Nick Young traded to Clippers/McGee to Denver/Nene to DC

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I respect your insight, WizTom. Thank you for taking the time.

That was a HOF post!

[Nivek]

So, I asked one of my stat buddies to run Nene through his "statistical doppleganger" machine. MikeG standardizes player stats, then compares them to his statistical database that reaches back to the olden days of basketball.

Below are the charts Mike generated.

For Nene THIS SEASON only. These are seasons most similar to what Nene has done so far this year. (.00 means statistically identical -- the closer to .00, the closer the similarity) Dunno about you, but that first name made me throw up in my mouth a little.

Code: Select all

diff    per-36 rates     yr     Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl    TO   Blk
.06   Andray Blatche    2011   17.3   9.4   2.2   3.1   1.7   3.0    .8
.07   Tom Gugliotta     1996   16.1   9.9   3.1   3.5   1.8   3.1   1.3
.12   Antoine Walker    2005   16.5   9.4   3.4   2.8   1.1   3.2    .7
.13   Alex English      1980   17.6   8.5   3.0   3.1   1.1   3.2    .9

.14   Maurice Lucas     1978   17.4  10.0   2.9   3.7   1.0   3.2    .9
.15   John Shumate      1978   15.6   8.7   2.2   2.7   1.2   3.1    .7
.15   Isaac Austin      1998   16.5   9.2   2.8   3.6    .9   3.2    .9
.15   Cliff Robinson    1985   17.2  10.5   2.7   3.6   1.0   3.1    .9
.15  Christian Laettner 1993   18.9  10.1   2.8   3.8   1.4   3.6   1.1

Career per 36-minute similars (among those with substantial careers -- weeding out low-minute guys)

Code: Select all

diff   career per36      Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl    TO   Blk
.03   Kenyon Martin     15.8   8.6   2.4   4.0   1.4   2.2   1.3
.12   Vern Mikkelsen    18.2   8.5   2.4   4.6   1.2   2.5   1.3
.12   Vin Baker         16.8   9.0   2.2   3.6    .8   2.5   1.1
.13   John Block        15.0   7.7   1.8   4.1   1.3   2.1    .8

.13   Joe Graboski      14.6   7.9   2.4   3.8   1.2   2.1   1.2
.13   Willie Naulls     16.9   8.0   1.8   3.8    .9   2.2   1.2
.13  Christian Laettner 16.2   8.6   3.1   3.8   1.3   2.7    .9
.14   Rudy LaRusso      15.1   7.5   2.2   3.8   1.1   2.1   1.1
.15   Ray Scott         14.4   9.0   2.5   3.5   1.2   2.2   1.4

Solid players.

Next, the same per-36 minute comparison, but using only players since 1978 (EDIT TO CLARIFY -- these are players since 1978 who DO NOT appear on the list above):

Code: Select all

diff   career per36    Sco    Reb   Ast    PF   Stl    TO   Blk
.17   LaPhonso Ellis   14.6   8.3   2.0   3.8    .9   2.0   1.0
.18   Antonio McDyess  15.6  10.3   1.6   4.0   1.0   2.0   1.4
.19   Mychal Thompson  15.0   9.1   2.5   3.5    .9   2.7   1.4
.19   Terry Cummings   19.3   9.3   2.2   4.0   1.3   2.3    .7
.19   Donyell Marshall 15.1   9.3   1.9   3.1   1.1   1.8   1.2

.20   Gerald Wallace   16.8   7.9   2.1   2.8   1.8   2.2   1.1
.21   Jerome Kersey    13.5   7.8   2.4   4.2   1.7   1.9   1.0
.22   Rasheed Wallace  17.7   8.1   2.1   3.4   1.1   1.7   1.5
.22   Jack Sikma       16.1  10.7   3.2   3.9   1.1   2.5   1.0
.23   Cedric Maxwell   15.6   7.8   2.5   3.4   1.0   2.7    .6

Last up are career equivalents -- players whose entire careers resemble Nene's career.

