Wizards 2019 Offseason Thread

[Ruzious]

But realistically, they won't exercise his option. He is then a UFA.

I think there are two different categories - correct me if I am wrong.

RFAs where we could get a "good deal". RFAs where that won't be the case.

And UFAs - then it should be best available at the price point - it doesn't matter if they have played for us before.

And Parker falls under that category of UFA's. Realistically, the Wiz don't have Bird rights to him - they will have to use the MLE, TPMLE or BAE to sign him - just like they would with any other UFA that they don't have Bird rights to.

[pancakes3]

they arrested kwame brown for possession of edibles.

[dckingsfan]

But realistically, they won't exercise his option. He is then a UFA.

I think there are two different categories - correct me if I am wrong.

RFAs where we could get a "good deal". RFAs where that won't be the case.

And UFAs - then it should be best available at the price point - it doesn't matter if they have played for us before.

And Parker falls under that category of UFA's. Realistically, the Wiz don't have Bird rights to him - they will have to use the MLE, TPMLE or BAE to sign him - just like they would with any other UFA that they don't have Bird rights to.

Exactly - so we shouldn't prioritize him over any other UFA. Right?

[DCZards]

I think Troy Brown will be a more valuable backup PG than Sato within 1-2 seasons.

That being said, imo our best option is still to hold onto Sato and sign him to a reasonable 3yr deal so we can trade him later.
He will get starter's minutes all of next season and put up good numbers, that's when you trade him because his value will drop once Wall comes back into the lineup. By 2020-21 you slide Brown in as the backup PG (and starter when Wall takes rest games)

Generally I would be careful about overrating Satoransky. I don't share the common opinion that he's a must-have or a core piece to our future.

I'm in the same place as it relates to Sato. Tomas has been solid this year, and with his skillset and D he's a nice piece to have in the rotation. But I thought he would have improved more this season than he has given the minutes and starting role.

If Sato can be had on a reasonable deal, sign him. What's reasonable? I'd say 5-6 mil year. I don't expect him to get offers much larger than that from other teams. He's currently getting paid just over $3 mil.

Last night, Drew Gooden said Troy Brown told him that he considers PG his best position. Hopefully, Troy can improve to the point that he's a combo guard, capable of backing up both Wall and Beal.

[Ruzious]

But realistically, they won't exercise his option. He is then a UFA.

I think there are two different categories - correct me if I am wrong.

RFAs where we could get a "good deal". RFAs where that won't be the case.

And UFAs - then it should be best available at the price point - it doesn't matter if they have played for us before.

And Parker falls under that category of UFA's. Realistically, the Wiz don't have Bird rights to him - they will have to use the MLE, TPMLE or BAE to sign him - just like they would with any other UFA that they don't have Bird rights to.

Exactly - so we shouldn't prioritize him over any other UFA. Right?

True that WE shouldn't and on paper - the organization shouldn't, but realistically factor in any team is going to want to have something to show for a trade of a talented young player (perhaps named Otto), and it's not looking like Portis is something to show. Almost whether or not it makes sense, signing Parker would prevent a PR embarrassment.

[nate33]

I think you absolutely have to try to re-sign Parker. No way am I prioritizing Dekker over Parker. Parker will cost more than Dekker and I wouldn't pay Jabari more than $8-10 million a year, but Parker has shown he can flat out score and is a good rebounder as well.

I'd try to keep Dekker though if I could get him on the cheap.

Parker is a UFA. I think he should be prioritized like any other UFA - best UFA available.

Dekker is an RFA - and also should be inexpensive. In my mind, two different things.

Porter is a RFA also - but he just isn't on my list. If he was inexpensive, I would jump on that too.

True - because the Wiz don't have Bird rights on Parker, and because they won't exercise his 20 mil option, the Wiz would have to use the MLE or some other exception to sign him.

The Wizards do have Bird Rights on Parker. They're "Non" Bird rights and not "Larry" Bird rights, but the distinction is largely irrelevant in this case. Non-Bird rights allow the Wizards to go up to his previous salary plus 20%, so that's as much as $24M. I don't think Parker will cost $24M (and if he does, then we should certainly let him walk).

The reason we might need to prioritize him over other UFA's is that we can only pay other UFA's the MLE (about $10M). We have the ability to pay Parker more. It might well be the case that Parker at, say, $13M, is a better deal than the best MLE UFA that we can convince to come here.

