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2025 Draft Thread - Part 3

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Re: 2025 Draft Thread - Part 3 

Post#661 » by NatP4 » Thu Jun 19, 2025 3:19 pm

nate33 wrote:Pretty high praise!


Essengue’s numbers in his last 10 games are pretty crazy given the context.

His team is in the German league playoffs. The playoff games have been against Alba(euroleague team), Wurzburg, and now Bayern Munich (euroleague team with a 19-15 record in euroleague play).

His per 36 in that stretch: 19.7 points 10.7 rebounds 2.8 assists 1.0 steals 0.5 blocks 1.9 turnovers 67.5% TS 135 offensive rating 100 defensive rating 56/33/72 shooting splits.

Alba is the worst team in Euroleague, but Bayern is 9th in the league. Impressive production for an 18 year old against this level of competition.
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Re: 2025 Draft Thread - Part 3 

Post#662 » by nate33 » Thu Jun 19, 2025 3:20 pm

prime1time wrote:
pcbothwel wrote:
prime1time wrote:https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/45541843/ace-bailey-cancels-76ers-visit-ahead-nba-draft



But why?… Even if he hits, he’s Rashard Lewis/MPJ. So he’s the 3rd/4th best player on a contender if things go well. Hes Rui/Wiggins if it doesn’t, and possibly even worse if it all falls apart.
How anyone thinks he’s better than Tre is beyond me.
it could be argued that coward is a better bet of a similar prototype at much better value.

So Tre is a guaranteed 2nd best player on a contender?

I'd say Ace has a higher ceiling but lower floor than Tre. Given our situation, I'd prefer Ace. But I don't think it's unreasonable for other teams to prefer Tre. Tre is probably more NBA-ready to fit in a role on a competitive team.
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Re: 2025 Draft Thread - Part 3 

Post#663 » by The Consiglieri » Thu Jun 19, 2025 3:24 pm

nate33 wrote:
PaulinVA wrote:Excerpt from David Aldridge at The Athletic:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6430848/2025/06/19/nba-draft-confidential-wings-2025/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983&userId=7030725&source=dailyemail

Ace Bailey | 6-8 wing/forward | 18 years old | Rutgers



College head coach No. 2 (his team played Rutgers): Has to get stronger. In college, he can play three/four. In the NBA, he has to be a two/three. Tough shot maker. Shot quality might have to improve. Really good shot maker off the bounce.

Western Conference executive No. 2: Is he a talented kid? Yes. But he better get to the right environment. … If he gets in a dysfunctional situation, he could be out of the league in five years.

Man, that's some pretty cold water being thrown onto the Ace hype.

With Ace, it's obviously going to boil down to his character. Most of his flaws on the basketball court don't concern me too much. Teams will have to guard him so close that he should be able to develop effective ways to get to the rim. The playmaking may never be good enough to be a number 1 option, but he could be a rich man's Klay Thompson and that's still an All-Star.

The real question about him is whether or not to attribute his inconsistency and lack of focus and drive to his youth; or is it likely to be a persistent character trait? If the Wizards do draft him, I hope they've interviewed him and done their research.


No doubt, and I was/am? a Bailey trade up guy, but, ----, ouch.

It's also what you care about. The defense thing hits you, hits me, that's a HUGE NEGATIVE.

Similarly I read the Tre Johnson piece and I am OUT OUT OUT. After 36-37 years of watching drafts, everything I read about Tre screams that he'll be a guy people are disappointed with because he is NOT GOING TO CHANGE. Is that true? Can he grow? Can he use his attributes to be a great defensive player? Can he learn to more aggressively go inside, but also be much much more of a team player? You read that write up and he sound so so so much better for Philly, for San Antonio, for Houston, for Portland, teams that are farther along, have some veteran leadership in place, he sounds absolutely horrific for a team of 20 and 21 year olds like us, lacking a true alpha dog. He sounds like he'd be a chucker idiot who'd develop an insane amount of bad habits.

I can picture future success, but I also just think he'd hit the floor of his potential in DC, he needs to land on a team that's just closer to contending or already contending. I'm not looking at rosters when I say Philly, San Antonio, Houston or whatever, I'm talking about teams ready to win, with the people in place that will hold him accountable and not tolerate his bull----. With us he'd run wild in all the wrong ways.