Code: Select all

diff   career equiv    ePts   eReb   eAst    PF    Stl    TO    Blk
.00   Nene Hilario     7639   4205   1007   1976   707   1093   499
.18   LaPhonso Ellis   7577   4289   1047   1992   445   1039   494
.28   Chris Morris     8396   3854   1236   1885   990   1248   587
.28   Terry Mills      7394   3943    931   1955   410    875   300
.29   Ken Norman       8291   4135   1341   1528   530   1189   436

.31   Ralph Sampson    7085   4420   1055   1755   431   1513   818
.31   Frank Brickowski 7455   3742   1381   2422   684   1460   302
.31   Don Kojis        8543   3753   1077   1983   754   1151   138
.32   Byron Beck       7567   4405    950   2487   547    969   145
.33 Quentin Richardson 7784   3854   1067   1536   607    858   146

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

So, I asked one of my stat buddies to run Nene through his "statistical doppleganger" machine. MikeG standardizes player stats, then compares them to his statistical database that reaches back to the olden days of basketball.

Below are the charts Mike generated.

For Nene THIS SEASON only. These are seasons most similar to what Nene has done so far this year. (.00 means statistically identical -- the closer to .00, the closer the similarity) Dunno about you, but that first name made me throw up in my mouth a little.

Code: Select all

diff    per-36 rates     yr     Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl    TO   Blk
.06   Andray Blatche    2011   17.3   9.4   2.2   3.1   1.7   3.0    .8
.07   Tom Gugliotta     1996   16.1   9.9   3.1   3.5   1.8   3.1   1.3
.12   Antoine Walker    2005   16.5   9.4   3.4   2.8   1.1   3.2    .7
.13   Alex English      1980   17.6   8.5   3.0   3.1   1.1   3.2    .9

.14   Maurice Lucas     1978   17.4  10.0   2.9   3.7   1.0   3.2    .9
.15   John Shumate      1978   15.6   8.7   2.2   2.7   1.2   3.1    .7
.15   Isaac Austin      1998   16.5   9.2   2.8   3.6    .9   3.2    .9
.15   Cliff Robinson    1985   17.2  10.5   2.7   3.6   1.0   3.1    .9
.15  Christian Laettner 1993   18.9  10.1   2.8   3.8   1.4   3.6   1.1

Career per 36-minute similars (among those with substantial careers -- weeding out low-minute guys)

Code: Select all

diff   career per36      Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl    TO   Blk
.03   Kenyon Martin     15.8   8.6   2.4   4.0   1.4   2.2   1.3
.12   Vern Mikkelsen    18.2   8.5   2.4   4.6   1.2   2.5   1.3
.12   Vin Baker         16.8   9.0   2.2   3.6    .8   2.5   1.1
.13   John Block        15.0   7.7   1.8   4.1   1.3   2.1    .8

.13   Joe Graboski      14.6   7.9   2.4   3.8   1.2   2.1   1.2
.13   Willie Naulls     16.9   8.0   1.8   3.8    .9   2.2   1.2
.13  Christian Laettner 16.2   8.6   3.1   3.8   1.3   2.7    .9
.14   Rudy LaRusso      15.1   7.5   2.2   3.8   1.1   2.1   1.1
.15   Ray Scott         14.4   9.0   2.5   3.5   1.2   2.2   1.4

Solid players.

Next, the same per-36 minute comparison, but using only players since 1978:

Code: Select all

diff   career per36    Sco    Reb   Ast    PF   Stl    TO   Blk
.17   LaPhonso Ellis   14.6   8.3   2.0   3.8    .9   2.0   1.0
.18   Antonio McDyess  15.6  10.3   1.6   4.0   1.0   2.0   1.4
.19   Mychal Thompson  15.0   9.1   2.5   3.5    .9   2.7   1.4
.19   Terry Cummings   19.3   9.3   2.2   4.0   1.3   2.3    .7
.19   Donyell Marshall 15.1   9.3   1.9   3.1   1.1   1.8   1.2

.20   Gerald Wallace   16.8   7.9   2.1   2.8   1.8   2.2   1.1
.21   Jerome Kersey    13.5   7.8   2.4   4.2   1.7   1.9   1.0
.22   Rasheed Wallace  17.7   8.1   2.1   3.4   1.1   1.7   1.5
.22   Jack Sikma       16.1  10.7   3.2   3.9   1.1   2.5   1.0
.23   Cedric Maxwell   15.6   7.8   2.5   3.4   1.0   2.7    .6

Last up are career equivalents -- players whose entire careers resemble Nene's career.

