Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.

[gambitx777]

Can anyone provide a camp squad and preseason list? I can't find a solid one.

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[doclinkin]

Code: Select all

Davion Mintz   #   G   6-3   195 lbs   JUN 30, 1998   24   R   Kentucky
Quenton Jackson   #   G   6-5   173 lbs   JAN 01, 1900   122   R   Texas A&M
Makur Maker   #   C   6-10   232 lbs   NOV 04, 2000   21   R   Howard
Johnny Davis   #1   G   6-5   195 lbs   FEB 27, 2002   20   R   Wisconsin
Bradley Beal   #3   G   6-4   207 lbs   JUN 28, 1993   29   10   Florida
Will Barton   #5   G   6-5   181 lbs   JAN 06, 1991   31   10   Memphis
Kristaps Porzingis   #6   F-C   7-3   240 lbs   AUG 02, 1995   27   6   Cajasol Sevilla
Jordan Goodwin   #7   G   6-3   200 lbs   OCT 23, 1998   23   1   St. Louis
Rui Hachimura   #8   F   6-8   230 lbs   FEB 08, 1998   24   3   Gonzaga
Deni Avdija   #9   F   6-9   210 lbs   JAN 03, 2001   21   2   Maccabi Tel Aviv
Vernon Carey Jr.   #13   F-C   6-9   270 lbs   FEB 25, 2001   21   2   Duke
Isaiah Todd   #14   F   6-9   219 lbs   OCT 17, 2001   20   1   NBA G League Ignite
Anthony Gill   #16   F   6-7   230 lbs   OCT 17, 1992   29   2   Virginia
Jordan Schakel   #20   G   6-6   200 lbs   JUN 13, 1998   24   1   San Diego State
Daniel Gafford   #21   F-C   6-9   234 lbs   OCT 01, 1998   23   3   Arkansas
Monte Morris   #22   G   6-2   183 lbs   JUN 27, 1995   27   5   Iowa State
Corey Kispert   #24   F   6-6   224 lbs   MAR 03, 1999   23   1   Gonzaga
Kyle Kuzma   #33   F   6-9   221 lbs   JUL 24, 1995   27   5   Utah
Delon Wright   #55   G   6-5   185 lbs   APR 26, 1992   30   7   Utah
Taj Gibson   #67   F   6-9   232 lbs   JUN 24, 1985   37   13   Southern California

20 in camp.
15 on the roster.
Schakel is a designated 2-way player.

So:
Quenton Jackson,
Makur Maker,
Jordan Goodwin
are battling for the 2nd two-way spot.

They are exhibit 10 players so they will get some $ even if they don't take that spot, and can be signed by the GoGo after training camp unless they get a better offer elsewhere.

[doclinkin]

My guess at position battles and depth ranking.

PG
Monte Morris
Delon Wright
Davion MIntz

2G
Beal
Will Barton --listed as a guard on the Wiz official site.
Johnny Davis
Jordan Schakel
Jordan Goodwin
Quenton Jackson

SF
Avdija
Kispert -- listed at F, but I bet he sees minutes at 2G
Isaiah Todd -- I put him in SF

PF
Kyle Kuzma
Rui 8mura
Taj Gibson
Anthony Gill

C
Porzingis
Gafford -- listed as F/C
Vernon Carey -- listed as F/C
Makur Maker

Starters
Biggest battle is the starting SF spot. Whomever plays well next to Beal, Zinger, Kuz will get the starting nod. I think Kuz has the other forward spot locked in. I put Avdija up top, but I think Wes likes him running the 2nd squad. That said, his defense is starting quality, and he doesn't need the ball to be effective, where Beal, KP, and Kuz have a high usage rate.

Starting PG is Monte to begin the year. Wes needs to organize the squad and teach how it works best. I like Delon for his defense but he hasn't shown himself as a lead floor general type. Monte wants the role, seems like.

Back end of the roster:
Schakel is an outside shooter, so they awarded him with that spot after he shot 44% in the GLeague playoffs.
I think Quenton Jackson makes himself hard to cut.
Jordan Goodwin played well on the GoGo last year.
Maker is a big talent who approximates what Porzingis does. I'd bet they'd like to keep him on the GoGo so they can teach the same sets and system in their minor league spot and make it an easier adjustment if they call someone up.

[doclinkin]

One other thing worth pointing to: no one has mentioned the fact that at the deadline last year we traded away the guy who almost certainly had been our best player up to that point, by a lot, a player without whom we'd likely have won about 5 games fewer than our paltry total: Montrezl Harrell.

