2021 Draft thread. Woo! 15th pick here we come! Hoo. Ray.

[NatP4]

Yes please on Jay Wright. He’s at the very top of my list for a new coach.

[pcbothwel]

Where is WizD when you need him? Lol
His knees are REALLY concerning. Every time his foot touches the floor his knee ends up inside of his toes. EVERY.TIME.
I love him as a prospect, but this has to be addressed. His hips must be really weak. He's an MCL injury waiting to happen

[doclinkin]

Where is WizD when you need him? Lol
His knees are REALLY concerning. Every time his foot touches the floor his knee ends up inside of his toes. EVERY.TIME.
I love him as a prospect, but this has to be addressed. His hips must be really weak. He's an MCL injury waiting to happen

He needs big league trainers. Wiz player development guy David Adkins is pretty good at developing players and re-building their biomechanics to make them more efficient.

But watch footage of MJ, he was pigeon toed his whole career with a far higher impact stress level on take off and landing. He proved pretty durable once he had the right trainer working with him on micro movements and core strength and all.

Not dismissing the concern, Queta has taken a few injuries in games so far. The work ethic his stats display though suggest that once he has the right training staff he may iron out some bad habits and build functional strength to support that. Check how Brad's body has changed over the years, and how he used to be penciled in for injuries every year, but has become one of the more durable players in the league. I'm not too concerned about a player who hasn't yet started work with bigs, especially since as a Big his game is more about footwork and length than high flying. Even hobbled he should be able to do what he does well. Most of his blocks are from length and positioning. Hopefully his injury scares will motivate him to put in the right kind of work with the team. We hired a sports medicine guru for this very reason.

[Ruzious]

Patrick Ewing was also pigeon-toed. Granted, he had some knee injuries, but he managed to overcome them for years.

[Ruzious]

Okay I want a trade back to pick up Queta and Butler and picks. I'd take our #7/8 for OKC's #17 and #31 and whatever else I could wrangle. Though I'd be nervous about the Spurs at #21. I expect the mocks will change after the combine, Queta looks like he will measure long. I think he is a dark horse for some team to 'reach' for him in the first round. I wouldn't hate if that was us. Maybe getting Davion Mitchell instead of Butler.

I love it. I'm leaning more towards Bassey than Queta, but I'll probably change a bunch of times before the draft. Love to get Butler, but I'll settle for Mitchell. Bassey and Butler would make me happy. They both have that winning step on your neck mentality.

[pcbothwel]

Again, Love him... but the knees are concerning. But I would definitely take the flier given his projection as a passer and defender.
- Trade Bertans at the deadline to NY for 2021 DET 2nd, 2023 DET 2nd, and another 2nd in 24/25
- Pick 6/7: Trade back to 9/10 with NOP/OKC and get their 2nds.

10: Butler / Springer
31: Queta
35: Dosunmu / Mathurin
42: Roko Prkacin (Stash)

- Use Full MLE to bring back Otto

Russ / Butler / Winston
Beal / Mathews / Mathurin
Deni / Otto / Bonga
Rui / Otto / Bonga
Bryant / Wagner / Queta

[Ruzious]

Again, Love him... but the knees are concerning. But I would definitely take the flier given his projection as a passer and defender.
- Trade Bertans at the deadline to NY for 2021 DET 2nd, 2023 DET 2nd, and another 2nd in 24/25
- Pick 6/7: Trade back to 9/10 with NOP/OKC and get their 2nds.

10: Butler / Springer
31: Queta
35: Dosunmu / Mathurin
42: Roko Prkacin (Stash)

- Use Full MLE to bring back Otto

Russ / Butler / Winston
Beal / Mathews / Mathurin
Deni / Otto / Bonga
Rui / Otto / Bonga
Bryant / Wagner / Queta

Good call on Mathurin - seems like a very interesting prospect.

[Dat2U]

Looking at the top 5, Kuminga is the only one with a chance of busting but even with him, you see where he could be successful if he continues to add skill and polish to his game. Top 4 are all incredibly safe picks. Jalen who's #4 looks like he'll have no problem getting 20+ on most nights. Top 3 is simply power-packed. An elite wing, elite big and elite guard... you really can't go wrong.



I think my Tier 1 may have 3 guys on it. That would be a first.

[NatP4]

I think it’s possible that any of the teams selecting 24-30 would move the pick for a guy like Bertans. We could still go 1-7 in the next 8 before the deadline and sell and pick in the 3-6 range. If Suggs is gone I’m still looking at moving down for both OKC picks in the 8-18 range. Then I have a list in that range in this order, same probably goes for a pick in the 24-30 range.

1. Wagner
2. Butler
3. Springer
4. Queta
5. Jackson
6. Duarte

I’m buying one of the numerous surely to be available early 2nds from the Nets, Pels, Thunder, Pistons, or Knicks. At that spot you are CERTAIN to have one of these available:

1. Queta
2. Duarte
3. Ayayi
4. Dosunmu
5. Mathurin
6. Livers
7. Wieskamp

[nate33]

If Suggs is gone I’m still looking at moving down for both OKC picks in the 8-18 range.

