Official Trade Thread Part XLV

[gambitx777]

I know I've had a few back and forths with Nate about this but hear me out

Unless kuz on 0000 the day the league calendar starts exercises his opt out. He can be traded anytime before he does on his current deal. Now what does the other team get well they get his bird rights, they have the ability to sign him if they don't have cap room . They get him at 13 if he decides not to opt out there is one situation in the league where this would make sense

The suns report have surfaced that they have interest in monte Morris.

Kuz, monte, and wright, cooks
For
Chris Paul, #52, 24-25-26-27-28 second round picks and a first round pick swap in 2024.

Now considering that JAE crowder got traded for like 4-5 seconds last year and Rui was worth like 2-3 I think this is a steal for the suns. Even if kuz opts out the money filler makes the deal work. They have his bird right and can pay him when they couldn't before and I'm sure kuz would be interested in playing for a contender and a number that they couldn't offer him before. He would be the legit 3-4th option on a contender and the #2 guy when Durant or booker is resting. This would Bassically get back the depth the traded for Durant. Even if cuz walks it's decent value for two starting quality guards and a depth big.

For us I think we are giving up a bit too much for what we are getting for 6 seconds and swap that we are gonna be too bad to use.
But then we have CP3. Not that I want a CP3 that's 8000 years old, but the Lakers do.

So! We trade chairs Paul to the Lakers
For #17, Beasley and mo Bamba.

Then we can trade mo Bamba or Beasley somewhere else. Young back up centers and 3 point shooters are always on teams radars.

Or we trade CP3 to the nets for idk Joe Harris patty mills and #21

Eith way we just kept adding assets !

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[nate33]

I know I've had a few back and forths with Nate about this but hear me out

Unless kuz on 0000 the day the league calendar starts exercises his opt out. He can be traded anytime before he does on his current deal. Now what does the other team get well they get his bird rights, they have the ability to sign him if they don't have cap room . They get him at 13 if he decides not to opt out there is one situation in the league where this would make sense

The suns report have surfaced that they have interest in monte Morris.

Kuz, monte, and wright, cooks
For
Chris Paul, #52, 24-25-26-27-28 second round picks and a first round pick swap in 2024.

Now considering that JAE crowder got traded for like 4-5 seconds last year and Rui was worth like 2-3 I think this is a steal for the suns. Even if kuz opts out the money filler makes the deal work. They have his bird right and can pay him when they couldn't before and I'm sure kuz would be interested in playing for a contender and a number that they couldn't offer him before. He would be the legit 3-4th option on a contender and the #2 guy when Durant or booker is resting. This would Bassically get back the depth the traded for Durant. Even if cuz walks it's decent value for two starting quality guards and a depth big.

For us I think we are giving up a bit too much for what we are getting for 6 seconds and swap that we are gonna be too bad to use.
But then we have CP3. Not that I want a CP3 that's 8000 years old, but the Lakers do.

So! We trade chairs Paul to the Lakers
For #17, Beasley and mo Bamba.

Then we can trade mo Bamba or Beasley somewhere else. Young back up centers and 3 point shooters are always on teams radars.

Or we trade CP3 to the nets for idk Joe Harris patty mills and #21

Eith way we just kept adding assets !

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

It can't happen gambitx777. I don't know what else to tell you. By June 21st, Kuzma must decide whether to opt in or opt out. He absolutely will decide to opt out because opting in only gets him $13M, and arranging an opt-out-and-extend deal with the Wizards only gets him $15.2M.

So, on June 21st, Kuzma will no longer be a Wizard. We will still have Bird Rights on him, but think of that as having a special exception to the cap, not any actual association with Kuzma himself.

The draft takes place on June 22nd. We will not be able to involve Kuzma in any draft day trade because he will be an unrestricted free agent with no allegiance to any team and no team can complete any binding negotiations with him until after the July Moratorium.

