Bradley Beal - Part III

[nate33]

Beal's 3 pt. % is down (lowest of his career, in fact), his 2pt. % is down, & his FT % is down. Hence his TS% is down. As a result, he's by no means the player this year that he was last year -- despite some great games.

OTOH, he's still way better than he was any of the previous years, & there's plenty of time for him to bring his production up.

You know, probably only one of Wall or Beal are going to make the All-Star game. It would appear to be Beal, but Wall has a full two months before the All-Star game to catch up and has a much bigger reputation around the league. Hell Wall might just on reputation alone make it over Beal.

Ideally, the chase for that spot results in both of them playing amazing. I do believe that Beal overall plays better with Wall.

If they voted now, Kyrie, Derozan and Oladipo are definitely ahead of our backcourt when you factor individual numbers and wins. Wall and Beal are in the next tier alongside Lowry, Walker. (Lowry is extremely efficient, but his low counting numbers in points and assists will hold him back. Walker certainly deserves it going by the numbers, but his team is only 9-16.)

Only 5 guards make it. Beal and Wall have their work cut out. I do think that they'll let at least one of our guys in before letting both of Toronto's backcourt in, so one should make it.

Also, I'm still not a believer in Indiana. If they come back down to Earth, Oladipo will no longer be a shoe-in.

[Kanyewest]

Beal's 3 pt. % is down (lowest of his career, in fact), his 2pt. % is down, & his FT % is down. Hence his TS% is down. As a result, he's by no means the player this year that he was last year -- despite some great games.

OTOH, he's still way better than he was any of the previous years, & there's plenty of time for him to bring his production up.

You know, probably only one of Wall or Beal are going to make the All-Star game. It would appear to be Beal, but Wall has a full two months before the All-Star game to catch up and has a much bigger reputation around the league. Hell Wall might just on reputation alone make it over Beal.

Ideally, the chase for that spot results in both of them playing amazing. I do believe that Beal overall plays better with Wall.

If they voted now, Kyrie, Derozan and Oladipo are definitely ahead of our backcourt when you factor individual numbers and wins. Wall and Beal are in the next tier alongside Lowry, Walker. (Lowry is extremely efficient, but his low counting numbers in points and assists will hold him back. Walker certainly deserves it going by the numbers, but his team is only 9-16.)

Only 5 guards make it. Beal and Wall have their work cut out. I do think that they'll let at least one of our guys in before letting both of Toronto's backcourt in, so one should make it.

Also, I'm still not a believer in Indiana. If they come back down to Earth, Oladipo will no longer be a shoe-in.

Last year 6 guards made it (Irving, DeRozan, IT, Wall, Lowry, Walker). Although I believe only 4 guards are guaranteed to make it.

[nate33]

You know, probably only one of Wall or Beal are going to make the All-Star game. It would appear to be Beal, but Wall has a full two months before the All-Star game to catch up and has a much bigger reputation around the league. Hell Wall might just on reputation alone make it over Beal.

Ideally, the chase for that spot results in both of them playing amazing. I do believe that Beal overall plays better with Wall.

If they voted now, Kyrie, Derozan and Oladipo are definitely ahead of our backcourt when you factor individual numbers and wins. Wall and Beal are in the next tier alongside Lowry, Walker. (Lowry is extremely efficient, but his low counting numbers in points and assists will hold him back. Walker certainly deserves it going by the numbers, but his team is only 9-16.)

Only 5 guards make it. Beal and Wall have their work cut out. I do think that they'll let at least one of our guys in before letting both of Toronto's backcourt in, so one should make it.

Also, I'm still not a believer in Indiana. If they come back down to Earth, Oladipo will no longer be a shoe-in.

Last year 6 guards made it (Irving, DeRozan, IT, Wall, Lowry, Walker). Although I believe only 4 guards are guaranteed to make it.

Usually, it's 5 from the backcourt and 7 from the frontcourt. I think last year they might have considered DeRozan a forward because there was so much talent at the guard position and nobody in the frontcourt other than Lebron, Giannis, George and Millsap. They also labeled Jimmy Butler a small forward.

[Dark Faze]

Beal's 3 pt. % is down (lowest of his career, in fact), his 2pt. % is down, & his FT % is down. Hence his TS% is down. As a result, he's by no means the player this year that he was last year -- despite some great games.

OTOH, he's still way better than he was any of the previous years, & there's plenty of time for him to bring his production up.

You know, probably only one of Wall or Beal are going to make the All-Star game. It would appear to be Beal, but Wall has a full two months before the All-Star game to catch up and has a much bigger reputation around the league. Hell Wall might just on reputation alone make it over Beal.

