Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.

[Dat2U]

To me it isn't about the roster at all now that it "seems to be" set.

To me it is about Wes' rotations, PT, how his new offense works with Porzingis and Beal and seeing if any of Avidja, Kispert, Rui or Gafford take a major y that step forward.

Rationally, I am guessing we don't make the play-in. Irrationally, I am hoping something just clicks and the offensive/defensive schemas are greater than the individual parts.

At the end of the day, if Wes can't take that step - the roster won't make that much difference in the near future.

I cant believe they think the roster is set. They've gotta see the rest of the East and know the competition is thick. Another trade is definitely coming. I assume Shepp is just waiting for a team that's ready to move a disgruntled fringe star i.e. KP ( since they don't have the assets to trade for a real legit one)

Yeah, but Dat, we are writing off Davis and Gil. We need a defender/distributor and a star. Davis is supposed to be that first guy. And Kuz could become as good as he thinks. And Rui could pop a bit. And Butler is certainly better than we are expecting. So, let’s see. I say we have enough talent, even with defensive holes, to be on track for an eight to five seed, and primed for our GM to show the balls no previous Wiz GM has shown.

Not writing off Davis just yet. I just don't see where he gets the opportunity unless there's a trade or injury. I think he's firmly planted behind Beal, Barton & Kispert for minutes at the 2.

Kuz's biggest problem is that he thinks he's really good and needs to take the shots to back that up. That hasn't changed no matter who he's played with. He had terrible shot selection next to LeBrob abd a healthy AD.

Rui is what I said he would become when he was drafted. Mike Scott. An off the bench scoring specialist who gives you nothing else on either side of the court. I have no hopes that he suddenly develops a cerebral game.

Barton is your typical 7th/8th man. Rotation caliber player who's neutral offensively will little defense. He won't kill you out there and will ocassionally get hot but he's not a difference maker.

[nate33]

G Wright
G Beal
F Avdija
F Porzingis
C Gafford

KP may not like it but this is probably the best overall lineup they could put on the floor. Still run through KP in the high post but with the addition of lob threat in DG. We'd probaly need to see more playmaking/shooting from Avdija for this lineul to work offensively.

KP is maybe a 30 mpg player. More than that and he'll get hurt. Gafford is a 25 mpg player. More than that and he loses effectiveness. So they can only play together for 7 minutes.

It might be useful in certain crunch time lineups. But for the most part, I wouldn't plan to play them together much.

[dckingsfan]

I cant believe they think the roster is set. They've gotta see the rest of the East and know the competition is thick. Another trade is definitely coming. I assume Shepp is just waiting for a team that's ready to move a disgruntled fringe star i.e. KP ( since they don't have the assets to trade for a real legit one)

Yeah, but Dat, we are writing off Davis and Gil. We need a defender/distributor and a star. Davis is supposed to be that first guy. And Kuz could become as good as he thinks. And Rui could pop a bit. And Butler is certainly better than we are expecting. So, let’s see. I say we have enough talent, even with defensive holes, to be on track for an eight to five seed, and primed for our GM to show the balls no previous Wiz GM has shown.

Not writing off Davis just yet. I just don't see where he gets the opportunity unless there's a trade or injury. I think he's firmly planted behind Beal, Barton & Kispert for minutes at the 2.

Kuz's biggest problem is that he thinks he's really good and needs to take the shots to back that up. That hasn't changed no matter who he's played with. He had terrible shot selection next to LeBrob abd a healthy AD.

Rui is what I said he would become when he was drafted. Mike Scott. An off the bench scoring specialist who gives you nothing else on either side of the court. I have no hopes that he suddenly develops a cerebral game.

Barton is your typical 7th/8th man. Rotation caliber player who's neutral offensively will little defense. He won't kill you out there and will ocassionally get hot but he's not a difference maker.

I really hope they have a good plan to develop Davis...