Code: Select all

diff   career equiv    ePts   eReb   eAst    PF    Stl    TO    Blk
.00   Nene Hilario     7639   4205   1007   1976   707   1093   499
.18   LaPhonso Ellis   7577   4289   1047   1992   445   1039   494
.28   Chris Morris     8396   3854   1236   1885   990   1248   587
.28   Terry Mills      7394   3943    931   1955   410    875   300
.29   Ken Norman       8291   4135   1341   1528   530   1189   436

.31   Ralph Sampson    7085   4420   1055   1755   431   1513   818
.31   Frank Brickowski 7455   3742   1381   2422   684   1460   302
.31   Don Kojis        8543   3753   1077   1983   754   1151   138
.32   Byron Beck       7567   4405    950   2487   547    969   145
.33 Quentin Richardson 7784   3854   1067   1536   607    858   146

Of those players, would you pay them $13M in today's NBA? Also, factor in the age and injury history of today's Nene onto those names. Then you can fully impact the effect of the deal.

I love the perpective WizTom shared. I just don't happen to agree.

I consider the bottom line like the bottom line of Nivek's comparison, above. Nice player but EG payed way too much.I beleive he is going to be stuck with a hard deal to move. Said this a few times now, but I'm not sure Seraphin isn't already just as good defensively at C as Nene.

We'll see how things turn out and I do wish for Nene to have great success.

[fugop]

So, I asked one of my stat buddies to run Nene through his "statistical doppleganger" machine. MikeG standardizes player stats, then compares them to his statistical database that reaches back to the olden days of basketball.

Below are the charts Mike generated.

For Nene THIS SEASON only. These are seasons most similar to what Nene has done so far this year. (.00 means statistically identical -- the closer to .00, the closer the similarity) Dunno about you, but that first name made me throw up in my mouth a little.

Code: Select all

diff    per-36 rates     yr     Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl    TO   Blk
.06   Andray Blatche    2011   17.3   9.4   2.2   3.1   1.7   3.0    .8
.07   Tom Gugliotta     1996   16.1   9.9   3.1   3.5   1.8   3.1   1.3
.12   Antoine Walker    2005   16.5   9.4   3.4   2.8   1.1   3.2    .7
.13   Alex English      1980   17.6   8.5   3.0   3.1   1.1   3.2    .9

.14   Maurice Lucas     1978   17.4  10.0   2.9   3.7   1.0   3.2    .9
.15   John Shumate      1978   15.6   8.7   2.2   2.7   1.2   3.1    .7
.15   Isaac Austin      1998   16.5   9.2   2.8   3.6    .9   3.2    .9
.15   Cliff Robinson    1985   17.2  10.5   2.7   3.6   1.0   3.1    .9
.15  Christian Laettner 1993   18.9  10.1   2.8   3.8   1.4   3.6   1.1

Career per 36-minute similars (among those with substantial careers -- weeding out low-minute guys)

Code: Select all

diff   career per36      Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl    TO   Blk
.03   Kenyon Martin     15.8   8.6   2.4   4.0   1.4   2.2   1.3
.12   Vern Mikkelsen    18.2   8.5   2.4   4.6   1.2   2.5   1.3
.12   Vin Baker         16.8   9.0   2.2   3.6    .8   2.5   1.1
.13   John Block        15.0   7.7   1.8   4.1   1.3   2.1    .8

.13   Joe Graboski      14.6   7.9   2.4   3.8   1.2   2.1   1.2
.13   Willie Naulls     16.9   8.0   1.8   3.8    .9   2.2   1.2
.13  Christian Laettner 16.2   8.6   3.1   3.8   1.3   2.7    .9
.14   Rudy LaRusso      15.1   7.5   2.2   3.8   1.1   2.1   1.1
.15   Ray Scott         14.4   9.0   2.5   3.5   1.2   2.2   1.4

Solid players.