It's also worth pointing out that Harrell was unhappy as a Zard...complained about not getting the ball passed to him.

https://www.sportsmanor.com/nba-news-heres-why-montrezl-harrell-and-kcp-got-into-a-physical-fight-during-the-halftime-break/

...even complained about the coaching.

"I feel like we go into the game with a set plan or whatever we have laid out for the instance of that night and it's just going to be what works. That's not the case, man. We've gotta learn how to play on the fly and make adjustments and be able to fix it and try to correct things once they happen. I feel like we just kind of stay with what we're trying to make work, I guess," Harrell said.
https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/wizards/montrezl-harrell-says-wizards-werent-prepared-suns-mood-expletive-sucks

Don't get me wrong I absolutely love Trez's fire and effort. But it became clear that he was a locker room problem...and that's the last thing a rookie coach needed. So Harrell needed to go.

Turns out the Zards got a better player at the trade deadline anyway...KP.

Great discussion between the positive realists and the positive hyper-realists. This thread is turning into everything the dck said it would. It probably should be stickied during the season for more of this level of analysis.

I never played organized ball at a very competitive level so nothing ever forced me to think too much about what we were doing (just win). Outside of watching games, I’ve learned more about basketball from PIF, Zards, Nate, Doc, Dat, CCJ, Kev (really, everyone here), then from any other source, and some of these seasons I would have completely lost interest without it.

Might as well sticky it now. Not many other threads are getting much traction.

Agreed that the thoughtful conversation on this board has kept me interested. Beal's Deal has killed much speculation in the Trade thread, if not Hope itself. Thinking about marginal changes and roster tweaks are about all there is to do to keep things interesting.

[dckingsfan]

My guess at position battles and depth ranking.

PG
Monte Morris
Delon Wright
Davion MIntz

2G
Beal
Will Barton --listed as a guard on the Wiz official site.
Johnny Davis
Jordan Schakel
Jordan Goodwin
Quenton Jackson

SF
Avdija
Kispert -- listed at F, but I bet he sees minutes at 2G
Isaiah Todd -- I put him in SF

PF
Kyle Kuzma
Rui 8mura
Taj Gibson
Anthony Gill

C
Porzingis
Gafford -- listed as F/C
Vernon Carey -- listed as F/C
Makur Maker

Biggest battle is the starting SF spot. Whomever plays well next to Beal, Zinger, Kuz. I think Kuz has the other forward spot locked in.

Starting PG is Monte to begin the year. Wes needs to organize the squad and teach how it works best.

Back end of the roster:
Schakel is an outside shooter, so they awarded him with that spot after he shot 44% in the GLeague playoffs.
I think Quenton Jackson makes himself hard to cut.
Jordan Goodwin played well on the GoGo last year.
Maker is a big talent who approximates what Porzingis does. I'd bet they'd like to keep him on the GoGo so they can teach the same sets and system in their minor league spot and make it an easier adjustment if they call someone up.

Can't disagree with this. I guess the questions are:
1) Who starts at SF (your leading question).
2) Who gets more minutes at PG and will Beal get spot minutes at PG (guess this isn't a camp question).
3) Given Porzingis/Gafford potential durability issues will Gibson get more minutes at C (last 3 season he played nearly all his minutes at C) or will we have a scary Carey miracle.
4) What offense does Wes use when Porzingis is off the court (might be the biggest camp issue outside of the starting SF question?).

Q: Talk to me about Todd as a SF?

[doclinkin]

Can't disagree with this. I guess the questions are:
1) Who starts at SF (your leading question).
2) Who gets more minutes at PG and will Beal get spot minutes at PG (guess this isn't a camp question).
3) Given Porzingis/Gafford potential durability issues will Gibson get more minutes at C (last 3 season he played nearly all his minutes at C) or will we have a scary Carey miracle.
4) What offense does Wes use when Porzingis is off the court (might be the biggest camp issue outside of the starting SF question?).

Q: Talk to me about Todd as a SF?

1) Right? How much of Deni's confidence and game carries over to training camp/regular season. Does he have chemistry with this crew, or do we need him as a captain of the 2nd unit. Kispert's spacing and backdoor game looks like a fit with the starters. Do we have enough defense and size though if we are starting Morris. Does Barton play SF where he has spent time in many of the past few years. Who do we call SF when Rui shares the court with Kuz or Deni. Does Kispert take minutes at guard. Etc.

2) Given the logjam at Forward, and that Beal will likely play heavy minutes, I can see lines with him as a lead ballhandler. I think Morris gets the majority of the minutes over the season though unless we are constantly getting smoked on defense and Wes shakes things up.

