2012 NBA Draft - Part III

[Nivek]

Kevin and ccj, among your favorite players, who are the best 3 pt shooters?

I actually created a little measure for this. The measure combines a player's all-around score with 3pt shooting (both volume and accuracy). The top 3pt shooters combined with enough overall game (and their rating according to YODA):

- Denmon -- top 10 pick (even after accounting for size)
- Crowder -- top 5 pick
- Beal -- top 5 pick
- Lillard -- lotto pick
- English -- late 1st/early 2nd
- John Jenkins -- late 2nd
- Doron Lamb -- early 2nd
- Mike Dixon -- late 1st
- Reggie Hamilton -- early 2nd
- Chris Johnson -- late 2nd

Funny how Crowder's name keeps coming up.

[rockymac52]

Kevin and ccj, among your favorite players, who are the best 3 pt shooters?

I actually created a little measure for this. The measure combines a player's all-around score with 3pt shooting (both volume and accuracy). The top 3pt shooters combined with enough overall game (and their rating according to YODA):

- Denmon -- top 10 pick (even after accounting for size)
- Crowder -- top 5 pick
- Beal -- top 5 pick
- Lillard -- lotto pick
- English -- late 1st/early 2nd
- John Jenkins -- late 2nd
- Doron Lamb -- early 2nd
- Mike Dixon -- late 1st
- Reggie Hamilton -- early 2nd
- Chris Johnson -- late 2nd

Funny how Crowder's name keeps coming up.

So this is the rankings of all the players IF we are trying to get someone who can shoot the three ball in particular but also has other aspects of their game? Sorry, could you explain that a little bit more? I don't follow, I don't think.

[Nivek]

rockymac: Your assessment of Ratliffe raises a few questions for me. YODA likes him as an early 2nd round pick. His wingspan appears to be about average -- I'll be interested to see what his standing reach is. The vertical, agility and speed scores listed on DX (don't know when they were done) are below average.

Why would rebounding be a weakness? He averaged 11.4 per 40 this season, which is about average for a PF prospect in YODA.

[Zonkerbl]

Crowder -- really? Didn't he only shoot like 35% from the college three? Isn't that what Jan shot in Europe?

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Jan ... 402/stats/

I'm thinking MKG + Crowder, but that only works if Crowder's 3 pt shooting makes up for MKG's lack thereof.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Kevin and ccj, among your favorite players, who are the best 3 pt shooters?

I actually created a little measure for this. The measure combines a player's all-around score with 3pt shooting (both volume and accuracy). The top 3pt shooters combined with enough overall game (and their rating according to YODA):

- Denmon -- top 10 pick (even after accounting for size)
- Crowder -- top 5 pick
- Beal -- top 5 pick
- Lillard -- lotto pick
- English -- late 1st/early 2nd
- John Jenkins -- late 2nd
- Doron Lamb -- early 2nd
- Mike Dixon -- late 1st
- Reggie Hamilton -- early 2nd
- Chris Johnson -- late 2nd

Funny how Crowder's name keeps coming up.

If I were a GM, I would add these guys to the Wizards: Zeller, Crowder, Barton, Denmon or Machado

I would waive Shelvin, realizing he will catch on somewhere else.

I would trade down to teams willing to take Blatche and Crawford. In return, I would get back expiring contracts or guys easily bought out.

The Wizards would be minus Mack, Crawford, Blatche, Lewis, and two of Evans, Mason, and Almond. You know I am biased, and would keep Almond over Evans and Mason. Cartier is for real and he deserves a spot IMO.

I would look to trade Booker because I think James Singleton is better, and mainly because Trevor is so good he can fetch a decent trade.

[Nivek]

Kevin and ccj, among your favorite players, who are the best 3 pt shooters?

I actually created a little measure for this. The measure combines a player's all-around score with 3pt shooting (both volume and accuracy). The top 3pt shooters combined with enough overall game (and their rating according to YODA):

- Denmon -- top 10 pick (even after accounting for size)
- Crowder -- top 5 pick
- Beal -- top 5 pick
- Lillard -- lotto pick
- English -- late 1st/early 2nd
- John Jenkins -- late 2nd
- Doron Lamb -- early 2nd
- Mike Dixon -- late 1st
- Reggie Hamilton -- early 2nd
- Chris Johnson -- late 2nd

Funny how Crowder's name keeps coming up.

So this is the rankings of all the players IF we are trying to get someone who can shoot the three ball in particular but also has other aspects of their game? Sorry, could you explain that a little bit more? I don't follow, I don't think.

I didn't explain it very well. I wanted to do something more than just look at 3pt shooting to identify shooters for a team that needs them. Because, there's limited use for a pure specialist.