Ideally, the chase for that spot results in both of them playing amazing. I do believe that Beal overall plays better with Wall.

If they voted now, Kyrie, Derozan and Oladipo are definitely ahead of our backcourt when you factor individual numbers and wins. Wall and Beal are in the next tier alongside Lowry, Walker. (Lowry is extremely efficient, but his low counting numbers in points and assists will hold him back. Walker certainly deserves it going by the numbers, but his team is only 9-16.)

Only 5 guards make it. Beal and Wall have their work cut out. I do think that they'll let at least one of our guys in before letting both of Toronto's backcourt in, so one should make it.

Also, I'm still not a believer in Indiana. If they come back down to Earth, Oladipo will no longer be a shoe-in.

I think the guards will be Dipo, DeRozan, Kyrie, Beal, Wall. But Wall will need to step up his play and get our win record up a little bit.

Kemba will be snubbed. Nice player but he won't have better numbers than Wall/Beal and the record will be worse.

[nate33]

You know, probably only one of Wall or Beal are going to make the All-Star game. It would appear to be Beal, but Wall has a full two months before the All-Star game to catch up and has a much bigger reputation around the league. Hell Wall might just on reputation alone make it over Beal.

Ideally, the chase for that spot results in both of them playing amazing. I do believe that Beal overall plays better with Wall.

If they voted now, Kyrie, Derozan and Oladipo are definitely ahead of our backcourt when you factor individual numbers and wins. Wall and Beal are in the next tier alongside Lowry, Walker. (Lowry is extremely efficient, but his low counting numbers in points and assists will hold him back. Walker certainly deserves it going by the numbers, but his team is only 9-16.)

Only 5 guards make it. Beal and Wall have their work cut out. I do think that they'll let at least one of our guys in before letting both of Toronto's backcourt in, so one should make it.

Also, I'm still not a believer in Indiana. If they come back down to Earth, Oladipo will no longer be a shoe-in.

I think the guards will be Dipo, DeRozan, Kyrie, Beal, Wall. But Wall will need to step up his play and get our win record up a little bit.

Kemba will be snubbed. Nice player but he won't have better numbers than Wall/Beal and the record will be worse.

Walker is easily outplaying Beal. It's not really that close. He is a bit more efficient as a scorer and he is doubling Beal's assist rate with fewer turnovers.



It's possible that Walker will be snubbed if his team continues to languish at 12th place in the conference standings; but if Walker keeps playing like this and Charlotte moves up to that 7-8 range, I think he deserves it over our guys.

[Dark Faze]

It'll be easier to return to this discussion in a month. For all we know the Pacers could easily slip below .500 and result in Oladipo being erased from the list as a result

[Kanyewest]

If they voted now, Kyrie, Derozan and Oladipo are definitely ahead of our backcourt when you factor individual numbers and wins. Wall and Beal are in the next tier alongside Lowry, Walker. (Lowry is extremely efficient, but his low counting numbers in points and assists will hold him back. Walker certainly deserves it going by the numbers, but his team is only 9-16.)

Only 5 guards make it. Beal and Wall have their work cut out. I do think that they'll let at least one of our guys in before letting both of Toronto's backcourt in, so one should make it.

Also, I'm still not a believer in Indiana. If they come back down to Earth, Oladipo will no longer be a shoe-in.

Last year 6 guards made it (Irving, DeRozan, IT, Wall, Lowry, Walker). Although I believe only 4 guards are guaranteed to make it.

Usually, it's 5 from the backcourt and 7 from the frontcourt. I think last year they might have considered DeRozan a forward because there was so much talent at the guard position and nobody in the frontcourt other than Lebron, Giannis, George and Millsap. They also labeled Jimmy Butler a small forward.

DeRozan was considered a shooting guard since he was in the starting lineup along with Butler, LeBron, Giannis, and Irving. By the way, if it was only up to the fans, Wade would have been voted in over DeRozan.

IIRC, at least 4 guards are selected in the top 10 spots and the final 2 spots are wild cards which can be handed out to guards, forwards, and centers.

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[nate33]

That's right! I remember now. It's 4 guards, 6 frontcourt, 2 wildcard.

[payitforward]

Beal's 3 pt. % is down (lowest of his career, in fact), his 2pt. % is down, & his FT % is down. Hence his TS% is down. As a result, he's by no means the player this year that he was last year -- despite some great games.

OTOH, he's still way better than he was any of the previous years, & there's plenty of time for him to bring his production up.

He had an ORtg of 114 and a TS% of .589 up through the second Miami game (with a higher USG% than last year: 28.8%). After that Wall got hurt, teams focused on shutting down Beal, and his efficiency dropped.

