2021 Draft thread. Woo! 15th pick here we come! Hoo. Ray.

[NatP4]

Did we discuss the fact that an Oklahoma State team, without Cunningham, beat a top 10 ranked West Virginia team? Maybe his teamates aren’t actually that bad?

It’s been very strange to me that we don’t give Evan Mobley the same “plays on a bad team” pass. USC is horrible. No guard play, awful coaching. Mobley still puts up terrific numbers.

To me, it's not about their numbers. It's about the eye test. I can see Cade Cunningham can fill the SF position (or the SG position) in the NBA right away. He has the necessary physical profile and shooting ability that his success is guaranteed. For him, the only question is whether or not he's merely an above-average starter like an Otto Porter, or a star like a Jason Tatum or Paul George. But there is virtually zero bust risk.

I love Evan Mobley, and I agree that his stats are just as impressive as Cunningham's, but that frame and his rebounding ability are red flags (or yellow flags, at least) that can't be ignored. If he was built stronger and grabbing 11-12 boards per 36, he'd be a no-brainer top pick in the Tim Duncan/Anthony Davis mold. But the possibility exists that his lack of strength and toughness will significantly detract from his NBA potential. Instead of Davis, maybe he's merely Myles Turner or Nerlens Noel.

We must be using different eye tests. I guess I could see Mobley turning into Nerlens freaking Noel if he lost his offensive ability and basketball IQ entirely.

And Cunningham turning into Paul George if he suddenly became an above the rim athlete with a 40 inch vertical.

I actually love the Tatum comparison for Cunningham. Doesn’t actually help his team win all that much. Not super efficient, doesn’t make teamates better. Tatum contributes to Ws because he is a solid defender. Not sure if Cunningham will actually be that at the next level. Bust risk? Nope, but the discussion is about how much these 3 players contribute to Ws.

Again, Suggs&Mobley have the floor of being elite on the defensive end.

What makes Cunningham a better prospect than a guy like Moody? Or Jalen Green even? Green is a much better athlete with slashing and defensive potential. Moody has more ability to play off the ball in a low usage role.

[Ruzious]

Steals by bigs though do seem to translate to good defense. C/PFs who both rebounds well on the defensive end, and who steal the ball at times are generally excellent defenders at the next level. Better even than those who steal the ball and block shots. Often the notable shot blockers are the equivalent to the wing players with steals. Shotblockers tend to be able to do it at the lower level in part by superior size alone, often height but underweight and immobile on the P/R plays that they don't deal with as much in the NCAA but will be forcefed 10-20 times a game in the NBA. Steals by forwards who rebound well on defense are both rare and valuable. These are big mobile heads-up players who can really disrupt opponent game plans. To me these are the true unicorns, more rare and precious than bigs who can shoot from outside. Unibrow, Kawhi, Draymond, etc.

For bigs the metric that seems to indicate a solid positional defender (when cross-referenced against defensive boards) even more than blocks, are assist ratios. Players who can pass well from from the interior while posting solid rebounding measures tend to be guys who understand team concepts. If they don't turn it over they tend to have good hands. As pass dependent players they get fewer opportunities to show their passing, so you may be only looking at 3 or so assists per game. But when you tag that sort of player then you generally can expect smart play at both ends. This is one stat that does seem to translate from Euroball, at least in low post Bigs (not the new breed unicorns who want to be more KD than KG). Marc and Pau were solid in this. Joakim Noah and AL Horford were two others. Unibrow of course.

I'm trying to differentiate Bassey and Queta - both of whom have outstanding stats. If I go by steals, Queta has a big edge this season - though not in past seasons. Bassey is a better shot-blocker and defensive rebounder - though Queta is very good at both. Queta is the better passer. Bassey has a better jump shot and is a better foul shooter. I know you like Bassey. How do you think Queta stacks up?

[nate33]

We must be using different eye tests. I guess I could see Mobley turning into Nerlens freaking Noel if he lost his offensive ability and basketball IQ entirely.

I agree that Noel isn't a great comp because Noel has no offensive ability. I was struggling to find a comparison that was just as skinny and narrow-shouldered as Mobley who could block shots and score, but didn't rebound that much. Theo Ratliff? But he doesn't play offense either. Danny Manning?

[NatP4]

I’ve read some scouting reports and watched some video breakdown showing that Bassey isn’t actually a very good defensive player. He sells out for blocks consistently. Has low IQ on that end. Some of the metrics indicate that Queta has a much more positive impact on the team defense.