Next, the same per-36 minute comparison, but using only players since 1978:

Code: Select all

diff   career per36    Sco    Reb   Ast    PF   Stl    TO   Blk
.17   LaPhonso Ellis   14.6   8.3   2.0   3.8    .9   2.0   1.0
.18   Antonio McDyess  15.6  10.3   1.6   4.0   1.0   2.0   1.4
.19   Mychal Thompson  15.0   9.1   2.5   3.5    .9   2.7   1.4
.19   Terry Cummings   19.3   9.3   2.2   4.0   1.3   2.3    .7
.19   Donyell Marshall 15.1   9.3   1.9   3.1   1.1   1.8   1.2

.20   Gerald Wallace   16.8   7.9   2.1   2.8   1.8   2.2   1.1
.21   Jerome Kersey    13.5   7.8   2.4   4.2   1.7   1.9   1.0
.22   Rasheed Wallace  17.7   8.1   2.1   3.4   1.1   1.7   1.5
.22   Jack Sikma       16.1  10.7   3.2   3.9   1.1   2.5   1.0
.23   Cedric Maxwell   15.6   7.8   2.5   3.4   1.0   2.7    .6

Last up are career equivalents -- players whose entire careers resemble Nene's career.

Code: Select all

diff   career equiv    ePts   eReb   eAst    PF    Stl    TO    Blk
.00   Nene Hilario     7639   4205   1007   1976   707   1093   499
.18   LaPhonso Ellis   7577   4289   1047   1992   445   1039   494
.28   Chris Morris     8396   3854   1236   1885   990   1248   587
.28   Terry Mills      7394   3943    931   1955   410    875   300
.29   Ken Norman       8291   4135   1341   1528   530   1189   436

.31   Ralph Sampson    7085   4420   1055   1755   431   1513   818
.31   Frank Brickowski 7455   3742   1381   2422   684   1460   302
.31   Don Kojis        8543   3753   1077   1983   754   1151   138
.32   Byron Beck       7567   4405    950   2487   547    969   145
.33 Quentin Richardson 7784   3854   1067   1536   607    858   146

Appreciate your effort here. You probably made a cut & paste error with the third chart, though, or mislabeled it. The post-1978 guys in your first per36 chart should also appear in the second, and the second starts with a diff just after the first.

The comparables don't seem to take efficiency into consideration -- please correct me if I'm wrong. Even this year, when Nene has been rather inefficient by his standards, he's got the highest eFG & TS% of that crowd.

http://bkref.com/tiny/dAIo0

Nene's efficiency numbers from four of the last five years blow those guys out of the water.

[JAR69]

Career per 36-minute similars (among those with substantial careers -- weeding out low-minute guys)

Code: Select all

diff   career per36      Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl    TO   Blk
.03   Kenyon Martin     15.8   8.6   2.4   4.0   1.4   2.2   1.3
.12   Vern Mikkelsen    18.2   8.5   2.4   4.6   1.2   2.5   1.3
.12   Vin Baker         16.8   9.0   2.2   3.6    .8   2.5   1.1
.13   John Block        15.0   7.7   1.8   4.1   1.3   2.1    .8

.13   Joe Graboski      14.6   7.9   2.4   3.8   1.2   2.1   1.2
.13   Willie Naulls     16.9   8.0   1.8   3.8    .9   2.2   1.2
.13  Christian Laettner 16.2   8.6   3.1   3.8   1.3   2.7    .9
.14   Rudy LaRusso      15.1   7.5   2.2   3.8   1.1   2.1   1.1
.15   Ray Scott         14.4   9.0   2.5   3.5   1.2   2.2   1.4

Solid players.

Next, the same per-36 minute comparison, but using only players since 1978:

Code: Select all

diff   career per36    Sco    Reb   Ast    PF   Stl    TO   Blk
.17   LaPhonso Ellis   14.6   8.3   2.0   3.8    .9   2.0   1.0
.18   Antonio McDyess  15.6  10.3   1.6   4.0   1.0   2.0   1.4
.19   Mychal Thompson  15.0   9.1   2.5   3.5    .9   2.7   1.4
.19   Terry Cummings   19.3   9.3   2.2   4.0   1.3   2.3    .7
.19   Donyell Marshall 15.1   9.3   1.9   3.1   1.1   1.8   1.2

.20   Gerald Wallace   16.8   7.9   2.1   2.8   1.8   2.2   1.1
.21   Jerome Kersey    13.5   7.8   2.4   4.2   1.7   1.9   1.0
.22   Rasheed Wallace  17.7   8.1   2.1   3.4   1.1   1.7   1.5
.22   Jack Sikma       16.1  10.7   3.2   3.9   1.1   2.5   1.0
.23   Cedric Maxwell   15.6   7.8   2.5   3.4   1.0   2.7    .6

I'm a little confused by these two charts. The first includes some post-1978 guys, but they don't show up on the second chart even though their similarity scores are higher. Is the second chart the continuation of the first chart?