[dckingsfan]

G Wright
G Beal
F Avdija
F Porzingis
C Gafford

KP may not like it but this is probably the best overall lineup they could put on the floor. Still run through KP in the high post but with the addition of lob threat in DG. We'd probaly need to see more playmaking/shooting from Avdija for this lineul to work offensively.

KP is maybe a 30 mpg player. More than that and he'll get hurt. Gafford is a 25 mpg player. More than that and he loses effectiveness. So they can only play together for 7 minutes.

It might be useful in certain crunch time lineups. But for the most part, I wouldn't plan to play them together much.

I would take 5 minutes a game overlap...

[barelyawake]

Dat, while your characterizations are true, I think you are focusing on the negative of each part, rather than evaluating our bench versus other benches in the league, or our bench in previous years.

What Barton is going to be tasked to do is come in and hit shots when nothing else is working. He can do that, and he’s more of a bulldog than you give credit. I’ll remind this board didn’t think Ariza or old man Pierce would amount to much either.

Rui I don’t expect to be a star. But, if he can go on hot streaks and be counted on to be the focus of the offense off the bench, that makes for more wins and ups his trade value. Remember, in this new system, distributors not shooters are creating the shots.

Davis will see time at the one, and some of those others will see time at the three, and there will be injuries.

More but gotta run to meeting…

[dckingsfan]

Davis will see time at the one, and some of those others will see time at the three, and there will be injuries…

This is going to be one of the fascinating parts of the rotations. How Wes deals with injuries.

I hope that they have a plan for Davis to develop and it has already started (this could easily be already underway). I hope that he starts in the G league and gets lots of development time vs. just traveling and sitting at the end of the bench. I guess I hope the same thing for Davis, Todd, Maker & Carey. Develop them and then make a decision.

And I hope that Wes sticks with his 10 man rotation and if he has an injury or two it becomes an 8 or 9 man rotation.

I hope that we check this out as the season progresses...

[payitforward]

I cant believe they think the roster is set. They've gotta see the rest of the East and know the competition is thick. Another trade is definitely coming. I assume Shepp is just waiting for a team that's ready to move a disgruntled fringe star i.e. KP ( since they don't have the assets to trade for a real legit one)

Yeah, but Dat, we are writing off Davis and Gil. We need a defender/distributor and a star. Davis is supposed to be that first guy. And Kuz could become as good as he thinks. And Rui could pop a bit. And Butler is certainly better than we are expecting. So, let’s see. I say we have enough talent, even with defensive holes, to be on track for an eight to five seed, and primed for our GM to show the balls no previous Wiz GM has shown.

I'm not sure I understand your post, barely. You are suggesting that

1. Johnny Davis, the guy we saw in SL is going to be the "defender/distributor" who -- as a rookie! -- can drive us as high as the #5 seed in the East?
2. Kyle Kuzma may become "a star" this year?
3. Barton is better than, for example, KCP overall?
4. (Assuming that the top 4 in the East are unchanged from last year) There is some meaningful chance -- small but real -- that we are a better team than every single one of the Raptors, Bulls, Hawks, Nets, Cavs, Hornets & Knicks?
5. &, minimally, if I understand you right "...we have enough talent... to be on track" to be better than 4 of those 7 teams?

The #8 team won 44 games last year. Since you don't suggest they're going to get worse, I assume this means that you think we have enough talent on our team to go from a 25-44 closing run to a 45-win season.

Is that right?

[barelyawake]

No, sorta (not really), Yes because of the situation, Yes, and with a trade at trade deadline yes. Stop comparing us to last year. We are an entirely different team.

If you want more you need to wait. Busy weekend.

[payitforward]

...Stop comparing us to last year. We are an entirely different team....

Really? Wow... that's great! & here I thought that 10 of the 15 players who ended last season as Wizards were still Wizards! The least extensive set of off season changes since Tommy took over.

KCP, Ish, Sato, Neto & Bryant are gone. Instead of them we have Barton, Morris, Wright, Davis & Gibson.

