Political Roundtable Part XVII

[nate33]

If you look at the same link he posted it states that Dreamers are enrolled in college at the same rates as US adults, 15-35. He conveniently used the graduation rate to support his narrative, but the majority of DACA recipients are under 25 it's fair to assume that a majority are still in the process of completing college, yet not completed which makes the graduation percentage as an argument disingenuous.

The DACA recipients are being compared against a U.S. cohort in the same age group (15-32) so the U.S. cohort would also have a bunch of people who were too young to have completed college. You are correct that the college enrollment rate of the two groups are similar, but the fact that the graduation rate is so different might suggest that the DACA group has been unsuccessful at college. Though Zonker makes a good point that it may be financing that is hindering the DACA group.

[nate33]

Russia-linked hackers targeting US Senate

Russian hackers from the group known as "Fancy Bear" are targeting the U.S. Senate with a new espionage campaign, according to cybersecurity firm Trend Micro.

The Tokyo-based cybersecurity group tells The Hill that it has discovered a chain of suspicious-looking websites set up to look like the U.S. Senate’s internal email system, and learned that the sites were being operated as part of an email-harvesting operation.

http://thehill.com/policy/cybersecurity/368671-russia-linked-hackers-targeting-us-senate

The fact the Trumps Admn has done NOTHING to combat this in an aggressive way is very revealing. Putin wan't to help the Repubs maintain power and traitorous Republicans are more than happy to look the other way again.

What makes you think that the Administration has done nothing to combat this?

[Pointgod]

If you look at the same link he posted it states that Dreamers are enrolled in college at the same rates as US adults, 15-35. He conveniently used the graduation rate to support his narrative, but the majority of DACA recipients are under 25 it's fair to assume that a majority are still in the process of completing college, yet not completed which makes the graduation percentage as an argument disingenuous.

The DACA recipients are being compared against a U.S. cohort in the same age group (15-32) so the U.S. cohort would also have a bunch of people who were too young to have completed college. You are correct that the college enrollment rate of the two groups are similar, but the fact that the graduation rate is so different might suggest that the DACA group has been unsuccessful at college. Though Zonker makes a good point that it may be financing that is hindering the DACA group.

That age range is pretty wide and it's safe to assume that the American population probably skews towards the upper end of that range so it stands to reason that a higher % would have graduated college just from the mere fact that they are older. The majority of DACA recipients are under 25 so it makes sense to assume that the majority are currently enrolled which means that they wouldn't have graduated, yet. This graduation rate would be more relevant 10 years from now when the majority of DACA recipients are closes to the median age of the US population.

[gtn130]

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Listen man things like values, honesty and integrity don't mean **** as long as you get tax cuts, judges and "sustainable government".

It would be the height of tribalism to conclude that many Republicans are in fact depraved scumbags. I shall not stoop to that level and besmirch the good name of the Grand Old Party.

[Pointgod]

Russia-linked hackers targeting US Senate

Russian hackers from the group known as "Fancy Bear" are targeting the U.S. Senate with a new espionage campaign, according to cybersecurity firm Trend Micro.

The Tokyo-based cybersecurity group tells The Hill that it has discovered a chain of suspicious-looking websites set up to look like the U.S. Senate’s internal email system, and learned that the sites were being operated as part of an email-harvesting operation.

http://thehill.com/policy/cybersecurity/368671-russia-linked-hackers-targeting-us-senate

The fact the Trumps Admn has done NOTHING to combat this in an aggressive way is very revealing. Putin wan't to help the Repubs maintain power and traitorous Republicans are more than happy to look the other way again.

What makes you think that the Administration has done nothing to combat this?

Cause people have actually said something to the point:

https://www.cbsnews.com/videos/us-not-doing-enough-to-defend-against-russias-cyberattacks-morell-says/

[gtn130]

Only 4% of DACA recipients have graduated college in contrast to 18% of American citizens of the same age cohort (15-32) who have a college degree. DACA recipients have one quarter the college graduation rate of the regular population. College graduates make almost double the money of high school graduates.

