Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing

[verbal8]

A good draft, but it was undone in the first couple days of FA.

Maybe Maynor is the next Webster. However giving him a player option would negate the possibility of turning his contract into an asset. The 2 scenarios are getting a guy for one season cheap and then only having the MLE to retain him or paying 4 million for a guy who isn't very good.

This is a bad year to use the BAE for the Wizards because they aren't going to getting a bargain on it. Apparently they had to give Maynor an option to take it. Assume the Wizards make the play-offs. Maybe it would be nice to make add a cheap vet big for a real play-off run, it would be really nice to have the BAE available.

Giving Webster the full MLE and 3+ years means he is seen as a core piece. If that is the case why draft the SF of the future. Why not draft Zeller? The roster balance would be a lot better, and Ariza would be useful rotation player rather than basically $7 million down the drain. I agree with Porter as the pick, but I see him as the pick and spending $12 million on back-up SFs should be mutually exclusive.

And don't get me started on what could have been done with cap space rather than Ariza's and Okafor's contracts on the books....

I have been fairly critical of eg, but I have to give him credit for a strong draft. Being able to move up significantly with the 54th pick was a good move.

Glen rice was a low risk high reward move. Porter was a solid pick, Bennett and oladipo really were the strongest alternatives and off the board.

[closg00]

A good draft, but it was undone in the first couple days of FA.

Maybe Maynor is the next Webster. However giving him a player option would negate the possibility of turning his contract into an asset. The 2 scenarios are getting a guy for one season cheap and then only having the MLE to retain him or paying 4 million for a guy who isn't very good.

This is a bad year to use the BAE for the Wizards because they aren't going to getting a bargain on it. Apparently they had to give Maynor an option to take it. Assume the Wizards make the play-offs. Maybe it would be nice to make add a cheap vet big for a real play-off run, it would be really nice to have the BAE available.

Giving Webster the full MLE and 3+ years means he is seen as a core piece. If that is the case why draft the SF of the future. Why not draft Zeller? The roster balance would be a lot better, and Ariza would be useful rotation player rather than basically $7 million down the drain. I agree with Porter as the pick, but I see him as the pick and spending $12 million on back-up SFs should be mutually exclusive.

And don't get me started on what could have been done with cap space rather than Ariza's and Okafor's contracts on the books....

I have been fairly critical of eg, but I have to give him credit for a strong draft. Being able to move up significantly with the 54th pick was a good move.

Glen rice was a low risk high reward move. Porter was a solid pick, Bennett and oladipo really were the strongest alternatives and off the board.

This was my thinking as-well if they REALLY didn't want to take Noel. Zeller, Wolters and Webster would have been fine with me.(Not hating on Porter)

[hands11]

I doubt we win 48. I think our best case scenario is a ceiling of like 45 wins, similar to that 04-05 team. 48 is too close to 50 and this team is not a 50 win team.

keep in mind that teams will be fighting to tank. We might a win a bunch of games because of tanking issues

That would provide a false reading to some extent now wouldn't it.

As for how do they let EG walk after a over .500 playoff season, that is the debate now isn't it.

I think it comes down to other issues more then his final record.. Keeping him the last two years while Ted was just getting started as the majority owner made some sense. High draft picks like that got were easier picks to not bust, and we still busted on one of them. At least it looks that way after 2 years. A Ves rebound would be huge for EG. Thats actually who we picked up when we first signed him. The Wiz were are rock bottom back then and he was a good pick up considered what the team was able to attract. But it was a failed model from the start because Abe already picked the HC and that was the coach EG had to deal with for a good while. You can't have a GM and HC on different pages.

I think EGs under Abe was a bad mix. Abe always wanted the quick band aid fix, he picked terrible coaches and fell in love with the wrong players. So some of what happened under Abe got unfairly labeled onto EG. Well if EG ends things with a winning team that is rebuilt under Ted and him, he gets to go out on a high note. Maybe he gets the rep as a decent low to mid priced EG that can help you blow it up and rebuild.

But you have to ignore that final years record and evaluate for the future. Who is out there ? The team should be a much better position will to attract better talent at GM now.

The level of talent it takes to rebuild a team with the #1, #6, #3, #3 is a different level then what it takes to get it to the next level when all you have are mid firsts and 2nds, trades and FA acquisitions. I think thats about where you start reaching EGs limits and you need the best you can find out there.

Question then is, can EG get it done with Ted on one side and Randy on the other vs Abe on one side and EFJ on the other. I like the first team better. Plus it's not just Randy, they brought in that SA coach as an assistant.

And keep in mind, if not for Abe and EFJ, we would have had Tibbs here. EG set that up but was over ridden.

