Official Trade Thread - Part XXVII

[Jay81]

would you guys trade Beal for Harden right now? This may have been a good Ernie non move. Beal making cheap money is producing as good as Harden who makes the Max and Beal is only 20

[fishercob]

I would have to think long and hard before breaking up this backcourt. They just work so well together. Beal is coming into his own in these playoffs and its a sight to see. I'm not sure I would do Beal for Love at this point.

Beal has been a revelation in the playoffs. I'm not sure yet if it's merely a low sample size hot streak, or if things have somehow "clicked" for him and he is ready to make The Leap. But I agree that if this level of play becomes a new plateau, then trading him just got a lot harder.

At this point, I think the Wizards should focus on moving Nene. He has been terrific in the playoffs and there are surely a lot of contenders who have noticed. If we can trade Nene for a 2015 expiring contract and a young prospect/pick it could open up some interesting possibilities in free agency next summer.

Whether that's a good idea or not, I have a hard time seeing Ernie making any moves to break up this team (with the exception of not overpaying for Ariza in free agency) especially those that would cause a temporary hit to our 2014-2015 record. Ernie is still looking out for Ernie and the public perception of losing Nene wouldn't be pretty.

I'm not so sure, miller. I can see Ted saying "Nene was a crucial part of our rebuild and helping to establish our culture and style of play. It is painful to see him go, but we must plan for the future and continue to build around our young back court."

Ted is not a fool. He knows how old Nene is and that he'll be irrelevant by the time Wall and Beal hit their true primes. While I would not bet on Nene being moved this summer, it would not shock me either.

[Severn Hoos]

Not sure how I feel about it but it works in the checker:

Webster & Miller for Ilyasova & Delfino.

Bux could waive Miller and basically shave $4-5M from next year's salary. Of course, they're already so far below the floor (let alone the cap/tax lines) that it may not have a very significant benefit for them. I suppose it gives them a bit more balance, in the event they keep all of Sanders, Henson, and ZaZa.

If Delfino is recovered from his injury, he could be a catch-and-shoot backup at SG that we would lose in Webster.

And of course, Ersan is the great enigma. Is he the 40%+ 3-pt shooting Stretch Four that would provide even greater balance to the roster? Is he the always-injured big who takes at least 2-3 months each year to get into playing shape? Is he the double-double machine of the past few late-season runs (excluding this past season)? Is he the incredibly inconsistent guy who will put up 29 & 15 one night and then 5 & 2 the next? Is he all of the above?

I think I'd roll the dice on this move, maybe even throwing in a small incentive (2nd rounder, S&T for Seraphin - like they'd even want that) to make it happen. Imagine Wall running the P&R with Gortat and having Beal, Ariza, and Ersan on the wings ready to spot up for three? Wow...

[queridiculo]

would you guys trade Beal for Harden right now? This may have been a good Ernie non move. Beal making cheap money is producing as good as Harden who makes the Max and Beal is only 20

Absolutely not.

[LyricalRico]

Not sure how I feel about it but it works in the checker:

Webster & Miller for Ilyasova & Delfino.

I'd rather do it without adding Miller because I think he has more value than that (either as a longterm mentor for Wall/Beal, or as a non-guaranteed trade chip in other deals).

[WizardsWorld]

I honestly don't think we're gonna make any major moves this offseason. Sure we'll probably inquire on Greg Monroe but once he demands the Max and either Detroit or Atlanta or whoever is willing to give it to him,.. we'll probably back out of that. We'll most likely try to resign Ariza and Gortat. Gortat I think is pretty much a sure thing to resign at this point,... and Ariza SHOULD... but we'll see.
I also can't see us trading Nene. He's a huge part of this team. And should have 2 more solid years in him remaining on that contract. His free agency matches up with our 2016 go get KD plan... Don't see us grabbing a big FA before 2016... so shouldn't be an issue keeping Nene.

[payitforward]

would you guys trade Beal for Harden right now? This may have been a good Ernie non move. Beal making cheap money is producing as good as Harden who makes the Max and Beal is only 20

Absolutely not.

Correct -- but what is the point you are making? The question is not whether we'd make such a trade now -- which anyway we couldn't do -- it's whether it would have been a good trade back then. Once you can look at the past with hindsight, you can always find the good trades and the bad trades.