What's your point here?

They go to college less frequently because they're poor. Poor people are the ones who, you know, emigrate.

[Pointgod]

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Listen man things like values, honesty and integrity don't mean **** as long as you get tax cuts, judges and "sustainable government".

It would be the height of tribalism to conclude that many Republicans are in fact depraved scumbags. I shall not stoop to that level and besmirch the good name of the Grand Old Party.

There are a lot, but give credit to the Republicans that have been speaking out against Trump early on because they realized the disaster that would arise with a Trump Presidency. The problem is that the leadership has shown zero integrity or morality (staying silent at a pedophile being elected is not admirable). So rightly or wrongly the leadership is representative of the party and if the voters keep rewarding bad faith politics then how are they immune from criticism?

[nate33]

Only 4% of DACA recipients have graduated college in contrast to 18% of American citizens of the same age cohort (15-32) who have a college degree. DACA recipients have one quarter the college graduation rate of the regular population. College graduates make almost double the money of high school graduates.

What's your point here?

They go to college less frequently because they're poor. Poor people are the ones who, you know, emigrate.

The point is that the Center for American Progress analysis on future GDP contributions of DACA recipients is likely to be wildly optimistic because it absurdly assumes that DACA recipients will earn as much as average US citizens even though they are much less likely to be college graduates.

[Pointgod]

Only 4% of DACA recipients have graduated college in contrast to 18% of American citizens of the same age cohort (15-32) who have a college degree. DACA recipients have one quarter the college graduation rate of the regular population. College graduates make almost double the money of high school graduates.

What's your point here?

They go to college less frequently because they're poor. Poor people are the ones who, you know, emigrate.

Actually they are enrolled in college at the same rates as Americans 18% vs 20%. Posting just the graduation rate is misleading. They should be applauded for going to college at the same rates despite far less resources than their American born counterparts.

[DCZards]

The point is that the Center for American Progress analysis on future GDP contributions of DACA recipients is likely to be wildly optimistic because it absurdly assumes that DACA recipients will earn as much as average US citizens even though they are much less likely to be college graduates.

So what! We've got a President in the WH who is a college graduate and he's the biggest knucklehead in the universe.

What's absurd is equating earning a college degree to your ability to make a positive and lasting contribution to our society.

[nate33]

http://thehill.com/policy/cybersecurity/368671-russia-linked-hackers-targeting-us-senate

The fact the Trumps Admn has done NOTHING to combat this in an aggressive way is very revealing. Putin wan't to help the Repubs maintain power and traitorous Republicans are more than happy to look the other way again.

What makes you think that the Administration has done nothing to combat this?

Cause people have actually said something to the point:

https://www.cbsnews.com/videos/us-not-doing-enough-to-defend-against-russias-cyberattacks-morell-says/

So a former Obama Administration official who hasn't worked with Intelligence since 2013 is criticizing Trump's Administration on matters that a presumably top secret. Shocking.

[nate33]

The point is that the Center for American Progress analysis on future GDP contributions of DACA recipients is likely to be wildly optimistic because it absurdly assumes that DACA recipients will earn as much as average US citizens even though they are much less likely to be college graduates.

So what! We've got a President in the WH who is a college graduate and he's the biggest knucklehead in the universe.

What's absurd is equating earning a college degree to your ability to make a positive and lasting contribution to our society.

Who said they couldn't make a positive and lasting contribution to society? I merely said that the estimate that they will contribute $443 billion in GDP over the next 10 years is wildly optimistic because it is based on a flawed premise that they will earn as much as average US citizens. It's not a serious analysis. It's a pie-in-the-sky estimate intended to put a really big dollar value next to their names.

[stilldropin20]

I clicked on the article in the hopes that I would learn something new.

I was disappointed.

The very liberal Center for American Progress predicts that the removal of 750,000 DACA recipients would cost the country $433B over 10 years. Let's be generous and assume this estimate is correct and not merely pie-in-the-sky propaganda to serve their cause.

