Long Term Plan? (merged threads)

[LyricalRico]

I still say it was a mistake not to pull off the Jamison + Etan for Wally deal.

<snip>

If EG had dumped some salary, the Wizards could have been in position to truly take advantage of everybody else's financial woes.

This is the main reason why I think Gil will play this year. My guess is they turned down a Jamison dump because they wanted to see what this team looked like with a healthy Arenas. If Gil comes back for 20 games and they go 15-5, then they keep the existing team together. But if Gil comes back and the needle doesn't move at all, then I think Grunfeld will be more open to change.

The Cavs can still trade Ben Wallace's 2010 expiring contract for Jamison and they may even be willing to include more value over the summer, expecially if they fall short in the playoffs. Other teams will have large 2010 expirings to offer:

Chicago - Brad Miller
Dallas - Stackhouse + S.Williams (we'd have until Aug 10 to waive Stack for immediate savings)
Detroit - can send a mid-sized deal and absorb the rest
San Antonio - Oberto+Bonner+Finley (we would waive them so they can re-sign)

I'm actually intrigued by the Detroit option. If they can get a space-eating big man like Kaman, a finesse PF like Jamison could work for them. They can trade Kwame for Kaman and Amir Johnson for Jamison, using their cap space to absorb the exra salary. I'm not big on Amir but we could flip him to a team like OKC for a future pick and enjoy immediate cap savings.

[Ruzious]

Umm nate, I was under the premise that the Cavs turned down Jamison + Etan for Wally because of Etan being included. Wasn't this reported?

Actually, you're right. Ivan reported that. But I think Cleve would have done a similar trade with James instead of Etan.

[hands11]

God I pray we don't bring back Hughes. I was happy to see him go last time. Hughes is not the answer to improving this team.

I don't understand the aversion to trading James+Etan for Hughes. It won't happen now that he's in NY but how is Larry Hughes worse than Etan and James? Nobody is saying that he's the savior but I don't think you can argue that he's not an improvement over what we're getting from Etan (nothing) and James (next to nothing).

It's not about if he is better then those players in general. It's about growing this team and who we want to / need to add. We don't need to add Hughes type personalities to this team. We need to add more DMACs or Crits if they are young and more like Nash or Rasheed if they are older.

I think people look at talent and stats to much without considering personality. It's the package that counts. You want your Ray Allens, not your AIs. If you want to be a best of breed team, you need best of bread character/persona/heart/fight/confidence - whatever ever you want to call it.

Paul Pierce has it. He isn't an MJ personality but he has those other things. Focus, fight, drive, courage, skills on offense and defence. You need players that have that something special. Even the role players who don't have a total package of skills need to have the mental part.

I think we have some players who have some of those things but we need more of them. I think DSong has it. But he lacks on the skills side. DMAC and Crit shows signs of it and they have the raw physical talent to up their skills. Roger Mason had it. Haywood is showing signs of having it on both ends. He may be the most balanced of the two sets of characteristics on the team. He totally fit in the possition he plays with defensive and offensive skills and he is tough minds and works hard.

AJ has it but he can't defend. Not a complete player.
CB has a good bit of this but again, we call them both tweaners. Not like Haywood who fits his position.

GA is the tough one. He is so close to having it all but he doesn't fit a position and he hasn't shown the kind of leader maturity to be the total package - YET

Hughes just doesn't have it. Nor do players like TMAC. They would be bad additions to a team with younger players it is trying to model to be more like DMAC, Crit and Haywood.

You have to add the right kind of player. For all the skills Nick Young has, he is miles away from having it. Everyone has commented on AB. The comments are mostly about what's between his ears more then his talent. McGee will probably end up having it but he is so raw right now.

This is why we need to transition from players like DS. Adding Hughes to me is just adding another player that doesn't have it. Just not what we should be doing right now.

Not sure if that made sense. It's kind of hard to put into words.

[dobrojim]

I still say it was a mistake not to pull off the Jamison + Etan for Wally deal.

<snip>

If EG had dumped some salary, the Wizards could have been in position to truly take advantage of everybody else's financial woes.