I’ve really cooled on Bassey, personally. Not sure why Queta isn’t a lottery pick in the mock drafts.

[nate33]

Am I blind? I don’t even see Kispert on the DBPR list.

[NatP4]

We must be using different eye tests. I guess I could see Mobley turning into Nerlens freaking Noel if he lost his offensive ability and basketball IQ entirely.

I agree that Noel isn't a great comp because Noel has no offensive ability. I was struggling to find a comparison that was just as skinny and narrow-shouldered as Mobley who could block shots and score, but didn't rebound that much. Theo Ratliff? But he doesn't play offense either. Danny Manning?

Yeah, I haven't come up with a comparison either, but I share the same motor/physicality/rebounding concerns.

To me, Suggs is the safe pick, elite defense, all the intangibles, Lowry-like offensive upside. Will be the best player in the draft. Mobley is going to be really good, but not can’t miss like Anthony Davis. Closer to Myles Turner with a more well rounded offensive game. Cunningham is exactly what Tatum is right now in the NBA.

Pick your poison

[NatP4]

Am I blind? I don’t even see Kispert on the DBPR list.

Oh, I was looking at the image in the tweet, which is different.

Yeah, some discretion is necessary when it comes to stacked teams(and any college basketball metric), but most of the players on that list are very good defenders. Obviously Kispert isn’t a better defender than Mobley...

[doclinkin]

I'm trying to differentiate Bassey and Queta - both of whom have outstanding stats. If I go by steals, Queta has a big edge this season - though not in past seasons. Bassey is a better shot-blocker and defensive rebounder - though Queta is very good at both. Queta is the better passer. Bassey has a better jump shot and is a better foul shooter. I know you like Bassey. How do you think Queta stacks up?

Queta is a load. He is fun to watch. Love his passing at that size. Huge hands. Between the two I think I'd pick Bassey. The Mountain West often burns me (Dom McGuire) since they only play each other it seems. Why I missed on Kawhi though, so I dunno. The question is often: is this a 'Big Guy Small School' issue? That's why I go to the game logs. Bassey has done what he does against some huge and tough competition. He will succeed at the next level, not shrink, not take long to adjust, he's a gamer.

Then the rest: Queta being less mobile and athletic suggests that coaches may not find as many minutes for him as a high energy big who is at least showing effort while adjusting (the Etan vs Haywood effect). Then, too, guys with giant hands struggle at the FT line, and coaches will bench them in key late game situations when defense is most critical. I can see Queta struggling to adjust a while. His FT shooting is headed in the right direction, as are his fouls, I think he has a chance to be really good. On this team though we have no Big Man coaching who values the position and knows how to develop it or use his unusual talents. Bassey will make his own path. Queta might be warehoused. He is not a scrappy undersized guard who will be given every chance to play through his suck.

That said Queta with his passing could prove really special in that pivot player position I have been begging to see. I wish we had a visionary coach for our play in the middle.

[Dat2U]

Read on Twitter

Btw, a couple tweets down - it'd be fun to have young players like Maxey and Thybulle that LOVE defense. They actually get excited to play defense. Come to think of it - Baylor's backcourt's like that.

Jalen Green reminds me of a Tyrese Maxey but with an extra gear. I'm really high on Green. Not quite the athlete Anthony Edwards is but I think he's a better prospect than Edwards. Looks more offensively polished than Zach Lavine did at the same age.

[Dat2U]

We must be using different eye tests. I guess I could see Mobley turning into Nerlens freaking Noel if he lost his offensive ability and basketball IQ entirely.

I agree that Noel isn't a great comp because Noel has no offensive ability. I was struggling to find a comparison that was just as skinny and narrow-shouldered as Mobley who could block shots and score, but didn't rebound that much. Theo Ratliff? But he doesn't play offense either. Danny Manning?

Yeah, I haven't come up with a comparison either, but I share the same motor/physicality/rebounding concerns.

To me, Suggs is the safe pick, elite defense, all the intangibles, Lowry-like offensive upside. Will be the best player in the draft. Mobley is going to be really good, but not can’t miss like Anthony Davis. Closer to Myles Turner with a more well rounded offensive game. Cunningham is exactly what Tatum is right now in the NBA.

Pick your poison

Myles Turner with a well rounded offensive game who rebounds better would be a star and an elite player. Turner is an elite defender. Mobley can be even better on that end at defending perimeter players on switches.