750,000 people producing $433B over 10 years amounts to a GDP per capita per year of $57,600.
Cato's probably more realistic estimate is just $280B over 10 years, which is more like $37,000 per capita.

Economists estimate that American GDP (produced by other 325 million Americans) over the next 10 years will be $236 trillion. That's a GDP per capita per year of $73,000.

So even in these, likely optimistic, scenarios by CAP and CATO, DACA is bringing down the national average.

I've stayed out of this thread, largely b/c I find it so depressing to read what you write here, nate. You are a thoughtful human being on a broad range of subjects, & you seem to have an understanding cast of mind in many situations (insofar as one can tell from the kinds of interactions we have online), yet you provide what is obviously an intellectually skewed commentary like the above....

It's irrelevant that DACA folks are, overall, below national average contributors to GDP. For starters, why don't you remove the contributions to GDP by the top 5% of those 325m Americans, & then re-run your comparison & report the results?

Well... I suppose there's really no reason to bother, actually, because the raw "national average" is, in any case, a figure of no consequence in this kind of discussion. Nor would the economy be made to prosper by removing people who earn a below-average income. Non-scalable actions are unlikely to produce positive results.

Think about it, nate. After you remove some below-average segment, the new average is higher. Hence, a whole new set of people are now below average. If that's a basis for action to improve the economy, then lets remove some of them too, right? &, again, we have a new & higher average, meaning that once again we have a set of people to target for removal. Rinse & repeat -- it never ends.

The idea that this could somehow lead to economic progress is obviously ridiculous. What it would lead to is the destruction of the economy.

I just looked at the CAP analysis. The money quote is:

Note: This analysis assumes that the geographic and skills distribution of the DACAmented workforce looks approximately the same as the full unauthorized workforce.

That's one heck of an assumption! As it turns out, it's a ridiculous assumption. Only 4% of DACA recipients have graduated college in contrast to 18% of American citizens of the same age cohort (15-32) who have a college degree. DACA recipients have one quarter the college graduation rate of the regular population. College graduates make almost double the money of high school graduates.

And I disagree with your premise that you essentially cannot remove the lowest income groups without everyone else sliding downward to fill the gap. There is much more unemployment in low skill sectors than in high skill sectors.

Adding on to the point in Bold. Its not about removing an entire "sector" and in fact it has never been about removing an entire sector. What meaningful immigration reform with secure borders should do is make low end labor more scarce. The more scarce this labor is, the more it will cost Billionaire corporations to find and pay for their low end labor. They NEED the labor. So they will pay for it!! And pay more for it!. The incentive is to get people off of 20-24K of entitlements while sitting at home having children (not working) and incentivise them to instead "go to work." If the low end labor force makes $35-45K per year, you will be able to get many of them off of the couch(off of entitlements) and back in the work force.

This is why the United States has the most oddest of marriages. The poorest of the poor want to come here and bring their families. And the wealthiest of the wealthy want cheap labor. These corporations just got their taxes reduced from 35% to 21% Thats not enough??? they want cheap labor too???? And poor americans want to keep letting cheap labor in the country!!??? Which keeps their wages low!!! For the newly arrived immigrant...this makes sense. $7 per hour is better than $7 per day. And they will move 8 working adults into a 2br apartment and combine their income so as to save and buy a buidling in a poor neighborhood in a few years. The system DOES INDEED WORK FOR THE MOTIVATED IMMIGRANT.

But for the American? for the 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th generation African American????????? the system is NOT working for them!!! And this is a major part of the democratic base. this is the ODDEST OF MARRIAGES. And by odd i do in fact mean what the phuck are you thinking!!!!!!!!! Why are you allowing these dems to destroy the lower end labor pool????

My father was a high school flunky!! But he made $17 per hour with full benefits out of high school in 1963!!! he bought a cheap house with $25k cash in 1965 after 2 years on the job. Those jobs are gone because of the immigration act of `1965. By 1980 there was so much low end immigration from motivated immigrants that came in and filled the low end labor pool. By 1990 the minimum wage was still about $4 per hour!!!!! Think about that!!!!!