This is the main reason why I think Gil will play this year. My guess is they turned down a Jamison dump because they wanted to see what this team looked like with a healthy Arenas. If Gil comes back for 20 games and they go 15-5, then they keep the existing team together. But if Gil comes back and the needle doesn't move at all, then I think Grunfeld will be more open to change.
[snip]

There are barely 20 games left in the season.

I think the most we can hope for is 10-15 games.
I actually wouldn't be surprised to see him wait until the very
last game, then come in and drop 30-40 on whoever it is.

[lupin]

It's a little funny to think about, but I bet Pollin is actually in a better cash position than Leonsis right now and for the next couple of years.

[JonathanG]

I think the pre-draft measurements really skewed peoples opinions of Young and Dommy. http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-pre-dra ... ft=0&sort= Dom's wingspan was a pedestrian 6'10.5 (that's an inch shorter than Butler's), and Young's was a ridiculously long (for a guard) 7'. Also, Dom's jumps were average - 28.5 standing vert and 34.5 step vert, while Young was again ridiculous - 39.5 standing (!) and 40.5 step vert. These are reasons it drives me crazy when Young shoots fadeaway jumpers against 6'3 guards. I gotta wonder if Dom was sabotaged in those measurements - he wore the thinnest shoes there. Maybe he was wearing penny loafers?

Just got this thanks to google alerts and thought I'd respond. McGuire went through the entire pre-draft camp with a torn meniscus. That's part of the reason he fell to where he did. Obviously trying to do a combine in that physical state didn't help his results.

[doclinkin]

I think the pre-draft measurements really skewed peoples opinions of Young and Dommy. http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-pre-dra ... ft=0&sort= Dom's wingspan was a pedestrian 6'10.5 (that's an inch shorter than Butler's), and Young's was a ridiculously long (for a guard) 7'. Also, Dom's jumps were average - 28.5 standing vert and 34.5 step vert, while Young was again ridiculous - 39.5 standing (!) and 40.5 step vert. These are reasons it drives me crazy when Young shoots fadeaway jumpers against 6'3 guards. I gotta wonder if Dom was sabotaged in those measurements - he wore the thinnest shoes there. Maybe he was wearing penny loafers?

Just got this thanks to google alerts and thought I'd respond. McGuire went through the entire pre-draft camp with a torn meniscus. That's part of the reason he fell to where he did. Obviously trying to do a combine in that physical state didn't help his results.

Yeah I was tracking Dom's results via your DX database (best BBall stats matrix on the web thanks). His numbers forced me to track down games, I doubted his max vert numbers in the combine, McGuire can jump.

While I have your attention, hey JG is there a reason why you pulled the steal + blocks/pf off your dbase? I'm still getting used to the re-design, but the data is all still good-- you're the 2nd place I look everytime I power up this here laptop.

Glad you did the feature on NIck Calathes recently. I'm interested to hear scouting comparisons between Calathes, Stef Curry, and lil' Ricky. What do scouts/GMs think on Del Curry's boy's chances as a PG at the next level. Hmmn, I had one other question I was going to email you. Right: Obi Muonelo of Okla State, his stats have me curious, I'd like to hear a breakdown from someone who has seen more feed than me (2 games, via blurry pirated internet).

[hands11]

I still say it was a mistake not to pull off the Jamison + Etan for Wally deal.

<snip>

If EG had dumped some salary, the Wizards could have been in position to truly take advantage of everybody else's financial woes.

This is the main reason why I think Gil will play this year. My guess is they turned down a Jamison dump because they wanted to see what this team looked like with a healthy Arenas. If Gil comes back for 20 games and they go 15-5, then they keep the existing team together. But if Gil comes back and the needle doesn't move at all, then I think Grunfeld will be more open to change.
[snip]

There are barely 20 games left in the season.

I think the most we can hope for is 10-15 games.
I actually wouldn't be surprised to see him wait until the very
last game, then come in and drop 30-40 on whoever it is.

FYI - we are currently on a 4-4 run without either GA or Haywood.

I think it's time for people to, at a min, get off Tapps back while it would be far to give him some credit for keeping this team competitive and bringing some younger players along.

DMAC had a nice round game.

NY come in and played his role without over playing his role

Blatche contributed nicely. Showed some nice drives and a nice outside shot with some blocks

McGee is all energy. He is still all over the place. Doesn't play efficiently but he is gamer.

OP - yes, there was an OP sitting and he played under control. Made a nice pump and pop move.

