Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII

[nate33]

But what Dangermouse is the most right about is that Ernie is telling Ted that this mess is all because of injuries. All because of bad luck.

No, it's because of Ernie Grunfeld's work as a GM. Period.

This back and forth the last couple pages has been interesting. If people here are making the case that this year's disappointing performance is mainly due to injuries and bad luck, then Ernie is certainly making the same case to Ted.

And there's at least some possibility that Ted is buying it. Despite his preseason statements about "no excuses" and expecting 50 wins, it would be difficult for him to accept the argument that the roster just isn't talented enough and/or the coaching/culture to get the most out of that talent just isn't there. It would require Ted to change course in a way that would constitute an admission that he was wrong about what he's been smugly selling us for years. Even if he didn't say so explicitly.

So, let's say you agree that the problem this year has been injuries and luck. You expect that (basically) the same Wizards roster will win around 50 games and be better than the Pacers and Bucks if they come healthy next year. Whether you're the owner or just us fans. Then you should probably agree that Ernie's been doing a pretty good job overall, and that major roster moves or front office changes aren't called for. The Wizards just need better health and luck.

What results or evidence would make you change your mind? That's probably too broad and rhetorical a question for the trade thread, but this discussion above clarified for me that the injuries/luck assessment, implying a status quo approach, may still be plausible enough to Ted that it's the likely outcome for the time being. He'll double down again on Ernie, Wall, Brooks, etc.

I expect to see the same team next year with the exception of Brooks.

I can see them talking themselves into believing that there is enough talent on the current roster. After all, it was the same basic team that took Boston to 7 games 2 years ago only Howard (in their mind) is better than Gortat; and Beal and Porter now should be better than Beal and Porter then. And now they have Bryant and Sato contributing.

But they can't ignore the fact that the team played terribly at the start of the season even when healthy. There was a huge lack of chemistry and defensive effort. Something has to change. Fans need some reason to believe next year will be better. I think the fall guy will be Brooks. They'll ride him out for the remainder of the season because he is being paid so much, but they'll fire him in the summer. Next year, they'll bring back the same squad (without Ariza and Morris) and give it one more run. If they suck again, then they'll finally consider blowing it up, which would presumably involve the departure of Ernie and Wall, plus possibly Porter and Beal.

[BigA]

I expect to see the same team next year with the exception of Brooks.

I can see them talking themselves into believe that there is enough talent on the current roster. After all, it was the same basic team that took Boston to 7 games 2 years ago only Howard (in their mind) is better than Gortat; and Beal and Porter now should be better than Beal and Porter then. And now they have Bryant and Sato contributing.

But they can't ignore the fact that the team played terribly at the start of the season even when healthy. There was a huge lack of chemistry and defensive effort. Something has to change. Fans need some reason to believe next year will be better. I think the fall guy will be Brooks. They'll ride him out for the remainder of the season because he is being paid so much, but they'll fire him in the summer. Next year, they'll bring back the same squad (without Ariza and Morris) and give it one more run. If they suck again, then they'll finally consider blowing it up, which would presumably involve the departure of Ernie and Wall, plus possibly Porter and Beal.

This is logical and a reasonable expectation based on what we know. Make Brooks the fall guy. Assume that the Wall of 2 years ago will show up again with a different coach.

And maybe the desperation to throw money at Brooks was more a Ted decision than an Ernie decision, which makes the above more likely, I think.

I'm thinking back to when hands11 used to argue that all of Ernie's bad moves (e.g. #5 for Miller/Foye) were being dictated by Abe Pollin. Therefore, it wouldn't be fair to evaluate Ernie until 3-5 years after the ownership change.

Maybe we can't fairly evaluate Ernie until 3-5 years after Ted sells the team to Steve Jobs's widow. He's just had bad luck with owners.