Fears sounds good, and exiting, but also a bit of a disappointment, unlikely to ever be a star. The more I read the more I feel like Maluach or Bailey should be the pick, or a trade out and down, I don't think Tre or Fears move the needle close to enough (and man would they be disappointing! after all these trade up rumors).
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Re: 2025 Draft Thread - Part 3 

Post#664 » by doclinkin » Thu Jun 19, 2025 3:59 pm

payitforward wrote:
AFM wrote:I'd also like to remind this board that I thought Shabazz Muhammad would be a good pro.

I did too, & I still don't see why he didn't develop into one.


Shabazz’ parents lied about his age. IIRC he was like 2 years older than his grade, so what looked like standout production was simply a product of being more developed already.

This was a key instance that had me looking into the ‘value’ of age when assessing draftees. And where I differ with Dats tiers where he flatly states who a 18 year old ‘is’ or is likely to be based on today’s production. I disagree with his assertion that only standout outliers transcend their early levels. To my read of the data there are some stats that standout in early production as green flags for future development and others that matter less since they reliably improve with minimal coaching. There are even some stats that suggest a likelihood of future effort. Thus continued improvement even in offseasons.
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Re: 2025 Draft Thread - Part 3 

Post#665 » by AFM » Thu Jun 19, 2025 4:00 pm

doclinkin wrote:
payitforward wrote:
AFM wrote:I'd also like to remind this board that I thought Shabazz Muhammad would be a good pro.

I did too, & I still don't see why he didn't develop into one.


Shabazz’ parents lied about his age. IIRC he was like 2 years older than his grade, so what looked like standout production was simply a product of being more developed already.

This was a key instance that had me looking into the ‘value’ of age when assessing draftees. And where I differ with Dats tiers. There are some stats that standout in early production as green flags for future development and others that matter less but reliably improve with minimal coaching.


I remember that. I think he pulled out his drivers license and was like "duhhh I always thought I was 18??? says so right here!!!"
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Re: 2025 Draft Thread - Part 3 

Post#666 » by doclinkin » Thu Jun 19, 2025 4:05 pm

AFM wrote:


This is you right? I like the vids.
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Re: 2025 Draft Thread - Part 3 

Post#667 » by AFM » Thu Jun 19, 2025 4:09 pm

doclinkin wrote:
AFM wrote:


This is you right? I like the vids.


I'm not a 20 year old filipino kid, no. :lol:
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Re: 2025 Draft Thread - Part 3 

Post#668 » by payitforward » Thu Jun 19, 2025 4:17 pm

Athletic artoicle is great -- a must read!
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Re: 2025 Draft Thread - Part 3 

Post#669 » by NatP4 » Thu Jun 19, 2025 4:22 pm

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Re: 2025 Draft Thread - Part 3 

Post#670 » by pcbothwel » Thu Jun 19, 2025 4:29 pm

nate33 wrote:
prime1time wrote:
pcbothwel wrote:
But why?… Even if he hits, he’s Rashard Lewis/MPJ. So he’s the 3rd/4th best player on a contender if things go well. Hes Rui/Wiggins if it doesn’t, and possibly even worse if it all falls apart.
How anyone thinks he’s better than Tre is beyond me.
it could be argued that coward is a better bet of a similar prototype at much better value.

So Tre is a guaranteed 2nd best player on a contender?

I'd say Ace has a higher ceiling but lower floor than Tre. Given our situation, I'd prefer Ace. But I don't think it's unreasonable for other teams to prefer Tre. Tre is probably more NBA-ready to fit in a role on a competitive team.


I have Tre's "Likely Ceiling" as higher (Booker) than Ace (Ingram/MPJ). Ace has a tantalizing/theoretical ceiling of a more athletic Ingram, but its really in the 5% range and not worth betting on.

I see little to no gap between the Wolf/Coward/Beringer/Fleming/Powell/Hugo group and the Queen/Ace/Maluach/Essengue/Bryant/Demin group... So I am all for trading down into the 15-22 range and picking up additional 2026 assets.

OKC is my favorite with all their future picks and us already being part of the 2026 swap with them.
--- 6 & 40 <=> 15 & 24... Plus most favorable of 2026 Utah, LAC, or Philly pick

Nets are also great match.
--- 6 & 40 <=> 8, 26, 36
And I would be willing to bypass 8 and let them jump start rebuild with them having 6 AND 8. I would need to think it through
--- 6 & 40 <=> 19, 26, 27... Plus the Philly 2028 1st

Atlanta is also in a weird spot. They have Trae, Jalen, Dyson Daniels, Risacher, and Okongwu... and they need to get better now due to the swap with SAS in 2026 and their 2027 pick also going to SAS. Do they jump to 6 and pick up the last building block and make a 5-year run in a weak east?
--- 6 & 40 <=> 13 & 22... plus maybe another small asset
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Re: 2025 Draft Thread - Part 3 

Post#671 » by nate33 » Thu Jun 19, 2025 4:29 pm

NatP4 wrote:
TGW wrote:Re: Essengue

I've read that he didn't play hard the entire season. Other scouts say he's high motor. Obviously, most people have only seen highlights and clips. Which is it?