Crit - he didn't have a great game offensively but 12 min 4 rebounds 2 assist was a contribution.

DSong was effective and a stabilizing force. He just plays sound basketball 6-6 and all fight.
CB was guarded tight all game but didn't force things. 5-11, 1-3, 3-3, 7 boards, 6 assists 14 pts - Glue
AJ was all AJ. Double Double 9-18, 11 boards, 2 assists, 27 pts

This team has 2 star vets, 1 solid vet DSong, and someone close to a vet in James. Then it's a bunch
of kids. 6 young players contributed tonight. Right now, that is our team. That's what Tapps has to work with. There aren't enough vets to turn to without Haywood, Etan, DS, or GA.
Not a small challenge.

This team is still progressing tough. With only 14 wins and this late in the season, Tapps still has them. He hasn't lost the team. He has been on everyone to play smarter ball and tougher D and I saw that last night. He also needs the younger players to contribute and play smart and I mostly saw that also. And since they did, he gave them more time on the court when it mattered. AJ did everything he did in only 29 mins. CB got 36 mins while DMAC played 39 mins. That's a first ever.

That was a superbly coached game that was the result of some good consistent coaching off the court.

[Ruzious]

I think the pre-draft measurements really skewed peoples opinions of Young and Dommy. http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-pre-dra ... ft=0&sort= Dom's wingspan was a pedestrian 6'10.5 (that's an inch shorter than Butler's), and Young's was a ridiculously long (for a guard) 7'. Also, Dom's jumps were average - 28.5 standing vert and 34.5 step vert, while Young was again ridiculous - 39.5 standing (!) and 40.5 step vert. These are reasons it drives me crazy when Young shoots fadeaway jumpers against 6'3 guards. I gotta wonder if Dom was sabotaged in those measurements - he wore the thinnest shoes there. Maybe he was wearing penny loafers?

Just got this thanks to google alerts and thought I'd respond. McGuire went through the entire pre-draft camp with a torn meniscus. That's part of the reason he fell to where he did. Obviously trying to do a combine in that physical state didn't help his results.

Yeah, a torn miniscus is what started Arenas' 3 year run on and off the injured list. Thanks for the info, and I'm another big fan of your site. Dom just keeps getting better, and as he gets a little more play with the ball in his hands, I think we'll see his passing ability show more.

[JonathanG]

I think the pre-draft measurements really skewed peoples opinions of Young and Dommy. http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-pre-dra ... ft=0&sort= Dom's wingspan was a pedestrian 6'10.5 (that's an inch shorter than Butler's), and Young's was a ridiculously long (for a guard) 7'. Also, Dom's jumps were average - 28.5 standing vert and 34.5 step vert, while Young was again ridiculous - 39.5 standing (!) and 40.5 step vert. These are reasons it drives me crazy when Young shoots fadeaway jumpers against 6'3 guards. I gotta wonder if Dom was sabotaged in those measurements - he wore the thinnest shoes there. Maybe he was wearing penny loafers?

Just got this thanks to google alerts and thought I'd respond. McGuire went through the entire pre-draft camp with a torn meniscus. That's part of the reason he fell to where he did. Obviously trying to do a combine in that physical state didn't help his results.

Yeah I was tracking Dom's results via your DX database (best BBall stats matrix on the web thanks). His numbers forced me to track down games, I doubted his max vert numbers in the combine, McGuire can jump.

While I have your attention, hey JG is there a reason why you pulled the steal + blocks/pf off your dbase? I'm still getting used to the re-design, but the data is all still good-- you're the 2nd place I look everytime I power up this here laptop.

Glad you did the feature on NIck Calathes recently. I'm interested to hear scouting comparisons between Calathes, Stef Curry, and lil' Ricky. What do scouts/GMs think on Del Curry's boy's chances as a PG at the next level. Hmmn, I had one other question I was going to email you. Right: Obi Muonelo of Okla State, his stats have me curious, I'd like to hear a breakdown from someone who has seen more feed than me (2 games, via blurry pirated internet).

Thanks. We're going to try and make the database even better this summer by adding boxscore data (that should give us the ability to look at a whole bunch of new categories, including isolating for strength of schedule).