And, suppose the trade had been put together in a way that got us e.g. the #7-8 pick instead of the #3 (i.e. Morey figured out how to acquire that pick and pass it to us in a deal), and we'd wound up with Harden and Andre Drummond?

With almost no exceptions, no matter who you pick in the draft, or who you trade for, it's possible to imagine later a scenario in which you do even better -- possible but pointless.

[payitforward]

EG has a simple task (IMO):
1) Keep this group together and competitive to 2016
2) Obtain a 1st round pick in 2015 (Before #20)
3) Maintain flexibility for 2016 FA class (Not cap space, but flexibility. So we can have contracts on the books, but we need to be able to dump them if necessary)

Everyone here has their own way to do 1, 2, or all three of these. But this is the path to us being competitive in Walls/Beals Prime is there.

Simple to describe, yes. Simple to do? Not so much.

Gortat will command big $$$, no matter how much we dream of having him at a bargain. As to Ariza -- are you watching the level he plays at now? You really think he's not going to be looking at a bunch of big $$$ offers?

Right now we have $41m committed to 5 guys next year. Pencil in @ $20m for TA/MG (sure it might be just slightly less -- but it might be more as well). We'll get Gooden as a bargain, but I hope no one is expecting a whole season of this kind of productivity from him). So call it $62m for 8 players.

Then what?

Booker -- I don't think we'll find a better backup 4 anywhere for lets say $4m he's likely to make -- and if it's 3 instead of 4, what difference does that make? Can't see us letting him walk, tho anything's possible.

Miller -- Hands suggests not picking up Miller's option, then signing him for $2m. If you've watched him, you know he can still be very productive. Don't you think others might be watching him as well? Do you think that once we drop his contract he's likely to prefer us over other offers? Would you? Feels like the opposite would be more likely.

The numbers mount, and we'd still only have 10 players at somewhere around $70m.

"Simple?" I don't think so.

[TGW]

Yup, payitforward.

There's pretty much no way to keep flexibility AND this group of starters. It's not happening. Ariza and Gortat are going to make too much money. And 2016 is when Beal is up for a raise, isn't it? Either way, forget flexibility or space in 2016...it's not happening. I don't think Turd is going to mortgage for what he feels is a sure thing (and when I say sure thing, I mean a competitive team that puts money in his pockets and butts in the seats) for a slim chance at a superstar free agent.

[popper]

I think the best scenario regarding Ariza is to find a sign and trade partner where we get a young big on a reasonable contract and an expiring (to make salaries match). I love Ariza but we can't afford him on a long term contract. Also, I wonder how much his improved play is motivated by his contract year.

[Samuels]

No doubt they will sign Gortat and Ariza especially if we win this series. Ted wants to fill seats and be competitive.

Webster is the one to move to make room for Otto.

[hands11]

EG has a simple task (IMO):
1) Keep this group together and competitive to 2016
2) Obtain a 1st round pick in 2015 (Before #20)
3) Maintain flexibility for 2016 FA class (Not cap space, but flexibility. So we can have contracts on the books, but we need to be able to dump them if necessary)

Everyone here has their own way to do 1, 2, or all three of these. But this is the path to us being competitive in Walls/Beals Prime is there.

Simple to describe, yes. Simple to do? Not so much.

Gortat will command big $$$, no matter how much we dream of having him at a bargain. As to Ariza -- are you watching the level he plays at now? You really think he's not going to be looking at a bunch of big $$$ offers?

Miller -- Hands suggests not picking up Miller's option, then signing him for $2m. If you've watched him, you know he can still be very productive. Don't you think others might be watching him as well? Do you think that once we drop his contract he's likely to prefer us over other offers? Would you? Feels like the opposite would be more likely.

The numbers mount, and we'd still only have 10 players at somewhere around $70m.

"Simple?" I don't think so.

PIF,

There is tons that I post about first that I don't get credit for, but I'm not sure I was the one that brought up the Miller buyout and resigning idea first. If I did, I forgot I did. lol

But yeah, all that other stuff is likely what they will do. And they should.

But one thing I don't think has fully sunk in to folks here is this, the new CBA. What will next years contracts look like. 7/8M a year contracts aren't going to get throw around like they used to be. 10M contracts are now making bank.

Also, its ok to have contracts filling your cap. Most good playoff teams have that. Its also ok to have players 30 and up. Most good playoff team have that also.