[nate33]

Genuinely interested to get people's thoughts on this: I'm a fan of Satoransky, I think what he's making now with a slight bump to maybe 5-6 million per is something I'm comfortable with. He was drafted, developed overseas, but he's been here what 3 years and he's turned into a solid rotational piece. However, if we get word that he wants 9-10 million a year, at what point do you draw the line? The reason I ask is this, Rajon Rondo is a free agent. He can't shoot worth a lick, but he's a pretty solid passer and rebounder, and by all accounts has a great basketball mind. I wouldn't mind taking a shot at him on a one year deal, but this is with the caveat that Satoransky's asking price gets too high.

I think Troy Brown will be a more valuable backup PG than Sato within 1-2 seasons.

That being said, imo our best option is still to hold onto Sato and sign him to a reasonable 3yr deal so we can trade him later.
He will get starter's minutes all of next season and put up good numbers, that's when you trade him because his value will drop once Wall comes back into the lineup. By 2020-21 you slide Brown in as the backup PG (and starter when Wall takes rest games)

Generally I would be careful about overrating Satoransky. I don't share the common opinion that he's a must-have or a core piece to our future.

While I understand that we should be cautious about overpaying Sato, I also think Sato is a really good player - better than a mere rotation guy. The guy averages 12, 7 and 5 per 36 with an ORtg north of 120 and plays good D. There's only 12 guys in the league who score at least 8 points per game with an ORtg over 120 (and played 2000+ minutes), and most of them are bigs.

Just going by raw win shares as a means of estimating value, Sato ranks 91st in the league. He ranks 96th in WS/48. That makes him good enough to be the 3rd best player on a bad team, or the 4th best player on a good team. Paying a 3rd/4th best player MLE money is actually a pretty good deal. That's about 9% of the cap and 7% of the luxtax threshold.

I'd love to get him for $5 or $6M. Who wouldn't? But the reality is, if someone offers an MLE deal, I'd probably match it.

[nate33]

I think for next season:

Brown, Sato (if on a very reasonable contract), (Wall won't play, my guess)
Beal, Brown
??
Bryant, Dekker
Howard/Mahimni (puke, gag)

I think you absolutely have to try to re-sign Parker. No way am I prioritizing Dekker over Parker. Parker will cost more than Dekker and I wouldn't pay Jabari more than $8-10 million a year, but Parker has shown he can flat out score and is a good rebounder as well.

I'd try to keep Dekker though if I could get him on the cheap.

Not trying to call you out specifically DCZards, but I'm getting tired of these hot takes where people are boldly saying they'd retain Parker for an absurdly low figure. Of course you would. It's a no-brainer to retain someone with that much obvious talent when he's young enough to improve.

I just think it's pretty absurd to expect him to cost so little. I guarantee someone will be willing to offer at least the full MLE and probably substantially more. I put the floor on his salary at $12M a year and it might be more like $16M if it's a 1-year deal.

The same goes for retaining Sato at $5M. Any fool would retain him at that low of a price. It's not even worth discussing.

[nate33]

But realistically, they won't exercise his option. He is then a UFA.

I think there are two different categories - correct me if I am wrong.

RFAs where we could get a "good deal". RFAs where that won't be the case.

And UFAs - then it should be best available at the price point - it doesn't matter if they have played for us before.

Parker is not restricted (assuming we decline the option). But we will still have Non-Bird rights, which means we can resign him to any salary we want up to $24M and it won't cost us our mid-level exception.

[dckingsfan]

And Parker falls under that category of UFA's. Realistically, the Wiz don't have Bird rights to him - they will have to use the MLE, TPMLE or BAE to sign him - just like they would with any other UFA that they don't have Bird rights to.

Exactly - so we shouldn't prioritize him over any other UFA. Right?

True that WE shouldn't and on paper - the organization shouldn't, but realistically factor in any team is going to want to have something to show for a trade of a talented young player (perhaps named Otto), and it's not looking like Portis is something to show. Almost whether or not it makes sense, signing Parker would prevent a PR embarrassment.

That's easily taken care of - let EG go

[DCZards]

Not trying to call you out specifically DCZards, but I'm getting tired of these hot takes where people are boldly saying they'd retain Parker for an absurdly low figure. Of course you would. It's a no-brainer to retain someone with that much obvious talent when he's young enough to improve.

I just think it's pretty absurd to expect him to cost so little. I guarantee someone will be willing to offer at least the full MLE and probably substantially more. I put the floor on his salary at $12M a year and it might be more like $16M if it's a 1-year deal.

The same goes for retaining Sato at $5M. Any fool would retain him at that low of a price. It's not even worth discussing.

I don't feel called out at all, Nate, particularly not by you. I'd be the first to admit that you're a lot smarter and more informed than I am--and most of us on this board--when it comes to this salary stuff.

