Wizards 2019 Offseason Thread

[Illmatic12]

Utah, San Antonio or Dallas didn't have 40 million In basically dead cap working against them. That's the biggest difference, that's what will make it practically impossible to field anything more than a mediocre team without incredible luck.

But San Antonio had a max player sitting out all of last season and still made the playoffs.
Indiana's highest paid player is out and they haven't missed a beat.
Boston has gotten almost nothing out of their highest paid player (Hayward $30M) and are still able to compete.

And if you're calling Wall dead cap, you're basically writing off his NBA career as we know it. Do you complete rule out the possibility that Wall can provide value (obviously not $40M worth of impact, but something) when he returns in the 2020 season?

I think you are jumping the gun here and making an awful lot of assumptions. We don't have to go chicken little mode here. We have a top 6 guard in the league who is 25yo, all of our future first rounders, and an incoming top 10 pick this season. There is still potential to improve from our current position.

Wall is under contract for the next 4 seasons, not 1.

Yes, Iam writing off Wall for the rest of his career. Not because of the last two seasons, but because he has what's known as a basketball death sentence and the guy has never been one to play well when hurt to begin with so...

Beal will be 30 the first year after Wall's deal ends.

Even if your comfortable with Beal as the top option there's no legitimate 2nd or 3rd option around with Wall's torn achillies and Porter getting dumped. You can hope Jabari's motivation in his most recent contract drive carries over but if were relying on Jabari as a core piece, yikes.

It keeps getting repeated the only playable options signed through next season righg now are Beal & Troy Brown Jr with $60 million in dead cap!

It's an exercise in futility to expect to put a team that can win more than 35 games even if you nail the top 10 pick.

Rudy Gay also received that basketball "death sentence" but he must've got off on a technicality.. because he is currently having the most productive & efficient season of his career following recovery from a ruptured achilles. As of now we know that Wall's stitches were removed and his rehab is going well , I'm not ready to write off the rest of his NBA career unless we receive specific information indicating that something went wrong with his recovery.

We don't have to be a good team next season, we just have to have a plan for the future. More options will open up for us in the 2020 season to reshape the roster.

[Ruzious]

But San Antonio had a max player sitting out all of last season and still made the playoffs.
Indiana's highest paid player is out and they haven't missed a beat.
Boston has gotten almost nothing out of their highest paid player (Hayward $30M) and are still able to compete.

And if you're calling Wall dead cap, you're basically writing off his NBA career as we know it. Do you complete rule out the possibility that Wall can provide value (obviously not $40M worth of impact, but something) when he returns in the 2020 season?

I think you are jumping the gun here and making an awful lot of assumptions. We don't have to go chicken little mode here. We have a top 6 guard in the league who is 25yo, all of our future first rounders, and an incoming top 10 pick this season. There is still potential to improve from our current position.

Wall is under contract for the next 4 seasons, not 1.

Yes, Iam writing off Wall for the rest of his career. Not because of the last two seasons, but because he has what's known as a basketball death sentence and the guy has never been one to play well when hurt to begin with so...

Beal will be 30 the first year after Wall's deal ends.

Even if your comfortable with Beal as the top option there's no legitimate 2nd or 3rd option around with Wall's torn achillies and Porter getting dumped. You can hope Jabari's motivation in his most recent contract drive carries over but if were relying on Jabari as a core piece, yikes.

It keeps getting repeated the only playable options signed through next season righg now are Beal & Troy Brown Jr with $60 million in dead cap!

It's an exercise in futility to expect to put a team that can win more than 35 games even if you nail the top 10 pick.

Rudy Gay also received that basketball "death sentence" but he must've got off on a technicality.. because he is currently having the most productive & efficient season of his career following recovery from a ruptured achilles. As of now we know that Wall's stitches were removed and his rehab is going well , I'm not ready to write off the rest of his NBA career unless we receive specific information indicating that something went wrong with his recovery.

We don't have to be a good team next season, we just have to have a plan for the future. More options will open up for us in the 2020 season to reshape the roster.