And thanks for getting this. The similars listed on basketball-reference didn't make any sense.

[JAR69]

Last up are career equivalents -- players whose entire careers resemble Nene's career.

Code: Select all

diff   career equiv    ePts   eReb   eAst    PF    Stl    TO    Blk
.00   Nene Hilario     7639   4205   1007   1976   707   1093   499
.18   LaPhonso Ellis   7577   4289   1047   1992   445   1039   494
.28   Chris Morris     8396   3854   1236   1885   990   1248   587
.28   Terry Mills      7394   3943    931   1955   410    875   300
.29   Ken Norman       8291   4135   1341   1528   530   1189   436

.31   Ralph Sampson    7085   4420   1055   1755   431   1513   818
.31   Frank Brickowski 7455   3742   1381   2422   684   1460   302
.31   Don Kojis        8543   3753   1077   1983   754   1151   138
.32   Byron Beck       7567   4405    950   2487   547    969   145
.33 Quentin Richardson 7784   3854   1067   1536   607    858   146

Of those players, would you pay them $13M in today's NBA? Also, factor in the age and injury history of today's Nene onto those names. Then you can fully impact the effect of the deal.

I love the perpective WizTom shared. I just don't happen to agree.

I consider the bottom line like the bottom line of Nivek's comparison, above. Nice player but EG payed way too much.I beleive he is going to be stuck with a hard deal to move. Said this a few times now, but I'm not sure Seraphin isn't already just as good defensively at C as Nene.

We'll see how things turn out and I do wish for Nene to have great success.

This seems a bit unfair, if I understand the chart correctly. The comparison seems to be based on total points/rebounds/assists/etc. for an entire career. But Nene is only part way through his (as is Quentin Richardson). We can debate how far through, but unless this chart is showing numbers through a similar point in each player's career, the comparison is flawed.

[WizTom]

I would take the career numbers of any one of the 10 players listed in the per-36 minute comparison of players since 1978 over even the best years of the so-called Big Daddy Wookie. Yes, even future years. I just don't think the Wookie will ever amount to much because he's too enamored with his own hubris to ever be coachable. (That's my prediction.)

And not because I believe exclusively in statistics, but because 1 thru 10, those guys all, at one time or another, contributed to winning teams. None of them set the world on fire with their numbers, but I don't remember any of them having regular low-light knucklehead plays repeated endlessly in sports media either. (Granted, some played before ESPN and all its spin-offs, but my point holds in any case.)

Bottom line, for me anyway, is you can pull all the statistical analysis you want and it just doesn't hold water -- not the whole bucket. I know from my own earth-bound post playing experience that defending the lane (not "defending the rim"), putting a hand in a shooter's face, and boxing out bigger guys to get rebounds I had no business getting WORKS. Ask any height-challenged but successful post player and they'll tell you the same thing, from Keith Booth to Tommy Heinsohn to Charles Barkley to Dennis Rodman: hold your ground, keep your hands up, and use your lower torso to keep the big buy behind you. They may ultimately try to jump over you, but you won't get outplayed.

It's not brain surgery. But apparently it's beyond Wookery.

[queridiculo]

Yeah, quite the leap to interpret the data in that particular and to use it to make a judgement about the trade.

[DCZards]

"Everything that can be counted does not necessarily count; everything that counts cannot necessarily be counted." -- Albert Einstein

I just love that quote...especially when folks try to use stats and data to make concrete and final judgements and statements.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

"Everything that can be counted does not necessarily count; everything that counts cannot necessarily be counted." -- Albert Einstein

I just love that quote...especially when folks try to use stats and data to make concrete and final judgements and statements.

http://www.leadershipnow.com/leadershop ... cerpt.html

Here are some quotes by Bill Russell.