After the July Moratorium, we could conceivably sign Kuzma to any sized contract we want using Bird Rights, and part of that transaction could include a S&T sending him elsewhere. But the 2023 Draft will be ancient history at that point. It would be far too late to trade him for Chris Paul and then trade Chris Paul for the Lakers #17 pick.

[nate33]

I don't really see any likely Kuzma trades. The problem is, we will have to take $20M back in bad contracts, so that's already a serious negative outcome that would require maybe a 1st round pick to compensate for. So some team is going to have to want Kuzma bad enough to give us a 1st for the bad contract we eat, plus some more compensation for Kuzma himself. I don't see any team being thrilled to pay, say, two 1st round picks for the pleasure of signing Kuzma to 4-year $90M contract. It's further complicated by the fact that few over-the-cap teams in need of Kuzma have spare 1st round picks to trade.

[gambitx777]

I know I've had a few back and forths with Nate about this but hear me out

Unless kuz on 0000 the day the league calendar starts exercises his opt out. He can be traded anytime before he does on his current deal. Now what does the other team get well they get his bird rights, they have the ability to sign him if they don't have cap room . They get him at 13 if he decides not to opt out there is one situation in the league where this would make sense

The suns report have surfaced that they have interest in monte Morris.

Kuz, monte, and wright, cooks
For
Chris Paul, #52, 24-25-26-27-28 second round picks and a first round pick swap in 2024.

Now considering that JAE crowder got traded for like 4-5 seconds last year and Rui was worth like 2-3 I think this is a steal for the suns. Even if kuz opts out the money filler makes the deal work. They have his bird right and can pay him when they couldn't before and I'm sure kuz would be interested in playing for a contender and a number that they couldn't offer him before. He would be the legit 3-4th option on a contender and the #2 guy when Durant or booker is resting. This would Bassically get back the depth the traded for Durant. Even if cuz walks it's decent value for two starting quality guards and a depth big.

For us I think we are giving up a bit too much for what we are getting for 6 seconds and swap that we are gonna be too bad to use.
But then we have CP3. Not that I want a CP3 that's 8000 years old, but the Lakers do.

So! We trade chairs Paul to the Lakers
For #17, Beasley and mo Bamba.

Then we can trade mo Bamba or Beasley somewhere else. Young back up centers and 3 point shooters are always on teams radars.

Or we trade CP3 to the nets for idk Joe Harris patty mills and #21

Eith way we just kept adding assets !

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

It can't happen gambitx777. I don't know what else to tell you. By June 21st, Kuzma must decide whether to opt in or opt out. He absolutely will decide to opt out because opting in only gets him $13M, and arranging an opt-out-and-extend deal with the Wizards only gets him $15.2M.

So, on June 21st, Kuzma will no longer be a Wizard. We will still have Bird Rights on him, but think of that as having a special exception to the cap, not any actual association with Kuzma himself.

The draft takes place on June 22nd. We will not be able to involve Kuzma in any draft day trade because he will be an unrestricted free agent with no allegiance to any team and no team can complete any binding negotiations with him until after the July Moratorium.

After the July Moratorium, we could conceivably sign Kuzma to any sized contract we want using Bird Rights, and part of that transaction could include a S&T sending him elsewhere. But the 2023 Draft will be ancient history at that point. It would be far too late to trade him for Chris Paul and then trade Chris Paul for the Lakers #17 pick.

Nate you're probably correct in how that's gonna work out, but you're not correct in saying it can't happen. Kuz is under contract with an opt out clause and until he exercises that clause, calls the office and faxes the paper over he's under contract. Once the finals endcontracts can be moved and trades can be executed again. When the league year ends and the new one begins Kyle can opt out but if he takes a day or two any time between the new league year and the deadline for his opt out if his agent doesn't make that call and send that fax executing his clause we can trade his contract.