Overall, I like Morris, Barton & Wright as upgrades over KCP, Ish & Sato. That's as far as I think meaningful changes go. Short term, that is -- Davis being a rookie.

For the rest, positive projections depend on being convinced that KP will do what he's never done before & be healthy all season to do it for big minutes. If so, that will be great!

[nate33]

...Stop comparing us to last year. We are an entirely different team....

Really? Wow... that's great! & here I thought that 10 of the 15 players who ended last season as Wizards were still Wizards!

I don't think that's fair. You can't just ignore the wholesale changes Sheppard made at the Trade Deadline. We ARE an entirely different team than the team that started last season. Here are the changes, ranked by minutes played prior to the Trade Deadline:

Kuzma --> Kuzma
KCP --> Barton
Beal --> Beal
Dinwiddie --> Morris
Avdija --> Avdija*
Harrell --> Porzingis
Gafford --> Gafford
Kispert --> Kispert*
Neto --> Wright
Holiday --> Davis
Bertans --> Gibson
Hachimura --> Hachimura
Bryant --> Carey Jr.

Of the 13 rotation players at the start of the year, 7 of them have been replaced. And two of the guys remaining (Kispert and Avdija) were first or second-year players last year and therefore have a significant chance of improving enough to become a substantially different player from last season.

I'm not suggesting the team will be a lot better than last year, but I think it's fair to say that Sheppard wasn't satisfied with the team last year and is clearly TRYING to shake things up. The starting lineup will likely be Beal, Kuzma and 3 new starters. I don't think barelyawake is incorrect in characterizing that as an entirely different team.

[nate33]

G Wright
G Beal
F Avdija
F Porzingis
C Gafford

KP may not like it but this is probably the best overall lineup they could put on the floor. Still run through KP in the high post but with the addition of lob threat in DG. We'd probaly need to see more playmaking/shooting from Avdija for this lineul to work offensively.

KP is maybe a 30 mpg player. More than that and he'll get hurt. Gafford is a 25 mpg player. More than that and he loses effectiveness. So they can only play together for 7 minutes.

It might be useful in certain crunch time lineups. But for the most part, I wouldn't plan to play them together much.

I would take 5 minutes a game overlap...

Sure. But that's not enough time that we should really gear our system to maximize that duo. It's a duo that is likely to be on the court for less than 10% of the total minutes this season (and probably a lot less than that after factoring injuries).

[dckingsfan]

KP is maybe a 30 mpg player. More than that and he'll get hurt. Gafford is a 25 mpg player. More than that and he loses effectiveness. So they can only play together for 7 minutes.

It might be useful in certain crunch time lineups. But for the most part, I wouldn't plan to play them together much.

I would take 5 minutes a game overlap...

Sure. But that's not enough time that we should really gear our system to maximize that duo. It's a duo that is likely to be on the court for less than 10% of the total minutes this season (and probably a lot less than that after factoring injuries).

With a 10 man rotation - I can see several of these lineups coming into play. It will be interesting if Wes stumbles on any "killer" rotations.

The lineups and rotations are going to be fascinating this year.

[payitforward]

...Stop comparing us to last year. We are an entirely different team....

Really? Wow... that's great! & here I thought that 10 of the 15 players who ended last season as Wizards were still Wizards!

I don't think that's fair. You can't just ignore the wholesale changes Sheppard made at the Trade Deadline. We ARE an entirely different team than the team that started last season. Here are the changes, ranked by minutes played prior to the Trade Deadline:

Kuzma --> Kuzma
KCP --> Barton
Beal --> Beal
Dinwiddie --> Morris
Avdija --> Avdija*
Harrell --> Porzingis
Gafford --> Gafford
Kispert --> Kispert*
Neto --> Wright
Holiday --> Davis
Bertans --> Gibson
Hachimura --> Hachimura
Bryant --> Carey Jr.