About why we took off the steal+blocks/pf...did it really serve any purpose? I remember looking through the results it produced across various leagues at different points and always coming away with the conclusion that it's an utterly useless stat. I don't believe in docking players for fouling (not fouling is probably a sign that a guy isn't defending) and the possession based stuff seems to have a lot more traction these days.

I would rather not break down the differences between Calathes, Curry and Rubio right here and now, but you'll be pleased to find Curry's updated scouting report posted in just a few hours on the site.

Muonelo is a 6-5 SF playing PF and C exclusively for Oklahoma State, which helps explain his excellent rebounding numbers. While he is an excellent role player for the NCAA level, he is a limited offensive player--his game mostly revolves around spot-up 3's. We haven't broken down his game in extreme depth yet (we're mostly just trying to get reports up for everyone expected to be in this draft), but from the little I've seen he doesn't scream out as someone we need to be in a rush to evaluate. This summer when we do our annual "top prospects in __ conference" we'll take a much deeper look.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

JonG, since you took over DX has just taken things to a new level .

For years and years being a hoop junkie who always believed stats over time should be given full consideration, DX has brought to the forefront stats that are relevant. I really enjoy DX!

I truly admire the site ( but not so much the dark border of the new look, though). Thanks, JonG.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

About Dom and the predraft camp injury, that's my whole reason for valuing stats over time. I've never been a huge fan of the combine-type approach. Guys can be injured or just have off days. Or maybe they just measure short on measurables.

Like with Millsap or Boozer. Not pretty on the tale of the tape for PFs.

Yet, to me I could see where a guy who led the entire nation in rebounding for three straight years and who also averaged more than 2 steals and 2 blocks was going to be a good defender and rebounder in the NBA.

As for Boozer, I just KNEW he was better than Dunleavey or Jay Williams because of his efficiency. He got all the boards and points in the paint at a high clip. So what if Jeffries shut him down in the NCAAs and Boozer couldn't do many bench presses (IIRC) and was reportedly around 280lbs prior to the draft? Didn't matter at all to me. Boozer had a nice body of work at Duke.

While we're on stats, if you look back at what Danny Granger did when healthy at New Mexico, to me it's no surprise at all he's an all star now. Before DX blew up, I said I thought Granger could be an all star. Now, folks have the stats at their disposal.

Any way, thanks, JonG for chiming in on Dom.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Curry and DeJuan Blair intrigue me more than Blake Griffin for some reason. So does Patrick Patterson FWIW.

OUTLANDISH STATEMENT: Blair is better than Griffin, just based on stats.

Also, for the Wizards I really like Terrance Williams and Nick Calathes. Gerald Henderson II makes sense only if they trade Young. Rubio makes no sense with Gil IMO.

Two role players I really like (maybe because they're ACC players?) are Jack McClinton and Trevor Booker.

Honestly, I won't really look too hard at this year's talent til the NCAAs are over and before the draft.

[doclinkin]

Thanks. We're going to try and make the database even better this summer by adding boxscore data (that should give us the ability to look at a whole bunch of new categories, including isolating for strength of schedule).

About why we took off the steal+blocks/pf...did it really serve any purpose? I remember looking through the results it produced across various leagues at different points and always coming away with the conclusion that it's an utterly useless stat. I don't believe in docking players for fouling (not fouling is probably a sign that a guy isn't defending) and the possession based stuff seems to have a lot more traction these days.

I found it useful for ID-ing perimeter defenders on a sort of SFs and SGs. Perimeter Defense is one of the toughest stats to measure by raw box score numbers. The ratio doesn't work well on the long beanpole shot blockers (especially in a small conference) but does act as an indicator of activity and a modicum of on-court intelligence/athleticism/defensive instinct especially for the SG/SF types.

I agree about not docking a player for fouling, though players who managed a high ratio while still racking fouls have proven to be defensive terrors at the next level. Take a look. Artest is one if I recall correctly.

Collating a comparison of blocks/40 (pace adjusted) and steals/40padj would be good enough, though high foul rates can at times suggest poor athleticism for the next level, reaching and hacking instead of quick footwork. Utah's Brewer, the aforementioned Dom McGuire (and the Wiz' McGee, though he was a 'beanpole' risk), DWade-- there have been a few standouts with this ratio that showed good success at the next level, seems to me to translate pretty well for guards and wing players. (This year it suggests Danny Green may prove a decent quality defending roleplayer at the next level).