Its the next moves they make that will really tell how good Ted/EG/Randy are as a front office. Right now all they did was a BAE for Maynor which was not complicated. Price had expired. And they resigned Webster for the full MLE. Not knowing what either offers might have been out there for Webster moving forward and knowing how much of a core locker room piece he was, that was also a GM 101 type of move.

Designing the final team with the right pieces, thats where the big GM talent comes in. Do you have the balls to move an Otto is that makes sense down the road ? That kind of thing. This is where you want to best out there to be running the show.

We have never seen this front office team operate in that space. So we don't know if they can do it or not.

[hands11]

A good draft, but it was undone in the first couple days of FA.

Maybe Maynor is the next Webster. However giving him a player option would negate the possibility of turning his contract into an asset. The 2 scenarios are getting a guy for one season cheap and then only having the MLE to retain him or paying 4 million for a guy who isn't very good.

This is a bad year to use the BAE for the Wizards because they aren't going to getting a bargain on it. Apparently they had to give Maynor an option to take it. Assume the Wizards make the play-offs. Maybe it would be nice to make add a cheap vet big for a real play-off run, it would be really nice to have the BAE available.

Giving Webster the full MLE and 3+ years means he is seen as a core piece. If that is the case why draft the SF of the future. Why not draft Zeller? The roster balance would be a lot better, and Ariza would be useful rotation player rather than basically $7 million down the drain. I agree with Porter as the pick, but I see him as the pick and spending $12 million on back-up SFs should be mutually exclusive.

And don't get me started on what could have been done with cap space rather than Ariza's and Okafor's contracts on the books....

I have been fairly critical of eg, but I have to give him credit for a strong draft. Being able to move up significantly with the 54th pick was a good move.

Glen rice was a low risk high reward move. Porter was a solid pick, Bennett and oladipo really were the strongest alternatives and off the board.

This was my thinking as-well if they REALLY didn't want to take Noel. Zeller, Wolters and Webster would have been fine with me.(Not hating on Porter)

If they really liked Porter and they liked how Trevor A's defense and shooting range helped the team, then Porter was the right longer term pick. Given they know Trevor A wants to leave. He replaces Trevor A. Only he is younger. Hopefully healthier. Hopefully a better outside shooter and passer. And he is a better personality, age, etc to be a part of a long term grouping with Wall and Beal.

The view would be, if Trevor A can't get traded, fine, he expires next year. If he can, great, we cleaned that up. But either way, he is getting replaced by Otto and he is gone next year.

For where they are in the rebuild, it makes some sense. They may have some overlap this year, but it will get cleaned up soon enough.

vs Zeller who could be that piece a PF, which is still a longer term open question for the team. It could have worked well with Zeller and if he comes out playing well his first year, there will be a lot of gripping that we didn't pick him.

I think it came down to the marginal decision between two good players. One replaces a player you know is leaving. The other kills any hopes of your #6 pick regaining any value. So you go with Otto instead and cross your fingers.

I actually think Otto and Zeller are going to show a very similar skill set.

Touch call. Zeller may well have been the smarter pick. He is the more round PF prospect they are missing. SF was going to be covered by Webster and Trevor A anyway. You had another year to find a back up.

[Rafael122]

He signed the guys he needed to sign, all the while still maintaining cap flexibility for next offseason. Of course he can screw that up if he offers Okafor an extension, but one would think this front office has the foresight to think long term and see that they've got the opportunity to add a major piece next year, and the year after that.

My question is, if the Wizards make he playoffs this year, will Ernie get credit for constructing a solid playoff team, or will he not get credit because it seems as though half the league is going to tank?

[Knighthonor]

I still don't understand why he doesn't go out to get some talented young bigs. KS is the best young big he has go since the Gil era ended. Jan never showed skill, and was just a bad pick so he doesn't count.

[MDStar]

He signed the guys he needed to sign, all the while still maintaining cap flexibility for next offseason. Of course he can screw that up if he offers Okafor an extension, but one would think this front office has the foresight to think long term and see that they've got the opportunity to add a major piece next year, and the year after that.

My question is, if the Wizards make he playoffs this year, will Ernie get credit for constructing a solid playoff team, or will he not get credit because it seems as though half the league is going to tank?

At this point, EG can do nothing right. The way people are talking is like they would prefer 1 year minimum deals across our entire bench. Yes, Martell and Otto play the same position... but so what? Webster got a 5 million a year deal, not 14 million. If anything he starts until Otto is ready and then becomes a very good six man.

