Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 2

[dangermouse]

I know its just preseason, but the Lakers arent going to register a win.

They look lost on offense. I'd bet a modest sum that Brown gets fired after 25 or so games. This team has too much pressure on them to be elite.

[closg00]

Yep, the Laker offense stinks so-far, they better get their Shyt together or there will be no Laker vs Heat finals.
http://www.latimes.com/sports/lakersnow ... ?track=rss

[Nivek]

Back to Derrick Brown for a sec -- he was the only player on Charlotte last year who rated "above average" in my stat system. He scored a 103 -- average is 100. He's not going to make much of a difference, but he's as good as anyone else the Wizards have at SF, and he's WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY better than Crawford if they used him at SG.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Yep, the Laker offense stinks so-far, they better get their Shyt together or there will be no Laker vs Heat finals.
http://www.latimes.com/sports/lakersnow ... ?track=rss

I'm wondering when, not if, Mike Brown and Eddie Jordan get fired. I give them 30 games if the Lakers are not well above .500.

[I_Like_Dirt]

Brown and Jordan may eventually get fired but it won't be because the Lakers aren't way above .500 this season. Preseason means nothing. They'll be ready to go in the regular season. If those guys get fired it will be due to a lack of playoff success.

[Nivek]

NBA preseason record actually has a surprisingly high correlation with regular season success. Someone actually did the study, and the results surprised me. Lemme see if I can find it.

[Nivek]

Yep, here it is.

Overall, there was a .40 correlation between preseason win% and regular season win%. So, a moderate correlation.

Previous year's win% had a .57 correlation.

Here's where it got more interesting:

- Teams coming off less than a 30-win season -- .69 correlation (strong)
- 30-39 win season -- .38 (moderate)
- 40-49 win season -- .43
- 50+ win season -- -.04

Bad teams from the previous season that had winning preseason records had an average gain of 19 wins.

[tontoz]

Yep, here it is.

Overall, there was a .40 correlation between preseason win% and regular season win%. So, a moderate correlation.

Previous year's win% had a .57 correlation.

Here's where it got more interesting:

- Teams coming off less than a 30-win season -- .69 correlation (strong)
- 30-39 win season -- .38 (moderate)
- 40-49 win season -- .43
- 50+ win season -- -.04

Bad teams from the previous season that had winning preseason records had an average gain of 19 wins.

Interesting stuff. Several here were quick to dismiss the win against the Heat even though Wall/Nene were out and Wade/Lebron played more minutes than anyone.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Yep, here it is.

Overall, there was a .40 correlation between preseason win% and regular season win%. So, a moderate correlation.

Previous year's win% had a .57 correlation.

Here's where it got more interesting:

- Teams coming off less than a 30-win season -- .69 correlation (strong)
- 30-39 win season -- .38 (moderate)
- 40-49 win season -- .43
- 50+ win season -- -.04

Bad teams from the previous season that had winning preseason records had an average gain of 19 wins.

Really good find, Nivek!

The Warriors and the Kings are 5-2. The Toronto Raptors, at 4-1, have won their last 4 preseason games. Also posting a winning record, the Houston Rockets are 4-2.

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/teams/stat ... ento-kings
Gotta like the Kings' bench. Aaron Brooks, Chuck Hayes, James Johnson, Thomas Robinson, Francisco Garcia. Even Jimmer Fredette has improved. Cousins lost weight and looks a lot quicker.

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/teams/stat ... e-warriors
Between Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes, Stephen Curry, and Brandon Rush this team will lead the league in three point field goals made. They are shooting phenomenally well in preseason. Ezeli is the shot blocker they have needed. Lee can rebound and score. This is a playoff team.

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/teams/stat ... on-rockets
Kevin Martin has been on fire. Asik is killing it on the boards. The Rockets are the #1 scoring team but they are 28th in defense. It will be interesting to see if first-time starter Patrick Patterson fends off Terrence Jones. Lin has had a miserable preseason. Machado has been good.

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/teams/stat ... to-raptors
The Raptors have been stout on offense and defense, ranking 4th and 11th in preseason. They appear to have 3 PGs who are more capable than any healthy Wizard PG: Kyle Lowry, Jose Calderon, and John Lucas III. Derozan has played over his head IMO in preseason--don't think he's that good but he's had a good preseason. Jonas Valenciunas is a shot blocker, rebounder, and a star in the making. Ed Davis is stepping up. Amir Johnson is a good defensive presence. The Raptors should finish ahead of the Wizards. Terrence Ross has been nowhere near as effective as I thought. I liked him as much or more than Beal prior to the draft.

I think it is very plausible that GS and possibly TOR make the playoffs. Sacramento is going to be a whole lot better, too.

[I_Like_Dirt]

Yep, here it is.

Overall, there was a .40 correlation between preseason win% and regular season win%. So, a moderate correlation.

Previous year's win% had a .57 correlation.

Here's where it got more interesting:

- Teams coming off less than a 30-win season -- .69 correlation (strong)
- 30-39 win season -- .38 (moderate)
- 40-49 win season -- .43
- 50+ win season -- -.04

Bad teams from the previous season that had winning preseason records had an average gain of 19 wins.

