Official Trade Thread - Part XXXI

[DANNYLANDOVER]

I think I would include Porter in a deal for Cousins. I'd rather not but its also probably the only way a deal would get done. Too many other teams can offer enticing packages for us to expect a deal centered around just Beal & Oubre to be enough.

If we Gay in return, it makes dealing Porter more palatable in the short run.

Then don't do the trade. I don't think Cousins is going to transform this team to a contender and he also has just 1 more year left on his deal.

[Dat2U]

I think I would include Porter in a deal for Cousins. I'd rather not but its also probably the only way a deal would get done. Too many other teams can offer enticing packages for us to expect a deal centered around just Beal & Oubre to be enough.

If we Gay in return, it makes dealing Porter more palatable in the short run.

Then don't do the trade. I don't think Cousins is going to transform this team to a contender and he also has just 1 more year left on his deal.

I love Otto but I don't think keeping him and paying him big money transforms the Wizards into a contender either.

I think if we get Cousins and he tastes the playoffs, he'll stay, especially with Wall here. And let's face it, Cousins is a better player than Otto. He's more impactful and he's potentially the best C in the game. If you can dump Beal's deal and get Gay in return, all the better. That's a legit playoff team.

The key afterwards is figuring out what to do with Gortat & Mahinmi. Trade one or both for help on the wings. Or see if you can get Garrett Temple back in the deal with the Kings as well.

[DANNYLANDOVER]

I think I would include Porter in a deal for Cousins. I'd rather not but its also probably the only way a deal would get done. Too many other teams can offer enticing packages for us to expect a deal centered around just Beal & Oubre to be enough.

If we Gay in return, it makes dealing Porter more palatable in the short run.

Then don't do the trade. I don't think Cousins is going to transform this team to a contender and he also has just 1 more year left on his deal.

I love Otto but I don't think keeping him and paying him big money transforms the Wizards into a contender either.

I think if we get Cousins and he tastes the playoffs, he'll stay, especially with Wall here. And let's face it, Cousins is a better player than Otto. He's more impactful and he's potentially the best C in the game. If you can dump Beal's deal and get Gay in return, all the better. That's a legit playoff team.

The key afterwards is figuring out what to do with Gortat & Mahinmi. Trade one or both for help on the wings. Or see if you can get Garrett Temple back in the deal with the Kings as well.

I see what you are saying, but Porter contributes to winning and would rather have him on my team. Even better if we can get Cousins and keep Porter. If Beal + Oubre + a protected pick isn't good enough, we can just wait for him to hit free agency.

[dangermouse]

Porter is the kind of player you want to keep around if youre bringing in a guy like Cousins.

He does it all, his defensive and offensive rebounding is up. He appears to be (to my eye) our best perimeter defender. He also appears to be shooting the three at a higher clip (havent checked the stats but this seems likely from the games ive watched).

He doesnt appear to be the kind of guy who demands touches or anything, and will work hard when given minutes.

To me, Wall, Porter and Sato are the "untouchables" in a Cousins trade. If Something around Beal/couple of firsts/Oubre can't get it done then its not worth doing.

[dangermouse]

Just realised i basically said exactly what Danny said above me haha.

I honestly think if we took Beal out of the equation and replaced him with a pure shooter (someone like Redick) we wouldnt take much of a step back at all. To me that means he must be traded and the money we pay him would be better off spent elsewhere, like on resigning Porter. And ive always been a massive fan of Beal.

[Dark Faze]

It's going to come down to if Boston wants to move the Brooklyn pick. There's nothing we can really do to beat that if they do. If Boston doesn't want to play ball then I think we could easily be the leaders in the chase.

I know people don't want to give up a 1st, but this is a guard heavy draft and John is looking better than he ever has post knee surgery. I think a path exists where we could undo almost all of Ernie's offseason mistakes by giving up the pick.

Beal/1st rounder/Nicholson for Cousins/Gay

Maybe we keep Gay if he looks good but otherwise he opts out in the summer and we get rid of the horrible Nicholson contract. That only leaves us with Smith as the bad contract from the summer. Then we'll still have Gortat to be able to move as well. There's enough to work with there to claw up to the 6/7 seed and see what damage you can doin the playoffs.

[payitforward]

I think I would include Porter in a deal for Cousins. I'd rather not but its also probably the only way a deal would get done. Too many other teams can offer enticing packages for us to expect a deal centered around just Beal & Oubre to be enough.

If we Gay in return, it makes dealing Porter more palatable in the short run.