Hopefully, when Wall gets back, he'll return to the guy he was the first 15 games of the season. The good news is that his rebounding and FTA's are up.

Agreed.

There is one thing a little strange in Beal's numbers, & your remark about his usage being up was what made me notice it:

Per 48 minutes, he's taking 25.3 shots vs. 23.7 shots last year. Yet, last year 9.9 of his shots were 3's, whereas this year it's down to 8.5. Which means that he's taking @3 more 2 pt. shots this year than last.

& that may underestimate the difference, as he's getting to the line 1.7 times more than last year. I assume that part of that increase comes from being fouled more often driving to the basket.

This change in the mix of his shots accounts for a significant part of the decline in his TS%. Even at his current 36.6% on 3-pointers, they are more efficient shot attempts than his 2's (51.1% -- though the extra FTAs they generate makes up for part of the difference).

I'm sure a lot of this has to do w/ how he's being guarded. But, I don't think it reflects John being out -- he's been hitting 3's all season at a lower rate than last year.

Something to watch....

[nate33]

Well, out of curiosity, who would the 12 All Stars be ignoring position?

Here are some contenders. Let me know if I'm missing anyone.

Lowry
Walker
Dragic
Wall
Oladipo
Beal
Derozan
Lebron
Giannis
Love
Porzingis
Drummond
Horford
Whiteside
Howard

That's 15 guys and definitely too many centers. Whiteside probably doesn't make it. And one of Howard or Love may not make it either. So Wall and Beal are both in as long as they can beat out Dragic.

[Dark Faze]

The 3pt number will come up, and even if it doesn't 37% is a good percentage, just not great.

The part of his game I really want to expand on is...embarrassingly enough, free throw percentage. He should really be working towards being an 85% guy at the stripe at a minimum.

[Kanyewest]

Well, out of curiosity, who would the 12 All Stars be ignoring position?

Here are some contenders. Let me know if I'm missing anyone.

Lowry
Walker
Dragic
Wall
Oladipo
Beal
Derozan
Lebron
Giannis
Love
Porzingis
Drummond
Horford
Whiteside
Howard

That's 15 guys and definitely too many centers. Whiteside probably doesn't make it. And one of Howard or Love may not make it either. So Wall and Beal are both in as long as they can beat out Dragic.

Joel Embiid/Simmons as contenders.

Brown/Tatum if the voters feel like that Boston deserves 3 all stars because they have the #1 seed. Although they could split the vote.

Long shot contender- Aaron Gordon, Orlando would have to pick it up.

[I_Like_Dirt]

Well, out of curiosity, who would the 12 All Stars be ignoring position?

Here are some contenders. Let me know if I'm missing anyone.

Lowry
Walker
Dragic
Wall
Oladipo
Beal
Derozan
Lebron
Giannis
Love
Porzingis
Drummond
Horford
Whiteside
Howard

That's 15 guys and definitely too many centers. Whiteside probably doesn't make it. And one of Howard or Love may not make it either. So Wall and Beal are both in as long as they can beat out Dragic.

I have a hard time seeing Dwight making it. He's got okay-ish numbers, but his team is terrible despite adding him and he clearly isn't the best player on his team - not by a long shot, although casual fans admittedly may not recognize that.

I also don't really see Dragic making it. There are just too many guards who are clearly better than him. They're already going to have to figure out how to accommodate so many guards, I don't see him making the cut at all.

I also don't think both Drummond and Whiteside make it. I'm not even sure if either of them make it. I see Embiid, Horford, Porzingis and Love being ahead of those two guys in the frontcourt, and with Giannis and Lebron already up front, there isn't a ton of space there, really. Simmons honestly should make it, but probably won't due to depth and being a rookie. To be honest, I feel both Wall and Beal really should make it and probably will. Detroit has come back down to earth, and while it isn't as recognized as it should be, their early success was largely due to their bench playing crazy defense while their starters got pummelled. Their starters are still getting pummelled but their bench has come back down to earth.

[nate33]

Well, out of curiosity, who would the 12 All Stars be ignoring position?

Here are some contenders. Let me know if I'm missing anyone.

Lowry
Walker
Dragic
Wall
Oladipo
Beal
Derozan
Lebron
Giannis
Love
Porzingis
Drummond
Horford
Whiteside
Howard

That's 15 guys and definitely too many centers. Whiteside probably doesn't make it. And one of Howard or Love may not make it either. So Wall and Beal are both in as long as they can beat out Dragic.

