Bradley Beal - Part IV

[doclinkin]

So far... I like this version of Brad. Obviously, turnovers are high, but I expect those to decrease as the team gets used to Brad and he gets used to the new guys. Some of his turnovers have come from players not expecting him to pass... that will sort itself out. The main thing is, Brad distributing the ball more is good for the Wizards. We have a lot of guys who can score now, so we don't need Brad scoring 30+ and taking 20+ shots. I think this version of Brad can be more efficient on offense than the guy we saw last season. I also feel like he's been more engaged on defense. Early returns on that front: three blocks so far in two games. Clearly its still early, but I'll be very interested to look at the defensive stats after 20 game or so and see if we can see any difference in Brad's success on that side of the ball. I think he can be a good defender, in the past he has just never really committed himself to the task. Here's hoping.

Right on all counts. One turnover was Rui setting a pick then rolling but forgetting to catch the ball when Beal passed it to him. He would have been wide open for the dunk.

And on defense, at least two of the turnovers amounted to nothing because Beal snuffed the play at the other end. Loved when he lost it on a telegraphed pass then on the breakaway blocked Ayo directly to Morris who fired it to Avdija for 3. He's taking responsibility for fixing his own mistakes.

Makes you wonder if there is a quarter billion dollars worth of intangibles and leadership he could show. That his version of being a max player is to be the best team player he can be. Leadership, dirty work, unselfish play, seriousness of purpose.

Ok, still not worth the $$ but he has a better chance of doing that than he does in carrying the load himself and dragging the whole team with him. On the other hand: it's game 2, vs injured teams. I like the focus though at least.

[nate33]

Spoiler:

So far... I like this version of Brad. Obviously, turnovers are high, but I expect those to decrease as the team gets used to Brad and he gets used to the new guys. Some of his turnovers have come from players not expecting him to pass... that will sort itself out. The main thing is, Brad distributing the ball more is good for the Wizards. We have a lot of guys who can score now, so we don't need Brad scoring 30+ and taking 20+ shots. I think this version of Brad can be more efficient on offense than the guy we saw last season. I also feel like he's been more engaged on defense. Early returns on that front: three blocks so far in two games. Clearly its still early, but I'll be very interested to look at the defensive stats after 20 game or so and see if we can see any difference in Brad's success on that side of the ball. I think he can be a good defender, in the past he has just never really committed himself to the task. Here's hoping.

Right on all counts. One turnover was Rui setting a pick then rolling but forgetting to catch the ball when Beal passed it to him. He would have been wide open for the dunk.

And on defense, at least two of the turnovers amounted to nothing because Beal snuffed the play at the other end. Loved when he lost it on a telegraphed pass then on the breakaway blocked Ayo directly to Morris who fired it to Avdija for 3. He's taking responsibility for fixing his own mistakes.

Makes you wonder if there is a quarter billion dollars worth of intangibles and leadership he could show. That his version of being a max player is to be the best team player he can be. Leadership, dirty work, unselfish play, seriousness of purpose.

Ok, still not worth the $$ but he has a better chance of doing that than he does in carrying the load himself and dragging the whole team with him. On the other hand: it's game 2, vs injured teams. I like the focus though at least.

I agree with both of you.

I like the way Brad has been playing so far. He is letting the game come to him and trusting his teammates. I haven't seen him force a bad shot yet. And he has been locked in on the defensive end - not a stopper or anything, but at least giving good effort. And he hasn't yet failed to get back on D because he was whining about a call.

[payitforward]

So far... I like this version of Brad. Obviously, turnovers are high, but I expect those to decrease as the team gets used to Brad and he gets used to the new guys. Some of his turnovers have come from players not expecting him to pass... that will sort itself out. The main thing is, Brad distributing the ball more is good for the Wizards. We have a lot of guys who can score now, so we don't need Brad scoring 30+ and taking 20+ shots. I think this version of Brad can be more efficient on offense than the guy we saw last season. I also feel like he's been more engaged on defense. Early returns on that front: three blocks so far in two games. Clearly its still early, but I'll be very interested to look at the defensive stats after 20 game or so and see if we can see any difference in Brad's success on that side of the ball. I think he can be a good defender, in the past he has just never really committed himself to the task. Here's hoping.

Well, it'd be kind of hard NOT to like the way Brad is shooting the ball! He's made 15 of his 22 2-point attempts & all 3 of his FTAs. He's only 3 for 9 shooting the 3 -- but even if that isn't particularly good, it's better than last year & anyway who cares? The guy is posting a .650 TS%.

But, just as the 8 turnovers in 2 games isn't something to worry about, because it's early days, so too the terrific shooting requires that same caveat.

In any case, so far so good!