Once you fill you cap, you still have MLE and you can sign as many min vet contracts as you want. A player like Caron can just walk on the team if he wants and he would consider that. Why ? Because the Wizards are winners and have a solid team lots of players would want to play with. Okafor can come back if he wants also.

Maybe Ray Allen wants to come mentor Beal in his last years and pass on his legacy to the player most associated with his name.

Thats the advantage of being good. Players actually target trying to make it on your team. Build it, and they will come.

You can fill up the cap and still not be stuck, because you can make trades. The key is to have players other teams actually would want in a trade. And there are an advantages to being in that position. You get to work deals for players you have more intel on who might have several years in the league that can help you right away. Players that you have a better idea regarding their personalities and work ethic. For the Wizards, Webby is the one who is earning a little to much for that he currently does. But Webby is also a player other teams would want so its not a big deal when the time come that they might want to move him. Even Kevin has value. So does Booker. Having control of assets and contracts up to just under the lux tax can also be an advantage. But you really on see the real advantage of it when you are GOOD.

Something I posted about lots of time before was, this team has to many projects all at once. They needed to focus more on less of them. That's what they have done. It was a decision they made. Just heard one of the players talking about this in an interview yesterday. Well Wall and Beal are existing project stage now and Otto will be next years project. After that, they will decide if they want Kevin and Glen to get added to that list or cut bait for player that do things consistently now that will help them.

Its going to be ok. Its just not happening the way lots here wanted to see it happen and they guessed wrong and are heavy invested in a different approach to rebuilding. One that required clearing cap space dating back to the Lewis deal. One that involved trading Nene. And once we got Trevor A, lots of deal involved trading him. They wanted a younger starting 5. They didn't see how what they were doing could work. Me, I said lets wait and see. Things might work out with what they have. They will have options later.

Oddly, people still don't see how this model they are doing can work. We don't need to replace Nene, TA or Gortat. They are 3 players that are core to a great starting 5 with have two young rising star studs.. one 20 and one 23 that many are saying will be the best two player back court in the NBA. What's wrong with that ?

Really all they need is to keep it together and work up upgrading the bench. They have assets to work with regarding players, MLE and vet min contracts. Its going to be ok. Ted and EG put something good together. Even if it didn't happen the way people wanted to see it. Even if they made some mistakes.

Right now it all rides on bring TA and Gortat back and Otto working out. That's the focus now. Me ? I like their chances to have all that work out.

[hands11]

I think the best scenario regarding Ariza is to find a sign and trade partner where we get a young big on a reasonable contract and an expiring (to make salaries match). I love Ariza but we can't afford him on a long term contract. Also, I wonder how much his improved play is motivated by his contract year.

Actually they can afford him and I think it would be a bad idea to not bring him back. He is too key to what they are establishing in the starting 5. They absolutely should keep that together. Wall and Beal getting better and them starting the season with how they are ending it this year is how they get better. Just as is, this is a 50 + win team that will have 2nd round playoff experience.

Funny thing. Think about it like this. They should have been in the playoffs last year according to the time line but injuries messed them up. Last year would have been projected as playoffs but exit first round. This year would be get out of the first round. Well, that's were they are. Right one schedule. Next year would be targeting getting out of the 2nd round and that's where they should be.

Wall, Beal, Trevor A, Nene, Gortat

That 5 can hand with anyone. What they need to work on is the bench. As Wall and Beal mature, they can start to take some of the support system they build behind them away and move to younger bench players. They don't have to be wet behind the ears young but they do need to look at Booker, Kevin, Gooden, AH combination. Thats where they need the right blend of experience, athleticism, rebounding, scoring and defense.

I think AH is the one that gets replaced for someone younger and more athletic.

Anything like a Blair, Blatche, Josh McRoberts, Kris Humphries, Jason Smith would help.

And they need a back up SG option. Ray Allen and Beal unite ? That would be so sweet. Love to see those two practicing together and Ray teaching him longevity.

[dckingsfan]

I am with PIF on this one... it is going to be an expensive off-season just to get back to where we are right now.

And I am not convinced that Wall/Beal/Ariza/Nene/Gortat even makes the playoffs in the west - especially given Nene's injury history.

So, I am just going to enjoy this run while it lasts.

[Weganator]

S&T of Ariza could be a big play to try and acquire some sort of assets.