FWIW, OKC is going to try and trade away all of their good vets: George Hill and Horford, to be sure. They'll commit to tanking over the second half of the season and end up picking pretty high. Probably higher than us. I don't think that trade down is going to work.

[pcbothwel]

I think it’s possible that any of the teams selecting 24-30 would move the pick for a guy like Bertans.

A disagree here. Portland has traded their pick already. And the Clippers, Lakers, Suns, Bucks, Jazz and Nets have all traded their 2022 pick, so they cant trade their 2021 pick before the draft.
Out of the 9 teams picking 22-30m only 76ers (28) and Nuggets (22, but 3 games out of 27th) can do anything.
- Nuggets already have Porter, Millsap, and Green shooting a combined 42% on 12 3's per game.
- 76ers seem like the best/only bet. They would be a good fit, but hey would have to move Green to make it work.

Maybe an outside shot that NY could trade that Mavs pick now that they are starting to win (10-3). But doubt it.

[NatP4]

Good call, didn’t realize all of those teams had already moved their 2022 pick.

[nate33]

Wasserman has come out with his Mock Draft:

Read on Twitter

He has Jalen Green going 2nd. His top 10 are:

1. Cunningham
2. Green
3. Mobley
4. Suggs
5. Kuminga
6. Jalen Johnson
7. Keon Johnson
8. Moody
9. Bouknight
10. Barnes

That top 5 seems pretty accurate to me. It's not how I'd rank them based on our needs, but it's a pretty good guess on how they'll go in the actual draft.

[NatP4]

That’s what I anticipate. 5-10 is a massive swing and a miss. No thanks.

[nate33]

Yeah parsing stats for defensive effect is tricky to translate. The one stat that seems to carry over from NCAA to the NBA (and NCAA to Euro ball but not vice versa) is defensive rebounding relative to position. And it seems to be a good indicator of defense in general. That is: a 1G who tends to rebound opponent misses better than other Point Guards will commonly prove a solid defender at the next level.

Shooting guards are tricky. You have to compare them to SF's, the NCAA gets by with many undersized gunners who simply don't pass well enough to be termed PGs so they are designated as off ball players. But a guard who rebounds well relative to Small Forwards often proves to be one of the better defenders at the next level. Even on the perimeter.

Ditto SFs vs Power Forwards. However, here I start looking at other ball smarts metrics. Forwards and centers have more opportunities to catch missed bounces, so in some cases with front court players their stats are less about reading the floor and team positioning, and more about simply being taller when the ball falls near them. If a SF both rebounds well and has good assist numbers, I trust it better. Here I start to cross reference defensive rebounds with blocks, and steals. For wing players a high steal rate often means a player is willing to gamble out of position. The steals you want are on-ball steals, players who can harass the guy in front of them. Wing players have more opportunities to try to steal the ball on a lateral movement by jumping the pass, but it tends not to be a good indicator of NBA level defense and can indicate a guy who is a showboat type player, more willing to be flashy than team oriented.

Steals by bigs though do seem to translate to good defense. C/PFs who both rebound well on the defensive end, and who steal the ball at times are generally excellent defenders at the next level. Better even than those who block shots. Often the notable shot blockers are the equivalent to the wing players with steals. Shotblockers tend to be able to do it at the lower level in part by superior size alone. This is where you get tall bouncy athletic marvels who have no idea what is happening on the court at the next level and take a while to develop (JaVale, Wiseman). Here you often get the overtall but underweight players that can't keep up laterally with the P/R plays they will be forcefed 10-20 times a game in the NBA. Blocks look pretty in the stat sheet for bigs, but are mostly fluff if they don't have other indicators. But Steals by forwards who rebound well on defense are both rare and valuable. These are big mobile heads-up players who can really disrupt opponent game plans. To me these are the true unicorns, more rare and precious than bigs who can shoot from outside. Unibrow, Kawhi, Draymond, etc.

For bigs the metric that seems to indicate a solid positional defender (when cross-referenced against defensive boards) even more than blocks, are assist ratios. Players who can pass well from from the interior while posting solid rebounding measures tend to be guys who understand team concepts. If they don't turn it over they tend to have good hands. As pass dependent players they get fewer opportunities to show their passing, so you may be only looking at 3 or so assists per game. But when you tag that sort of player then you generally can expect smart play at both ends. Even if they are not athletic supertalents. They prove smart enough to anticipate and defend by good positioning. This is one stat that does seem to translate from Euroball, at least in low post Bigs (not the new breed unicorns who want to be more KD than KG). Marc and Pau were solid in this. Joakim Noah and AL Horford were two others. Unibrow of course.

After ID'ing a player that looks good statistically I will look at their game log. Do they play well against their toughest and literal biggest competition. If so they are a good bet to do it at the next level, no matter their height. This is where your Draymond and Paul Millsapp players will show up. Guys who can rack defensive boards even if matched against taller opposition in the NCAA will be able to do so at the NBA level as well. They may not score as efficiently down low, so they better have good FT% and a face up jumper (you can build a 3FG from that, but it is not necessary) but it is a good place to steal a solid productive player late, since most teams will overlook an underheight Big. Regardless of their stats.

