How do you fix this team?

[nate33]

The way I see it is this:

Kanter ranks below Derrick Williams in every mock draft. In some drafts, he is way below Derrick Williams. I don't consider Derrick Williams to be a franchise player. He goes 5th or so in most drafts. Therefore, Kanter should not be considered a franchise player.

Is he the best fit for us? Sure. I think he'd be a nice addition to the ball club. I just recoil at this talk that we should include the #18 plus various combinations of Seraphin, Booker, Crawford and a top 3 protected pick next year. I'd part with the #18 or a lotto protected pick next year. I might throw in Seraphin simply because he wouldn't be needed after acquiring Kanter. I think we're reaching if we offer more than that.

[closg00]

Call me a hater, but I'd trade Crawford in a heartbeat. I'd like to send him to a team like Milwaukee desperate for scoring. Crawford and our 2nd for the #10 would be awesome. It turn the Hinrich trade into one of the most efficient exercises in mediocre pick accumulation in NBA history.

I don't know that-much about his charcter, but Marshon Brooks is looking to-be the steal of the draft, if I could trade Crawford or even Young and end-up with Brooks, I'd be all over that..

[Nivek]

Has anyone studied the careers of the players reviewed by the experts in all these mock drafts? Does anyone have a good record of providing reports that reflect the type of pro these players actually become? Just wondering.

[theboomking]

Has anyone studied the careers of the players reviewed by the experts in all these mock drafts? Does anyone have a good record of providing reports that reflect the type of pro these players actually become? Just wondering.

Nivek, that is a great question, to which I also want the answer.

As a recognized board statistician, what do you think of Marshon Brooks in terms of his college efficiency?

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I love how draft talk, trades etc. has migrated its way to just about every thread on this board. Exciting times.

Anyway, as far as floor-bound Power Forwards go, id rather have Kanter than Blatche.

Question: who do you guys like more; Kanter or Sullinger?

I'd take Kanter over Sully.

Well the 1st move changing the uniforms and logo was a nice step in the right direction IMO.

I'd like to see the Wizards bring in John Thompson in an advisory front office position similar to what GS has done with Jerry West. He is here and has good knowledge of the game, especially regarding big men and defense. But I think he's a name that just helps add to the view of the franchise in terms of respect more than anything else.

Add players in the draft who continue the attitude makeover of the team. Kanter at 6 would be perfect. Another pick who plays hard at 18 like Singleton, Faried, Klay Thompson, Morris, Harris. Maybe add another shooter at 34 like Harper or Parsons, or some pg depth with Nolan Smith or Ben Hansbrough.

I think dealing Blatche is an absolute must.

[LyricalRico]

Call me a hater, but I'd trade Crawford in a heartbeat. I'd like to send him to a team like Milwaukee desperate for scoring. Crawford and our 2nd for the #10 would be awesome. It turn the Hinrich trade into one of the most efficient exercises in mediocre pick accumulation in NBA history.

I actually think that's a pretty good idea. My new fave offseason scenario:

- we use 6+18+Seraphin to move up to #3 to take Kanter
- Leonard slips to #10 and we do the deal above (stranger things have happened)
- Nick Young is resigned
- Blatche traded to Houston for Thabeet and a future first
- Sign some vet backups

McGee/FA (Kristic, Mohammed, Battie, etc)
Kanter/Booker
Leonard/Lewis
Young/Jeffers
Wall/FA (A.Carter, Watson, etc)

Deep bench - Thabeet, Shakur, Owens

Of course, the toughest part is waiting to see if Leonard slips. But if all of those dominos fell, the roster for the rebuild would be pretty much set and now we'd just need to find the right coach.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Has anyone studied the careers of the players reviewed by the experts in all these mock drafts? Does anyone have a good record of providing reports that reflect the type of pro these players actually become? Just wondering.

Roland Beech (IIRC) has the study you pointed out to me that studies the success by where they were drafted. Every year there are comparisons made between various mocks and where players actually are drafted, to see which of the mocks predicted best. These type studies have been done. What I have not heard of is if any study qualitatively comparing expert rankings versus future success or failure over time. Good question, Nivek!