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[nate33]

A Beal to Philly trade can work out real nicely salary-wise if the trade is made with the cooperation of Houston. The assumption here is that Harden is going to Houston. If Philly throws them a 2nd round pick, they'd presumably be amenable to making the Harden to Houston action a trade rather than a free agent signing. Then, Philly could roll Beal into the transaction using Harden's outgoing salary to match Beal's incoming.

So it would look something like this:

Washington trades: Beal
Washington receives: "incentive" from Philly, big fat TPE from Houston

Philly trades: Harden + "incentive" + 2027 2RP
Philly receives: Beal

Houston trades: nothing
Houston receives: Harden, PHI 2027 2RP

The only question is, what is the "incentive". Philly has nothing of value except Maxey and their 2029 FRP and 2nd round picks in 2028 and 2029. Philly wouldn't be thrilled about including Maxey, but Embiid isn't going to be very happy if Harden walks and is replaced with nothing. We would presumably offer one of Morris/Wright in return for sending Maxey. The trade could even be expanded to incorporate a Kuzma/Harris swap.

Such a trade would probably take place several days after the July Moratorium after Harden's contract price has been set by the market and after Philly has explored trade options similar to this one only with some other team and player replacing us and Beal.

[nate33]

One thing to bear in mind is that although the deal seems pretty light in terms of incentive we get back (particularly if Maxey isn't included), we would be getting a $30M or so TPE and we would have the luxtax room to make use of it. As the harder cap of the new CBA bears down on teams, we could use that TPE as a means of saving some other team a lot of money.

If Curry has a season-ending injury in February or something, would Golden State just give us Poole and Kuminga in order to save themselves about $150M in luxtax fees? Likewise with Miami. If Bam goes down, would they give us a future 1st to absorb Lowry's deal?

[gambitx777]

One thing to bear in mind is that although the deal seems pretty light in terms of incentive we get back (particularly if Maxey isn't included), we would be getting a $30M or so TPE and we would have the luxtax room to make use of it. As the harder cap of the new CBA bears down on teams, we could use that TPE as a means of saving some other team a lot of money.

If Curry has a season-ending injury in February or something, would Golden State just give us Poole and Kuminga in order to save themselves about $150M in luxtax fees? Likewise with Miami. If Bam goes down, would they give us a future 1st to absorb Lowry's deal?

That is a really smart trade Nate but if harden wants Huston and do they reallyeed compensation. Like teams help teams out all the time. Harden and DM are tight. Maybe Huston does this and we get what ever picks they can toss at us from Philly. I would ask for all 6 of their seconds they can trade and the 2029 first and Jaden springer we have a TPE so we can absorb him as well and not mess with our 46 mill TPE from Beal.

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[closg00]

Dreaming of a Beal to Heat trade, they want a star

[nate33]

Dreaming of a Beal to Heat trade, they want a star

Yeah, I figure Miami puts a floor on the return for any Beal trade. It's a pretty good bet we could trade Beal ($46.7M) and get back the #17 pick plus some combination of the following contracts:

Lowry - 1 year at $29.6M
Herro - 4 years at $27M, $29M, $31M, $33M
Robinson - 2 years at $18M and $19M (plus a 3rd year buyout of $10M)
Oladipo - 1 year at $9.4M
Jovic - 3 years at rookie scale with next year at $2.3M

I'm guessing Miami would insist on including Herro because they don't want two guys making a combined $75M for the next 4 years to play the same position. So the likely deal would be Beal for Herro, Oladipo, #17 and maybe Jovic. Basically, Miami runs this roster back, but with Beal replacing Strus.

So when Philly fans say they refuse to give us Maxey in a Beal trade and act as if we should be grateful just to get Beal off the books, we can respond that if they want Beal to replace Harden, they're going to have to offer a package better than the Miami deal.

[pcbothwel]

One thing to bear in mind is that although the deal seems pretty light in terms of incentive we get back (particularly if Maxey isn't included), we would be getting a $30M or so TPE and we would have the luxtax room to make use of it. As the harder cap of the new CBA bears down on teams, we could use that TPE as a means of saving some other team a lot of money.