I appreciate that view, but best case scenario, Wall misses next season and will be re-acclimating himself to the NBA the season after. By then, he'll likely have lost a step, and he's a player completely reliant on speed and explosion - unlike Gay. I think the prudent thing is to not expect great things from Wall, and if he does come back like he was 2 seasons ago (because he hasn't been his old self this season or last season), that's an unexpected bonus.

[doclinkin]

Rudy Gay also received that basketball "death sentence" but he must've got off on a technicality.. because he is currently having the most productive & efficient season of his career following recovery from a ruptured achilles.

Dominique Wilkins too. That's two exceptions to the usual rule, both athletic marvels who relied on that top end athleticism to succeed. On the other hand John Wall is an athletic marvel so maybe that's what it takes to recover from this.

[nate33]

So what? because Wall has a bad contract we must therefore trade Beal for lesser value? That doesn't make any sense to me.

Your assuming lesser value. I'm saying at this moment, with 2 years left on his deal and under an ideal contract his value will never be higher than it will this offseason.

I would not deal him just to deal him. I'd hold onto him if I couldn't get what I would consider a blue chip prospect + additional assets.

fine. I said on several occasions that I'm fine with shopping Beal. But history shows, that superstars rarely get a fair return when they're traded.

[doclinkin]

fine. I said on several occasions that I'm fine with shopping Beal. But history shows, that superstars rarely get a fair return when they're traded.

Is Beal a superstar? He's had a good year. The team is still losing. Seems to me a superstar is a guy who carries a team to a winning record. If we had one of those guys then losing Wall would hurt less. I like Beal, feel like we should keep him, feel like we can still build a nice team with Beal as a key player, but if the object is championship, and if Beal will always be our best player, then I don't see the avenue to a trophy. In this current era. Good is the enemy of great. Nowadays multiple superstars seems to be the only way to get that champagne shampoo at the end of the year.

That said I'm okay with building a nice team and stockpiling picks as best we can along the way -- unless we do get an offer that is shockingly good.

[DCZards]

Your assuming lesser value. I'm saying at this moment, with 2 years left on his deal and under an ideal contract his value will never be higher than it will this offseason.

I would not deal him just to deal him. I'd hold onto him if I couldn't get what I would consider a blue chip prospect + additional assets.

Dat, would the purpose of the type of trade that you posted be to obtain a blue-chip prospect who "may" end up being as good as Beal in short order but on a rookie scale contract. Then those other assets would be able to bring more production to the team using the remaining luxury cap space that would be available from not having to pay Beal?

To bottom out and completely rebuild. In 3-4 years once Wall is an expiring or gone, the Wizards should have the talent/assets to make a serious move in the East.

Dat, I think your plan to bottom out and completely rebuild has merit. It’s just not one that I embrace. I’ve seen too many NBA teams "bottom out" and then spend the next decade trying to become relevant again.

I prefer the approach of building around what we have. Beal and Brown are under contract for the next couple of seasons. I’d prioritize the re-signing of Bryant, Sato and Parker. We’ll be drafting a lottery pick this year (I’m liking more and more what Clarke brings)…and probably another lottery pick next year.

I’d welcome Dwight Howard back for another season (if he chooses to) for the rebounding and rim protection that the Zards desperately need.

(I know the salary cap is an issue in all these moves but you try to figure that out. In fact, I’m depending on Nate to let us know how this can work salary-wise. )

So we’re left with an all-NBA caliber player who is turning 26 this year and hasn’t reached his peak, imo, and four core players (Bryant, Brown, 2 lottery picks) who will be 23 or younger at the start of the 2020-21 season.

We’ll also have Parker who just turned 24, and Sato, who will 29 in 2020-21.

(Howard will almost certainly be gone after next season and so will Ian and his contract.)

Finally, I’m not willing to give up on Wall and assume that he can’t return to being a good NBA player. Maybe not an all-star but still a very productive player. Surgery and rehab in 2019 is far different from what it was even just 10-15 years ago. So fully recovering from an Achilles injury is not out of the question…as it might have been at one time.

[MDStar]

fine. I said on several occasions that I'm fine with shopping Beal. But history shows, that superstars rarely get a fair return when they're traded.