[payitforward]

No doubt. The Zards are not going to overtake any of these teams this season. Didn't mean to suggest that. I was talking about next season and beyond when I talked about the Zards (with a core of Beal, Wall, Porter, Sato, Howard, Bryant, Brown & Green) having the talent to be competitive with the Pacers & Bucks.

Take away Wall and Beal, and that’s an awful team.

And to make it worse, I’m no longer sold on the Wall/Beal vibe. Something is just off there.

Take away Giannis and Middleton and how good are the Bucks? Take away Oladipo and Turner and how good are the Pacers? Take away Westbrook and George and how good is OKC?

Take away most teams two best players and they are not going to be very good.

Obviously, if you take away any team's 2 best players, they won't be as good as they are with those players. That's true by definition.

&, if you took Giannis & Middleton off Milwaukee this year they might be as bad as we are this year -- at full strength! OTOH, take Oladipo & Turner off of Indy, & they are still a much much much better team than we are at full strength.

In fact... take Turner's numbers off their team & Beal's numbers off ours. The rest of Indy's players have logged just under 6300 minutes with above average numbers at the positions they play. W/o Beal the rest of Wizards have produced just under 1900 minutes of above average play. (In fairness, Beal has played 400 more minutes than Turner).

Why do you think our roster is more or less as good as the Bucks & Pacers? Because you're a Wizards fan!

The thing is, Zards, it just isn't the case. At our very very best -- 2016-17 -- we were never on a win pace near as good as either of those teams is on this year. Never particularly close.

The Bucks are on a 60-win pace. Indy's on a 56 win pace.

[payitforward]

What do you guys think about Beal for Siakam, O.G. and two 1sts from Toronto?

What firsts?

Make it Wright instead of Anunoby, & I'd be happy to make the trade.

[Illmatic12]

What do you guys think about Beal for Siakam, O.G. and two 1sts from Toronto?

If they're unprotected 1sts, then I think the value is about in the ballpark. That's something I would look at.

[Dat2U]

What do you guys think about Beal for Siakam, O.G. and two 1sts from Toronto?

What firsts?

Make it Wright instead of Anunoby, & I'd be happy to make the trade.

Meh. I like Siakam. I think Anunoby is an absolutely wretched offensive player and have zero interest in him. Delon Wright is due a payday this offseason so we'd have to resign him? Those picks are likely at end of 1st round.

I need more. This seems heavy on C-level assets and light on quality.

[Induveca]

What do you guys think about Beal for Siakam, O.G. and two 1sts from Toronto?

What firsts?

Make it Wright instead of Anunoby, & I'd be happy to make the trade.

Same here. I’d rather see Wall go obviously but don’t see it happening. Anunoby has some upside and plays hard as hell, Siakam is worth the risk as well.

Two firsts? Maybe with those and our own pick we move up to snag Reddish or Barrett. Balls bounce our way, who knows Williamson. Risk/reward fully worth it.

Wall/Beal chemistry just isn’t there. I’d even argue Bea could be a decent backup point for Toronto. It’s a solid trade.

[DCZards]

Of course, we weren't good before those injuries, were we? That is, we were 12-18 after 30 games.

The Zards were 1-6 in the first seven games without Dwight and 4-5 in the games he played in, although Howard only played 8 minutes in his last game—a loss to Portland. And Porter missed one of the games in which Howard played. So the Zards have only really been fully healthy for 7 games this season. Not the 30 games that you count.

To be clear, I hope Ted sticks to his “no excuses” dictum and doesn’t use injuries as a reason to not dump EG and Brooks (although I don’t think Brooks will be fired because of his contract).

But I plead guilty to liking this nucleus of players (and it's not simply because I'm a hardcore Wizards fan ): Wall, Beal and Porter are all-stars (or borderline all-stars); Howard can still protect the rim and give you a double-double most nights; Sato and Green are quality role players off the bench; and Bryant and Brown are youngsters with significant upside.

I wouldn’t be surprised (or crushed) to see Wall, Beal or Porter traded—for the right package of course. But I disagree with the notion that this team needs to blown up and rebuilt.

