Bradley Beal - Part III

[Shanghai Kid]

What is the reason Beal has never been able to be a great free throw shooter? You’d think someone with the form and stroke he has would be in the 85% range. Yet he’s one of the guys I least want to see on the line in crunch time.

Does he not put enough arch on the ball? What’s the deal?

I might be in the minority...but I think he literally "chokes" as far as clutch free throw shooting goes. I usually expect him to go 2 of 2 in the 3rd, but in the 4th when the game is tight, he's an automatic 1 of 2 every time.

[Kanyewest]

What is the reason Beal has never been able to be a great free throw shooter? You’d think someone with the form and stroke he has would be in the 85% range. Yet he’s one of the guys I least want to see on the line in crunch time.

Does he not put enough arch on the ball? What’s the deal?

If I had to venture a guess, I think something is wrong with his shooting mechanics. Even from distance, Beal is shooting 36.6% from 3, a career worst. Beal has drastically improved his mid range game and handle but now Beal has to work on what made him a great prospect to begin with which was his 3 point shooting.

[tontoz]

During Beals rookie year I noticed a hitch in his free throw form. You can see it when they show the face on view from the basket.

[NatP4]

I just think its weird that he thinks he's James Harden or something. no need to deflate the ball and take 35 shots in a game. We have other pieces that can score.

[DCZards]

I just think its weird that he thinks he's James Harden or something. no need to deflate the ball and take 35 shots in a game. We have other pieces that can score.

That's not on Beal...it's on Brooks who insists on asking Bradley to play PG & SG at the same time.

I can't wait for the return of WallStar.

[nate33]

I just think its weird that he thinks he's James Harden or something. no need to deflate the ball and take 35 shots in a game. We have other pieces that can score.

That's not on Beal...it's on Brooks who insists on asking Bradley to play PG & SG at the same time.

I can't wait for the return of WallStar.

Agreed. I think Beal is doing what he is asked to do. He's not being a ball hog.

Honestly, I thought he got off lots of very good shots last game. Only one or two of them made me cringe because they were forced. The problem was he couldn't make anything outside of 10 feet. You don't want to live and die on 14-22 footers, but you expect to make more than 16% of them. Beal was 2/12 from 14-22 feet and 0/7 from 3-point range.

If he has merely a bad night instead of an awful night, he goes 4/12 on long 2's and 2/7 from 3-point range and we wouldn't be having this conversation because we'd have another 10 points.

[FAH1223]

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

[Wizardspride]

Read on Twitter

[nate33]

Read on Twitter

Interesting. Those numbers aren't really THAT good. They're almost exactly what you'd get from him if he posted his per-minute averages over 37.8 minutes a game (which is how much he played over those 4 games).

[DCZards]

Read on Twitter

Interesting. Those numbers aren't really THAT good. They're almost exactly what you'd get from him if he posted his per-minute averages over 37.8 minutes a game (which is how much he played over those 4 games).

There were 1 or 2 weeks earlier this season when I thought Brad could have been the player of the week...so it's cool that he got the distinction now regardless of the numbers.

I love how BB is balling, especially the way he's attacking the rim and scoring, oftentimes through contact.

[tontoz]

I think some people were throwing him under the bus prematurely when Wall was out. Nice to see him getting back to playing the way he did last year. He was very consistent last year, rarely having an off night.

[nate33]

I think some people were throwing him under the bus prematurely when Wall was out. Nice to see him getting back to playing the way he did last year. He was very consistent last year, rarely having an off night.

He is still shooting considerably worse this year than last year though - from all areas of the court except at the rim. And he is shooting less 3's and more long 2's. On the upside, he is finishing at the rim exceptionally well, and he is drawing more free throws.

If he ever starts draining 3's and long 2's at the same percentage he did last year, he'll be fine.

[tontoz]

I think some people were throwing him under the bus prematurely when Wall was out. Nice to see him getting back to playing the way he did last year. He was very consistent last year, rarely having an off night.

He is still shooting considerably worse this year than last year though - from all areas of the court except at the rim. And he is shooting less 3's and more long 2's. On the upside, he is finishing at the rim exceptionally well, and he is drawing more free throws.

If he ever starts draining 3's and long 2's at the same percentage he did last year, he'll be fine.

Before Wall got hurt his numbers were looking better than last year's. He is going to struggle when he is forced to be the primary ball handler. He needs Wall in the game and it would help even more if Wall would stop forcing shots.

We also need to keep in mind that last year was a huge breakout for Beal. Even if he comes up a little short of last year's numbers it would still be a good year.