Now if instead you could use play-by-play data to tease out the on/off eFG% of a given player, well great! But I don't see anyone able to churn that info out for the general public on every NCAA game night in, night out. If I did, well shoot, I'd power up that site first...

Hmmn, yeah the Obi info tends to confirm my sight-read. That team plays so fast (if not loose) taking every unguarded shot from outside, it tends to seduce the opponent into trying the same style, hence plenty of loose boards and long rebounds. If Obi could handle he'd look good as a utility 2-guard in a 2nd round pick, but I never saw him dribble the ball much.

Thanks.

[hands11]

Haywood is still the key for this team. If we had a starting quality center ( Haywood) going into next season and this group as they have matured to date, we wouldn't suck like we did this season. They wouldn't be great but at least you would see them win more and grow quicker. Most the younger player now have their dippers off. You can at least play them without them looking totally lost.

We would be that same .500% team with younger player growing. If you can integrate GAs skills the right way, we are a .600% team that can even get better with a few moves.

Haywood, AJ, CB, GA
McGee, Blatche, DMAC, NY, Crit
DSong

That's 10 players and you still have Etan, DS, James, OP, draft pick

And since Abe is making it so money isn't a problem next year, I wouldn't be surprised to see.

Haywood, AJ, CB, DS, GA
McGee, Blatche, DMAC, NY, Crit
DSong, Etan

Deactivate OP and draft pick (PG) until you trade Etan near trade deadline.
Dixon comes off the books and you buy out James.

That's a pretty solid team of vets and younger players with a draft pick waiting to come on board.
You just need McGee to mature and Nick Young to find his role by playing more efficient.

Ideally, to win it all I still think we are short a vet PG for next year. Between GA and Crit, neither is the kind of vet PG I would want to go for it all. Gold would be turning Etan, DS and the pick into that player who could be here maybe 2-3 years while we make a run.

Haywood, AJ, CB, GA, Vet PG
McGee, Blatche, DMAC, NY, Crit
DSong, ( open stop for OP if he is ready - if not, cheap vet C/PF )

This give us success now and time to see who out of these 2nd line players can become first line players. I think McGee will. Maybe Crit also. DMAC shows signs. I don't know if Nick has the make up to ever be a starter and Blatche is still a ?. I think he could start with the right vets around him but it would be hard for me right now to see that 2nd line starting together as a first line. But we would still have GA.

McGee, Blatche, DMAC, GA, Crit
Haywood

Haywood, McGee, Blatche, GA, Crit
DMAC

Haywood,.Blatche, DMAC, GA, Crit
McGee

Point is, we are looking pretty good.

[Jimmy Recard]

First time post!

What does everyone think of this possible rotation next season...

C - Haywood (28) Mcgee (20)
PF - Blatche (30) Antawn (18)
SF - Caron (36) Antawn (12)
SG - Dom (26) Young (22)
PG - Gilbert (36) Critt (12)

I cant see where Darius, Stevenson, Thomas and Pech fit in, but certainly a solid 9 man rotation there. A big starting line-up with two 7-footers maning the paint and a nice balance of offence and defense. Instant offence off the bench from Antawn and Young with Mcgee and Critt providing some energy. Thoughts? Also what does everyone think Critt's role will be once Gil gets back? Any chance him playing alongside Gil at the 2?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Welcome aboard, Mosca!

I think it's what should happen but won't. No way does Jamison's ego allow him to cede a starting spot and minutes to Blatche. Jamison will want the start and the minutes.

I agree TOTALLY that a big lineup with two 7 footers in the paint would balance the offense and defense in the paint. I just wonder if McGee's mobility might not make him a better candidate at PF than Andray, but I'd consider Andray's defense way better right now.

Minor sticking point is I'd play Gil less than 36 minutes just as a precaution. Maybe 32 or so until after the all star break

Where I really love your post, Mosca, is that you didn't mention James (who I think might as well be waived to start next season).

Awesome first post.

[hands11]

Curry and DeJuan Blair intrigue me more than Blake Griffin for some reason. So does Patrick Patterson FWIW.

OUTLANDISH STATEMENT: Blair is better than Griffin, just based on stats.