Folks! wake up!! if there was significantly less low end labor immigration, you would get paid higher amounts for low end jobs. Thats just a fact! And then every ones wages would rise!!!!!!!!!! a(at the lower ends) High paid professionals income would remain the same...possibly drop!! But what the phuck do you care!!!????? If you are a true democrat, why do you care about people making over $100k per year??? Oh wait, scratch that...most of you do make over $100k per year and your politics are strictly emotional based. Simply, politics that make you feel better about yourself. the country be damned! Sustainable government be damned!

let's let millions into the country! Which keeps our low end wages very low! which encourages Americans to NOT work(for low pay)! Which puts more and more americans on entitlements. "Safety nets that have become hammocks"!!!! Unsustainable government for the win!!!

Like i said, this is the ODDEST of marriages. The poorest of the poor married to the billionaire corporations that want the cheap labor. wake da fuq up!

[gtn130]

Only 4% of DACA recipients have graduated college in contrast to 18% of American citizens of the same age cohort (15-32) who have a college degree. DACA recipients have one quarter the college graduation rate of the regular population. College graduates make almost double the money of high school graduates.

What's your point here?

They go to college less frequently because they're poor. Poor people are the ones who, you know, emigrate.

The point is that the Center for American Progress analysis on future GDP contributions of DACA recipients is likely to be wildly optimistic because it absurdly assumes that DACA recipients will earn as much as average US citizens even though they are much less likely to be college graduates.

Even if we say that's true, why would people with high earning potential leave their country? The entire reason to emigrate is because your country is in shambles and can't offer you a safe and healthy existence.

Trump is actually correct that dirt poor countries are ****holes, but it's for reasons that have nothing to do with the quality of its people. Haiti is a hilarious example since they're poor largely because they've been exploited by wealthy and powerful nations like the US and France!

Meanwhile we have MAGA derpers demanding the coal mining jobz get 'brought back' because they're owed them by birthright and anyone born in Haiti is simply SOL and should go bootstrap their way to success even though everyone in MAGAland is doing the exact opposite.

Oh, and when those SOL Haitians try to come to the US and BOOTSTRAP? They're told to GTFO because they're low-earning poors.

[nate33]

What's your point here?

They go to college less frequently because they're poor. Poor people are the ones who, you know, emigrate.

The point is that the Center for American Progress analysis on future GDP contributions of DACA recipients is likely to be wildly optimistic because it absurdly assumes that DACA recipients will earn as much as average US citizens even though they are much less likely to be college graduates.

Even if we say that's true, why would people with high earning potential leave their country? The entire reason to emigrate is because your country is in shambles and can't offer you a safe and healthy existence.

Trump is actually correct that dirt poor countries are ****holes, but it's for reasons that have nothing to do with the quality of its people. Haiti is a hilarious example since they're poor largely because they've been exploited by wealthy and powerful nations like the US and France!

Meanwhile we have MAGA derpers demanding the coal mining jobz get 'brought back' because they're owed them by birthright and anyone born in Haiti is simply SOL and should go bootstrap their way to success even though everyone in MAGAland is doing the exact opposite.

Oh, and when those SOL Haitians try to come to the US and BOOTSTRAP? They're told to GTFO because they're low-earning poors.

Yup. Every s***hole country is that way because of mean old whitey. It's never their own fault. Nevermind that the Dominican Republic is in much better shape while living on the same freaking island with the same freaking natural resources. The island is practically a case study in why people and culture matter. The GDP per capita of the Dominican Republic is 10 times that of Haiti!

[Zonkerbl]

The number they are using is $60k per capita per year.