Of the 13 rotation players at the start of the year, 7 of them have been replaced. And two of the guys remaining (Kispert and Avdija) were first or second-year players last year and therefore have a significant chance of improving enough to become a substantially different player from last season.

I'm not suggesting the team will be a lot better than last year, but I think it's fair to say that Sheppard wasn't satisfied with the team last year and is clearly TRYING to shake things up. The starting lineup will likely be Beal, Kuzma and 3 new starters. I don't think barelyawake is incorrect in characterizing that as an entirely different team.

You're right. & so was barelyawake.
&, of course, I was completely in favor of both the biggest change by trade & signing Wright! & said so. Both decisions were extremely solid & appropriate for us -- &, for that matter, I've been talking about Monte Morris as a target for us since the 2017 draft.

The problem, IMO, is that trades of that kind really can't transform this team. & that is what it needs. Obviously.

In any case, all the positivity right now rests on a single 2-part speculative dream -- that KP a) play like a star, & b) play an entire season (i.e. starter minutes: say something approaching 2400 minutes). He's never done the former for an extended time, & he hasn't done the latter since his first two years in the league (when, btw, he by no means did the former!).

Yet, nothing else, nothing at all, fits the model of "transform the team." Only this double long shot.

It's a long shot that in his 8th season KP suddenly starts playing like a star. It's not a coin flip that he does it. The chances are very small.

It's also a long shot that KP plays a full season. It's been six years since he did that. So, again, it's not a coin flip. The likelihood is very small.

IOW, this is not like flipping heads twice in a row -- which is already unlikely: there's a 1 in 4 chance of doing that -- this is two genuine longshots each of which has come through, b/c one is no good w/o the other.

[DCZards]

You're right. & so was barelyawake.
&, of course, I was completely in favor of both the biggest change by trade & signing Wright! & said so. Both decisions were extremely solid & appropriate for us -- &, for that matter, I've been talking about Monte Morris as a target for us since the 2017 draft.

The problem, IMO, is that trades of that kind really can't transform this team. & that is what it needs. Obviously.

In any case, all the positivity right now rests on a single 2-part speculative dream -- that KP a) play like a star, & b) play an entire season (i.e. starter minutes: say something approaching 2400 minutes). He's never done the former for an extended time, & he hasn't done the latter since his first two years in the league (when, btw, he by no means did the former!).

I don't think it's fair (or accurate) to say that "all the positivity" rests on a speculative dream. For at least some of us, the positivity rests on Beal getting back to being more like the Beal we know and love...and he and KP forming a potent duo.

It also rests on what many of us expect to be significantly improved PG play with the addition of Morris & Wright. And it rests on the continued improvement of the youngin's, especially Deni.

At least that's where most of the positivity rests for this Zards fan.

[doclinkin]

You're right. & so was barelyawake.
&, of course, I was completely in favor of both the biggest change by trade & signing Wright! & said so. Both decisions were extremely solid & appropriate for us -- &, for that matter, I've been talking about Monte Morris as a target for us since the 2017 draft.

The problem, IMO, is that trades of that kind really can't transform this team. & that is what it needs. Obviously.

In any case, all the positivity right now rests on a single 2-part speculative dream -- that KP a) play like a star, & b) play an entire season (i.e. starter minutes: say something approaching 2400 minutes). He's never done the former for an extended time, & he hasn't done the latter since his first two years in the league (when, btw, he by no means did the former!).

I don't think it's fair (or accurate) to say that "all the positivity" rests on a speculative dream. For at least some of us, the positivity rests on Beal getting back to being more like the Beal we know and love...and he and KP forming a potent duo.

It also rests on what many of us expect to be significantly improved PG play with the addition of Morris & Wright. And it rests on the continued improvement of the youngin's, especially Deni.

At least that's where most of the positivity rests for this Zards fan.

That and that a coach known for player development also proves better with more experience and a full offseason to improve the team. And players who prove a better fit. And less of an implicit power struggle with the star player with the player's best pal on the team traded for players who know the coach in style and scheme.