Is Beal a superstar? He's had a good year. The team is still losing. Seems to me a superstar is a guy who carries a team to a winning record. If we had one of those guys then losing Wall would hurt less. I like Beal, feel like we should keep him, feel like we can still build a nice team with Beal as a key player, but if the object is championship and Beal will always be our best player then I don't see the avenue to a trophy. In this current era. Good is the enemy of great. Nowadays multiple superstars seems to be the only way to that champagne shampoo at the end of the year.

That said I'm okay with building a nice team and stockpiling picks as best we can along the way -- unless we do get an offer that is shockingly good.

I think Beal, based on his progression as a player over his career thus far is on the cusp of being a Superstar. As for the team losing, just take one look at Lebron this year. He's having a Lebron type season (27 pts, 8 rebs, 8 asts, w/ Per 26) and the Lakers are losing. Of course, this is not to say that Lebron and Brad are equal, just to highlight that even Superstars need help to win in the NBA. As we all know, once Wall went down and Porter became not that good a player this season, there was no established talent on the roster to help Beal win games. Hopefully, with the emergence and improvement of guys like Bryant, Brown Jr., Sato and possibly Parker, with a high impact rook, we may be able to win enough to sneak into the playoffs next year.

[doclinkin]

I appreciate that view, but best case scenario, Wall misses next season and will be re-acclimating himself to the NBA the season after. By then, he'll likely have lost a step, and he's a player completely reliant on speed and explosion - unlike Gay. I think the prudent thing is to not expect great things from Wall, and if he does come back like he was 2 seasons ago (because he hasn't been his old self this season or last season), that's an unexpected bonus.

For what its worth I think Wall's athleticism has been a hindrance in him developing a complete game. There's a chance with his rehab that he has opportunity to learn the game from the outside and add things that he needs to succeed even while racing with a governor on. Developing an outside shot can be done as soon as it is safe for him to jump. Off ball tactics, seeing the game as a player coach, screening, making teammates better while off the ball, team defense, a lot of this stuff can be learned by seeing it from the outside. I've always been impressed with John's smarts and recall of game situations and game breakdowns in interviews. Which always galled me when he wouldn't apply that understanding in game. I realize now some part of it was a consequence of the pain he was in. And that he did push himself to play when he probably should have had surgery a while ago. I think if that part is removed [pain] we may see a different player. Not coasting on defense, active off the ball, etc. I always thought John could develop a low post game too to punish the short quick players who always gave him fits.

If we get a good coach who takes him under his wing I can see Wall as improving a ton in the team game and situation management. He's got vision and passing that is quicker than other people as well. I wish John had tutelage from Steve Nash who did lack that top gear but was one of the best in the game in things like conditioning and tuning his body for what he asked of it, and had that all-court smarts. But still, Wall loves this game, he's a lifer, I don't see him retiring from the game no matter what happens to his body. If he starts picking up coaching tips from the sidelines then he may surprise all the naysayers who suggest all he has to offer the game is his "Quick ain't Fair" speed.

[Dat2U]

Dat, would the purpose of the type of trade that you posted be to obtain a blue-chip prospect who "may" end up being as good as Beal in short order but on a rookie scale contract. Then those other assets would be able to bring more production to the team using the remaining luxury cap space that would be available from not having to pay Beal?

To bottom out and completely rebuild. In 3-4 years once Wall is an expiring or gone, the Wizards should have the talent/assets to make a serious move in the East.

Dat, I think your plan to bottom out and completely rebuild has merit. It’s just not one that I embrace. I’ve seen too many NBA teams bottom out and then spend the next decade trying to become relevant again.

I prefer the approach of building around what we have. Beal and Brown are under contract for the next couple of seasons. I’d prioritize the re-signing of Bryant, Sato and Parker. We’ll be drafting a lottery pick this year (I’m liking more and more what Clarke brings)…and probably another lottery pick next year.

I’d welcome Dwight Howard back for another season (if he chooses to) for the rebounding and rim protection that the Zards desperately need.

(I know the salary cap is an issue in all these moves but you try to figure that out. In fact, I’m depending on Nate to let us know how this can work salary-wise. )

So we’re left with an all-NBA caliber player who is turning 26 this year and hasn’t reached his peak, imo, and four core players (Bryant, Brown, 2 lottery picks) who will be 23 or younger at the start of the 2020-21 season.