Been slowly working my way through this video. I see a guy that plays hard and has a good motor. Defense clips are towards the end/last 50 minutes or so.

I had cooled a bit on Essengue because Dat2U doesn't like him, but I'm starting to be interested again. If VJ, Ace and Tre are off the board at #6, I think I'd rather trade down to #8 and draft Essengue more so than take Fears at #6.

I really like that he has played better later in the season. I love the way he stuffs the stat sheet even though he doesn't even know what he is doing out there. And the FTA rate is amazing. If his improvement in effort and consistency over the second half of the season is a sign of a better work ethic that comes with age and maturity, then his ceiling just got much higher.
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Re: 2025 Draft Thread - Part 3 

Post#672 » by nate33 » Thu Jun 19, 2025 4:32 pm

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The bad free throw numbers are because of one horrific 1-8 outing in one game.

Outside of that one game, he is a 74% FT shooter, which is totally fine for an 18 year old kid.
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Re: 2025 Draft Thread - Part 3 

Post#673 » by doclinkin » Thu Jun 19, 2025 4:40 pm

gesa2 wrote:
tontoz wrote:
NatP4 wrote:Philly would go Tre Johnson at 5. Charlotte goes Kon or Maluach (Mark Williams trade rumors make sense).

Kon/Bailey would be a really tough choice for Washington IMO.



I really don't think that would be a tough decision at all lol. Did you forget the green font?

Dawkins and Winger seem to value having players with BBall IQ that are also long for their position. This choice if it breaks like this is not clear with those values, although I’d go with Ace


Youth. Defensive length. Athleticism. Upside potential. They are okay with flaws if they are fixable. Kon is older than Ace and has been in basketball academies so he’s more skilled. Better BBIQ. But Ace has everything else over the slower shorter ground bound older Kon.

There’s no choice here. It would be Ace.

I buy the rumors that we are trying to trade up to the Spurs for Harper. I think they’d be happy if Maluach is on the board at 6. I think they’re intrigued by Fears. All have youth and upside potential. But if Ace maneuvered a slide to 6 they’d snatch him and call it a win. They end up with the top 3 talent that they ‘lost’ in the lotto boondoggle.

I think much of the rest of the smoke had to do with Philly or the Hornets trying to gin up a bidding war for a player that doesn’t fit their best needs.

I do think Ace is looking at only 2 teams. Us or Brooklyn.

I think Brooklyn is looking to climb up, but it may be a choice between Ace/Fears unless they can trade all the way up to #2 with a combo of picks.

I buy the rumors that the Spurs are interested in putting Maluach next to Wemby to save him wear and tear against the monster bigs.
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Re: 2025 Draft Thread - Part 3 

Post#674 » by FAH1223 » Thu Jun 19, 2025 4:43 pm

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Re: 2025 Draft Thread - Part 3 

Post#675 » by The Consiglieri » Thu Jun 19, 2025 4:50 pm

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When I read stuff like that, all I want to argue is, what did he do in high school? I know what his raw PPG, Rebounds, Assists, Blocks were, but I don't know percentages. In my experience, probably the single most frustrating piece of the need to draft 18 year olds is only having 20-30ish games worth of data, 1000 minutes to work with etc. It is a tiny sample size. What if Bailey was hitting 50.5% of pull up 2's and 41% of pull up 3's instead of 34.4 and 24.4% or whatever O"Connor's #'s were in high school? I think it sucks that his shooting was such a mess, but I also know that the guy was piling up #'s in high schools to the tune of being the #2 consensus recruit ahead of Harper, Tre, Queen, etc. Is it possible he just struggled on a team that was a total mess? Was it that he was the reason the team was a total mess? Is it somewhere in-between. I'm not sure, and I'm definitely in favor of drafting young prospects period, as we have been doing, but one of the liabilities of that is beyond the no brainers like Flagg, a lot of time you get data that is hard to work with, like Fears and Bailey being so ---- from 3, and in general shooting. What do you take away from that? Is it a fundamental problem, or a problem of sample size, or randomness, or being so young (Fears) or playing on a crap team like Bailey? I don't know. The #'s are the #'s but the sample size is small as hell (1000 total minutes, right around what a senior in high school plays (650-1200).
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Re: 2025 Draft Thread - Part 3 