[dckingsfan]

That and that a coach known for player development also proves better with more experience and a full offseason to improve the team. And players who prove a better fit. And less of an implicit power struggle with the star player with the player's best pal on the team traded for players who know the coach in style and scheme.

Yep, to me it isn't about Beal or the rest of the roster... it is how Wes manages the rotations and schemas. They have to be better than their collective parts to make noise.

[DCZards]

You're right. & so was barelyawake.
&, of course, I was completely in favor of both the biggest change by trade & signing Wright! & said so. Both decisions were extremely solid & appropriate for us -- &, for that matter, I've been talking about Monte Morris as a target for us since the 2017 draft.

The problem, IMO, is that trades of that kind really can't transform this team. & that is what it needs. Obviously.

In any case, all the positivity right now rests on a single 2-part speculative dream -- that KP a) play like a star, & b) play an entire season (i.e. starter minutes: say something approaching 2400 minutes). He's never done the former for an extended time, & he hasn't done the latter since his first two years in the league (when, btw, he by no means did the former!).

I don't think it's fair (or accurate) to say that "all the positivity" rests on a speculative dream. For at least some of us, the positivity rests on Beal getting back to being more like the Beal we know and love...and he and KP forming a potent duo.

It also rests on what many of us expect to be significantly improved PG play with the addition of Morris & Wright. And it rests on the continued improvement of the youngin's, especially Deni.

At least that's where most of the positivity rests for this Zards fan.

That and that a coach known for player development also proves better with more experience and a full offseason to improve the team. And players who prove a better fit. And less of an implicit power struggle with the star player with the player's best pal on the team traded for players who know the coach in style and scheme.

Wes Jr. likely sees this as the real start of his career as HC of the Zards. He’s had a full year to get to know (and help develop) the returning players. In Morris, the team added an on court leader that Wes Jr. knows and trusts…an important piece for any coach.

The team also added a player (KP) with some of the abilities of the back-to-back MVP (Joker) that Wes Jr. helped develop in Denver. It will be interesting to see how Wes continues to build on KP’s role as a playmaker and focal point of the offense.

Wes Jr. arrived in DC with the reputation as a defensive coach. The Zards added one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA (Wright) as well as another potentially excellent defender (Davis). On top of that, the young Deni is rapidly becoming one of the best defensive forwards in the NBA. And KP gives the Zards another rim protector to go along with Gaff.

[payitforward]

You're right. & so was barelyawake.
&, of course, I was completely in favor of both the biggest change by trade & signing Wright! & said so. Both decisions were extremely solid & appropriate for us -- &, for that matter, I've been talking about Monte Morris as a target for us since the 2017 draft.

The problem, IMO, is that trades of that kind really can't transform this team. & that is what it needs. Obviously.

In any case, all the positivity right now rests on a single 2-part speculative dream -- that KP a) play like a star, & b) play an entire season (i.e. starter minutes: say something approaching 2400 minutes). He's never done the former for an extended time, & he hasn't done the latter since his first two years in the league (when, btw, he by no means did the former!).

I don't think it's fair (or accurate) to say that "all the positivity" rests on a speculative dream. For at least some of us, the positivity rests on Beal getting back to being more like the Beal we know and love...and he and KP forming a potent duo.

It also rests on what many of us expect to be significantly improved PG play with the addition of Morris & Wright. And it rests on the continued improvement of the youngin's, especially Deni.

At least that's where most of the positivity rests for this Zards fan.

Well, first off, to be sure we are all hoping for Beal to return to form.
Plus, I agree we should expect significant improvement in PG play.
& I'm also hopeful for Deni's continued development -- Kispert too for that matter.

My phrase "all the positivity" was a reaction to the jaw-dropping claim that we are in line to claim the 5th to 8th spot in the East. Not to mention one in which someone (I don't recall who) suggested we are a 45-48 win team, sort of at the level of Toronto.