3) agreed on Gibson, his game has always been as an undersized C. He just now added a bit of an outside shot from the corner, but he does his best work at both ends in the paint. He's listed at F so I took them at their word.

4) this is what is interesting to me. And where I like Deni as captain of the 2nd team. I think we get a dynamic mix with

Wright defense and shooting
Barton playmaker and shooter
Deni glue guy
Rui outside shooting
Gafford lob threat

Shooters on the outside, Deni as point forward, space on the interior for Gafford to get loose. I wish Rui were a better team defender, but Deni/Delon/Gafford has something that might be interesting.

5) Todd shoots from outside and fails to rebound and is scared to mix it up inside on either end. He is tall, but does not show a power game. I'm calling him a SF or else I'm calling him not a basketball player at all.

[dckingsfan]

4) this is what is interesting to me. And where I like Deni as captain of the 2nd team. I think we get a dynamic mix with

Wright defense and shooting
Barton playmaker and shooter
Deni glue guy
Rui outside shooting
Gafford lob threat

Shooters on the outside, Deni as point forward, space on the interior for Gafford to get loose. I wish Rui were a better team defender, but Deni/Delon/Gafford has something that might be interesting.

5) Todd shoots from outside and fails to rebound and is scared to mix it up inside on either end. He is tall, but does not show a power game. I'm calling him a SF or else I'm calling him not a basketball player at all.

Yeah, I think the interesting thing is with Porzingis out there will be a different offensive schema. I can see that rotation although I am thinking it will be Beal instead of Barton when Porzingis is out and that we will fall back to hero ball offensive schema (this is going to be a challenge for Wes - it would be awesome if he could figure this one out).

As to Todd, if he could defend the three and actually become meaningful on the offensive end in that capacity... this is where I am at.

[nate33]

I think it's a foregone conclusion that Beal, Kuzma and Porzingis will start. I agree that the question is: who starts at point guard and at small forward?

I think we should try to have Avdija on the floor whenever Morris is not. Avdija can serve as a point forward, to help Wright with playmaking duties.

With that the case, then Morris and Avdija shouldn't both start. The starters should be Wright and Avdija, or Morris plus one of Kispert/Hachimura.

It might actually make some sense to start Hachimura and assign him the task of defending the opponent's best wing. Hachimura played his best defense 2 years ago when Skiles challenged him to take on the role of defensive stopper.

[nate33]

I still think the best option is to start Wright and run the offense through Porzingis, with four ball handling, decision-making wings around him (Kuzma, Avdija, Beal and Wright).

The second unit can run a more conventional pick and roll offense with Morris and Gafford as the engine, surrounded by point guard dependent finishers Hachimura and Kispert. Barton can play the role of emergency shot creator.

It might also make sense to manipulate the Beal/Barton rotation so that Beal is on the floor for much of the time the second unit is on.

[doclinkin]

Yeah, I think the interesting thing is with Porzingis out there will be a different offensive schema. I can see that rotation although I am thinking it will be Beal instead of Barton when Porzingis is out and that we will fall back to hero ball offensive schema (this is going to be a challenge for Wes - it would be awesome if he could figure this one out).

As to Todd, if he could defend the three and actually become meaningful on the offensive end in that capacity... this is where I am at.

I don't know if we see quite the same Hero ball game from Beal now that he is no longer gunning for a contract. It has been a long process of Beal scrapping to qualify for Max extensions and Super-Max status. If he missed any benchmarks along the way he would miss out on tens of millions. He finally qualified June '21 when he made 3rd team All-NBA following his run at the scoring title. If you cross reference his FG attempts against his contract years you see he took a few more shots a game every year his contract was due. Not saying he was solely motivated by money, saying he had a vested interest in making his stats look good. He showed up and did the work. With the increased usage however did not come increased efficiency. Playing on the ball made the rest of his game suffer except that his FT' attempts increased. He did become the focal point of defenses, and last year was clearly frustrating to him of you look at all the complaining he did to the refs.

To me Brad has never been totally comfortable in that alpha seat. He gets his numbers, but he's not the player you look to when the stakes are highest. He had one stellar post season series playing next to Wall/Otto/Gortat. They lost against Boston despite his 71 pts in the last 2 games of that series. But Wall drew the most attention.

Now it is "Beal's Team" in that he is paid the most. But last year the locker room exploded and his leadership did not hold it together or bring players together. After giving up a 35pt lead Players talked the problem being that teammates in contract years were playing for their own stats instead of wins. Beal may have pull with Ted, but in the locker room so far I haven't heard about it, and now that he is signed I don't think he has the implicit leverage over the coaches.