I haven't even really given much thought to exactly who should be considered expert. Teams have scouts. Who do the scouting services rely on? Are media types experts? What about draft wing nuts like us on message boards? I know a few who I would rank very high. Nivek, if that study hasn't been made I would wonder how you would construct your study. Who are the experts? What criteria would you evaluate on the pros? How specific does expert analysis have to be. Some guys like doc and pancakes can break down a tape for tendencies on players. Others of us look at numbers over time. doc has the metaphysicals he looks at. Dat watches a lot of these guys and has a pretty evolved way of ranking players. Me, I mostly go on numbers and gut feel. I don't watch like I used to, but I generally know a good player when I see one... Exactly who is an expert these days?

Sorry for the rant, but interesting question, Nivek.

[Ruzious]

Has anyone studied the careers of the players reviewed by the experts in all these mock drafts? Does anyone have a good record of providing reports that reflect the type of pro these players actually become? Just wondering.

Thing is - all of these guys change their mocks on a weekly or more frequent basis - especially as the draft draws near. What they have on one day might be completely different from what they had a few weeks earlier. I don't know what the criteria would be to judge them.

[Dat2U]

The way I see it is this:

Kanter ranks below Derrick Williams in every mock draft. In some drafts, he is way below Derrick Williams. I don't consider Derrick Williams to be a franchise player. He goes 5th or so in most drafts. Therefore, Kanter should not be considered a franchise player.

Is he the best fit for us? Sure. I think he'd be a nice addition to the ball club. I just recoil at this talk that we should include the #18 plus various combinations of Seraphin, Booker, Crawford and a top 3 protected pick next year. I'd part with the #18 or a lotto protected pick next year. I might throw in Seraphin simply because he wouldn't be needed after acquiring Kanter. I think we're reaching if we offer more than that.

I wouldn't trade next year's pick under any circumstances. No matter the protections on it. Instead I'd look to acquire 2012 picks if possible. I'd certainly would consider trading the 18th pick for a future draft pick depending on the protections.

Seraphin I'd be willing to part with. I wouldn't trade Crawford or Booker just yet.

[nate33]

Dat2U, I'd consider a lotto protected pick next year based on the following logic:

If we miss the playoffs next year, we'll keep the pick and utilize it ourselves.

If we make the playoffs next year, it'll most likely be due to major production from Wall, McGee and Kanter, which pretty much means that we'd have a pretty good young core in place and the loss of the #16 or so pick in the 2012 draft wouldn't be a crippling blow.


I've seen several trade-up offers than involve a 2012 top 3 protected pick. THAT'S where I don't agree. I would not sacrifice what is likely to be a 5-10 pick in next year's deep draft just to upgrade from Leonard to Kanter. But if we're only giving up a #16-20 pick, then it doesn't bother me.

[Nivek]

Has anyone studied the careers of the players reviewed by the experts in all these mock drafts? Does anyone have a good record of providing reports that reflect the type of pro these players actually become? Just wondering.

Thing is - all of these guys change their mocks on a weekly or more frequent basis - especially as the draft draws near. What they have on one day might be completely different from what they had a few weeks earlier. I don't know what the criteria would be to judge them.

I'd want to look more at the narrative they write. Who do they say the player is like? What kind of impact are they predicting/implying from their write-up? I think that's a lot more important than whether they predict the correct order of selection or whatever. And, it also might give an indicator about whose scouting report is trustworthy.

[Nivek]

Has anyone studied the careers of the players reviewed by the experts in all these mock drafts? Does anyone have a good record of providing reports that reflect the type of pro these players actually become? Just wondering.

Nivek, that is a great question, to which I also want the answer.

As a recognized board statistician, what do you think of Marshon Brooks in terms of his college efficiency?