[payitforward]

If, for a moment, we look at everything but scoring, Beal is doing great. His rebounding is up, he's committing slightly fewer fouls, & he's blocking shots a little more. Assists, TOs & steals are right where they were last year.

As to scoring, the table Nate contributed can be misinterpreted in some ways. E.g. if you look at the % of Beal's shots from 0-3 feet, you might think those have gone down from last year, but they haven't. They're about the same, & he's making them at a higher rate. That's good.

But, Beal is taking about 9% more shots this year than last, & he's taking 23% more 2-point shots & 12% fewer 3 pt. attemps.

Almost all those extra 2 pt. attempts are from 10 feet out or further. That's where the biggest problem is: his % on shots in that range has dropped a lot from last year, & that drop accounts for the biggest part of his overall much lower efficiency.

Question is -- why is he taking so many more shots like that? & what accounts for the % drop? Are more of them contested? Late in 24 second clock (i.e. shots he "has to" take)? Or... is he simply in a slump? What?

[payitforward]

...We also need to keep in mind that last year was a huge breakout for Beal. Even if he comes up a little short of last year's numbers it would still be a good year.

Disagree. Beal is still only 24. He's young enough that you expect further development, & this is when you'd expect it to happen. So, I'd say it would be a disappointment in terms of his overall career arc if he doesn't match & exceed last year. It would make you think he'd reached his ceiling as a player.

At this point, as well, he isn't "a little short of last year's numbers." As a scorer, he's pretty significantly short of them: TS% down from 60.4% to 54.9%. That's a big drop.

[tontoz]

...We also need to keep in mind that last year was a huge breakout for Beal. Even if he comes up a little short of last year's numbers it would still be a good year.

Disagree. Beal is still only 24. He's young enough that you expect further development, & this is when you'd expect it to happen. So, I'd say it would be a disappointment in terms of hmis overall career arc if he doesn't match & exceed last year. It would make you think he'd reached his ceiling as a player.

At this point, as well, he isn't "a little short of last year's numbers." As a scorer, he's pretty significantly short of them: TS% down from 60.4% to 54.9%. That's a big drop.

This is the worst 3 pt shooting year of Beals career, at least so far. I don't see that as in indication that his best 3 pt days are behind him. I just see it as a temporary slump.

[Shanghai Kid]

Beals TS% this year is basically where Wall was last year. That's a huge drop off when you consider the difference in perception between Beal as a highly efficient scorer and Wall as someone who can't shoot.

But it's still early, and with Wall back it seems he's getting his efficiency back.

[DCZards]

Beals TS% this year is basically where Wall was last year. That's a huge drop off when you consider the difference in perception between Beal as a highly efficient scorer and Wall as someone who can't shoot.

But it's still early, and with Wall back it seems he's getting his efficiency back.

Some of the drop off in Beal's efficiency is almost certainly the result of the role he was often asked to take on when Wall was out. At times, he was essentially being asked to simultaneously play both PG and SG.

[I_Like_Dirt]

At this point, as well, he isn't "a little short of last year's numbers." As a scorer, he's pretty significantly short of them: TS% down from 60.4% to 54.9%. That's a big drop.

I think this is a little too simplistic of a view, though. His usage, rebounds, assists, etc. are all career highs thus far. Basically, the team is relying on him quite a bit more. I also feel that Beal has been better defensively this season, as well, and he's getting to the line more than ever.

It's often a statistical misrepresentation I see made that guys who shoot higher %s should have more shots because they would continue shooting that efficiently, when in reality that's only true if you continue getting them the same kinds of shots in the same situations and they have the endurance to handle the increased workload without the remainder of their games suffering. The reality, though, is that players are humans. Lebron and Jordan in their primes could bring it everywhere every night, but they're the exceptions, not the rule. Beal performed his offensive role extremely well last season, but his role has changed this season, and while the efficiency numbers aren't what they used to be, he's also performing extremely well in his new expanded role. If he can refine what he's doing while maintaining his current role, look out. If he can't, it's worth discussing which role he's better suited for, I suppose, but I'm not really willing to consider that kind of thing yet, given that he's only 24.

Edit:

The Wizards have gone from the 20th ranked defense to the 8th ranked defense this season, despite Wall missing a bunch of games, and they've done it will holding as the 10th ranked offense (they were 7th last season). Beal has been a pretty significant part of that and I don't think he gets enough credit there.

[CobraCommander]

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

This proves stats can be directionally accurate and wrong at the same time. Example - Horford top 10...naw...but really good ....yes.