I like what Jabari is doing and how hard he plays. For the right price, I'd like to see him on the roster next season. But $12-$16M sounds like an awful lot for him, given his poor defense and high turnover rate. But you're probably right that that's pretty much the going rate for a guy like Parker. I'm just not sure I would pay it.

[Ruzious]

But realistically, they won't exercise his option. He is then a UFA.

I think there are two different categories - correct me if I am wrong.

RFAs where we could get a "good deal". RFAs where that won't be the case.

And UFAs - then it should be best available at the price point - it doesn't matter if they have played for us before.

And Parker falls under that category of UFA's. Realistically, the Wiz don't have Bird rights to him - they will have to use the MLE, TPMLE or BAE to sign him - just like they would with any other UFA that they don't have Bird rights to.

I think I mis-read this paragraph from an article from SB Nation:

"Jabari Parker – Unrestricted. Non-Bird. Assuming the Wizards decline the Team Option for Parker (a good assumption), Paker would become an unrestricted free agent. They can still re-sign him using a salary cap exception. With the Non-Bird exception, they can sign him to a 4-year contract up to 120% of his previous salary ($24 Million) with 5% raises. Or they could use the MLE, TPMLE or BAE."

Apparently, they don't need to use the MLE, TPMLE or BAE to re-sign Parker. Not sure why the author mentioned those exceptions if we can use the "Non-Bird exception". Is the Non-Bird limited to one player per team - or some other reason?

[dckingsfan]

But realistically, they won't exercise his option. He is then a UFA.

I think there are two different categories - correct me if I am wrong.

RFAs where we could get a "good deal". RFAs where that won't be the case.

And UFAs - then it should be best available at the price point - it doesn't matter if they have played for us before.

And Parker falls under that category of UFA's. Realistically, the Wiz don't have Bird rights to him - they will have to use the MLE, TPMLE or BAE to sign him - just like they would with any other UFA that they don't have Bird rights to.

I think I mis-read this paragraph from an article from SB Nation:

"Jabari Parker – Unrestricted. Non-Bird. Assuming the Wizards decline the Team Option for Parker (a good assumption), Paker would become an unrestricted free agent. They can still re-sign him using a salary cap exception. With the Non-Bird exception, they can sign him to a 4-year contract up to 120% of his previous salary ($24 Million) with 5% raises. Or they could use the MLE, TPMLE or BAE."

Apparently, they don't need to use the MLE, TPMLE or BAE to re-sign Parker. Not sure why the author mentioned those exceptions if we can use the "Non-Bird exception". Is the Non-Bird limited to one player per team - or some other reason?

It doesn't seem like there is a limit on the number of non-Bird exemptions per team.

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2019/03/hoops-rumors-glossary-non-bird-rights-3.html

Teams are eligible to sign their own free agents using the Non-Bird exception for a salary starting at 120% of the player’s previous salary, 120% of the minimum salary, or the amount of a qualifying offer (if the player is a restricted free agent), whichever is greatest.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Genuinely interested to get people's thoughts on this: I'm a fan of Satoransky, I think what he's making now with a slight bump to maybe 5-6 million per is something I'm comfortable with. He was drafted, developed overseas, but he's been here what 3 years and he's turned into a solid rotational piece. However, if we get word that he wants 9-10 million a year, at what point do you draw the line? The reason I ask is this, Rajon Rondo is a free agent. He can't shoot worth a lick, but he's a pretty solid passer and rebounder, and by all accounts has a great basketball mind. I wouldn't mind taking a shot at him on a one year deal, but this is with the caveat that Satoransky's asking price gets too high.

I think Troy Brown will be a more valuable backup PG than Sato within 1-2 seasons.

That being said, imo our best option is still to hold onto Sato and sign him to a reasonable 3yr deal so we can trade him later.
He will get starter's minutes all of next season and put up good numbers, that's when you trade him because his value will drop once Wall comes back into the lineup. By 2020-21 you slide Brown in as the backup PG (and starter when Wall takes rest games)

Generally I would be careful about overrating Satoransky. I don't share the common opinion that he's a must-have or a core piece to our future.

I think he plays solid defense. He's a great role player. Hold on to Satoransky, unless another team overpays, which I doubt.

[Ruzious]

Genuinely interested to get people's thoughts on this: I'm a fan of Satoransky, I think what he's making now with a slight bump to maybe 5-6 million per is something I'm comfortable with. He was drafted, developed overseas, but he's been here what 3 years and he's turned into a solid rotational piece. However, if we get word that he wants 9-10 million a year, at what point do you draw the line? The reason I ask is this, Rajon Rondo is a free agent. He can't shoot worth a lick, but he's a pretty solid passer and rebounder, and by all accounts has a great basketball mind. I wouldn't mind taking a shot at him on a one year deal, but this is with the caveat that Satoransky's asking price gets too high.