Then don't do the trade. I don't think Cousins is going to transform this team to a contender and he also has just 1 more year left on his deal.

I love Otto but I don't think keeping him and paying him big money transforms the Wizards into a contender either.

I think if we get Cousins and he tastes the playoffs, he'll stay, especially with Wall here. And let's face it, Cousins is a better player than Otto. He's more impactful and he's potentially the best C in the game. If you can dump Beal's deal and get Gay in return, all the better. That's a legit playoff team.

The key afterwards is figuring out what to do with Gortat & Mahinmi. Trade one or both for help on the wings. Or see if you can get Garrett Temple back in the deal with the Kings as well.

There is no trade, none that's really possible, that turns us into a contender. If you hamper your future to achieve a non-optimal present, your name is Ernie Grunfeld.

The question to ask right now, given that we will not be good any time soon, is this: "which of our assets will have the greatest increase in production & value over time?" The best answer to that question is Otto Porter.

You never ever ever ever want to trade that kind of asset for a short term gain in production now -- unless you have a legitimate shot at a title. Think our 2009 pre-draft trade of (essentially) Steph Curry for Miller & Foye.

Moreover, we don't even have a significant shot at the playoffs, let alone getting to R2 were we to sneak in as #7 or 8.

Finally, Dat, personal speculation that you or I "think" something will happen isn't a good basis for an action. After such a trade, with Cousins, Wall, Gay and a bunch of scrubs who knows whether Cousins gets to "taste" the playoffs? And, if he does, who's to say that it makes him want to "stay" b/c Wall is here? Who's to say that Wall will want to stay? Maybe they'll both want to leave after that "taste?"

The only thing palatable in this whole set of ideas would be to rid ourselves of Beal's salary. I'd happily trade Beal and Oubre for Cousins and Gay. But that's because Gay would be gone soon, and Cousins' salary isn't nearly the boat anchor that Brad's is. I don't think that move would lead to much near-term success, but it very likely makes the next total rebuild easier -- and possibly sooner. I'd include Mahinmi as well for the same reason. But I wouldn't include Porter and I wouldn't give any future draft picks at all.

[Dark Faze]

I'm willing to rebuild when a new core of young players would easily be better than the core we have. That was heavily apparent facing down a broken down GIlbert and an aging Butler and Jamison. It's absolutely not the case when we're talking about a core of Wall/Cousins/Porter.

That is a core we could build around to be an eastern conference finals competitor, and an injury from the cavs to being a finals team. If you can make that happen, then you don't rebuild. Winning the championship is ideal, but you don't break it all down just to get a step further unless you're doing what the dubs did.

We could end up doing a complete rebuild, waste 5 years and be exactly where we would have been had we stuck with Porter/Wall/Cousins. Who knows what happens in a few years. You think the dubs are aged out along with the cavs and all of a sudden there's a Paul George/Anthony Davis/DMC super team to deal with.

[Dat2U]

Then don't do the trade. I don't think Cousins is going to transform this team to a contender and he also has just 1 more year left on his deal.

I love Otto but I don't think keeping him and paying him big money transforms the Wizards into a contender either.

I think if we get Cousins and he tastes the playoffs, he'll stay, especially with Wall here. And let's face it, Cousins is a better player than Otto. He's more impactful and he's potentially the best C in the game. If you can dump Beal's deal and get Gay in return, all the better. That's a legit playoff team.

The key afterwards is figuring out what to do with Gortat & Mahinmi. Trade one or both for help on the wings. Or see if you can get Garrett Temple back in the deal with the Kings as well.

There is no trade, none that's really possible, that turns us into a contender. If you hamper your future to achieve a non-optimal present, your name is Ernie Grunfeld.

The question to ask right now, given that we will not be good any time soon, is this: "which of our assets will have the greatest increase in production & value over time?" The best answer to that question is Otto Porter.

You never ever ever ever want to trade that kind of asset for a short term gain in production now -- unless you have a legitimate shot at a title. Think our 2009 pre-draft trade of (essentially) Steph Curry for Miller & Foye.

Moreover, we don't even have a significant shot at the playoffs, let alone getting to R2 were we to sneak in as #7 or 8.

Finally, Dat, personal speculation that you or I "think" something will happen isn't a good basis for an action. After such a trade, with Cousins, Wall, Gay and a bunch of scrubs who knows whether Cousins gets to "taste" the playoffs? And, if he does, who's to say that it makes him want to "stay" b/c Wall is here? Who's to say that Wall will want to stay? Maybe they'll both want to leave after that "taste?"