Honestly I see Kuzma having a power bloc on the team now. 2 childhood friends hired, one will be the coach's voice on the floor. KCP shipped away. And it is a contract year for Kuz now. If there is a candidate to take extra shots and try for hero status I'd bet we see Kuz trying to step up to fill the spot.

As for this line, or Beal playing too many minutes: Barton will play. The coach knows his game. But we have a stack of bigger players at SF. And Beal needs a back-up. Other than the college version of Johnny Davis we don't have a ball-handling 2Guard who can break down defenses and get into the middle. When Beal is shooting blanks, or frustrated at refs, we have at least one option to go to. I'd bet Beal's total minutes take a step back. He traditionally starts slow and doesn't get hot until Jan-Feb-March. This year he is rehabbing from injury and likely strain from carrying a quarter billion dollars to the bank.

I'd love to see Beal regain parts of his game that have gone by the wayside. Off ball movement. Outside shooting. Defense. Team play. Raising his game when necessary instead of trying to carry the entire load. I appreciate how he has had to step up once Wall went down, but his efficiency suffered. He's a high IQ player, I have to expect he knows it, even if as a competitor he surely wants to justify that contract. Problem is nobody could justify that contract. MJ. LeBJ in his prime. The only thing that justifies it is a jump in the win totals, which I don't think happens with Beal playing hero ball. You have to figure the coach and staff know that.

[DCZards]

I think Morris is itching to prove he can be an outstanding floor general and to significantly increase his assist #s. (He said as much shortly after the Zards traded for him.)

While I can see the argument(s) for starting Wright, I firmly believe that having a true oncourt leader is essential. So I'm more inclined to start Morris and give him the opportunity to be that on court leader/playmaker. I believe that's what Wes Jr. wants as well.

[doclinkin]

Hachimura played his best defense 2 years ago when Skiles

Brooks. Different scrappy back-up PG turned coach. Though also named Scott. Personally I would credit coach Westbrook for Rui's increased focus, more than Brooks.

[doclinkin]

I think Morris is itching to prove he can be an outstanding floor general and to significantly increase his assist #s. (He said as much shortly after the Zards traded for him.)

While I can see the argument(s) for starting Wright, I firmly believe that having a true oncourt leader is essential. So I'm more inclined to start Morris and give him the opportunity to be that on court leader/playmaker. I believe that's what Wes Jr. wants as well.

I agree this is probably how we start games and start the season. I'd bet after the data gurus get enough iterations of various line-ups we will probably see more late-game situations with Wright. Especially if Deni sees an uptick in playmaking. I'd bet Kuz too liked his role as facilitator/point forward last year.

[tleikheen]

Kuz is penciled in at PF because of play last year but Rui and Deni might be better as backups than the starters. Of the three Rui is probably the best shooter and scorer out there and that will be hard to keep on the bench. I think Denis is going to be more than just "SF" with the Wiz and WUJ will have him playing 1-4. Kuz,Deni and Rui will get alot of minutes ,the wild card to me is Corey Kispert...... If Corey is lighting it up from beyond the 3 ,similar to Rui their going to be out on the court with KP and Beal. Most teams will be doubling up on KP and Beal and Corey and Rui will be sitting on the 3-line.

[payitforward]

One other thing worth pointing to: no one has mentioned the fact that at the deadline last year we traded away the guy who almost certainly had been our best player up to that point, by a lot, a player without whom we'd likely have won about 5 games fewer than our paltry total: Montrezl Harrell.

It's also worth pointing out that Harrell was unhappy as a Zard...complained about not getting the ball passed to him.

https://www.sportsmanor.com/nba-news-heres-why-montrezl-harrell-and-kcp-got-into-a-physical-fight-during-the-halftime-break/

...even complained about the coaching.

"I feel like we go into the game with a set plan or whatever we have laid out for the instance of that night and it's just going to be what works. That's not the case, man. We've gotta learn how to play on the fly and make adjustments and be able to fix it and try to correct things once they happen. I feel like we just kind of stay with what we're trying to make work, I guess," Harrell said.
https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/wizards/montrezl-harrell-says-wizards-werent-prepared-suns-mood-expletive-sucks

Don't get me wrong I absolutely love Trez's fire and effort. But it became clear that he was a locker room problem...and that's the last thing a rookie coach needed. So Harrell needed to go.

Turns out the Zards got a better player at the trade deadline anyway...KP.

I don't disagree that we needed to trade Trez -- although I don't have any sense of what led to the inter-personal problems that developed in that locker room, & I don't see what's wrong with that particular observation of his that you quote.

It's Trez as a player that I was talking about -- his effect on game results when he was on the court. In that regard, I think it's pretty obvious that, minute for minute, he was the best player on the Washington Wizards last year.