I think Troy Brown will be a more valuable backup PG than Sato within 1-2 seasons.

That being said, imo our best option is still to hold onto Sato and sign him to a reasonable 3yr deal so we can trade him later.
He will get starter's minutes all of next season and put up good numbers, that's when you trade him because his value will drop once Wall comes back into the lineup. By 2020-21 you slide Brown in as the backup PG (and starter when Wall takes rest games)

Generally I would be careful about overrating Satoransky. I don't share the common opinion that he's a must-have or a core piece to our future.

I think he plays solid defense. He's a great role player. Hold on to Satoransky, unless another team overpays, which I doubt.

Agreed - he's not the type of player teams typically over-pay for. Otoh, all it takes is one team to topple the apple-cart - or something like that.

[Illmatic12]

Genuinely interested to get people's thoughts on this: I'm a fan of Satoransky, I think what he's making now with a slight bump to maybe 5-6 million per is something I'm comfortable with. He was drafted, developed overseas, but he's been here what 3 years and he's turned into a solid rotational piece. However, if we get word that he wants 9-10 million a year, at what point do you draw the line? The reason I ask is this, Rajon Rondo is a free agent. He can't shoot worth a lick, but he's a pretty solid passer and rebounder, and by all accounts has a great basketball mind. I wouldn't mind taking a shot at him on a one year deal, but this is with the caveat that Satoransky's asking price gets too high.

I think Troy Brown will be a more valuable backup PG than Sato within 1-2 seasons.

That being said, imo our best option is still to hold onto Sato and sign him to a reasonable 3yr deal so we can trade him later.
He will get starter's minutes all of next season and put up good numbers, that's when you trade him because his value will drop once Wall comes back into the lineup. By 2020-21 you slide Brown in as the backup PG (and starter when Wall takes rest games)

Generally I would be careful about overrating Satoransky. I don't share the common opinion that he's a must-have or a core piece to our future.

While I understand that we should be cautious about overpaying Sato, I also think Sato is a really good player - better than a mere rotation guy. The guy averages 12, 7 and 5 per 36 with an ORtg north of 120 and plays good D. There's only 12 guys in the league who score at least 8 points per game with an ORtg over 120 (and played 2000+ minutes), and most of them are bigs.

Just going by raw win shares as a means of estimating value, Sato ranks 91st in the league. He ranks 96th in WS/48. That makes him good enough to be the 3rd best player on a bad team, or the 4th best player on a good team. Paying a 3rd/4th best player MLE money is actually a pretty good deal. That's about 9% of the cap and 7% of the luxtax threshold.

I'd love to get him for $5 or $6M. Who wouldn't? But the reality is, if someone offers an MLE deal, I'd probably match it.

Moving forward I am skeptical on Sato improving or maintaining this production, which is why I'd be hesitant to make a major longterm commitment to him.

I'd pay him up to ~$8-10M/yr (anything above that would make me cringe).

[nate33]

I think Troy Brown will be a more valuable backup PG than Sato within 1-2 seasons.

That being said, imo our best option is still to hold onto Sato and sign him to a reasonable 3yr deal so we can trade him later.
He will get starter's minutes all of next season and put up good numbers, that's when you trade him because his value will drop once Wall comes back into the lineup. By 2020-21 you slide Brown in as the backup PG (and starter when Wall takes rest games)

Generally I would be careful about overrating Satoransky. I don't share the common opinion that he's a must-have or a core piece to our future.

While I understand that we should be cautious about overpaying Sato, I also think Sato is a really good player - better than a mere rotation guy. The guy averages 12, 7 and 5 per 36 with an ORtg north of 120 and plays good D. There's only 12 guys in the league who score at least 8 points per game with an ORtg over 120 (and played 2000+ minutes), and most of them are bigs.

Just going by raw win shares as a means of estimating value, Sato ranks 91st in the league. He ranks 96th in WS/48. That makes him good enough to be the 3rd best player on a bad team, or the 4th best player on a good team. Paying a 3rd/4th best player MLE money is actually a pretty good deal. That's about 9% of the cap and 7% of the luxtax threshold.

I'd love to get him for $5 or $6M. Who wouldn't? But the reality is, if someone offers an MLE deal, I'd probably match it.

Moving forward I am skeptical on Sato improving or maintaining this production, which is why I'd be hesitant to make a major longterm commitment to him.

I'd pay him up to ~$8-10M/yr (anything above that would make me cringe).