Ok, so I have some questions for you:
1) DACA beneficiaries are relatively young. What is the GDP per capita contribution of Americans of a comparable age group to DACA recipients?
2) GDP per capita is correlated with standardized test scores. I hypothesize that families who take the expensive and dangerous journey to America are relatively more resourceful than the average incumbent American and this should be reflected in their lifetime GDP contribution and their test scores. What is the average SAT score of a DACA beneficiary compared to an incumbent US citizen?
3) 87% of DACA recipients participate in the labor force. The aggregate labor force participation rate in the US is about 63%. What is the labor force participation rate for an incumbent US citizen of the same age?

1.) I don't know the answer to that. I do know that they obtain a college degree just one quarter as frequently as US citizens of the same age cohort.

2.) DACA recipients are 79% from Mexico and most of the rest are from Central America. They're Hispanics, essentially, presumably about the same quality as other Hispanics and their descendants who have immigrated here in the past. We do know that Hispanics trail the national average by about 100 points (on the 400-1600 point scale)

We also know that the average IQ of Mexico is about 88, with Central American being a bit lower:


3.) To be clear, that 87% essentially counts those in school as being in the labor force. If the same method is applied to the U.S. Citizen population, I would expect their numbers to be equivalent or higher.

Average IQ of central American countries is *not* acceptable - my premise is we are skimming off the top. Also it is well established that IQ tests were explicitly designed to give higher scores to white kids, at least when it was first invented in the early 20th Century. I doubt they've improved it much since then.

Yeah SAT scores are tricky - once you've been here a few generations you are "incumbent" and thus not eligible for comparison. But the newly arrived immigrants aren't native English speakers, so of course their SAT scores will be lower. Also SAT scores are subject to the same cultural bias that IQ tests are. Nevertheless I think you could compare the SAT scores of DACA recipients to the native Hispanic population - if they are higher, then you know we've skimmed off the cream of the crop. Not that I'm saying DACA recipients have to take an SAT test to be eligible for benefits, ugh. I'm just trying to put doubt in your mind though. It's not enough to say "ugh these people are brown let's not let them in." Are these the most entrepreneurially talented members of their respective population? Will they create jobs?

[nate33]

Average IQ of central American countries is *not* acceptable - my premise is we are skimming off the top. Also it is well established that IQ tests were explicitly designed to give higher scores to white kids, at least when it was first invented in the early 20th Century. I doubt they've improved it much since then.

It is well established by who? Why would whites devise a test where they score lower than East Asians and Ashkenazi Jews?

Yeah SAT scores are tricky - once you've been here a few generations you are "incumbent" and thus not eligible for comparison. But the newly arrived immigrants aren't native English speakers, so of course their SAT scores will be lower. Also SAT scores are subject to the same cultural bias that IQ tests are. Nevertheless I think you could compare the SAT scores of DACA recipients to the native Hispanic population - if they are higher, then you know we've skimmed off the cream of the crop. Not that I'm saying DACA recipients have to take an SAT test to be eligible for benefits, ugh. I'm just trying to put doubt in your mind though. It's not enough to say "ugh these people are brown let's not let them in." Are these the most entrepreneurially talented members of their respective population? Will they create jobs?

I'm open to the possibility that DACA recipients are somehow the cream of the crop. I'd just like to see some proof. Also, aren't most of the Hispanics currently here also the cream of the crop? Why would we expect DACA immigrants to outperform current cream-of-the-crop Hispanic immigrants and children and grandchildren of cream-of-the-crop Hispanic immigrants?

[gtn130]

Yup. Every s***hole country is that way because of mean old whitey. It's never their own fault. Nevermind that the Dominican Republic is in much better shape while living on the same freaking island with the same freaking natural resources. The island is practically a case study in why people and culture matter. The GDP per capita of the Dominican Republic is 10 times that of Haiti!

Great take, dude. Here's an expert on Haiti to school you:

Read on Twitter

@KatzOnEarth
In order to do a victory lap around the GDP difference between, say, Norway and Haiti, you have to know nothing about the history of the world.

That includes, especially, knowing nothing real about the history of the United States.

@KatzOnEarth
You have to first of all understand nothing about the Trans-Atlantic Slave trade.

You have to not understand anything about the systematic theft of African bodies and lives. And you have to not understand how that theft built the wealth we have today in Europe and the US.