If Curry has a season-ending injury in February or something, would Golden State just give us Poole and Kuminga in order to save themselves about $150M in luxtax fees? Likewise with Miami. If Bam goes down, would they give us a future 1st to absorb Lowry's deal?

I love it and was thinking about this yesterday. The Harris for Kuz/Monte is an interesting twist, but is that doable? I thought you cannot combine SnT player with other, and Harris makes way too much (39M) vs what Kuz's starting salary (22-26M).

That said, I fully expect a Beal/Monte for Herro, Lowry, Jovic, 18, 2028 (with protection) trade to come to fruition.

[Rafael122]

Dreaming of a Beal to Heat trade, they want a star

Yeah, I figure Miami puts a floor on the return for any Beal trade. It's a pretty good bet we could trade Beal ($46.7M) and get back the #17 pick plus some combination of the following contracts:

Lowry - 1 year at $29.6M
Herro - 4 years at $27M, $29M, $31M, $33M
Robinson - 2 years at $18M and $19M (plus a 3rd year buyout of $10M)
Oladipo - 1 year at $9.4M
Jovic - 3 years at rookie scale with next year at $2.3M

I'm guessing Miami would insist on including Herro because they don't want two guys making a combined $75M for the next 4 years to play the same position. So the likely deal would be Beal for Herro, Oladipo, #17 and maybe Jovic. Basically, Miami runs this roster back, but with Beal replacing Strus.

So when Philly fans say they refuse to give us Maxey in a Beal trade and act as if we should be grateful just to get Beal off the books, we can respond that if they want Beal to replace Harden, they're going to have to offer a package better than the Miami deal.

My only hesitation with a trade with Miami is that we're literally trading him within the division. Within the conference is one thing, but the division? But you're right, if it came down to Philly or Miami, and Philly isn't including Maxey in the deal, Philly doesn't have enough. They can't trade their '24 FRP until draft night in 2024, their 25 FRP has protections through 2027 w/OKC, and their FRP they owe to Brooklyn is contingent on when they send a FRP to OKC and that BKN pick runs through like 2028. It's a mess, plus we have to turn around and give Maxey 200 over 5 putting us in the same situation we have now. I'd rather have a clean cap sheet.

[tleikheen]

Now that the season is over Im not sure when Herro's 27 mil contract kicks in but a
Beal 43 mil for Herro 27 mil & Duncan Robinson 16 mil salary matches .......

Herro PG) is a career 38 percent 3P and 87 percent FT and 23 y o. Duncan Robinson played great ball and would help with 3P shooting BUT the main reason for the trade is to get out of Beal's contract.

[Rafael122]

I want the Wizards to be what OKC is now, a plucky 38-40 win team with a **** ton of draft picks and a clean cap sheet that would allow them to absorb contracts in exchange for picks. There's going to be so many teams over the next year to 18 months trying to jump off salaries b/c of the second apron: Hawks, Warriors, Heat etc that I would want us to be in a position where we can be a trade partner and take advantage.

[pcbothwel]

Dreaming of a Beal to Heat trade, they want a star

Yeah, I figure Miami puts a floor on the return for any Beal trade. It's a pretty good bet we could trade Beal ($46.7M) and get back the #17 pick plus some combination of the following contracts:

Lowry - 1 year at $29.6M
Herro - 4 years at $27M, $29M, $31M, $33M
Robinson - 2 years at $18M and $19M (plus a 3rd year buyout of $10M)
Oladipo - 1 year at $9.4M
Jovic - 3 years at rookie scale with next year at $2.3M

I'm guessing Miami would insist on including Herro because they don't want two guys making a combined $75M for the next 4 years to play the same position. So the likely deal would be Beal for Herro, Oladipo, #17 and maybe Jovic. Basically, Miami runs this roster back, but with Beal replacing Strus.