Yeah, I'd go up to the MLE, which is the most I expect to see anyone offer. I don't see an under-the-cap team going through all that effort to get under the cap, only to sign a 27-year-old role player, even if he is a good role player.

I'm not skeptical about him maintaining this production though. He's played long enough to face The Scouting Report. And at his age, he's too early to expect any athleticism decline. If anything, I think he'll get slightly better because he'll get a bit stronger and I believe his shooting is improving. (His 3P% has declined a bit from the fluky-good 46% last year, but by my eye, he's getting up more shots with a quicker release and less time to gather now.)

[dckingsfan]

While I understand that we should be cautious about overpaying Sato, I also think Sato is a really good player - better than a mere rotation guy. The guy averages 12, 7 and 5 per 36 with an ORtg north of 120 and plays good D. There's only 12 guys in the league who score at least 8 points per game with an ORtg over 120 (and played 2000+ minutes), and most of them are bigs.

Just going by raw win shares as a means of estimating value, Sato ranks 91st in the league. He ranks 96th in WS/48. That makes him good enough to be the 3rd best player on a bad team, or the 4th best player on a good team. Paying a 3rd/4th best player MLE money is actually a pretty good deal. That's about 9% of the cap and 7% of the luxtax threshold.

I'd love to get him for $5 or $6M. Who wouldn't? But the reality is, if someone offers an MLE deal, I'd probably match it.

Moving forward I am skeptical on Sato improving or maintaining this production, which is why I'd be hesitant to make a major longterm commitment to him.

I'd pay him up to ~$8-10M/yr (anything above that would make me cringe).

Yeah, I'd go up to the MLE, which is the most I expect to see anyone offer. I don't see an under-the-cap team going through all that effort to get under the cap, only to sign a 27-year-old role player, even if he is a good role player.

I'm not skeptical about him maintaining this production though. He's played long enough to face The Scouting Report. And at his age, he's too early to expect any athleticism decline. If anything, I think he'll get slightly better because he'll get a bit stronger and I believe his shooting is improving. (His 3P% has declined a bit from the fluky-good 46% last year, but by my eye, he's getting up more shots with a quicker release and less time to gather now.)

Yep, I think he is going to be a solid rotation guard and will be offered the MLE - and yes to matching. I also think his D will improve with a few less minutes per game.

[dangermouse]

Genuinely interested to get people's thoughts on this: I'm a fan of Satoransky, I think what he's making now with a slight bump to maybe 5-6 million per is something I'm comfortable with. He was drafted, developed overseas, but he's been here what 3 years and he's turned into a solid rotational piece. However, if we get word that he wants 9-10 million a year, at what point do you draw the line? The reason I ask is this, Rajon Rondo is a free agent. He can't shoot worth a lick, but he's a pretty solid passer and rebounder, and by all accounts has a great basketball mind. I wouldn't mind taking a shot at him on a one year deal, but this is with the caveat that Satoransky's asking price gets too high.

I think Troy Brown will be a more valuable backup PG than Sato within 1-2 seasons.

That being said, imo our best option is still to hold onto Sato and sign him to a reasonable 3yr deal so we can trade him later.
He will get starter's minutes all of next season and put up good numbers, that's when you trade him because his value will drop once Wall comes back into the lineup. By 2020-21 you slide Brown in as the backup PG (and starter when Wall takes rest games)

Generally I would be careful about overrating Satoransky. I don't share the common opinion that he's a must-have or a core piece to our future.

While I understand that we should be cautious about overpaying Sato, I also think Sato is a really good player - better than a mere rotation guy. The guy averages 12, 7 and 5 per 36 with an ORtg north of 120 and plays good D. There's only 12 guys in the league who score at least 8 points per game with an ORtg over 120 (and played 2000+ minutes), and most of them are bigs.

Just going by raw win shares as a means of estimating value, Sato ranks 91st in the league. He ranks 96th in WS/48. That makes him good enough to be the 3rd best player on a bad team, or the 4th best player on a good team. Paying a 3rd/4th best player MLE money is actually a pretty good deal. That's about 9% of the cap and 7% of the luxtax threshold.

I'd love to get him for $5 or $6M. Who wouldn't? But the reality is, if someone offers an MLE deal, I'd probably match it.

At the risk of sounding like an a**hole, if Sato is the 4th best player on your team, your team better be the Warriors or you ain't winning nuthin

[dangermouse]

Sato would be the perfect starting PG for the Bucks. Probably lesser so on the 76ers but same theme in mind (offence goes through a PF/SF, even though Ben Simmons starts at PG now I think he'll eventually move back to SF when he develops his jumper)