@KatzOnEarth
You’d have to not know that the French colony that became Haiti provided the wealth that fueled the French Empire — and 2/3 of the sugar and 3/4 of the coffee that Europe consumed.

You’d have to not know how rich slave traders got off their system of kidnapping, rape, and murder

@KatzOnEarth
You’d have to not realize that Haiti was founded in a revolution against that system, and that European countries and the United States punished them for their temerity by refusing to recognize or trade with them for decades.

@KatzOnEarth
You’d have to not know that Haiti got recognition by agreeing to pay 150 million gold francs to French landowners in compensation for their own freedom.

You’d have to not know that Haiti paid it, and that it took them almost all of the 19th century to do so.

@KatzOnEarth
You’d then have to not know that Haiti was forced to borrow some money to pay back that ridiculous debt, some of it from banks in the United States.

And you’d have to not know that in 1914 those banks got President Wilson to send the US Marines to empty the Haitian gold reserve

@KatzOnEarth
.@RichLowry would have to not know about the chaos that ensued, and the 19-year US military occupation of Haiti that followed (at a time when the US was invading and occupying much of Central America and the Caribbean).

@KatzOnEarth
He and others have to not know about the rest of the 20th century either—the systematic theft and oppression, US support for dictators and coups, the US invasions of Haiti in 1994-95 and 2004 ...

@KatzOnEarth
... the use of the IMF and World Bank to impose new loans and destructive trade policies, including the now-famous rice tariff gutting that Bill Clinton apologized for but had been a policy since Reagan, and on and on ...

@KatzOnEarth
And you’d have to understand nothing about why the US (under George W. Bush) pushed for and paid a quarter of the UN “stabilization mission” that did little but keep Haiti’s presidents from being overthrown and kill 10,000 people by dumping cholera in its rivers. Etc.

@KatzOnEarth
In short, you’d have to know nothing about WHY Haiti is poor (or El Salvador in kind), and WHY the United States (and Norway) are wealthy.

But far worse than that, you’d have to not even be interested in asking the question.

And that’s where they really tell on themselves ...

@KatzOnEarth
Because what they are showing is that they ASSUME that Haiti is just naturally poor, that it’s an inherent state borne of the corruption of the people there, in all senses of the word.

And let’s just say out loud why that is: It’s because Haitians are black.

@KatzOnEarth
Racists have needed Haiti to be poor since it was founded. They pushed for its poverty. They have celebrated its poverty. They have tried to profit from its poverty.

They wanted it to be a shithole. And they still do.

@KatzOnEarth
If Haiti is a shithole, then they can say that black freedom and sovereignty are bad. They can hold it up as proof that white countries—and what’s whiter than Norway—are better, because white people are better.

They wanted that in 1804, and in 1915, and they want it now.

@KatzOnEarth
So if anyone tonight tries to trap you in a contest of “where would you rather live”—or “what about cholera” or “yeah but isn’t poverty bad?”—ask them what they know about how things got that way.

And then ask them why they’re ok with it.

[FAH1223]

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

The Brits, Germans, French, Russians, Chinese and the Iranians are going to hold firm on the JCPOA Iran Nuclear Deal.

So the US breaks the deal in May, the other five nations will simply continue economically trading with Iran. In fact, France might like it so Iran buys their manufactured planes versus US Boeing manufactured planes!

[gtn130]

@KatzOnEarth
Because what they are showing is that they ASSUME that Haiti is just naturally poor, that it’s an inherent state borne of the corruption of the people there, in all senses of the word.

And let’s just say out loud why that is: It’s because Haitians are black.

Where have I heard that thesis before?? *thinking face emoji*

Yup. Every s***hole country is that way because of mean old whitey. It's never their own fault. Nevermind that the Dominican Republic is in much better shape while living on the same freaking island with the same freaking natural resources. The island is practically a case study in why people and culture matter. The GDP per capita of the Dominican Republic is 10 times that of Haiti!