[dangermouse]

But what Dangermouse is the most right about is that Ernie is telling Ted that this mess is all because of injuries. All because of bad luck.

No, it's because of Ernie Grunfeld's work as a GM. Period.

This back and forth the last couple pages has been interesting. If people here are making the case that this year's disappointing performance is mainly due to injuries and bad luck, then Ernie is certainly making the same case to Ted.

And there's at least some possibility that Ted is buying it. Despite his preseason statements about "no excuses" and expecting 50 wins, it would be difficult for him to accept the argument that the roster just isn't talented enough and/or the coaching/culture to get the most out of that talent just isn't there. It would require Ted to change course in a way that would constitute an admission that he was wrong about what he's been smugly selling us for years. Even if he didn't say so explicitly.

So, let's say you agree that the problem this year has been injuries and luck. You expect that (basically) the same Wizards roster will win around 50 games and be better than the Pacers and Bucks if they come healthy next year. Whether you're the owner or just us fans. Then you should probably agree that Ernie's been doing a pretty good job overall, and that major roster moves or front office changes aren't called for. The Wizards just need better health and luck.

What results or evidence would make you change your mind? That's probably too broad and rhetorical a question for the trade thread, but this discussion above clarified for me that the injuries/luck assessment, implying a status quo approach, may still be plausible enough to Ted that it's the likely outcome for the time being. He'll double down again on Ernie, Wall, Brooks, etc.

Don't get me wrong, I would certainly not blame our woes mainly on injuries. But they have been a factor.

I think theres been three factors this year:
- injuries to key players (and players trying to play through injury)
- coaching, specifically the preference for veterans getting minutes over young guys, even when the young guys have clearly earned a bigger role. This has obviously been remedied recently, but how much of that was out of necessity?
- the 'x' factor, unquantifiable, team chemistry, off-court stuff. This could tie back into coaching.

And id never use any of these reasons to give EG a pass as GM, but as you both say, i would bet that EG would be to Ted.

[dangermouse]

Here's another low key "dump Ariza for salary relief" deal that's favorable for both teams. Basically it's two trades with the Lakers.

Trade 1: Ariza for KCP
Trade 2: Morris for Beasley + Zubac

All players in both deals have expiring contracts. The first trade is broken out because Ariza can't be packaged with other salary. It saves us $3M but I think we can squeeze a little more out of LA so the follow up trade saves an additional $3.56M, getting us totally out of the luxtax. LA ends up with two vets with plenty of playoff experience and they keep the decks clear for free agency in the summer. It's a win-win.

If we can't trade Ariza or Morris elsewhere for actual 2nd round picks, I think this is a worst-case scenario deal. We don't get any picks but we avoid the luxtax, make way for the youngsters, and improve our draft position.

I like it. Give the young guys some run the rest of the year and hopefully rise up the draft board.

[BigA]

Don't get me wrong, I would certainly not blame our woes mainly on injuries. But they have been a factor.

I think theres been three factors this year:
- injuries to key players (and players trying to play through injury)
- coaching, specifically the preference for veterans getting minutes over young guys, even when the young guys have clearly earned a bigger role. This has obviously been remedied recently, but how much of that was out of necessity?
- the 'x' factor, unquantifiable, team chemistry, off-court stuff. This could tie back into coaching.

And id never use any of these reasons to give EG a pass as GM, but as you both say, i would bet that EG would be to Ted.

Right, I wasn't saying that you or anyone else is arguing that it's only injuries, just using parts of the reasoning to understand how EG might be spinning it to Ted and what that means.

Certainly, Brooks's performance has been mindblowingly bad. They always say that coaching doesn't make as much of a difference as people think, but maybe this is an exception.

Let's say they come back next year with an average coach and healthy. I think they would do better than they have this year, but I think the ceiling now is lower than I would have put it the last couple years. Maybe 45 or so wins and a 5 or 6 seed if they get all the breaks. I don't think the John Wall of 2 years ago is ever coming back. Hope I'm wrong, but I don't expect the Wizards to get much out of John going forward.