Someone on Twitter mentioned Derrick Rose's frosh season in Memphis when comparing Suggs. I think that's an excellent comparison. They are different types of players but similar maturity, focus and quiet but strong leadership of guys older than him.

[nate33]

Jalen Green reminds me of a Tyrese Maxey bit with an extra gear. I'm really high on Green. Not quite the athlete Anthony Edwards is but I think he's a better prospect than Edwards. Looks more offensively polished than Zach Lavine did at the same age.

That guy gets to the rim at will. He is guaranteed to be a quality scorer in the NBA. That doesn't necessarily make him a great player, but it's a start. The true test will be if he develops the ability to be a playmaker and make others around him better. I have no idea if that will happen, but he'll get plenty of years to figure that out because he's going to be able to score.

[Ruzious]

I'm trying to differentiate Bassey and Queta - both of whom have outstanding stats. If I go by steals, Queta has a big edge this season - though not in past seasons. Bassey is a better shot-blocker and defensive rebounder - though Queta is very good at both. Queta is the better passer. Bassey has a better jump shot and is a better foul shooter. I know you like Bassey. How do you think Queta stacks up?

Queta is a load. He is fun to watch. Love his passing at that size. Huge hands. Between the two I think I'd pick Bassey. The Mountain West often burns me (Dom McGuire) since they only play each other it seems. Why I missed on Kawhi though, so I dunno. The question is often: is this a 'Big Guy Small School' issue? That's why I go to the game logs. Bassey has done what he does against some huge and tough competition. He will succeed at the next level, not shrink, not take long to adjust, he's a gamer.

Then the rest: Queta being less mobile and athletic suggests that coaches may not find as many minutes for him as a high energy big who is at least showing effort while adjusting (the Etan vs Haywood effect). Then, too, guys with giant hands struggle at the FT line, and coaches will bench them in key late game situations when defense is most critical. I can see Queta struggling to adjust a while. His FT shooting is headed in the right direction, as are his fouls, I think he has a chance to be really good. On this team though we have no Big Man coaching who values the position and knows how to develop it or use his unusual talents. Bassey will make his own path. Queta might be warehoused. He is not a scrappy undersized guard who will be given every chance to play through his suck.

Great stuff. Watching Bassey, he's got a beast mind-set - which I love. He has that Ben Wallace attitude that anything coming inside is an affront to him. He's not going after blocks because he's chasing them; he's going after them because he wants you to regret trying it against his team. Having said that, he's not the phenom that Wallace was on D - since Ben was one of the best defenders ever, imo. He's a power player who has a good touch. Queta has more similarities to Mo Bamba - who I like but hasn't proven himself.

[Ruzious]

Am I blind? I don’t even see Kispert on the DBPR list.

Oh, I was looking at the image in the tweet, which is different.

Yeah, some discretion is necessary when it comes to stacked teams(and any college basketball metric), but most of the players on that list are very good defenders. Obviously Kispert isn’t a better defender than Mobley...

Not fair that Gonzaga has the top 3 BPR's at least on that list, and that doesn't include Timme - who would be the top scorer on almost any other team.

[NatP4]

I agree that Noel isn't a great comp because Noel has no offensive ability. I was struggling to find a comparison that was just as skinny and narrow-shouldered as Mobley who could block shots and score, but didn't rebound that much. Theo Ratliff? But he doesn't play offense either. Danny Manning?

Yeah, I haven't come up with a comparison either, but I share the same motor/physicality/rebounding concerns.

To me, Suggs is the safe pick, elite defense, all the intangibles, Lowry-like offensive upside. Will be the best player in the draft. Mobley is going to be really good, but not can’t miss like Anthony Davis. Closer to Myles Turner with a more well rounded offensive game. Cunningham is exactly what Tatum is right now in the NBA.

Pick your poison

Myles Turner with a well rounded offensive game who rebounds better would be a star and an elite player. Turner is an elite defender. Mobley can be even better on that end at defending perimeter players on switches.

Someone on Twitter mentioned Derrick Rose's frosh season in Memphis when comparing Suggs. I think that's an excellent comparison. They are different types of players but similar maturity, focus and quiet but strong leadership of guys older than him.

I believe you are referring to the tweet I posted last night in this thread. It’s a great comparison. Suggs is due for a March madness explosion.

Get me a backcourt of Suggs&Beal. They would love playing together. Two winners and leaders with multi-sport and competitive household backgrounds. You’re gonna win a lot of games. (Jared Butler also falls into this category)

Find the rim protector after that, and you might have a contending team. There would be no more questions about re signing Beal.