Post#676 » by The Consiglieri » Thu Jun 19, 2025 4:52 pm

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Considering all of this, does this Haliburton guy have a history of being "right" or just being into rumors and pretending he's a source (or is he a source?).
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Re: 2025 Draft Thread - Part 3 

Post#677 » by The Consiglieri » Thu Jun 19, 2025 4:54 pm

I wonder if our supposed fixation on Fears means 18 is likely to be a big? Seems like it. I sure as hell hope we don't trade up for Fears, I'd much rather sit at 6 and draft whomever falls there amongst Bailey, Fears and Maluach (my preference is probably Bailey, then Maluach then Fears, I think I'm off the Tre Train entirely).
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Re: 2025 Draft Thread - Part 3 

Post#678 » by nate33 » Thu Jun 19, 2025 4:58 pm

doclinkin wrote:
gesa2 wrote:
tontoz wrote:

I really don't think that would be a tough decision at all lol. Did you forget the green font?

Dawkins and Winger seem to value having players with BBall IQ that are also long for their position. This choice if it breaks like this is not clear with those values, although I’d go with Ace


Youth. Defensive length. Athleticism. Upside potential. They are okay with flaws if they are fixable. Kon is older than Ace and has been in basketball academies so he’s more skilled. Better BBIQ. But Ace has everything else over the slower shorter ground bound older Kon.

There’s no choice here. It would be Ace.

I buy the rumors that we are trying to trade up to the Spurs for Harper. I think they’d be happy if Maluach is on the board at 6. I think they’re intrigued by Fears. All have youth and upside potential. But if Ace maneuvered a slide to 6 they’d snatch him and call it a win. They end up with the top 3 talent that they ‘lost’ in the lotto boondoggle.

I think much of the rest of the smoke had to do with Philly or the Hornets trying to gin up a bidding war for a player that doesn’t fit their best needs.

I do think Ace is looking at only 2 teams. Us or Brooklyn.

I think Brooklyn is looking to climb up, but it may be a choice between Ace/Fears unless they can trade all the way up to #2 with a combo of picks.

I buy the rumors that the Spurs are interested in putting Maluach next to Wemby to save him wear and tear against the monster bigs.

Yeah, I agree about Ace. Neither Philly nor Charlotte will draft him. And I doubt Utah will either. So Philly's play here is to try and generate a demand by pitting Brooklyn and Washington against each other. I don't think it's going to work. I think Ace has tanked his trade value enough that neither Brooklyn nor Washington are going to bid all that much to move up.

One wrinkle in all of this is that Philly might be more interested in a win-now player than your typical #3 picking team. Could a team like Utah trade Markkanen for Paul George and the #3 pick (without including their own #5 pick)? Or maybe Brooklyn could trade Cam Johnson and the #19, without giving up their #8? Or Boston could trade Jaylen Brown for PG plus #3. The point is, Philly's position is very unpredictable because there are a ton of potential offers that will fit their needs. They're not necessarily hell bent on staying in the high lottery.

If no trade materializes, I think Philly will end up drafting VJ. Then Charlotte will go with either Tre or Kon because Bailey has made it clear he doesn't want to play there. Utah is a wildcard, but I think they'll probably take the remaining of Tre/Kon or perhaps Fears.

I think the most intriguing part of all this is San Antonio. If either Brooklyn or Washington trades up to #3, how much more is necessary to move up to #2?
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Re: 2025 Draft Thread - Part 3 

Post#679 » by NatP4 » Thu Jun 19, 2025 5:08 pm

The Consiglieri wrote:Considering all of this, does this Haliburton guy have a history of being "right" or just being into rumors and pretending he's a source (or is he a source?).


He’s not a writer/reporter, doesn’t work for the organization, it’s just a fan. (Not saying he doesn’t have connections)

OKC is notorious for being a steel trap in terms of not allowing any information to leak from the organization. This seems to be how Dawkins/Winger have operated since coming to DC.

Anything leaking out is probably because they want it to get out there. I’m guessing they would like to trade down, or try to entice a team into making an offer. These rumors center around “secret workouts” with basically every player potentially on the board at 6 -Kon, VJ, Fears, Maluach, Queen, etc..
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Re: 2025 Draft Thread - Part 3 

Post#680 » by Dat2U » Thu Jun 19, 2025 5:10 pm

Bailey's HS coaching staff utiilized him better than Rutgers did. This version of Bailey is basically a 6-10 version of Klay Thompson

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