So when Philly fans say they refuse to give us Maxey in a Beal trade and act as if we should be grateful just to get Beal off the books, we can respond that if they want Beal to replace Harden, they're going to have to offer a package better than the Miami deal.

My only hesitation with a trade with Miami is that we're literally trading him within the division. Within the conference is one thing, but the division? But you're right, if it came down to Philly or Miami, and Philly isn't including Maxey in the deal, Philly doesn't have enough. They can't trade their '24 FRP until draft night in 2024, their 25 FRP has protections through 2027 w/OKC, and their FRP they owe to Brooklyn is contingent on when they send a FRP to OKC and that BKN pick runs through like 2028. It's a mess, plus we have to turn around and give Maxey 200 over 5 putting us in the same situation we have now. I'd rather have a clean cap sheet.

Trading him within the division should be our goal if we want to compete in 3-4 years. Are you really worried about a Heat team in 2026 on with Butler making 50M+ in his late 30's, an aging Beal, and no draft picks?
To me, this weakens our opponent at a time we plan to be stronger.

And totally agree with Nate. I keep hearing Philly fans act like Harris + protected pick is THE BEST we can get from them... Lol. Ok, good luck with that. Beal wont DEMAND to go to Philly. He'll give us a list of ~5 teams that he likes and are interested in trading for him, and at least 1-2 of those will be decent returns.

I still love a Maxey plus 40M TPE trade... with maybe another protected pick. Give the FO the opportunity to get creative and take on salary from a team reeling and staring down a huge tax burden. Anytime we can spend $1 so another team can save $2, you have to think there is some value to extract.

[nate33]

Now that the season is over Im not sure when Herro's 27 mil contract kicks in but a
Beal 43 mil for Herro 27 mil & Duncan Robinson 16 mil salary matches .......

Herro PG) is a career 38 percent 3P and 87 percent FT and 23 y o. Duncan Robinson played great ball and would help with 3P shooting BUT the main reason for the trade is to get out of Beal's contract.

Neither Herro nor Duncan Robinson can play defense. Kispert isn't the hottest defender in the world either. Maybe you can cover for one non-defender in a lineup, but not two or three. If we can only play one of these dudes at a time, there's no way we need all 3 of them. If they're trading us Herro, the remaining salary filler must be Oladipo or Lowry - NOT Duncan Robinson.

[tleikheen]

Neither Herro nor Duncan Robinson can play defense. Kispert isn't the hottest defender in the world either

if you watched the Nuggets this year ....at all ,this was said about Jokic ,Porter Jr , and Murray ,the Nuggets big 3 but we watched their team defense get better and better as they marched through the playoffs. i seen alot of Denver these past 4 yrs and knew their offense was what was going to lead them to the NBA championship. They showed offense wins and OK defense can get it done. Now applying that to the Wiz and WUJ ,their also poor defensively and a top 5 offense when KP is playing .
Also as seen the Lakers were being billed as the top defense after the trades and got smoked and schredded by the Denver offense and couldn't compete offensively. Good offense and length is what is winning now.

[tontoz]

I don't really see any likely Kuzma trades. The problem is, we will have to take $20M back in bad contracts, so that's already a serious negative outcome that would require maybe a 1st round pick to compensate for. So some team is going to have to want Kuzma bad enough to give us a 1st for the bad contract we eat, plus some more compensation for Kuzma himself. I don't see any team being thrilled to pay, say, two 1st round picks for the pleasure of signing Kuzma to 4-year $90M contract. It's further complicated by the fact that few over-the-cap teams in need of Kuzma have spare 1st round picks to trade.

Nothing wrong with letting him walk. I don't get why people see that (not specifically in this case but in general) as such a negative outcome. He isn't that valuable. It is frequently better letting a guy walk than overpaying to keep him or making a garbage trade to "get something back".

