2012 NBA Draft - Part V

[WizarDynasty]

to make blanket statement about the metrics used by a leading edge simulation game is silly. I would try to keep from embarassing myself until i was able to make a solid argument as to why the metrics used in nba2k12 don't related to a players actual ability in real life. show an understanding for categories that used to determine a players rating. So again how many categories is each player rated in would be where i would start before showing my lack of knowledge i am using to draw a solid conclusion like "silly".

WizD, I almost never comment on your posts, or finish reading the long ones, because frankly, I rarely have any idea what you're trying to say. Case in point above. Are you trying to ask Nivek in a not so polite manner if he would explain (yet again) his YODA system? If so, perhaps a simpler method would be, "Hey Nivek, can you explain the basis for your YODA system?" Again, we all love to be snarky on occasion, but its usually a good idea to write snark in a way that people understand - I would suggest complete sentences as a start. Personally, this would help me to understand better how "show an understanding for categories that used to determine a players rating" relates to the statements prior to and afterwards. It might also be a good idea to capture the portion you're responding to above as a reply (feel free to cut out the extraneous parts).

Just a thought - feel free to ignore if you like, as chances are I'll continue to ignore your posts if you don't.

Are we comparing prospect scoring ability inside or ability to shoot off the dribble? I see no real analysis of prospects here just group think blather. if a perimeter that we are rating as a top 3 prospect isn't above average at the dribbling moves in this image, maybe he shouldn't go top 3 since he is a perimeter player. None of these discussion are going on. These are true highlevel discussions that directly relate to basket. Group think always dulls the brain what are a top prospects rating now in each of these categories and more importantly what will it be 3 years from now. Which of these categories is more important for deep playoff success based on each position.
http://spawnkill.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/my-player.JPG if you want to see all categories

[DCZards]

Pass on MKG and you may be passing on drafting an Igoudala/G. Wallace type player. Pass on Beal and you may be passing on drafting a Wade/Harden type player.

[Mizerooskie]

Good post, WizD.

I really think EG should consider Ronnie Singh at #3.

[benb331]

what are a top prospects rating now in each of these categories and more importantly what will it be 3 years from now. Which of these categories is more important for deep playoff success based on each position.
http://spawnkill.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/my-player.JPG if you want to see all categories

You guys seriously don't give this area of expertise enough credit. We should consider what the game rankings would be for each player in the draft before we decide who the Wizards should choose. Those 2k developers have been studying this type of thing for over a decade now and have a strong handle on how exactly the season would play out if the Wiz pick AD1/AD2/HB. Obviously, due to weak lateral agility, AD1 is a little overrated. I'd guess about a 72 first year, 78 next year, 80 ... maybe max of 85. But still worth a top 10 pick. AD2 HUGE growth, something Ernie should really consider. He's like 71 first year, but with solid two way large rump D minded Nene or similar tutor then massive boost in year 2, somewhere around +12. We're looking at about 83 with room to grow - how could you pass that up?! And don't even start on HB, his 3P must be > 82 just to start. Great vertical too, so my guess is about 93.

Think about this next time you evaluate prospects, it's really important.

[Knighthonor]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wiz ... _blog.html

I wonder how the workout went.

[Dat2U]

Pass on MKG and you may be passing on drafting an Igoudala/G. Wallace type player. Pass on Beal and you may be passing on drafting a Wade/Harden type player.

Whoa. I don't by the Harden comparison. Beal hasn't shown that level of ability or skill that indicates you can actually run the offense through him. But the Wade comparison is as laughable as comparing MKG to Garnett.

[WizarDynasty]

what are a top prospects rating now in each of these categories and more importantly what will it be 3 years from now. Which of these categories is more important for deep playoff success based on each position.
http://spawnkill.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/my-player.JPG if you want to see all categories

You guys seriously don't give this area of expertise enough credit. We should consider what the game rankings would be for each player in the draft before we decide who the Wizards should choose. Those 2k developers have been studying this type of thing for over a decade now and have a strong handle on how exactly the season would play out if the Wiz pick AD1/AD2/HB. Obviously, due to weak lateral agility, AD1 is a little overrated. I'd guess about a 72 first year, 78 next year, 80 ... maybe max of 85. But still worth a top 10 pick. AD2 HUGE growth, something Ernie should really consider. He's like 71 first year, but with solid two way large rump D minded Nene or similar tutor then massive boost in year 2, somewhere around +12. We're looking at about 83 with room to grow - how could you pass that up?! And don't even start on HB, his 3P must be > 82 just to start. Great vertical too, so my guess is about 93.

Think about this next time you evaluate prospects, it's really important.

its good to know that the bare minimum analysis is being done around here.

[Dat2U]

:-/ Come guys, enough with the weak WizD parodies. If your going to do it, come hard or not at all.

[tontoz]

Video game ratings......

If there was a way to do a triple face palm i would be doing it right now.

[payitforward]

Ditto to Nate's response to Dark Faze's comments about MKG vs. Beal.

Haven't found much to respond to in Dark Faze's comments about anything.

[Mizerooskie]

A Beal-Wade comparison is far from laughable.

Comparing their freshman years:

EFG%
Beal 52.5
Wade 50.6

TS%
Beal 57.4
Wade 53.7

3P%
Beal 33.9
Wade 34.6

RB/40
Beal 8
Wade 9

A/TO
Beal 1.1
Wade 1.1

A/40
Beal 3
Wade 5

FG ATT/40
Beal 12
Wade 20

FT ATT/40
Beal 5
Wade 7

PTS/40
Beal 17
Wade 24

I wish I could find stats for Wade's usage rate, because I suspect it was significantly higher than Beal's, considering the disparity in FG ATT/40, A/40, and FT ATT/40. Those stats seem to indicate that Wade was more ball-dominant, which makes sense, since Beal essentially played the 3 with two upperclassmen at guard.