Each team, each player, is different. On team defense, it is absolutely necessary to know your opponents as well as your teammates. The way they move, they way they pass the ball, the way they move without the ball, are all part of what must be taken into account for the defense to work. On my team, because we were so conscious of team defense, we were especially mindful when we saw good defense thrown at us. The challenge to break it down was great, but the rewards when we were able to do it were oh so sweet.

The Knicks in the late 1960s, for example, had one of the best defensive units in the game. In 1969, we faced them in the play-offs after they had taken us six times in seven regular-season games. Before our series against them in the Eastern Divisional Finals started, I took home the statistics from the regular season and studied them.

As a player and a coach, I didn't look at statistics the way sportswriters and fans did. I wasn't interested in who scored most, got the most rebounds or assists. I was after clues that would let me see patterns, what it was that enabled the Knicks to succeed against us. The stats, this time, revealed something startling about the Knicks' defense.

Stats are only good if you generalize them and try to project them to the real world situations. He used them to see patterns, some 40 years ago.

All I try to do is see patterns and what they might reveal when I turn to stats. (Obviously, I can come to wrong conclusions at times.) I am convinced that successfully identify trends and best practices on defense is the secret of coaches like Tom Thibodeau's success.

[montestewart]

I was after clues that would let me see patterns, what it was that enabled the Knicks to succeed against us. The stats, this time, revealed something startling about the Knicks' defense.

That's all for this week's edition of What Do the Stats Reveal

BUT WHAT DID THE STATS REVEAL? WHAT DID THEY REVEAL???!!!

Tune in next week to What Do the Stats Reveal, same stat time, same stat channel

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Funny, monte. What Do the Stats Reveal ...

My first thought was if you look at stats long enough, you might start whispering, "I see dead people".

Another idea: Rorschach test-like stats in patterns clumped together to resemble inblots. You see anything from a cat to gladiator to the boogeyman. Maybe not as funny. ...

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Ruzious, I was wrong about George Karl showing favoritism and not managing minutes well. To make a long story short, Gallinari broke his thumb, thus big minutes for Wilson Chandler. My bad. I went back and edited the OP.

The score today: Ruzious=1 , CCJ=0

(Life's too short to keep score, just wanted to set the record straight.)

[tontoz]

Nick got the start tonight. I am hoping he does well there.

[Nivek]

"Everything that can be counted does not necessarily count; everything that counts cannot necessarily be counted." -- Albert Einstein

I just love that quote...especially when folks try to use stats and data to make concrete and final judgements and statements.

Yeah, because that's exactly what I did when I posted those numbers.

[Nivek]

Clarification on that post-1978 chart. Those are players since 1978 IN ADDITION to those on the previous list. My bad for not making that clear when I first posted. I blame the pain meds.

[Nivek]

This seems a bit unfair, if I understand the chart correctly. The comparison seems to be based on total points/rebounds/assists/etc. for an entire career. But Nene is only part way through his (as is Quentin Richardson). We can debate how far through, but unless this chart is showing numbers through a similar point in each player's career, the comparison is flawed.

It's standardized totals, and your point is a good one. Nene still has a few years left, and can move into better company by the end. These are guys who had similar careers TO THIS POINT in Nene's career. Nene still has some playing to do.

[GhostsOfGil]

Nick Young logged 16 minutes in the first half against IND. 4 points on 2-7 shooting so far.

[DCZards]

"Everything that can be counted does not necessarily count; everything that counts cannot necessarily be counted." -- Albert Einstein

I just love that quote...especially when folks try to use stats and data to make concrete and final judgements and statements.

Yeah, because that's exactly what I did when I posted those numbers.

I don't recall singling you out. In fact, I was referring to someone else.

[Nivek]

"Everything that can be counted does not necessarily count; everything that counts cannot necessarily be counted." -- Albert Einstein

I just love that quote...especially when folks try to use stats and data to make concrete and final judgements and statements.

Yeah, because that's exactly what I did when I posted those numbers.

I don't recall singling you out. In fact, I was referring to someone else.

My bad. I f-ed up my hip and I was feeling a little grouchy last night. Sorry about that.