[pcbothwel]

We must be using different eye tests. I guess I could see Mobley turning into Nerlens freaking Noel if he lost his offensive ability and basketball IQ entirely.

I agree that Noel isn't a great comp because Noel has no offensive ability. I was struggling to find a comparison that was just as skinny and narrow-shouldered as Mobley who could block shots and score, but didn't rebound that much. Theo Ratliff? But he doesn't play offense either. Danny Manning?

Yeah, I haven't come up with a comparison either, but I share the same motor/physicality/rebounding concerns.

To me, Suggs is the safe pick, elite defense, all the intangibles, Lowry-like offensive upside. Will be the best player in the draft. Mobley is going to be really good, but not can’t miss like Anthony Davis. Closer to Myles Turner with a more well rounded offensive game. Cunningham is exactly what Tatum is right now in the NBA.

Pick your poison

Agreed. To me, it's Suggs in the top 4.
7-9: I have Bouknight, Wagner, Springer, Butler, and Sengun. So in this range I take calls to trade down in the late lotto because at least one of these guys will be available.
13-15: I take whoever of the above is here. If neither are available, I look to trade back in the early 20's to take Duerte/Jackson/Garuba.

Its all in flux right now. I could easily see us going 1-7 until the trade deadline and falling below the Magic, Cavs, and Kings.

[nate33]

Not fair that Gonzaga has the top 3 BPR's at least on that list, and that doesn't include Timme - who would be the top scorer on almost any other team.

Actually, Timme ranks second in the league in BPR, behind only Suggs. He just ranks much lower on DBPR so you don't see him on the screen cap I posted. The 4 Gonzaga players rank 1-4 in BPR. It's why I'm a bit suspicious of the stat.

[doclinkin]

Get me a backcourt of Suggs&Beal. They would love playing together. Two winners and leaders with multi-sport and competitive household backgrounds. You’re gonna win a lot of games. (Jared Butler also falls into this category)

I'm on board for both Suggs and Jared Butler on a trade-back.

[NatP4]

Imagine if Gonzaga still had Petrusev, another future quality NBA player that we haven’t really discussed on this board.

[doclinkin]

Great stuff. Watching Bassey, he's got a beast mind-set - which I love. He has that Ben Wallace attitude that anything coming inside is an affront to him. He's not going after blocks because he's chasing them; he's going after them because he wants you to regret trying it against his team.

And he blocks smart. He blocks to his teammates to start the break and keep the ball in play. It is not a vanity block it is a winning play, equivalent to a steal or a charge: a change of possession. Really hard to do, but something he has a knack for. Then it has a chilling effect on opponents who back off and shoot from outside. Bassey values the ball, one reason he is a madman on rebounding, all balls are his ball. He shows up huge in all the key defensive 'four factors' ratings.

That said I'm watching Queta deeper, he really has advanced footwork for his size and age, good body control, good anticipation. Without looking it up, if I had to guess I'd say he must have played a lot of soccer before he got big. He plays the empty spaces well. Even keeps in front of guards on drives.

I am up in the air on these two. Queta with the right coaches could be really special.

EDIT after deeper watching -- damn. Queta is fun to watch. He has Bam/Horford passing and smarts. And a true back to the basket game out to the freethrow line. WIth his passing he wouldn't need to have an outside shot, though he shows a bit of a jumper. Still, he is like a seven foot Draymond on some plays. Okay. I want this guy and a new coach. Jay Wright of Nova will do. Or better UVA's Tony Bennet who likes his smart defensive bigs.

Watch on YouTube

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Man I like Evan Mobley just fine but damn, If I could trade back and get Queta plus picks/futures, I'd be happy. Popovich would turn Queta into an all-star. Yes he's ding this against smaller players, but that footwork and passing will translate. You can only play against the guys they give you. He's a smart player maximizing what he does well. His ratios of Blocks and Steals to fouls is pretty stellar. 8.2:4.8 per 100 possessions. 3 fouls per 40 minutes for a defensive big is excellent. Bigs who can defend without fouling are successful players at the next level.

[doclinkin]

Okay I want a trade back to pick up Queta and Butler and picks. I'd take our #7/8 for OKC's #17 and #31 and whatever else I could wrangle. Though I'd be nervous about the Spurs at #21. I expect the mocks will change after the combine, Queta looks like he will measure long. I think he is a dark horse for some team to 'reach' for him in the first round. I wouldn't hate if that was us. Maybe getting Davion Mitchell instead of Butler.