So, I took final rating in YODA, then sorta adjusted it by his 3pt shooting -- both accuracy and volume. The guys on that list are the ones in this draft with the best score in the measure that combines the all-around score with 3pt shooting.

Here are the top 10 players with the highest scores in this measure (which I have labeled in my spreadsheet "3YODA":

1. Battier
2. Ray Allen
3. Stephen Curry
4. Kyrie Irving
5. Kevin Durant
6. Mario Chalmers
7. Ty Lawson
8. Kyle Korver
9. Jason Kidd (who actually shot a lot of 3s as a soph, and hit 36.5% of them)
10. Mike Dunleavy, Jr.

Then followed by Danny Green, Penny Hardaway, Vince Carter, Denmon, Chris Paul, Iverson, Granger, Jason Richardson, Arenas, Crowder

Basically, this is an attempt to find good players who shoot the 3 well.

[rockymac52]

rockymac: Your assessment of Ratliffe raises a few questions for me. YODA likes him as an early 2nd round pick. His wingspan appears to be about average -- I'll be interested to see what his standing reach is. The vertical, agility and speed scores listed on DX (don't know when they were done) are below average.

Why would rebounding be a weakness? He averaged 11.4 per 40 this season, which is about average for a PF prospect in YODA.

I'm curious to see how he measures out as well. Mizzou played a very fast paced style of play in the past, and while I wouldn't describe Cardo as fast, it wasn't like he was lagging behind or anything. In fact, he'd be the first one up the court fairly frequently which resulted in easy fastbreak buckets.

As far as his rebounding, I can't back that up as well. I've just never been that impressed with him as a rebounder. Mizzou played 4 guards and 1 big man at all times this season, so whenever Ratliffe was on the floor, he was the only big man, with the next tallest person on the court for Mizzou being Kim English at 6'6" or 6'5". I've always felt that should result in more rebounds for the true big man, but maybe that isn't statistically sound.

[Nivek]

Crowder -- really? Didn't he only shoot like 35% from the college three? Isn't that what Jan shot in Europe?

He did shoot 35% from 3pt range -- and also provided (per 40) 10+ rebounds, 2.5 assists, 3+ steals, 1+ blocks, and just 1.5 turnovers. And did it for a team that finished 2nd in the Big East.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Nivek, Reggie Hamilton IIRC led the nation in scoring and put up as good stats as Lillard's, in a tougher conference. However, Hamilton was HORRIFICALLY BAD at Portsmouth. He is a miniature SG, who I very seriously doubt will be drafted.

That said, I would invite him to Wizards camp because I bet he's better than Earl Boykins, and Little Earl has been a very good role player.

Reggie Hamilton, Drew Gordon, Kevin Jones, JAE Crowder, and my guy Will Barton are all underrated.

[Zonkerbl]

Boykins! That's the name I was trying to remember.

[Zonkerbl]

Crowder -- really? Didn't he only shoot like 35% from the college three? Isn't that what Jan shot in Europe?

He did shoot 35% from 3pt range -- and also provided (per 40) 10+ rebounds, 2.5 assists, 3+ steals, 1+ blocks, and just 1.5 turnovers. And did it for a team that finished 2nd in the Big East.

Ok, but would a starting five of Wall, Crowder, MKG, Nene, and KS have enough 3 pt shooting?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

But while he can shoot the ball pretty well, and it's his best skill offensively, it's hard to see him being one of those 3 point specialists in the NBA (the Daequan Cook's), because his shot doesn't seem as automatic as those types of players'. Here's a clip of Mike Miller draining threes at the Heat practice facility two years ago. He makes 27/30 three pointers with ease.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=771MZUtK8Tk[/youtube]



(And as well as MM shoots the three, Steve Novak is even better.)

And to think, Wizards (past) luck had it that he and Arenas were on the same team but both were always hurt. I'm sorry but IMHO Mike Miller should be a better NBA player. He's just hurt too frequently and his lack of mobility doesn't allow him to get in a comfort zone. Regardless, when you can shoot like that you should KNOW your shot is going in. Mike Miller IMO must doubt himself or something in games. As a Wizard he was frustratingly passive. If I were a coach I fine him for not taking enough shots when open.

Miller is the anti-Jordan Crawford.

Thanks for that clip, rocky. I think Shurna is the only one knocking on the door with that kind of shooting.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I like too many players in this draft to keep them all straight in my mind.

MKG, Robinson, and Beal are getting attention for the superstar athleticism; but guys like Crowder, Denmon, Green, Kevin Jones, Drew Gordon, and Tyler Zeller take me back to a time when guys came from college to the NCAA as men ready to play NBA ball efficiently.