I actually remember this study and recall seeing a couple others, too. The point here, though, was that there was pretty much never a correlation between good teams and preseasons. Miami and LA are still going to throttle the league this upcoming season. They aren't going to challenge for 72-10 but they're going to get top 3 seeds in their conference and be bulldozers in their conference no matter what preseason shows. Teams like the Raptors and Sixers who have been tearing up the preseason are a little more interesting candidates for this kind of analysis. Not that they're going to continue winning 80% of their games but they're pretty strong candidates to show a significant improvement for next season over last season. The caveats there are that last season's compressed schedule threw things out of whack a bit and even so the Raptors only would have been a 29-win team if stretched out to an 82-game season so they'd be seeing a rather significant win increase even if they didn't play .500 ball.

[mhd]

WOW, Derozen gets 4 years, at least 36 million (could be as much as 42 million). Don't think he's worth more than 6 million per year.

[nate33]

WOW, Derozen gets 4 years, at least 36 million (could be as much as 42 million). Don't think he's worth more than 6 million per year.

A terrible signing. What is Toronto thinking?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Darius Miller came in and hit his first shot, a three. He was the #46 pick of New Orleans.

The Hornets got something for the pick they fleeced from the Wizards.

I wonder how many years it will be before the Wizards get anything from their #32 pick? Ernie could be fired, the other Czetch Jan Vesely could be traded or on the way back to Europe, or at best it could be years to get two points from Tomas Satoransky.

[montestewart]

WOW, Derozen gets 4 years, at least 36 million (could be as much as 42 million). Don't think he's worth more than 6 million per year.

A terrible signing. What is Toronto thinking?

I can barely see paying him more than Nick Young. He's a below average player with an above average strut.

[verbal8]

WOW, Derozen gets 4 years, at least 36 million (could be as much as 42 million). Don't think he's worth more than 6 million per year.

Yeah that was probably the worst of the recently announced extensions.

It wasn't as dramatic, but I think the Bulls overpayed for Taj Gibson. Ryan Anderson was signed for in the same range and I think has a lot more upside.

The other signings(Holiday and Curry) seemed about right.

Harden really looked like he was worth the max extension in his first game with the Rockets. It is only one game, but it does look promising regarding how he will perform as a first option.

[dobrojim]

don't see the old other team's games thread but LMAO at
the Lakers at 0-2. Have to admit that I'm surprised but
at this point I'm questioning (prematurely?) how good they actually
will end up being. They still have Mr Potato Head as coach.
And if they fire him, could end up with EJ iirc (nice guy, bad coach).

[verbal8]

don't see the old other team's games thread but LMAO at
the Lakers at 0-2. Have to admit that I'm surprised but
at this point I'm questioning (prematurely?) how good they actually
will end up being. They still have Mr Potato Head as coach.
And if they fire him, could end up with EJ iirc (nice guy, bad coach).

There issues seem to be on the offensive side of the ball. I think this would mean EJ goes first. I think the only teams that would consider EJ as a head coach would be those trying to develop young talent and not wanting to pay top dollar for a head coach. If the Lakers make a coaching change, I think they almost have to get a big name, given how they have gone all-in on "Win-Now".

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I watched the LAL/POR game and thought their offense was fine. Howard was on fire and he even hit his FTs. The Lakers closed to 76-79 but Portland went on a huge run at the end of the third and was up, 78-92 real quick. Portland hit a bunch of threes and they also seemed much quicker to the glass.

The Lakers can't stop dribble penetration and their defense is their single biggest problem IMO.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

don't see the old other team's games thread but LMAO at
the Lakers at 0-2. Have to admit that I'm surprised but
at this point I'm questioning (prematurely?) how good they actually
will end up being. They still have Mr Potato Head as coach.
And if they fire him, could end up with EJ iirc (nice guy, bad coach).

Not me.

I irritated some Laker fans before the season started by predicting the Lakers would have trouble defending on the perimeter, they would struggle with old players trying to fit a new system, Steve Nash should have the ball in his hands and the Princeton is designed just the opposite, and that I worried due to their age the Lakers would suffer injuries. Kobe's foot is problematic. Nash banged knees and they're saying it's just a contusion but his knee buckled. He looks frail. Their defense is really looking bad right now. Barnes and Sessions, a bad defender, were quicker than Artest/MWP and Nash. Kobe and Nash together are not going to want to chase on the perimeter.

I'm not surprised at anything except how fast it took for problems to surface.

They've lost all 10 games (8 in preseason) plus their last two last year. That's 12 straight losses. NO WAY the Lakers win a title without a trade. However, they have all season and the they will straighten out things. I think all they have to do is make the playoffs as a top-4 seed.

[Nivek]

The recent extensions per my salary formula:

- Steph Curry: Got 4/$44 mil; Salary Formula says: 4/$42.1 mil (per minute, much higher -- discount comes from injury)

- Ty Lawson: Got 4/$48 mil; Salary Formula says: 4/$55.7 mil

- Jrue Holiday: Got 4/$42 mil; Salary Formula says: 4/$37.7 mil

- DeMar Derozan: Got 4/$38 mil; Salary Formula says: 4/$19 mil

- James Harden: Got 5/$80 mil; Salary Formula says: 5/$71 mil