Also, for the Wizards I really like Terrance Williams and Nick Calathes. Gerald Henderson II makes sense only if they trade Young. Rubio makes no sense with Gil IMO.

Two role players I really like (maybe because they're ACC players?) are Jack McClinton and Trevor Booker.

Honestly, I won't really look too hard at this year's talent til the NCAAs are over and before the draft.

That's what I do. I wait till the season is over to see where we are. Coming out of last season, I know I wanted a Center and a PG. I figured we could find a PG so I wanted us to draft a center to back up Haywood. I figured Haywood was coming into his prime so now would be a good time to get a young talented kid to grow over the next 3 years so they are ready to step in later. If last year showed us anything, it was that we needed a true center to back up Haywood instead of using players like Blatche or DSong who are really Power Forwards.

I had McGee and Hibbert on my short list. Hibbert was drafted by the time it was our pick, so we took McGee. I was happy. Side note. I think Lopez is a real gamer. He has an NBA ready body. Ready to step in day 1.

http://www.nba.com/statistics/player/Ef ... ll%20Teams

Anyway, I'll do the same thing this year. Only this it's a lot more complicated guessing what they will do. After all, that is all we are doing. We aren't deciding anything. We are only guessing what EG is going to do. It would be a little less complicated if we could see how they are planning on using GA.

[hands11]

First time post!

What does everyone think of this possible rotation next season...

C - Haywood (28) Mcgee (20)
PF - Blatche (30) Antawn (18)
SF - Caron (36) Antawn (12)
SG - Dom (26) Young (22)
PG - Gilbert (36) Critt (12)

I cant see where Darius, Stevenson, Thomas and Pech fit in, but certainly a solid 9 man rotation there. A big starting line-up with two 7-footers maning the paint and a nice balance of offence and defense. Instant offence off the bench from Antawn and Young with Mcgee and Critt providing some energy. Thoughts? Also what does everyone think Critt's role will be once Gil gets back? Any chance him playing alongside Gil at the 2?

Welcome Aboard.

I've been looking for a tall starting front court that can defend for years, with AJ coming off the bench. I just don't post much about it anymore because until that day comes that AJ isn't at starting PF, it's just not worth it so I try to come up with line ups with him starting. But with every additional year he is in the league, we get closer and closer to the day that the move will happen.

Sadly, a starting line up like that will most likely happen because of an AJ injury which isnt the same as having him available off the bench. I agree. 30 minutes of him tearing up 2nd line talent would be awesome. It would allow us to start the game with solid defense and feeding the post for fouls.

But sure, a line up like that would work fine. We just have to get our roster worked out first.

Actually, DSong fits in on any team. He is just a solid player. He will be there when you need him or he will sit and wait. And like I posted just a few posts back, since Abe is making money a non issue, Etan actually fits also as a back up option at PF/C if we don't move him. Between DSong and Etan you have your vet presence to back up McGee. McGee isn't going to be ready night in and night out next year. He will still be developing. Those two give us the muscle we need as back up players in the post.

But you still have DS to deal with. Unless he is out with back surgery, you have to deal with his presence. Also, you have to account for the draft pick.

So sure, you made a nice line up but you left out the reality of what the team will likely do and what it has to deal with regarding all it's players.

[nate33]

First time post!

What does everyone think of this possible rotation next season...

C - Haywood (28) Mcgee (20)
PF - Blatche (30) Antawn (18)
SF - Caron (36) Antawn (12)
SG - Dom (26) Young (22)
PG - Gilbert (36) Critt (12)

McGee isn't ready to be relied upon for 20 minutes a game. Haywood should also get more minutes. If Blatche improves enough where he can credibly challenge Jamison for the starting role, I'd do a lineup more like this:

C - Haywood (32), Blatche (8), McGee (8)
PF - Blatche (22), Jamison (26)
SF - Butler (34), Jamison (6), McGuire (8)
SG - McGuire (24), Young (24)
PG Arenas (36), Critt (12)

But for now, Blatche hasn't shown the consistency or effort to take the starting spot from Jamison. I agree that, ultimately, we'll be a better team once Blatche can take the starting role, but he just doesn't deserve it yet. Maybe he'll grow up this summer and spend more time in the gym and less time at night clubs.