[payitforward]

Of course, we weren't good before those injuries, were we? That is, we were 12-18 after 30 games.

The Zards were ...4-5 in the games (Howard) played in, although Howard only played 8 minutes in his last game—a loss to Portland. And Porter missed one of the games in which Howard played....

...I plead guilty to liking this nucleus of players (and it's not simply because I'm a hardcore Wizards fan ): Wall, Beal and Porter are all-stars (or borderline all-stars); Howard can still protect the rim and give you a double-double most nights; Sato and Green are quality role players off the bench; and Bryant and Brown are youngsters with significant upside.

I wouldn’t be surprised (or crushed) to see Wall, Beal or Porter traded—for the right package of course. But I disagree with the notion that this team needs to blown up and rebuilt.

We were 4-5 with Howard -- i.e. with a fully healthy team (Porter missing one of those games doesn't matter in this case, as we won the game anyway).

4-5 is good?

Howard is at the end of his career. He's played over 35,000 minutes. He's a rental. Not part of our team or any team in a meaningful way going forward.

Jeff Green is a veteran minimum player. I know you like him, but that's what he is. He's still having a good season (good for him -- not good in any overall sense), but it's been sliding bit by bit for many weeks now. Moreover, he too is nearing the end of his career. We aren't going to be building our future around his availability.

No argument about Sato, Brown or Bryant. & we will have a pretty high R1 pick as well.

This is Wall's second in a row season in which he has played poorly & had his minutes curtailed by injury. When he returns next year, it will be his 10th NBA season. This is a veteran heading into the final 1/3 of his career. & a veteran with a significant injury history as well.

That leaves Beal & Porter, & we've talked enough about them for now.

This "core" can't compete for a title. It can't compete to win the East. It can't get out of R2 of the playoffs. It might not be able to get out of R1 -- maybe not even into it.

I just can't see a reason to countermand what we all see with our own eyes.

[Induveca]

Well said PIF

[BigA]

Well said PIF

Right, PIF's post above is a concise, clear-eyed overview of where the Wizards are talent-wise, and what we can expect. Up against the luxury tax, not much in the way of assets to get better, and for the group as a whole we should be expecting a decline in play over time rather than incremental improvement. Most of them are what they are, with a few exceptions like Bryant and Brown.

The very best we can probably expect is getting to the 2nd round.

[dckingsfan]

Well said PIF

Right, PIF's post above is a concise, clear-eyed overview of where the Wizards are talent-wise, and what we can expect. Up against the luxury tax, not much in the way of assets to get better, and for the group as a whole we should be expecting a decline in play over time rather than incremental improvement. Most of them are what they are, with a few exceptions like Bryant and Brown.

The very best we can probably expect is getting to the 2nd round.

Yep, and we aren't getting to the second round

Given that Wall is probably untradeable without also giving up a first (well, maybe Phoenix if they don't get a PG in the draft?). Would you rather trade Bea, Porter or both?

[BigA]

Well said PIF

Right, PIF's post above is a concise, clear-eyed overview of where the Wizards are talent-wise, and what we can expect. Up against the luxury tax, not much in the way of assets to get better, and for the group as a whole we should be expecting a decline in play over time rather than incremental improvement. Most of them are what they are, with a few exceptions like Bryant and Brown.

The very best we can probably expect is getting to the 2nd round.

Yep, and we aren't getting to the second round

Given that Wall is probably untradeable without also giving up a first (well, maybe Phoenix if they don't get a PG in the draft?). Would you rather trade Bea, Porter or both?

The key thing is changing GMs before the next rebuild. They can't be approaching it with the goal of fixing their past mistakes and the assumption that they can contend for the finals with some marginal moves or that they'll win the Durant sweepstakes or whatever.