This infatuation about drafting Zeller, Noel or whoever else, doesn't make much sense. I believe we took the BPA, which is what 90% of the people on this board were begging him to do. If i remember correctly, the only positions that were supposed to be taken account were those of Wall and Beal. However, now that we resigned Webster, we should have taken him into account as well. By this train of thought, we shouldn't have drafter Zeller either because we have Nene and he's on the books for the next 3 years, which means the organization views him as future piece. Give me a break with all this.

[Dat2U]

He signed the guys he needed to sign, all the while still maintaining cap flexibility for next offseason. Of course he can screw that up if he offers Okafor an extension, but one would think this front office has the foresight to think long term and see that they've got the opportunity to add a major piece next year, and the year after that.

My question is, if the Wizards make he playoffs this year, will Ernie get credit for constructing a solid playoff team, or will he not get credit because it seems as though half the league is going to tank?

At this point, EG can do nothing right. The way people are talking is like they would prefer 1 year minimum deals across our entire bench. Yes, Martell and Otto play the same position... but so what? Webster got a 5 million a year deal, not 14 million. If anything he starts until Otto is ready and then becomes a very good six man.

This infatuation about drafting Zeller, Noel or whoever else, doesn't make much sense. I believe we took the BPA, which is what 90% of the people on this board were begging him to do. If i remember correctly, the only positions that were supposed to be taken account were those of Wall and Beal. However, now that we resigned Webster, we should have taken him into account as well. By this train of thought, we shouldn't have drafter Zeller either because we have Nene and he's on the books for the next 3 years, which means the organization views him as future piece. Give me a break with all this.

Huh? Sounds like your really struggling hard at putting together a sound strawman argument, lol.

[closg00]

I doubt we win 48. I think our best case scenario is a ceiling of like 45 wins, similar to that 04-05 team. 48 is too close to 50 and this team is not a 50 win team.

keep in mind that teams will be fighting to tank. We might a win a bunch of games because of tanking issues

True, the tank-battle will be epic. There will be no excuse for not making the playoffs, no injury excuses either.

Greg (Montana)


You went on a little mini talk on twitter yesterday about more GMs tanking in 2014. Can you elaborate alittle more on that and whom you believe will?

Chad Ford (1:27 PM)


Here's what I said last night on Twitter: I think we may all be UNDERESTIMATING number of teams considering tanking this year. Been flooded with calls from GMs re 2014 draft class. Interest in 2014 draft class is unprecedented. We're going to have a lot of REALLY bad teams this year. We know Suns, Bobcats, Sixers, Celtics & Magic will be REALLY bad. Sources say add Hawks to list. If they don't get DH12, likely to tank (rebuild!). The Raptors also look like they're heading that direction. The Bucks (unintentionally) could be heading that way. I think it's possible the Blazers (if they trade LaMarcus Aldridge) and the Jazz (if they don't resign Al Jefferson or Paul Milsap or another veteran to replace them) are also writing off the playoffs this year in an effort to score another high pick.

[closg00]

Kevin (DC)


Do the Wizards make the playoffs? If not, how close do they get?

Chad Ford (1:53 PM)


If they stay healthy? Probably a 6th seed in the East next year.

Double-celebration, the 6th seed and contract renewal for another decade as Wizard GM.

[FAH1223]

Grunfeld will never be let go.

The stars have aligned for this team to be in the postseason with many teams in the East esp tanking.

I'm so sad. I want to cry. Seriously. It's not fair.

[LyricalRico]

Wow, a team that almost had the worst record in the league at the end of the lockout season is now projected to be a 6th seed only 2 seasons later mostly due to a core of young perimeter talent that hasn't peaked yet...and people here are depressed about that?

[montestewart]

Wow, a team that almost had the worst record in the league at the end of the lockout season is now projected to be a 6th seed only 2 seasons later mostly due to a core of young perimeter talent that hasn't peaked yet...and people here are depressed about that?

I saw yours as the most recent post and got all excited.

"LyricalRico's joined the countdown!"

Another day, eh?

[Dat2U]

He signed the guys he needed to sign, all the while still maintaining cap flexibility for next offseason. Of course he can screw that up if he offers Okafor an extension, but one would think this front office has the foresight to think long term and see that they've got the opportunity to add a major piece next year, and the year after that.

My question is, if the Wizards make he playoffs this year, will Ernie get credit for constructing a solid playoff team, or will he not get credit because it seems as though half the league is going to tank?

Trust, that Okafor extension is coming. This front office is driven by fear of the unknown. That's what spawned the Okafor/Ariza deal in the first place. They want certainty. Porter was certainty. Webster & Maynor getting paid on the first day of free agency is certainty. Even a minimum salaried guy who isn't any good could have just gotten an invite to camp gets a guaranteed deal (Temple). Free agency is the epitome of uncertainty. My guess is as long as EG remains GM of the Wizards, free agency simply isn't going to be an option.