The only thing palatable in this whole set of ideas would be to rid ourselves of Beal's salary. I'd happily trade Beal and Oubre for Cousins and Gay. But that's because Gay would be gone soon, and Cousins' salary isn't nearly the boat anchor that Brad's is. I don't think that move would lead to much near-term success, but it very likely makes the next total rebuild easier -- and possibly sooner. I'd include Mahinmi as well for the same reason. But I wouldn't include Porter and I wouldn't give any future draft picks at all.

The problem with this analysis is your fairly low opinion of Cousins. Your likely part of very small minority that somehow comes to the conclusion that Gortat is better than Cousins. In all I find the way you come to this and other conclusions fairly rudimentary (i.e. basically subtracting the bad (TOs, missed shots, etc from the good). There's a ton of information not taken into consideration when simply looking at the box score.

Either way, I'm ok with dealing Otto (not in love with it mind you) if it nets us Cousins & removes Beal's contract burden. This is because I view Cousins as arguably the best center in the league. In spite of the fairly low TS%, TOs & non-elite rebounding. Watch any Kings games and you see he asked to do so much. I don't think there's any C in the league that's tasked with as much offensive responsibility and is often forced to play out of position (something you don't seem to put much stock into either).

Cousins & Wall are two all-star quality players on great contracts. They play two of the toughest positions in the league. They alone might not make us a contender but it gets us much closer than we've been in what seems forever. I believe there would be excellent synergy with the two. As far as you question: "which of our assets will have the greatest increase in production & value over time?" I'd say both Wall & Cousins would be the correct answer if were able to pull off this deal. We are already seeing Wall raise his level of play as he works himself back from double knee surgery to have the best start of a season in his career. He's notoriously been a slow starter and in the past has taken a month or two to find his groove.

Again the key would be the pieces around these two. Say what you want about Rudy Gay, he's a quality starting NBA SF. We know Sato & Morris are at least capable rotation players. And if this deal is made we have excess bigs in Gortat & Mahinmi to which we can use to acquire additional depth on the perimeter. I'm confident we would have a significant opportunity to make the playoffs and even go further.

[WallToWall]

I'm willing to rebuild when a new core of young players would easily be better than the core we have. That was heavily apparent facing down a broken down GIlbert and an aging Butler and Jamison. It's absolutely not the case when we're talking about a core of Wall/Cousins/Porter.

That is a core we could build around to be an eastern conference finals competitor, and an injury from the cavs to being a finals team. If you can make that happen, then you don't rebuild. Winning the championship is ideal, but you don't break it all down just to get a step further unless you're doing what the dubs did.

We could end up doing a complete rebuild, waste 5 years and be exactly where we would have been had we stuck with Porter/Wall/Cousins. Who knows what happens in a few years. You think the dubs are aged out along with the cavs and all of a sudden there's a Paul George/Anthony Davis/DMC super team to deal with.

EG lacks the vision or capability to do something like this. He is not Danny Ainge.
He can get us Cousins-light, whoever that is, and loose Porter in the deal.

[Dark Faze]

I think we also give other front offices too much credit. 95% of the league didn't even inquire about getting Isaiah Thomas from Phoenix when he was putting up numbers. Otto is most known for Shaqtin and this team is still not doing great right now despite his numbers, so there's not much of a narrative out there about Otto's improvement. Is a team with a front office arguably worse than ours going to have the vision to demand Otto in a trade?

[payitforward]

I think we also give other front offices too much credit. 95% of the league didn't even inquire about getting Isaiah Thomas from Phoenix when he was putting up numbers. Otto is most known for Shaqtin and this team is still not doing great right now despite his numbers, so there's not much of a narrative out there about Otto's improvement. Is a team with a front office arguably worse than ours going to have the vision to demand Otto in a trade?

I believe this falls under a well-known adage: "when the blind lead the blind both shall fall in a ditch." Making the necessary substitutions it would read: "when the stupid trade with the stupid both shall get fleeced."

[payitforward]

The problem with this analysis is your fairly low opinion of Cousins. You r likely part of very small minority that somehow comes to the conclusion that Gortat is better than Cousins. In all I find the way you come to this and other conclusions fairly rudimentary (i.e. basically subtracting the bad (TOs, missed shots, etc from the good). There's a ton of information not taken into consideration when simply looking at the box score.