I agree with nate33 that they should just get out of the tax this year and tank as much as possible to improve their pick.

I wouldn't trade either Beal or Porter right now unless it was a really good offer. I'd prefer to keep Beal. They may ultimately have to trade him if he demands it or it's clear he's going to walk as a FA, but a new FO will have time to patch things up with him.

My expectation for Otto is that he'll be a solid starter but will never make an All-Star game, assuming he can stay healthy. Depending on how things go with Wall (will he have to retire? will you reach the point of needing to attach significant assets just to get rid of him and move forward?), and Beal, you can keep Porter if a partial rebuild is possible. Or trade him based on how your upcoming draft picks perform and what you can get, etc. If you need to tear it to the ground, I guess it would make sense to deal him.

[payitforward]

... Make Brooks the fall guy. Assume that the Wall of 2 years ago will show up again with a different coach....

Except that Brooks was his coach two years ago!

[payitforward]

Well said PIF

Right, PIF's post above is a concise, clear-eyed overview of where the Wizards are talent-wise, and what we can expect. ...

Appreciate the praise, but really it's about as hard to see where we are as it is to read a large billboard at the side of the road.

I have no trouble understanding Zards or anyone who would prefer to look at the positive pieces of all this. It's not like there's nothing good to say about John Wall, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, Troy Brown, Thomas Bryant, etc.

But because of all the salary issues, lost picks, etc., this is a different sort of mess. This is like you spilled ink in your glass of champagne. There's no way to get it out! You have to throw away what's in the glass, wash the glass, & start again.

That doesn't mean we look away from the few bargain assets we have: Sato, Brown, Bryant, Dekker (maybe), our R1 picks in upcoming drafts, etc. It doesn't even mean that we trade away all 3 of Wall, Beal & Otto.

All it really means, come to think of it, is that we fire Ernie, hire someone in his place who there's reason to think can be good -- & let that guy/gal do whatever he/she thinks are the right things to do.

[trast66]

When Ted fired the Caps GM also fired coach. Hard to believe he would fire Brooks and not EG. Its crazy EG still around anyway, but Brooks/EG have should be tied together at this point. Caps did miss the playoffs that year, so if we surge to 8th seed, they will both be back.

[dckingsfan]

Right, PIF's post above is a concise, clear-eyed overview of where the Wizards are talent-wise, and what we can expect. Up against the luxury tax, not much in the way of assets to get better, and for the group as a whole we should be expecting a decline in play over time rather than incremental improvement. Most of them are what they are, with a few exceptions like Bryant and Brown.

The very best we can probably expect is getting to the 2nd round.

Yep, and we aren't getting to the second round

Given that Wall is probably untradeable without also giving up a first (well, maybe Phoenix if they don't get a PG in the draft?). Would you rather trade Bea, Porter or both?

The key thing is changing GMs before the next rebuild. They can't be approaching it with the goal of fixing their past mistakes and the assumption that they can contend for the finals with some marginal moves or that they'll win the Durant sweepstakes or whatever.

I agree with nate33 that they should just get out of the tax this year and tank as much as possible to improve their pick.

I wouldn't trade either Beal or Porter right now unless it was a really good offer. I'd prefer to keep Beal. They may ultimately have to trade him if he demands it or it's clear he's going to walk as a FA, but a new FO will have time to patch things up with him.

My expectation for Otto is that he'll be a solid starter but will never make an All-Star game, assuming he can stay healthy. Depending on how things go with Wall (will he have to retire? will you reach the point of needing to attach significant assets just to get rid of him and move forward?), and Beal, you can keep Porter if a partial rebuild is possible. Or trade him based on how your upcoming draft picks perform and what you can get, etc. If you need to tear it to the ground, I guess it would make sense to deal him.

Lots of good points here (bolded). My question is if you don't think that Otto can ever make an all-star game - wouldn't you trade him at his current salary? And since he doesn't seem to be a fit here - might there be a better team with which to fit in.