[benb331]

:-/ Come guys, enough with the weak WizD parodies. If your going to do it, come hard or not at all.

You're right. It's not even worth trying - I don't think I've seen a better troll in any forum, ever. I still don't know if he's serious or not, and I've been reading this forum for way too long.

Anyway, I think I've read every single post in this thread and I'm going with Beal. Curious as to who Nivek would choose, or if he'll answer definitively?

[payitforward]

Once he relaxed and just started played basketball, things came easier to him. I hardly think it's a reason to be concerned about his mindset. We're talking about a very young freshman who had a little trouble adjusting to the college game in his first half-season before he figured things out. That's a problem?

Not only was Beal adjusting to the college game, he was also adjusting to college life, a new coach, a new system and two ballhogging, shotchucking upperclass guards. I think the young man deserves a ton of credit for the way he turned things around and shot the lights out the last month or so of the season.

In truth, it's close to impossible to predict what someone like Beal, or for that matter MK-G, will wind up doing with any great degree of confidence. It's much easier to see that player A is likely to be better than player B at the same position -- at least in that case, we have numbers to use in the comparison. But once you try to put one player in frame, it gets harder.

The reason I'm so high on Beal is that his Freshman numbers were outstanding -- even tho held down by early-season shooting. Combine that with the video-scouting piece on DR, and he wows me.

In the case of Barnes, I can see his strengths in the video scouting newly put up on DR (recommended). But, his weaknesses are also on display and are quite significant. And his numbers as an NCAA SF -- both freshman and sophomore numbers -- are just not very good. TBH, I don't think he's going to be a starter in the NBA; I don't think he's going to be a real good player. As a lottery choice, no way.

[payitforward]

Just looking at Beals form and pegging him as a shooter is ridiculous. He shot terribly in college.

This is one of the reasons it's hard to take your posts seriously. No, he didn't shoot terribly in college. He had a .58 TS% and a .53 eFG%. You know how many Freshman 2 guards had a higher TS% than .58?

One and one only -- a kid who plays at Boston College. That's it.

They say "ignorance is bliss." Maybe sometimes. Most of the time, ignorance is irritatiing.

[payitforward]

to make blanket statement about the metrics used by a leading edge simulation game is silly. I would try to keep from embarassing myself until i was able to make a solid argument as to why the metrics used in nba2k12 don't related to a players actual ability in real life. show an understanding for categories that used to determine a players rating. So again how many categories is each player rated in would be where i would start before showing my lack of knowledge i am using to draw a solid conclusion like "silly".

Nah... no you wouldn't!

[TheKingOfVa360]

We need skilled players....we have enough athletes lacking in the skill dept(john wall). Kyrie Irving dosnet have the tools of John Wall but right now he is a better player because he is more skilled

Irving is not better than Wall

[payitforward]

...MKG is BPA.

If that's what you think, fine -- it's not an unreasonable position. But why don't you just talk him up instead of feeling like you have to talk Beal down in this foolish way?

[Dat2U]

A Beal-Wade comparison is far from laughable.

Comparing their freshman years:

EFG%
Beal 52.5
Wade 50.6

TS%
Beal 57.4
Wade 53.7

3P%
Beal 33.9
Wade 34.6

RB/40
Beal 8
Wade 9

A/TO
Beal 1.1
Wade 1.1

A/40
Beal 3
Wade 5

FG ATT/40
Beal 12
Wade 20

FT ATT/40
Beal 5
Wade 7

PTS/40
Beal 17
Wade 24

I wish I could find stats for Wade's usage rate, because I suspect it was significantly higher than Beal's, considering the disparity in FG ATT/40, A/40, and FT ATT/40. Those stats seem to indicate that Wade was more ball-dominant, which makes sense, since Beal essentially played the 3 with two upperclassmen at guard.

That's fine if you want to cherry pick stats but Wade was and is an electric athlete and elite shot creator. Beal is more a natural off the ball SG with a pure shooting stroke thant's only begining to develop an on-the-ball game. Athletically and stylistically there's absolutely no comparion.

[payitforward]

I have nothing against Beal.... Look at the stats: Was inferior to EG, Wade and Harden in terms of scoring and FG%. He was a good rebounder, that can't be debated.

Sigh... Beal's eFG% as a freshman was *better than* EG's. Gordon got to the line an ungodly amount that year which pushed his TS% past Beal's (that hasn't continued as a pro -- not that he's bad at it)

Beal's eFG% and TS% were both *better than* DWade's as a freshman.

Dude, maybe you should stop talking BS? What do you think?

[Mizerooskie]

That's fine if you want to cherry pick stats but Wade was and is an electric athlete and elite shot creator. Beal is more a natural off the ball SG with a pure shooting stroke thant's only begining to develop an on-the-ball game. Athletically and stylistically there's absolutely no comparion.

What stats did I cherry pick? What stats do you feel should be included in the comparison?

Come stronger than that.

As far as comparing the two athletically, Beal has more hops (33.0 v 31.5 NS vert, 39.0 vs. 35.0 max vert) and Wade is quicker (10.56 v 10.95 lane agility, 3.08 v 3.28 sprint).

And regarding Beal's on-the-ball game, you're merely speculating at the level of skill he's got in that department. His situation at UF dictated that he was going to play an off-the-ball role, whereas Wade's situation at Marquette put him in a ball-dominant role.