[Nivek]

Crowder -- really? Didn't he only shoot like 35% from the college three? Isn't that what Jan shot in Europe?

He did shoot 35% from 3pt range -- and also provided (per 40) 10+ rebounds, 2.5 assists, 3+ steals, 1+ blocks, and just 1.5 turnovers. And did it for a team that finished 2nd in the Big East.

Ok, but would a starting five of Wall, Crowder, MKG, Nene, and KS have enough 3 pt shooting?

Probably not, but then I probably wouldn't pick both Crowder and MKG. If I was picking 2, 3 or 4, I'd take Beal and then move back into the late 1st round for Crowder. Then the starting 5 would be Wall, Beal, Crowder, Nene and Seraphin. And yeah, I think there'd be enough shooting in that lineup.

[Zonkerbl]

Well, that's my question. If we're "stuck" picking MKG, then what do we do?

[Nivek]

Well, that's my question. If we're "stuck" picking MKG, then what do we do?

In that event, pick MKG and then (assuming DX rankings are reasonably accurate) use that 1st 2nd round pick to take Will Barton (mid-1st round grade in YODA) and then the second one (or maybe move up a little with some cash or a future 2nd) and take Denmon as well.

[Zonkerbl]

Well, that's my question. If we're "stuck" picking MKG, then what do we do?

In that event, pick MKG and then (assuming DX rankings are reasonably accurate) use that 1st 2nd round pick to take Will Barton (mid-1st round grade in YODA) and then the second one (or maybe move up a little with some cash or a future 2nd) and take Denmon as well.

Will Barton also only shot 35%:
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Will-Barton-5737/

Might as well just take Jae Crowder if he's available. Or trade Booker to move up in the draft -- I'm really worried that, as a hustle player, he will not be able to overcome his plantar fasciitis. Trade him now while he has high value and it's not obvious he has a career ending condition.

Denmon -- now that's what I'm talking about. A little short. But 40.7% from three.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Marcus-Denmon-6491/

[Severn Hoos]

I don't have a problem trading down -- from 2 to 4, for example -- as long as we don't lose Beal in the process. If we can't have Anthony, and there is an 80% chance we cannot, then Beal makes a very nice consolation prize. If some team wants to move up to take Robinson I'd have no problem trading out of 2 as long as we stay high enough to take Beal or, if necessary, MKG.

I'm firmly in the Beal camp, so would have no problem with the Wiz taking him at #2 if they had the pick.

But - I would listen to offers, only from the teams at #3 & #4, to move down if they had something of value to offer. And, it would be on the condition that I know who they are going to draft at #2, and it would have to be Drummond or Robinson.

(I'm not too worried about another GM saying he would take one guy to get the deal and then reneging - that kind of thing would be career suicide, because no one would deal with him ever again. It's like the Wiz-Bulls Hinrich trade. By the time the trade was finished, the Bulls had no real incentive to go through with it, since they had already struck out in the FA market. But if they had gone back on their word, they would have been blackballed from then on.)

If the team at #4 says they will move up to take Drummond (for example), I would make the deal with the hope of getting Beal, but the confidence of at least getting MKG. But if they're moving up to take MKG, I don't make the deal because Beal could go #3, and the Wiz are left empty-handed. (No, that's not hyperbole - I would consider it a failure if this draft results in Drummond or Robinson.)

I might even entertain taking MKG at #2, then fielding offers from any team following who is in position to take Beal. If the team at 3, 4, or even 5, really want MKG and will give up Beal + something else, it would be worth it. And the "worst case scenario" where no deal materializes means we get MKG, which isn't so bad...

But at the end of the day, I'd probably just go ahead and take Beal at #2, regardless of what the "experts" think.

[pancakes3]

I think there are a couple sg's in the 2nd round that'll do a yeoman's job for us. Doron Lamb, John Jenkins, Tony Allen (i mean... Wroten), and even Will Buford who I think will pan out to be the Shelvin Mack of SG's in this year's draft.

[dobrojim]

If we don't get #1, I'd strongly consider trading down w/ Portland for their two picks. I think a haul of Sullinger & Rivers (just one combo, could use more) is better than getting Beal/T-Rob/MKG alone. I just don't think that highly of the top 5 prospects in this draft outside of Davis.

At 5, I would definitely consider trading for a 2fer.
edit to add - IF BEAL was not available at 5.

I wouldn't be going Sully/Rivers though. Neither of those guys excite me much.
Sorry Sev.
I could definitely see Zeller/Crowder as nice pickups