[Dark Faze]

I can't say I'm too optimistic. High TS has come at the cost of abandoning the 3pt shot, and he's a high turnover player. I just think things are trending in the wrong direction.

[FAH1223]

bad luck

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

[Frichuela]

bad luck

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

WTF

[montestewart]

bad luck

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

WTF

Basketball Reference should add a stat column right next to the ejections column, “Games missed due to Covid protocols.”

[nate33]

Bradley Beal is having arguably his best season as a pro.

The way I look at it, there are two versions of Beal, the first is the efficient, off-ball co-primary-option scorer alongside Wall with a USG% around 26; and the 2nd is as the less-efficient, higher usage primary option scorer we saw over the last 3 seasons with a USG% around 32.

Going into this season, I was really worried that Beal was stuck in "primary scorer" mode; and that it would really be a problem because he just isn't good enough to score efficiently like that. But I am pleasantly surprised to see him re-kindle his old role as a more efficient, less high-usage scorer. I think that's where Beal is at his best. He isn't worth a supermax to be sure, but at least he is contributing in a manner that is most conducive to sustainable winning.

In Beal's best "co-primary scorer" year, which was 2016-17, he averaged 32.7 points, 4.9 assists and 2.9 turnovers per 100 on a TS% of .604. This year, he is averaging 31.4 points, 7.5 assists and 3.8 turnovers per 100 possessions on a TS% of .620. I'd say they're about equal. Current Beal's scoring is slightly more efficient on just slightly lower volume. And Current Beal is generating an extra 2.5 assists at a cost of 0.9 turnovers, which is probably a wash. So basically, they're the same player, only I think Current Beal is defending a little better than 2016-17 Beal. BPM has them at about the same (3.3 then, 3.2 now). So at worst, he has essentially tied his production from his career best year as a co-primary scorer.

Comparing current Beal to his peak year as a primary scorer is more difficult because their roles are different. Peak primary option Beal was in 2021-22 when he posted 40.3 points, 5.7 assists and 4.0 turnovers per 100 possessions on a TS% of .593. If we analyze it PIF style, we would say that it took him an extra 9.2 possessions (relative to current Beal) to score an extra 8.9 points, which means his marginal extra attempts came at a substantially below league average efficiency. And he is setting up others less often as well. So it's fair to argue that both Current Beal and 2016-17 Beal were better than 2020-21 Beal.

So basically, Current Beal is producing at, or slightly better than Beal's best season of his career: 2016-17.

Note, I didn't really bother comparing rebounds, because I think rebounding for a guard is very much dependent on scheme and teammates. Beal is pulling down fewer boards this year than the last couple of years, but that's mostly because the team has very good rebounding at both forward positions, and they never play small ball with Beal at the 3.

[doclinkin]

Yeah, that aligns with my impression of Beal. That at his best he is the alpha of betas. A top quality complementary player, who is at his best when on the team with a player who is clearly better or draws more attention. This is in part why other stars want to recruit him, a smart player that they know can fit next to a true star. He still has some primary scorer habits that stall the offense here, but does share scoring duties with KP and Kuz at least. I expect on another team with an establish perennial all-star we would see even more of that complementary play. The difference is here he is regarded as the franchise and at times tries to live up to it. Late game hero ball is actually when he is at his worst though. If there was another primary scoring option in these circumstances he could fall back on being just a damn good player.

[AFM]

Fella sounding like andrew tate out here talking about alphas and betas

[payitforward]

Bradley Beal is having arguably his best season as a pro....

Agree 100% - & I'd say it's closer to "clearly" than "arguably"

&, although 2016-17 was obviously his "breakthrough" season, I'd say 2018-19 was even better overall. His TS% was down a bit, but his assists & rebounds were both up by so much that the overall net gain is significant.

Of course, it's possible to say that some of this was b/c John was out that year, but honestly I don't think that matters. For one thing, it doesn't guarantee those improvements! They weren't automatic; Brad still had to do the things he did!

What makes this year so special, OTOH, is that he's doing both so well: both his scoring efficiency & his contribution to the other aspects of the game (above all the rebounding & assists). I know you prefer to ignore those things (or maybe "down-play" would be more accurate), but I don't see a reason to -- after all, they do affect the game, & overall they too show an improved player. Plus they balance out the fact that he is turning the ball over more than in '16-17 (i.e. on the same usage).

In any case, whether one thinks that '16-17 was his best previous year, or '18-19, this year is significantly better overall! Thus...

...In ... 2016-17, he averaged 32.7 points, 4.9 assists and 2.9 turnovers per 100 on a TS% of .604. This year, he is averaging 31.4 points, 7.5 assists and 3.8 turnovers per 100 possessions on a TS% of .620. ....an extra 2.5 assists at a cost of 0.9 turnovers, which is probably a wash. So basically, ... Current Beal is producing at, or slightly better than .... 2016-17...