We’ll also have Parker who just turned 24, and Sato, who will 29 in 2020-21.

(Howard will almost certainly be gone after next season and so will Ian and his contract.)

Finally, I’m not willing to give up on Wall and assume that he can’t return to being a good NBA player. Maybe not an all-star but still a very productive player. Surgery and rehab in 2019 is far different from what it was even just 10-15 years ago. So fully recovering from an Achilles injury is not out of the question…as it might have been at one time.

With the roster your suggesting our outcomes would not be very different.

Only difference is the assets gotten for Beal and I'd probably pass on Parker.

You roster looks like a 30-35 win team and I'm talking about having a roster that might win 25 games with hopefully more young talent and assets/picks for the future.

[Dat2U]

Rudy Gay also received that basketball "death sentence" but he must've got off on a technicality.. because he is currently having the most productive & efficient season of his career following recovery from a ruptured achilles.

Dominique Wilkins too. That's two exceptions to the usual rule, both athletic marvels who relied on that top end athleticism to succeed. On the other hand John Wall is an athletic marvel so maybe that's what it takes to recover from this.

Rudy Gay has successfully morphed from a high usage guy to a role player. He averaged 21 minutes his first season back and is now up to 26. He also has Popovich.

If Wall & the Wizards take this approach, at least to the point of significantly limiting Wall's minutes and back-to-backs then I could see where Wall might be useful. But what are the odds that's going to happen ?

[doclinkin]

Rudy Gay also received that basketball "death sentence" but he must've got off on a technicality.. because he is currently having the most productive & efficient season of his career following recovery from a ruptured achilles.

Dominique Wilkins too. That's two exceptions to the usual rule, both athletic marvels who relied on that top end athleticism to succeed. On the other hand John Wall is an athletic marvel so maybe that's what it takes to recover from this.

Rudy Gay has successfully morphed from a high usage guy to a role player. He averaged 21 minutes his first season back and is now up to 26. He also has Popovich.

If Wall & the Wizards take this approach, at least to the point of significantly limiting Wall's minutes and back-to-backs then I could see where Wall might be useful. But what are the odds that's going to happen ?

New GM, new coach: new odds. I'm praying.

If we get anyone from the Spurs coaching tree, there is Rudy's example as well as the example of Manu whose minutes were managed to allow him to play with an all-out playing style in his early years. I'd like to see Wall rehabbing and even coming off the bench while he gets his legs back, while watching Ja Morant show how the floor general game is run.

[DCZards]

With the roster your suggesting our outcomes would not be very different.

Only difference is the assets gotten for Beal and I'd probably pass on Parker.

You roster looks like a 30-35 win team and I'm talking about having a roster that might win 25 games with hopefully more young talent and assets/picks for the future.

It takes at least two all-star level players to contend for anything in the NBA. To trade my current all-star with the "hope" that two more all-stars are going to walk through the door someday soon is not a game I want to play.

I prefer to take my chances with Beal on the roster and trying to draft, trade for or pick up a second all-star level player via free agency.

"A Beal in the hand is worth two in the bush"

[BigA]

And of course we need an analytics shogun overseeing all decisions. I like the idea that we are in the running to land Mike Zarren.

https://www.bulletsforever.com/2019/3/28/18284910/mike-zarren-washington-wizards-boston-celtics-nba

I guess you'd have him until Ainge retires?

[dckingsfan]

It seems like there seems to be two directions folks on the board want to go. Complete rebuild or rebuild around Beal.

I haven't heard anyone say they want EG to do the rebuild - there seems to be overwhelming consensus on that.

There also seems to be consensus that it is going to be a rebuild.

So - hoping for a shiny new GM and a nice rebuilding plan - whatever it is - it's got to be better that what we have - right? right?






or #sowizards?

[Dat2U]

It seems like there seems to be two directions folks on the board want to go. Complete rebuild or rebuild around Beal.

I haven't heard anyone say they want EG to do the rebuild - there seems to be overwhelming consensus on that.

There also seems to be consensus that it is going to be a rebuild.

So - hoping for a shiny new GM and a nice rebuilding plan - whatever it is - it's got to be better that what we have - right? right?






or #sowizards?