I don't have a low opinion of Demarcus Cousins. In fact, I don't have any "opinion" of Cousins at all. I'm only interested in the impact of his numbers on wins and losses.

Of course, the premise of that interest is as follows: only numbers impact wins and losses. If you don't agree with that, there's nothing to talk about -- of course how to analyze numbers is a different question, and I'll come to that in a moment.

As to Cousins's gifts, well... lets assume we are looking at an activity that doesn't end in a win or a loss. Like someone dancing or performing in some other way. From that angle, it's obvious that Cousins is enormously gifted, one of the most gifted big men I've ever seen. Moreover, in college his numbers were great too -- as I've said many times, I would have drafted Demarcus Cousins over John Wall.

Is my analysis of basketball "rudimentary"? I'll say a few things in response to that, but the most important one is this: basketball is not rocket science. It's not particularly difficult to analyze basketball.

Why? Because there's only one variable to account for: win-loss record. The rest is of no interest. Whatever affects wins, and how / how much it affects wins, is important; everything else may be entertaining -- which is great of course, because we watch basketball to be entertained -- but that's all it is. Again, "if you don't agree with that, there's nothing to talk about."

At the team-level -- i.e. thinking about which teams are good rather than whether one player is -- wins give you the answer, right? Better teams win more games. Worse teams win fewer games. Of course, in a 7-game playoff series chance has a role. If we say team A has a 60% chance to win the series, we do mean that if the series were played 10 times, team B would win 4 of the times.

Guess what. At the team level the box score numbers account 100% for the winner of the game. In fact, only one number is needed: the score. And the other numbers entirely determine that one number. They do, and nothing else does.

And, if you take those team box score numbers across a season rather than a game, and you use stat software to run regressions on them -- that allow you to work out how much effect each number has (whether positive or negative) -- you can come up with a weighting formula such that a list going from the team with the best formula results to the team with the worst formula result correlates to a level in the mid 90s percentage-wise with a list going from the team with the best win-loss record to the team with the worst win-loss record.

Guess what else. the team's box score numbers are nothing but the individual players' box score numbers. Added up. Hence, if you use that same weighting formula (and any positional adjustments that seem relevant to you and better your results) on the individual player's on the team, on all teams, you have a metric for how good players are -- how much their numbers contribute to wins, which is the only way being "good" matters. The result is that you now have a way to compare players around the league. Duh.

Now, even the most brain-dead of these formulas, the NBA's EFF, correlates those two lists to @70%. PER correlates them to 88%. Kevin says that his version correlates them to @94%, as WP48 does as well.

All the same, tools of this kind are not the be-all and end-all. The most important problems they have are two: 1) a metric is a tool to understand what's already happened, not a tool to shape the future, and 2) all these metrics are statistical, meaning they are true across large numbers. The larger number you are analyzing the more useful the results.

Main point: once you've explained wins/losses what's left to explain? Rudimentary? Sure, in a sense. Basketball is a kid's game.

Either way, I'm ok with dealing Otto (not in love with it mind you) if it nets us Cousins & removes Beal's contract burden. This is because I view Cousins as arguably the best center in the league. In spite of the fairly low TS%, TOs & non-elite rebounding. ... Cousins & Wall are two all-star quality players on great contracts. They play two of the toughest positions in the league. They alone might not make us a contender but it gets us much closer than we've been in what seems forever. I believe there would be excellent synergy with the two. ... the key would be the pieces around these two. Say what you want about Rudy Gay, he's a quality starting NBA SF. We know Sato & Morris are at least capable rotation players. And if this deal is made we have excess bigs in Gortat & Mahinmi to which we can use to acquire additional depth on the perimeter. I'm confident we would have a significant opportunity to make the playoffs and even go further.

1. Well, removing Beal's contract would make almost any trade a win. If we don't also give up R1 picks. We are totally screwed right now. Cousins wouldn't help, but he'd hasten the day we start rebuilding totally. So, sure....

2. But, any trade for Cousins that didn't get rid of Beal would be a bad trade. If it both retained Beal and traded Porter, we'd be Sac'to East for the foreseeable future. If it also included R1 picks (which would be very very high ones), maybe Ted wouldn't need to buy a D-League team at all. We could be the D League team.

3. Although numbers & only numbers win games, you think Cousins may be the best C in the league - in spite of his numbers. Ok... tell me, is he the only player in the league who might be best at his position in spite of his numbers? Were there any previous great Centers who were best in the league at their time, in spite of their numbers? Wilt? Russell? Anybody? How about at another position? Was Michael great in spite of his numbers? Is LeBron? Just one example, please of any NBA player in any era who was "arguably the best" at his position in spite of his numbers.