My ideal offseason would be to move Ariza and Miller, bringing in Tomas and Sefalosha.

Sefalosha is in a similar situation to Ariza prior to coming to the Wizards. Good defender that can competently hit a catch and shoot 3 that plays for a PG that isn't a distributor.

I think you could sign Thabo to a cheaper, 1 or 2 yr contract as an insurance policy if Otto doesn't pan out. Also, he can play some 2 if need be, giving us some roster flexibility.

[pcbothwel]

EG has a simple task (IMO):
1) Keep this group together and competitive to 2016
2) Obtain a 1st round pick in 2015 (Before #20)
3) Maintain flexibility for 2016 FA class (Not cap space, but flexibility. So we can have contracts on the books, but we need to be able to dump them if necessary)

Everyone here has their own way to do 1, 2, or all three of these. But this is the path to us being competitive in Walls/Beals Prime is there.

Simple to describe, yes. Simple to do? Not so much.

Gortat will command big $$$, no matter how much we dream of having him at a bargain. As to Ariza -- are you watching the level he plays at now? You really think he's not going to be looking at a bunch of big $$$ offers?

Right now we have $41m committed to 5 guys next year. Pencil in @ $20m for TA/MG (sure it might be just slightly less -- but it might be more as well). We'll get Gooden as a bargain, but I hope no one is expecting a whole season of this kind of productivity from him). So call it $62m for 8 players.

Then what?

Booker -- I don't think we'll find a better backup 4 anywhere for lets say $4m he's likely to make -- and if it's 3 instead of 4, what difference does that make? Can't see us letting him walk, tho anything's possible.

Miller -- Hands suggests not picking up Miller's option, then signing him for $2m. If you've watched him, you know he can still be very productive. Don't you think others might be watching him as well? Do you think that once we drop his contract he's likely to prefer us over other offers? Would you? Feels like the opposite would be more likely.

The numbers mount, and we'd still only have 10 players at somewhere around $70m.

"Simple?" I don't think so.

No need to be rigid in the plan. I should have rephrased step 1 to say "Keep them competitive", because you can afford to make adjustments. Lets say before FA starts you go to TA and Gortat to get a feel for what they'll get. Lets assume in this scenerio that Gortat has interest from the Mavs and we feel he'll get the 4/44 deal. We also assume that TA has some interest, but because of the market, he’s really only seeing 3-4 yr right above the MLE (about 7M). Scenario 1:

1) S&T Gortat (10-11M) to Dallas for Brandan Wright (1/5M) and Ellington (1/2.7M)
2) Resign Ariza to match his offer (4/30M)...OR...Give him more annually for less years (2/20M)
3) Trade Webster (5.3M) to MEM for Ed Davis S&T (2/12M)
4) Trade Miller (4.6M) to Charlotte for Haywood (2.2M) and Neal (3.2M)(maybe try make 3-way to get rid of Neal)
5) Bring over Satoransky and resign Gooden to Vet min.

Wall/Sato
Beal/Ellington/Rice
Ariza/Porter/Rice
Nene/Davis/Gooden
Wright/Davis/Gooden/Haywood

[LyricalRico]

S&T of Ariza could be a big play to try and acquire some sort of assets.

Interesting point. If Ariza really wants to go to Dallas, getting somebody like Brandan Wright back in a S&T would be a decent consolation prize.

[verbal8]

S&T of Ariza could be a big play to try and acquire some sort of assets.

My ideal offseason would be to move Ariza and Miller, bringing in Tomas and Sefalosha.

Normally S&T deals don't bring back much in return. However I could see a team giving up a couple 2nds to sign Ariza. I think the Reddick deal is interesting to the Wizards this offseason in a couple ways, first the return for Reddick, but also the return from Phoenix's point of view. Phoenix dealt Dudley and a 2nd for a bad contract and Bledsoe. I don't think there is a player of Bledsoe's caliber on the trade market, but something similar could be obtained dealing Webster.

[gesa2]

I was just reading the latest Mock Draft. Of course the order hasn't been set yet, but if Utah ends up in a position where the best player available is a 4 or a 5, and we resign Ariza, we should see if they have interest in a Porter for Kanter trade to balance both rosters.

[dlts20]

forgive me if already posted and I dont see the FA thread but did anyone see this on the main board?

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1320573