"Slightly" recalls the word "arguably" in your first sentence, which I quoted above.

Again, this leaves out his better rebounding (you can think I over-value rebounding, but surely it's not altogether irrelevant!). You have your reasons, of course, writing that you

...didn't bother comparing rebounds, because (you) think rebounding for a guard is very much dependent on scheme and teammates....

I wouldn't deny the thought 100% -- there's something to it.
Yet, many other aspects of the game are also that way! Maybe only FT% is really entirely independent of "scheme and teammates"!

For that matter, I think it's also worth mentioning his slightly increased steals, his slightly reduced fouls, & the kind of strange fact that he is blocking shots at 2.5 times the rate of '16-17. To me, a string of incidental improvements of this kind may very well reflect a guy whose BBIQ has improved a fair amount since 6 years ago.

Veteran smarts you might call it. & maybe ditto the fact that:

...Current Beal is defending a little better than 2016-17 Beal.

In all, it's great to see Brad having a career year -- & all the more, of course, after the down season of '21-22.

[FAH1223]

Read on Twitter

[nate33]

Read on Twitter

?s=20&t=pN28U7lw14EhJfiNz4C6OQ

I was looking at the clutch numbers on this over his recent career. They're a mixed bag. These are his per-36 minute numbers in the clutch (last 3 minutes, +/- 5 points) in the post John Wall era:

2022-23 35.3 points, .723 TS%, 8.2 turnovers,
2021-22 27.3 points, .527 TS%, 7.0 turnovers
2020-21 44.7 points, .655 TS%, 3.7 turnovers
2019-20 42.7 points, .515 TS%, 4.0 turnovers
2018-19 31.5 points, .566 TS%, 4.6 turnovers

The turnovers this year are insanely bad, but at least he has been a very efficient scorer. Overall, they cancel each other out so that Beal has scored 1.08 points per possession. So basically he comes away with a bucket 54% of the time. That's not bad, but not really great either. A normal NBA team scores about 56% of the time. I suppose one must account for offensive rebounds generated by teams being out of position collapsing on Beal. It's hard to account for that on an individual basis, but perhaps that 54% scoring efficiency estimate I gave for Beal is a modest underestimation.

Last year, he was a complete disaster in the clutch, a human tank. Words can barely describe how bad he was.

In 2020-21, he was quite good. He drew a ton of fouls which boosted his TS% to well above league average, and his turnovers were under control, possibly due to Russ being the primary ball handler (although the scoring output would suggest that Beal was handling the rock quite a bit).

In 2019-20, he was terrible. His FG% was a ghastly .353, but he pulled his TS% up to not-awful levels because he got to the line at will (16.7 FTA's). It was an era when the refs rewarded Beal for his attacks at the rim.

In 2018-19, he played a lot alongside either Wall or Peak Satornansky, so the volume is down a bit and the efficiency up to reasonable levels. The turnovers are still quite high. Overall, still below league average efficiency

Overall, I'd say his scoring efficiency is much better than my recollection. I had an impression that he was always really bad in the clutch, but he actually had some decent years. He was good 2 years ago, and has been fairly solid this year. The other years were bad.

[Coach76]

Do regular/casual fans like Beal?

[FAH1223]

Watch on YouTube

[nate33]

Watch on YouTube

Gilbert Arenas is a national treasure.

[doclinkin]

Watch on YouTube

Coach Gil. I think he will be good if anyone gives him a chance on their staff. Yeah he's a wild card. But he does see the game clearly.

[gambitx777]

Watch on YouTube

Coach Gil. I think he will be good if anyone gives him a chance on their staff. Yeah he's a wild card. But he does see the game clearly.

He's a brilliant game mind. Like when you hear him talk about the game he just gets it. Like when he talks about switching he's like why didn't tall do this. When he's talking about double teams when he's talking about scoring. I'd love love love to see ya pull a Jeff Saturday lol and just give him the job when we eventually fire JR.

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

[payitforward]

Watch on YouTube

Gilbert Arenas is a national treasure.

I've only watched half of this session, but you are so very right!

What a guy! What a basketball mind, what a clever talker/thinker, what a sense of humor!

You watch him, & you think... forget basketball -- why doesn't this guy have a morning show on a major network?

[payitforward]

Just watched the rest of the video, & it is incredibly entertaining. Gilbert is incredibly entertaining! He could be on 2 hours a day, & you'd never want to miss an episode.

Btw, I don't know what made anyone upset about Brad describing his process in free agency. All he did was describe the reality he faced. Where's the problem??