I mean... ok, fans always live on hope. But those kinds of "positivity" require that Porzingis do what he's never done in his entire career -- play a full season at a high level of productivity.

What happens to that positivity when the dream doesn't come true? Don't you think most of the air comes out of the balloon?

You, OTOH, haven't made that kind of claim. You've said that you're looking forward to what Beal & KP can do together. Of course! Me too.

Let's recall that two seasons ago, with "the Beal we know and love," we went 34-38. & we reached those heights only because Russ somehow did a 23-game imitation of his old self. We were 17-32 when he began his tear.

We closed that season 17-6 & started the next one 10-3 -- wow! Of course, Wizards fans were psyched.

One other thing worth pointing to: no one has mentioned the fact that at the deadline last year we traded away the guy who almost certainly had been our best player up to that point, by a lot, a player without whom we'd likely have won about 5 games fewer than our paltry total: Montrezl Harrell.

All the above gives us good reasons, I would say, to think that this year, like last year, we are a lot more likely to win 35 games than we are to win 45. We'll see.

Then again... I suppose if you can start a season 17-31 & close it 17-6, then start the next season 10-3 & close it 25-44... who in hell knows what's going to happen next!

[DCZards]

One other thing worth pointing to: no one has mentioned the fact that at the deadline last year we traded away the guy who almost certainly had been our best player up to that point, by a lot, a player without whom we'd likely have won about 5 games fewer than our paltry total: Montrezl Harrell.

It's also worth pointing out that Harrell was unhappy as a Zard...complained about not getting the ball passed to him.

https://www.sportsmanor.com/nba-news-heres-why-montrezl-harrell-and-kcp-got-into-a-physical-fight-during-the-halftime-break/

...even complained about the coaching.

"I feel like we go into the game with a set plan or whatever we have laid out for the instance of that night and it's just going to be what works. That's not the case, man. We've gotta learn how to play on the fly and make adjustments and be able to fix it and try to correct things once they happen. I feel like we just kind of stay with what we're trying to make work, I guess," Harrell said.
https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/wizards/montrezl-harrell-says-wizards-werent-prepared-suns-mood-expletive-sucks

Don't get me wrong I absolutely love Trez's fire and effort. But it became clear that he was a locker room problem...and that's the last thing a rookie coach needed. So Harrell needed to go.

Turns out the Zards got a better player at the trade deadline anyway...KP.

[montestewart]

One other thing worth pointing to: no one has mentioned the fact that at the deadline last year we traded away the guy who almost certainly had been our best player up to that point, by a lot, a player without whom we'd likely have won about 5 games fewer than our paltry total: Montrezl Harrell.

It's also worth pointing out that Harrell was unhappy as a Zard...complained about not getting the ball passed to him.

https://www.sportsmanor.com/nba-news-heres-why-montrezl-harrell-and-kcp-got-into-a-physical-fight-during-the-halftime-break/

...even complained about the coaching.

"I feel like we go into the game with a set plan or whatever we have laid out for the instance of that night and it's just going to be what works. That's not the case, man. We've gotta learn how to play on the fly and make adjustments and be able to fix it and try to correct things once they happen. I feel like we just kind of stay with what we're trying to make work, I guess," Harrell said.
https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/wizards/montrezl-harrell-says-wizards-werent-prepared-suns-mood-expletive-sucks

Don't get me wrong I absolutely love Trez's fire and effort. But it became clear that he was a locker room problem...and that's the last thing a rookie coach needed. So Harrell needed to go.

Turns out the Zards got a better player at the trade deadline anyway...KP.

Great discussion between the positive realists and the positive hyper-realists. This thread is turning into everything the dck said it would. It probably should be stickied during the season for more of this level of analysis.

I never played organized ball at a very competitive level so nothing ever forced me to think too much about what we were doing (just win). Outside of watching games, I’ve learned more about basketball from PIF, Zards, Nate, Doc, Dat, CCJ, Kev (really, everyone here), then from any other source, and some of these seasons I would have completely lost interest without it.