I have a hard time seeing Dwight making it. He's got okay-ish numbers, but his team is terrible despite adding him and he clearly isn't the best player on his team - not by a long shot, although casual fans admittedly may not recognize that.

I also don't really see Dragic making it. There are just too many guards who are clearly better than him. They're already going to have to figure out how to accommodate so many guards, I don't see him making the cut at all.

I also don't think both Drummond and Whiteside make it. I'm not even sure if either of them make it. I see Embiid, Horford, Porzingis and Love being ahead of those two guys in the frontcourt, and with Giannis and Lebron already up front, there isn't a ton of space there, really. Simmons honestly should make it, but probably won't due to depth and being a rookie. To be honest, I feel both Wall and Beal really should make it and probably will. Detroit has come back down to earth, and while it isn't as recognized as it should be, their early success was largely due to their bench playing crazy defense while their starters got pummelled. Their starters are still getting pummelled but their bench has come back down to earth.

Good analysis. Yes, Simmons or Embiid are definitely in the mix. I think Simmons is actually ahead of Embiid for now. However, the Sixers have lost 4 straight and they may come back down to Earth as teams start figuring them out.

And you're right about Love. I didn't realize how good his numbers were until I just looked it up. He is balling. To be fair, it's because he is playing center which creates matchup advantages on offense. Those matchup advantages on offense are being offset by his inability to be a rim protector on defense, but All-Star voters don't always pay attention to that.

Also good point about Detroit.

I'd say Giannis, Lebron, Horford, Porzingis and Love are definitely in for the frontcourt. That leaves probably 2 more spots to be chosen from Embiid, Simmons, Drummond, Whiteside and Howard. The backcourt is pretty wide open. Kyrie looks like a lock, but 6 guys are in the mix for the other 4 spots: Oladipo, DeRozan, Lowry, Wall, Beal, Walker.

[WizarDynasty]

I am liking what beal is showing. the real question is how long can Beal keep up a high ussage without his knee falling apart. He managed to survive last season which is a miracle but he is really chancing it with this Harden type usage right now. Beal is know for alot of force impact to his knee because of his jumper form and the way he lands after layups and drives. He also isn't the most fluid with his hips while playing defense and uses alot of leg guards instead of getting his chest out front. But I am loving Walls mind. Saving those knees with platelet treatment. Striking 82 game playoff team yearly and maintaining your knees. That's our only chance at dynasty and maybe getting a draymond green 82 game player with heart and non injury instead of morris would be perfect but that's asking alot i guess.

[nate33]

I am liking what beal is showing. the real question is how long can Beal keep up a high ussage without his knee falling apart. He managed to survive last season which is a miracle but he is really chancing it with this Harden type usage right now. Beal is know for alot of force impact to his knee because of his jumper form and the way he lands after layups and drives. He also isn't the most fluid with his hips while playing defense and uses alot of leg guards instead of getting his chest out front. But I am loving Walls mind. Saving those knees with platelet treatment. Striking 82 game playoff team yearly and maintaining your knees. That's our only chance at dynasty and maybe getting a draymond green 82 game player with heart and non injury instead of morris would be perfect but that's asking alot i guess.

Does Beal have any knee issues at all? I thought his problem was stress fractures in the tibia, and that it might have had something to do with growth plates. Last year, he had a hamstring injury early in the year, but seemed fine after that.

[nate33]

I am liking what beal is showing. the real question is how long can Beal keep up a high ussage without his knee falling apart. He managed to survive last season which is a miracle but he is really chancing it with this Harden type usage right now. Beal is know for alot of force impact to his knee because of his jumper form and the way he lands after layups and drives. He also isn't the most fluid with his hips while playing defense and uses alot of leg guards instead of getting his chest out front. But I am loving Walls mind. Saving those knees with platelet treatment. Striking 82 game playoff team yearly and maintaining your knees. That's our only chance at dynasty and maybe getting a draymond green 82 game player with heart and non injury instead of morris would be perfect but that's asking alot i guess.

Man, it would suck playing basketball with you and your friends. Nobody passes; nobody sets picks; nobody moves without the ball; nobody plays help defense. It's just taking turns going one-on-one.

Why not just play one-on-one?

[WizarDynasty]

I think Beals one on one game is key because wall's knees are getting worn down continously breaaking down the defense and creating easy shots. crossover is used to force a two on one.
You have to create a mismatch in order to get a high percentage shot against play off teams.

[NatP4]

that hurt to watch lol

[miller31time]

What is the reason Beal has never been able to be a great free throw shooter? You’d think someone with the form and stroke he has would be in the 85% range. Yet he’s one of the guys I least want to see on the line in crunch time.

Does he not put enough arch on the ball? What’s the deal?