I certainly wish him the best w/ the Sixers (on nights when we don't play them, that is ).

As far as KP being "a better player" than Trez, what would make you say that?

Unless you just mean "talent." KP is much more talented than Harrell. But, when we look at what they've done on the court in the NBA, the picture is quite different.

KP & Trez have both played 7 seasons (KP was drafted a year earlier but missed a whole season). Overall, KP has played only about 70 more minutes per season than Trez.

Per 40 minutes, on their careers, KP has scored 1/2 point more than Trez per 40 minutes. Not much of a difference. Only thing is... to get that 1/2 point extra, KP has had to use 4 more possessions than Trez. So, if you're judging who's been the better player based on scoring, well... Montrezl Harrell wins by a whole lot.

Per 40 minutes, KP gets slightly more defensive boards, but Trez gets way more offensive boards. It's advantage Harrell again, but I'm not going to belabor the point: there's not much to choose between them as rebounders; they're both good.

Assists, steals, turnovers, blocks, & fouls...? Overall they're virtually identical on that stuff.

Over their careers, Montrezl Harrell has been a better player than Kristaps Porzingis. & that difference is magnified a lot by the fact that KP was the 4th pick in the draft, while Trez was the #32 pick. it's magnified even more when you consider that Trez made just under $10m last year, while KP made over $33m.

IOW, while Trez has been a major positive surprise, KP has had a disappointing NBA career so far. & that is why the Wizards were able to get Kristaps Porzingis plus a R2 pick for Spencer Dinwiddie & a guy with one of the worst contracts in the league, Davis Bertans. Or... why did you think he was so cheap?

But, of course, these are all mere facts.... Facts don't always get a whole lot of weight around here.

More importantly, if KP plays a full season at all star level productivity, why yes he will be better than Trez. No doubt about it.

[nate33]

Harrell can't defend starters. KP can. It's a massive difference that outweighs Harrell's statistical edge on offense.

There's a reason that no coach ever let's Harrell start.

[Dat2U]

Our best 4 is Deni... problem is he's also the best 3 on the roster despite the poor 3pt range percentage.

Kuz in maybe a best case scenario could be a neutral player as its been discussed on how important it is for him to take better shots and create less for himself. He's not great on the defensive side but not a sieve on that end or some one who always seems lost in the sauce when it comes to defensive rotations (cough, Rui).

If I had playoff ultimatum, Rui is the first to go IMO. I mentioned it in another thread but swapping him for Vanderbilt & filler probably vaults us to the 40-42 win range with decent health. I also think he would fit well next to KP as a rebounder/defender.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I am looking forward to watching this team, and it will be interesting to see how this roster and rotation shakes out in training camp and early in the season.

I'm not a believer in mega-max Beal as a franchise player, or in Davis as a top tier draft pick, but hopefully those moves prove more positive than negative.

I do like most of the supporting moves... If you consider the trade for Porzingis as the major move for this season, and the trade for Barton & Morris. And under the radar minor moves adding a cagey veteran Gibson and a prospect with upside in Maker. On the surface I like the overall makeup of the team, filling out the team with solid role players and some grinders around our big 3.

I agree Morris will start. He's been vocal publicly since arriving, seems to want a leadership role, and has preexisting chemistry with Kuzma and Barton.

I think Deni's defensive versatility and upside will win out at SF to round out the starting unit. I like Barton more as a scorer off the bench, with Kispert's shooting and Gafford & Wright getting after it defensively. Hachimura should fit in nicely as the go-to guy of the 2nd unit, with Barton to push him, and Kispert adding chemistry, allowing Rui to assert himself with confidence.

Gibson, Gil, Todd, Davis will be good cheerleaders.

[nate33]

The problem with starting Morris, Beal, Deni, Kuzma and Porzingis is that they are our 5 best playmakers on the roster. Sure, they'd be fine together, but there are diminishing returns in having all five guys be quality offensive decision makers. There is only one basketball.

If those five guys start, then none of them are on the second unit. That would leave the second unit with Wright, Barton, Kispert, Hachimura and Gafford. Who is going to run that offense? Who can get them into their sets and get all those point guard dependent players the ball?

[9 and 20]

Trying to get hyped for the season but I'm not sure I have it in me. 42 win upside with 25 win downside if Beal is garbage again and Zingus gets hurt. Question of Deni, Rui, or Kuz seems superfluous - the rest of the team is too trash, injury prone, or otherwise flawed for it really to matter, since none of Deni, Rui, and Kuz are not all that great anyway. 42 wins gets us one or two games in the playoffs and the numer 18 pick, Chris Singleton Jr.