[tontoz]

It amazes me how low the standards are for EG. They haven't won over 30 games since '08 and haven't had a 50 win season since he took over.

Houston had a 50+ win team, turned it over completely in a couple of years, had a winning season this past year and still have the capspace to sign a max free agent.

Meanwhile the Wizards are coming off a 29 win season and are bumping up against the luxury tax.

[Deeptu McPullup]

Free agency is the epitome of uncertainty. My guess is as long as EG remains GM of the Wizards, free agency simply isn't going to be an option.

Going back to that discussion from another thread - why don't the Wizards take a free agent swing? - one of the problems with free agency is that the pattern is you target the top guy and then usually end up signing the backup plan. It seems once the message has been put out to the fans that "we're gonna get someone!", it becomes an inescapable spiral towards spending the money on some sort of a recognizable name.

Happens time and again with the backup plan almost always hurting you. It's interesting to see that the Hawks will supposedly tank if they don't get Dwight Howard (they signed Korver but are well under the salary floor, so I'm not sure what to make of it). That'll be a pretty rare show of discipline if it happens.

Part of the problem for teams might just be that you have to wait until the free agent markets shakes itself out with other options evaporating just based on the timing.

One thing I'm sure of is that I want nothing to do with next year's second tier free agent fallback targets outside of just a couple of younger bigs. Even a lot of the first tier name guys look like "bad contract by year 3" candidates given the minutes logged and the kind of cash they're eligible to receive.

[nate33]

One thing I'm sure of is that I want nothing to do with next year's second tier free agent fallback targets outside of just a couple of younger bigs. Even a lot of the first tier name guys look like "bad contract by year 3" candidates given the minutes logged and the kind of cash they're eligible to receive.

Agreed. I think we will look to make a play for Cousins or Bosh, or maybe some kind of trade for Horford or Aldridge, but chances are, none of that will pan out. Our fall back will be to resign Okafor to a 2-year deal and try again in 2016 when Nene comes off the books.

[mhd]

You know why EG is a horrible GM?

He WANTED to trade Ariza for Butler last year. Ariza is better at everything than Caron is.

[Silvie Lysandra]

EG is going to pretty much back into a perennial 50-55 win team, and we have an outside chance of winning a title once LeBron leaves his peak and the Heatles are eventually broken up. It annoys me, seeing I've wanted this guy gone since 2007 or so because he sucks at his job. But fact is, we hit on our high lottery picks. Wall could be an MVP-level player as early as next year, Beal projects to be an All-Star if not a superstar, Porter will at worst be a high quality role player, we're loaded with veteran depth, and most of the East is tanking for Wiggins. This is assuming Ves, Singleton continue to be busts and KS continues to underperform - if Singleton becomes Baby Ariza (Ariza was pretty bad his first 2 years don't forget), Ves becomes Birdman, and KS becomes Brandon Bass with more defense, then all bets are off. Not that those are likely occurrences but it could theoretically happen. And in 2014, we could add a Bosh, Monroe or Cousins.

Let's say in 2 years Wall's peak is somewhere close to current (not peak) CP3, which is a 25-27 PER player with top-flight defense, Beal peaks as something similar to Ray Allen, Porter is the Middle East oil sheik's Tayshaun Prince, and we've added Cousins and Nene is still producing at a fairly high level, albeit in 28-30 MPG (and would be an expiring)

That's a starting lineup that can win an NBA title. EG may well build a championship contender by simply not blowing a few draft picks and doing a half decent job of managing the cap.

[TGW]

One thing I'm sure of is that I want nothing to do with next year's second tier free agent fallback targets outside of just a couple of younger bigs. Even a lot of the first tier name guys look like "bad contract by year 3" candidates given the minutes logged and the kind of cash they're eligible to receive.

Agreed. I think we will look to make a play for Cousins or Bosh, or maybe some kind of trade for Horford or Aldridge, but chances are, none of that will pan out. Our fall back will be to resign Okafor to a 2-year deal and try again in 2016 when Nene comes off the books.

*sigh*

Unless another GM is here next season, I expect nothing less than status quo, safe moves from Grunfeld. I expect him to resign Okafor to a multi-year deal for too much money because that's what Grunfeld does. I also expect a small move for a mediocre backup bigman sometime soon. I think he's sold himself on this team, much like he did with the Arenas/Butler/Jamison squad, and he's going to do what it takes to keep this roster intact. I don't expect any moves for Cousins (you guys need to let it go) or Bosh.