If the Wizards get the 1st or 2nd pick I would be more open to keeping Beal b/c at least we've obtained a potential 2nd star. Although if its Zion I would still be open to making a move for either Anthony Davis or Ja Morant with Beal.

[nate33]

It seems like there seems to be two directions folks on the board want to go. Complete rebuild or rebuild around Beal.

I haven't heard anyone say they want EG to do the rebuild - there seems to be overwhelming consensus on that.

There also seems to be consensus that it is going to be a rebuild.

So - hoping for a shiny new GM and a nice rebuilding plan - whatever it is - it's got to be better that what we have - right? right?






or #sowizards?

If the Wizards get the 1st or 2nd pick I would be more open to keeping Beal b/c at least we've obtained a potential 2nd star. Although if its Zion I would still be open to making a move for either Anthony Davis or Ja Morant with Beal.

Its seems like you are hardwired into believing that the only way to get a star is at the top of the draft. I'm getting a "now or never" vibe from you that this is our last shot to obtain a star, and if not, then we've got to blow it up, bottom out and start a brand new 4-year "process" of rebuilding.

My response to that is: Kawhi Leonard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Donovan Mitchell, Nikola Jokic, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green, Devin Booker, Tobias Harris, Pascal Siakam and Klay Thompson. And that's just the All-Star caliber guys found in the middle or later part of the past 7 drafts. There's also a bunch of above-average starters like Clint Capella, CJ McCollum, Andre Drummond, Khris Middleton, Steven Adams, Jusif Nurkic, Miles Turner, Malcolm Brogdon, Domantis Sabonis, Malik Beasley etc. All these guys were picked either in the late lottery or later.

These guys are out there. They're not THAT hard to find. All we need is one star-caliber guy and one above-average starter caliber guy to join Beal. But if we didn't have Beal, then we would need to find two star-caliber guys and an above-average starter.

[doclinkin]

Its seems like you are hardwired into believing that the only way to get a star is at the top of the draft. I'm getting a "now or never" vibe from you that this is our last shot to obtain a star, and if not, then we've got to blow it up, bottom out and start a brand new 4-year "process" of rebuilding.

My response to that is: Kawhi Leonard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Donovan Mitchell, Nikola Jokic, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green, Devin Booker, Tobias Harris, Pascal Siakam and Klay Thompson. And that's just the All-Star caliber guys found in the middle or later part of the past 7 drafts. There's also a bunch of above-average starters like Clint Capella, CJ McCollum, Andre Drummond, Khris Middleton, Steven Adams, Jusif Nurkic, Miles Turner, Malcolm Brogdon, Domantis Sabonis, Malik Beasley etc. All these guys were picked either in the late lottery or later.

I'm curious what if any the commonalities are in the guys listed ^^^ Why were they missed, and what signs did they show. Is there a methodology we can use to look for steals in years when we are not picking at the top.

[Illmatic12]

Rudy Gay also received that basketball "death sentence" but he must've got off on a technicality.. because he is currently having the most productive & efficient season of his career following recovery from a ruptured achilles.

Dominique Wilkins too. That's two exceptions to the usual rule, both athletic marvels who relied on that top end athleticism to succeed. On the other hand John Wall is an athletic marvel so maybe that's what it takes to recover from this.

Rudy Gay has successfully morphed from a high usage guy to a role player. He averaged 21 minutes his first season back and is now up to 26. He also has Popovich.

If Wall & the Wizards take this approach, at least to the point of significantly limiting Wall's minutes and back-to-backs then I could see where Wall might be useful. But what are the odds that's going to happen ?

I think it's extremely likely that Wall is re-integrated in a limited role, at least initially. In fact I would say there's a guarantee that happens . Now whether he eventually breaks out of that and forcefully tries to go back to his old workload & style of play, that we can't say.

Its seems like you are hardwired into believing that the only way to get a star is at the top of the draft. I'm getting a "now or never" vibe from you that this is our last shot to obtain a star, and if not, then we've got to blow it up, bottom out and start a brand new 4-year "process" of rebuilding.

