sheit.

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