[Meliorus]

Markieff + Trey Burke for Rudy Gay? We can finally get a real stretch 4.

[Ruzious]

Now that Beal appears on the right track, the chances of a mid-year trade to get Cousins goes from non-existent to possible. I guess the question is - what else needs to happen to make it more likely?

I think the Wiz are more much more likely to make a big trade if they continue to stay below .500. And Sac is more likely to trade as they continue to lose - and WCS languishes on the bench - their fans and local media (and Shaq) saying isn't he the type of player who should be getting PT on a losing team?

[Darko Miliminutes]

I am the only one, especially among Piston fans, on the planet to give up Andre and KCP for Beal and Gortat/Mahinmi or something else. But Beal and Drummond are the bigs. It's safe to assume you guys would, yeah?

[nate33]

Markieff + Trey Burke for Rudy Gay? We can finally get a real stretch 4.

Trey Burke has no value. If anything, he has negative value. So basically, this is Markieff for Gay. Think about it for a minute. They play the same position. If Sacramento is willing to do that trade, it must be because they think Markieff is better than Gay. And if that's the case, then why would we do the trade? Because we want a more expensive player?

I have little interest in Gay. I think Morris is better than him because at least he's a good man defender and a better rebounder. Our defense is horrible enough as it is under Brooks' leadership, let's not make it worse by downgrading our defensive personnel.

[TGW]

I am the only one, especially among Piston fans, on the planet to give up Andre and KCP for Beal and Gortat/Mahinmi or something else. But Beal and Drummond are the bigs. It's safe to assume you guys would, yeah?

The Wizards would have to add a lot more value to make that one happen

[Illmatic12]

Now that Beal appears on the right track, the chances of a mid-year trade to get Cousins goes from non-existent to possible. I guess the question is - what else needs to happen to make it more likely?

I think the Wiz are more much more likely to make a big trade if they continue to stay below .500. And Sac is more likely to trade as they continue to lose - and WCS languishes on the bench - their fans and local media (and Shaq) saying isn't he the type of player who should be getting PT on a losing team?

The more time passes, the lower Cousins value will be and the increased likelihood of a trade.

Interesting to look at some of these proposals - if Beal can continue his ascent as an All-Starish caliber player the Wizards could put together one of the more attractive offers for Boogie:


Every NBA team’s best (hypothetical) trade proposal to land DeMarcus Cousins

http://www.foxsports.com/nba/gallery/demarcus-cousins-kings-trade-rumors-proposals-lakers-bulls-cavs-warriors-heat-thunder-112116


Cousins + Collison for Beal + two 1sts? (I'd even throw in Oubre or Sato if need be)

Then trade Gortat for a wing player, say to Houston for Ariza.

Wall/Sato
McClellan/Thornton (or any vet min)
Porter/Ariza
Kieff/Nicholson
Cousins/Mahinmi

[Ruzious]

Now that Beal appears on the right track, the chances of a mid-year trade to get Cousins goes from non-existent to possible. I guess the question is - what else needs to happen to make it more likely?

I think the Wiz are more much more likely to make a big trade if they continue to stay below .500. And Sac is more likely to trade as they continue to lose - and WCS languishes on the bench - their fans and local media (and Shaq) saying isn't he the type of player who should be getting PT on a losing team?

The more time passes, the lower Cousins value will be and the increased likelihood of a trade.

Interesting to look at some of these proposals - if Beal can continue his ascent as an All-Starish caliber player the Wizards could put together one of the more attractive offers for Boogie:


Every NBA team’s best (hypothetical) trade proposal to land DeMarcus Cousins

http://www.foxsports.com/nba/gallery/demarcus-cousins-kings-trade-rumors-proposals-lakers-bulls-cavs-warriors-heat-thunder-112116


Cousins + Collison for Beal + two 1sts? (I'd even throw in Oubre or Sato if need be)

Then trade Gortat for a wing player, say to Houston for Ariza.

Wall/Sato
McClellan/Thornton (or any vet min)
Porter/Ariza
Kieff/Nicholson
Cousins/Mahinmi

Clever to trade Gortat for Ariza. Houston does miss Howard.

One thing that could help is if Oubre develops a lot faster than he has so far. If he does, maybe including him means we can keep the 2017 1st rounder. I'd really like to keep that pick - but your deals look good and are probably more realistic. Well done, imo.