My response to that is: Kawhi Leonard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Donovan Mitchell, Nikola Jokic, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green, Devin Booker, Tobias Harris, Pascal Siakam and Klay Thompson. And that's just the All-Star caliber guys found in the middle or later part of the past 7 drafts. There's also a bunch of above-average starters like Clint Capella, CJ McCollum, Andre Drummond, Khris Middleton, Steven Adams, Jusif Nurkic, Miles Turner, Malcolm Brogdon, Domantis Sabonis, Malik Beasley etc. All these guys were picked either in the late lottery or later.

I'm curious what if any the commonalities are in the guys listed ^^^ Why were they missed, and what signs did they show. Is there a methodology we can use to look for steals in years when we are not picking at the top.

A lot of it is just luck. Many of those players have bear similarities to other prospects who didn't pan out . But what separated them was their work ethic and character, which is often hard to project when you're dealing with 19-20yo kids.

There have been dozens of prospects withsimilar measurables and skillset to Jimmy Butler . But you can't predict whether those guys will develop a maniacal work ethic and focus like Butler did. You can say the Bulls developed him, but I don't think that's entirely true . A lot of it is innate and some teams have been lucky to get those naturally driven talents

[doclinkin]

A lot of it is just luck. Many of those players have bear similarities to other prospects who didn't pan out . But what separated them was their work ethic and character, which is often hard to project when you're dealing with 19-20yo kids.

There have been dozens of prospects withsimilar measurables and skillset to Jimmy Butler . But you can't predict whether those guys will develop a maniacal work ethic and focus like Butler did. You can say the Bulls developed him, but I don't think that's entirely true. A lot of it is innate and some teams have been lucky to get those naturally driven talents

Dunno. I'm not saying I have the winning formula, but every year I tab 2nd rounders who succeed past their draft position. That's based on something as stupid as defensive rebounds relative to their position on court. (My starting search from which I then expand based on other BBIQ measures).

Aside from that I like players with college experience. I've had success in the late picks by selecting players who show improvement year to year in key categories. If a player sees improving assists, dropping TOs and fouls, steady or improving efficiency, improving 3FG% and FT%, any/all while increasing in usage, you know you have a player who is a gamer. I don't have the database kung fu to create a 'work-ethic matrix' and tab the players who show the greatest year by year gains, but by grunt work I've been able to find a few. You tend to get role players this way more than all stars, but a few show up. Especially back when I had access to the Euro stats before Givony took them with him to ESPN.

And now that I've read a few studies on youth vs all-star status, I've been intrigued to look back through drafts to see what signs show early on the breakout players who don't stay. Looking back at the crew Nate cited it seems to me you can do pretty well by selecting freshmen with solid Win Shares, especially with a decent strength of schedule, or at least with big showings against ranked schools. Young players who already have an effect on the court tend to be able to do at the next level. Myles Turner, Jamal Murray, CJ McCollum, Paskal Siakam, etc. If you look at the top 100 Freshman by Win Shares there are not many misses on that list. If I could sort by birth date I bet I'd find even better correlation.

Which suggests this year if we had later picks we look at Tyler Herro, Keldon Johnson, and ...Ignas Brazdiekius?

It's not an exact science, but there are signs if you do the brain work and reconnaissance.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

It seems like there seems to be two directions folks on the board want to go. Complete rebuild or rebuild around Beal.

I haven't heard anyone say they want EG to do the rebuild - there seems to be overwhelming consensus on that.

There also seems to be consensus that it is going to be a rebuild.

So - hoping for a shiny new GM and a nice rebuilding plan - whatever it is - it's got to be better that what we have - right? right?






or #sowizards?

If the Wizards get the 1st or 2nd pick I would be more open to keeping Beal b/c at least we've obtained a potential 2nd star. Although if its Zion I would still be open to making a move for either Anthony Davis or Ja Morant with Beal.

Yep.

If I were GM, I'd auction off Zion to the team that drafts Ja Morant.

I'd finagle a trade, even a three or four-way, to trade John's deal (his preferred team among LAL, CHA, NYK, CLE, etc.) to dump that albatross on to anyone else but the Wizards.

This would be a tremendous time to pick up three stud rookies, all plus defenders. Clarke, Hunter, Morant would be SICK. While keeping Beal?

Get winning players so good even Brooks can't screw it up.

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