I don't think I've ever seen him play, but he scores a lot in a competitive conference and with good efficiency. His efg went up every year in college. He improved his 3pt shooting and FT shooting as well. Rebounding looked to be a relative weakness, but got better in his senior season. I don't like his turnovers. I'd like to have seen more assists, but he's a scorer, probably out of necessity at Providence.

It's funny -- just looking at his numbers, I sorta thought he looked like somebody worth taking in the 2nd round depending on who else is available. Then I surf to his page on Draft Express and find that they have him slotted as a late 1st. Their "Best Case" -- Nick Young. "Worst Case" -- Henry Domercant.

One of the more interesting draft stat analyses is by a guy named Harlan Schreiber. He compares the college stats of the current year's draft prospects to the college numbers of NBA players. Very interesting to see which kinds of college stat profiles typically translate into good pros. I haven't studied his results (but I guarantee that he has), but my impression is that he gets more calls right than wrong.

[JonathanJoseph]

The way I see it is this:

Kanter ranks below Derrick Williams in every mock draft. In some drafts, he is way below Derrick Williams. I don't consider Derrick Williams to be a franchise player. He goes 5th or so in most drafts. Therefore, Kanter should not be considered a franchise player.

Is he the best fit for us? Sure. I think he'd be a nice addition to the ball club. I just recoil at this talk that we should include the #18 plus various combinations of Seraphin, Booker, Crawford and a top 3 protected pick next year. I'd part with the #18 or a lotto protected pick next year. I might throw in Seraphin simply because he wouldn't be needed after acquiring Kanter. I think we're reaching if we offer more than that.

+1 for not drinking draft-time kool aid.

I think it would be insane to be trading 2 or even 3 significant assets for a player who no one has seen play a full basketball game versus NBA caliber talent.

Kanter is not considered as highly coveted as other Euros who have done nothing in the NBA.

[dangermouse]

I just recoil at this talk that we should include the #18 plus various combinations of Seraphin, Booker, Crawford and a top 3 protected pick next year. I'd part with the #18 or a lotto protected pick next year. I might throw in Seraphin simply because he wouldn't be needed after acquiring Kanter. I think we're reaching if we offer more than that.

For Minny's #2 pick, I think the best value/most I would give them in a deal would be one of these:

- #6, #18, Seraphin
- #6, #34, Young, Seraphin
- #18, #34, Crawford, Seraphin

if they played hardball

- #6, #34, Crawford, Seraphin

I see Crawford as having good value. He impressed enough to finish 4th or 5th (around there somewhere) on the NBA.com rookie ladder. Minny might prefer to take the younger SG as they may decide he has more upside. I'd prefer to keep him so hopefully the Young to Minny rumour isnt just a smokescreen to draw something better out of another team.

[NbdyBeatsTheWiz]

I just recoil at this talk that we should include the #18 plus various combinations of Seraphin, Booker, Crawford and a top 3 protected pick next year. I'd part with the #18 or a lotto protected pick next year. I might throw in Seraphin simply because he wouldn't be needed after acquiring Kanter. I think we're reaching if we offer more than that.

For Minny's #2 pick, I think the best value/most I would give them in a deal would be one of these:

- #6, #18, Seraphin
- #6, #34, Young, Seraphin
- #18, #34, Crawford, Seraphin

if they played hardball

- #6, #34, Crawford, Seraphin

I see Crawford as having good value. He impressed enough to finish 4th or 5th (around there somewhere) on the NBA.com rookie ladder. Minny might prefer to take the younger SG as they may decide he has more upside. I'd prefer to keep him so hopefully the Young to Minny rumour isnt just a smokescreen to draw something better out of another team.

If the price is that high I'd pass. We have too many holes to fill to trade so many pegs for one who's far from a sure thing. Even with Kanter gone by our slot we could draft Biyombo, a possible contributor in the 2nd like a Nolan Smith/JaJuan Johnson/etc. in the 2nd, keep Crawford who has flashed lots of promise, and hold onto Seraphin who... well has a fun name to pronounce??

