nate33 wrote:The more I research Portis, the more I like. He has some numbers that suggest a high bball IQ: low turnovers, low fouls, high steals, good FT% and decent assists for a big. Also, he ranks 3rd in college basketball in offensive rebounding which is a good indicator of in-game athleticism and motor.
Video of him suggests he's not the most fluid athlete in the world, but he also looks a bit doughy and unbalanced. I really think a year or two of elite professional training on his core strength and diet would do wonders for his athleticism. He's no where near his peak potential, physically.
Frankly, I'm surprised the mocks have him going in the mid teens. He seems like a late lotto type of talent to me.
Bear in mind I watch very little college basketball. Take my draft opinions with a healthy dose of salt.
Welcome to the bandwagon, nate - always room for one more!
I started the season with my eye on Portis, and then was fortunate that the only regular season college game I saw in person was Georgia vs. Arkansas, and was in the 5th row so had a true courtside view. Some of my observations:
* He is very smooth, or whatever synonym you want to use. I really came away with the feeling that he wasn't giving 100% - but that was because of the way he moves. This is why I was surprised to hear the scouting reports praise his "high motor." If you're equating effort with Etan-style elbows and grunting, then you will think he is not a high effort guy. But the reality is that he does give effort, and is very active, but does it in a way that doesn't have the outward appearance of exerting himself on every possession.
* Because of that, I think he has a better upside than a (to pick a name) Faried-type player. Faried maximizes every second on the court, and is able to take advantage of opponents' coasting through the season, but that is a hard way to go for the long term. Portis does well to balance effort with skill, and will be better suited to playoff basketball than a Faried, because by the playoffs, (almost) everyone is giving maximum effort with more rest available, so Faried's advantage is somewhat neutralized.
* He's not a big-time defender (even though he was definitely the tallest player on the court), but will make the occasional play that surprises you. He had one block in space - out at the FT line extended - where I'm sure the shooter didn't have any idea he was a threat to block it. That and the occasional steal (poked away a few balls with his long arms) will you get a few possessions shut down each game without a shot even getting to the rim.
* The crowd was on him all game. The headband makes him stand out (as if being almost 7' wasn't enough), and every time he touched the ball, the crowd jeered. He seemed entirely unfazed - never played to the crowd, never seemed affected at all. Very composed. I like that.
* His teammate Qualls was far flashier - made the big 3-pointer or the dunk, played to the crowd, all of that. But in the end, Portis was the one who had the bigger impact. Not in big moments but in all the little moments over 40 minutes. He might be the anti-Pierce, in that a few years from now I could see him as the guy who gets you the unremarkable 15 & 8 through the first 3 quarters, while the "star" makes the plays in the 4th to seal the win. The thing is, you wouldn't have been in position for the star to win the game if it weren't for Portis' work to get you there.
* I don't think he took a 3-pointer in the game I saw, but had a very nice stroke from the FT line and on the mid-range jumper (uh oh...). I definitely think he could become a Stretch 4 and develop the NBA 3-ball.
* His body type is a bit unusual. To me, he seems to have a skinny frame, but doesn't look like a KG-type wiry guy. Interesting that his numbers are kinda sorta like Bosh, including the 8.0% body fat. Bosh would obviously be an impossible-dream type of best case, especially since Bosh is an excellent defender. But offensively, Bosh might be a good target for Portis to aim for. And I agree that hopefully with professional training, proper diet, and commitment, he will keep his athleticism, and should gain strength while losing some "baggage".
* I do think he can be a small-ball C. I'd be reluctant to start him there or play him more than 10-12 minutes at C as a general rule, but he could definitely get some minutes, including crunch time. If you're trying to get back in a game, or need FT shooting to close out the game, he'd be a great addition as a situational C.
All that said, I'd be a bit nervous about giving up next year's 1st, if only because I know we'll need that pick to round out the roster after (hopefully) signing a big-time FA next summer. I'd rather find another way to get to 14 or 15, although OKC and ATL might be the last 2 teams interested in trading with the Wiz. It would certainly have to be Lottery-protected (to protect against worst-case scenarios), and preferable top 20 protected. But in the end, if it ensured I could get Portis - i.e., not make the trade until the other team is on the board with Portis still available - then I'd probably do it.
"A society that puts equality - in the sense of equality of outcome - ahead of freedom will end up with neither equality nor freedom. The use of force to achieve equality will destroy freedom" Milton Friedman, Free to Choose