Lastly I look at school. Some teams just teach good habits. Virginia and Villanova seem to churn out defenders whose habits translate to the NBA and play bigger than their position or measurements.

Anyway. This is the rough sketch on how to find late draft steals. I'm not sure if it translates at the top of the draft since one thing I look at is if a player develops from one year to the next. That is a 'hard work' indicator, which seems to really be the place you get best value from your draftees. If you select a guy who has a talent for working their tail off and improving, that is as rare as 7 foot height and long wingspan. It's just harder for me to see in freshman and highschool ballers. I lack the "sawces" to scout them. (Where's my curly fries...)

Applying these metrics to guys in the top of the draft, I can't help but notice Jalen Johnson of Duke.

He checks almost all the boxes. He's an excellent rebounder, but also racks up assists, steals and blocks. His foul rate and turnover rate are a bit high, but he is a freshman, after all.

In conference play, he is posting per 40:
21.9 points
10.1 rebounds
4.8 assists
2.4 steals
1.7 blocks

He is also shooting 55% from 3, but on just 2 attempts per 40 and with a 68% FT% so I won't get too excited.

[NatP4]

He also quit on Duke, just like he quit on his high school team.

That’s a sample size of 9 conference games. I see way too much Jabari Parker in his game.

[Ruzious]

He also quit on Duke, just like he quit on his high school team.

That’s a sample size of 9 conference games. I see way too much Jabari Parker in his game.

He had 2 tremendous games and was ordinary for the rest of the games. And because of how he left - along with the rest of his past - I think he slides all the way to the end of the 1st round.

But, he is very talented - like a poor man's Ben Simmons.

[DCZards]

Looking at the top 5, Kuminga is the only one with a chance of busting but even with him, you see where he could be successful if he continues to add skill and polish to his game. Top 4 are all incredibly safe picks. Jalen who's #4 looks like he'll have no problem getting 20+ on most nights. Top 3 is simply power-packed. An elite wing, elite big and elite guard... you really can't go wrong.

I think my Tier 1 may have 3 guys on it. That would be a first.

Agree with you on Kuminga. Of the top five, he clearly seems to have the most potential to be a bust…but he also has the raw skills and physical make-up to be a star.

I’ve watched several of Kuminga’s G-League games. One minute he’s clanging ill-advised jump shots. The next he’s using his quickness and length to take his man off the dribble and glide to the basket for an easy hoop a la Giannis.

If I’m drafting 5—and Cunningham, Green, Mobley and Suggs are off the board—I’m likely taking my chances with Kuminga.

[doclinkin]

Applying these metrics to guys in the top of the draft, I can't help but notice Jalen Johnson of Duke.

He checks almost all the boxes. He's an excellent rebounder, but also racks up assists, steals and blocks. His foul rate and turnover rate are a bit high, but he is a freshman, after all.

In conference play, he is posting per 40:
21.9 points
10.1 rebounds
4.8 assists
2.4 steals
1.7 blocks

He is also shooting 55% from 3, but on just 2 attempts per 40 and with a 68% FT% so I won't get too excited.

Productive freshmen are where you can steal great value. The younger they are when they are producing, the better. And they commonly lose minutes to older players so their counting stats don't look as impressive. You can get them lower down. On his negative stats: Turnovers and fouls are the 2 stats that readily improve.

That said he wouldn't have jumped out to me since his game logs show him coming up smallest against ranked teams.
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/gamelog/_/id/4701230/jalen-johnson
The talent may be there, but his games also don't show the steady improvement over the season I look for in freshmen. The fact that he left Koach K to hunt for his own personal development does hint to me he might be a problem in a team setting.

That said, if he falls, maybe he's a bargain.

BTW while defensive rebounding seems to translate, offensive boards are iffy. I tend to search just on the defensive end since those are able to be siphoned by smarts and positioning and anticipation. Some players hunt offensive boards while giving up transition defense, so if you have a prodigy on the offensive boards, well awesome, but it can be an indicator of low IQ play if their team is not also a defensive juggernaut.

[NatP4]

He also quit on Duke, just like he quit on his high school team.

That’s a sample size of 9 conference games. I see way too much Jabari Parker in his game.

He had 2 tremendous games and was ordinary for the rest of the games. And because of how he left - along with the rest of his past - I think he slides all the way to the end of the 1st round.

But, he is very talented - like a poor man's Ben Simmons.

One of which was against the mighty Coppin State.

He has a negative assist-turnover ratio. Simmons had something like 150 assists to 100 turnovers. That combined with far less defensive impact (almost a negative on D) would be the difference for me.

Add in the intangible questions and I’m not sure on Johnson. Of course, if he slips out of the top 10-15, you roll the dice forsure.

Also, I’m not sure how much stock you guys put into little things like this, but as a Notre dame/ACC fan, I watched plenty of Johnson, he quite literally flexes or stares down defenders after every single made layup. It’s a huge red flag to me in terms of maturity.