In my mind we're in the same boat as the Skins were when they drafted. We have plenty of holes to fill, and we aren't in the ideal situation to trade the farm for one hyped prospect. I understand an NBA roster is a fraction of the size, but we still need a lot (physical big man, SF, backup PG, etc.) and a larger number of picks and players gives us a better chance of filling those needs.

[Illuminaire]

To play the devil's advocate here, part of the reason Kanter isn't considered a OMG!!! prospect is his workman-like athleticism. He's a pounder, a guy who grinds out rebounds with position and strength rather than high-flying and extendo-arms.

Obviously he'll never be Dwight Howard. At the same time, how good would a 6"11 Scola or Millsap be? Isn't that a championship caliber player with the right pieces around him?

I think that's why the Wiz have to work Kanter out, see for themselves what his skills are. There's a chance Enes could be Zach Randolph with two inches more height and a great attitude coming out the gate... maybe that wouldn't be the kind of dude you stick on the cover of NBA2K12, but he'd be one hell of a player.

There's a solid chance he'll bottom out well beneath that ceiling, of course. I only suggest we do our due diligence - and if the odds are looking good, we try to trade up and roll the dice.

Edit: I'd really prefer to get him at 3 or 4 with minimal investment cost. If we have to trade for the #2, we'd better be darned sure he's worth it.

[jimij]

I'd give up the #6, #18 and Seraphin for Kanter (although I'd at least ask for a 2nd rounder back) but wouldn't throw Crawford in unless it was just him and the 6th pick.

Only reason I'm willing to include Seraphin is Kanter makes him a bit redundant and we can only develop so many bigs at once.

If we offer next year's pick plus the #6, I'd want it to at least be top ten protected.

It's a real shame Nick doesn't have one year left on his rookie deal because he could been a huge help in a draft day trade scenario.

[fishercob]

I'd give up the #6, #18 and Seraphin for Kanter (although I'd at least ask for a 2nd rounder back) but wouldn't throw Crawford in unless it was just him and the 6th pick.

Only reason I'm willing to include Seraphin is Kanter makes him a bit redundant and we can only develop so many bigs at once.

If we offer next year's pick plus the #6, I'd want it to at least be top ten protected.

It's a real shame Nick doesn't have one year left on his rookie deal because he could been a huge help in a draft day trade scenario.

I'd give up Crawford before Seraphin. Kevin's going to take longer to develop, but we've got time. What he stands to bring to the team is much harder to find that what Crawford does. If we're lucky enough to move Kanter, I'd happy move Blatche and develop a young frontcourt of McGee, kanter, Booker and Seraphin.

[Higga]

I don't get the Seraphin hype. He's got potential sure but he's raw as hell. Crawford has already proven worst case scenario he can be a decent 6th man in the NBA. Yeah he was streaky and inconsistent but even as a rookie he was putting up some sick #s. I'm not saying he's in John Wall untouchable status but I'd easily throw Seraphin in a deal to move up for Kanter before I dealt Crawford. Yeah big men are more valuable but if we get Kanter we'd be overloaded with young developmental bigs, on the flip side Young is a FA and if we dealt Crawford we could pretty much have noone worth a damn at SG.

[JonathanJoseph]

I don't get the Seraphin hype. He's got potential sure but he's raw as hell. Crawford has already proven worst case scenario he can be a decent 6th man in the NBA. Yeah he was streaky and inconsistent but even as a rookie he was putting up some sick #s. I'm not saying he's in John Wall untouchable status but I'd easily throw Seraphin in a deal to move up for Kanter before I dealt Crawford. Yeah big men are more valuable but if we get Kanter we'd be overloaded with young developmental bigs, on the flip side Young is a FA and if we dealt Crawford we could pretty much have noone worth a damn at SG.

21 year old big bruisers with a soft touch are not easy to find. Players like Crawford are easy to find.

If one is to look at the OKC model, Sam Presti has definitely been stockpiling big man prospects waiting/hoping for any to pan out and look at what he landed in Serge Ibaka. He's still got Cole Aldrich and Byron Mullens waiting in the wings. You can never have enough young, big men prospects, and Seraphin is definitely one to stash away.