[doclinkin]

A Beal to Philly trade can work out real nicely salary-wise if the trade is made with the cooperation of Houston. The assumption here is that Harden is going to Houston. If Philly throws them a 2nd round pick, they'd presumably be amenable to making the Harden to Houston action a trade rather than a free agent signing. Then, Philly could roll Beal into the transaction using Harden's outgoing salary to match Beal's incoming.

So it would look something like this:

Washington trades: Beal
Washington receives: "incentive" from Philly, big fat TPE from Houston

Philly trades: Harden + "incentive" + 2027 2RP
Philly receives: Beal

Houston trades: nothing
Houston receives: Harden, PHI 2027 2RP

The only question is, what is the "incentive". Philly has nothing of value except Maxey and their 2029 FRP and 2nd round picks in 2028 and 2029. Philly wouldn't be thrilled about including Maxey, but Embiid isn't going to be very happy if Harden walks and is replaced with nothing. We would presumably offer one of Morris/Wright in return for sending Maxey. The trade could even be expanded to incorporate a Kuzma/Harris swap.

Such a trade would probably take place several days after the July Moratorium after Harden's contract price has been set by the market and after Philly has explored trade options similar to this one only with some other team and player replacing us and Beal.

We lose our top asset for what. And how does this part work: Houston wants an All-star guard. Houston trades nothing, gets all-star guard. How are they not sending anything in the deal? I say they ship us bench player Tari Eason and future considerations. Otherwise we keep Beal for a better deal, Harden likely re-signs in Philly, Houston has to chase who, Kyrie?

[nate33]

A Beal to Philly trade can work out real nicely salary-wise if the trade is made with the cooperation of Houston. The assumption here is that Harden is going to Houston. If Philly throws them a 2nd round pick, they'd presumably be amenable to making the Harden to Houston action a trade rather than a free agent signing. Then, Philly could roll Beal into the transaction using Harden's outgoing salary to match Beal's incoming.

So it would look something like this:

Washington trades: Beal
Washington receives: "incentive" from Philly, big fat TPE from Houston

Philly trades: Harden + "incentive" + 2027 2RP
Philly receives: Beal

Houston trades: nothing
Houston receives: Harden, PHI 2027 2RP

The only question is, what is the "incentive". Philly has nothing of value except Maxey and their 2029 FRP and 2nd round picks in 2028 and 2029. Philly wouldn't be thrilled about including Maxey, but Embiid isn't going to be very happy if Harden walks and is replaced with nothing. We would presumably offer one of Morris/Wright in return for sending Maxey. The trade could even be expanded to incorporate a Kuzma/Harris swap.

Such a trade would probably take place several days after the July Moratorium after Harden's contract price has been set by the market and after Philly has explored trade options similar to this one only with some other team and player replacing us and Beal.

We lose our top asset for what. And how does this part work: Houston wants an All-star guard. Houston trades nothing, gets all-star guard. How are they not sending anything in the deal? I say they ship us bench player Tari Eason and future considerations. Otherwise we keep Beal for a better deal, Harden likely re-signs in Philly, Houston has to chase who, Kyrie?

This is all based on the widely held belief that Harden is leaving Philly to resign with Houston. Houston can get him for nothing so they have no incentive to actually trade anything in this deal.

[doclinkin]

We lose our top asset for what. And how does this part work: Houston wants an All-star guard. Houston trades nothing, gets all-star guard. How are they not sending anything in the deal? I say they ship us bench player Tari Eason and future considerations. Otherwise we keep Beal for a better deal, Harden likely re-signs in Philly, Houston has to chase who, Kyrie?

This is all based on the widely held belief that Harden is leaving Philly to resign with Houston. Houston can get him for nothing so they have no incentive to actually trade anything in this deal.

Harden has an incentive to sign with Philly though:

The Sixers can offer Harden no more than $210.1 million over either a four- or five-year deal, while the Rockets can offer him a four-year, $201.7 million deal at most. Both can offer a starting salary of $46.9 million, but the Sixers can give him 8 percent annual raises, while the Rockets and other suitors can only give him 5 percent annual raises regardless of whether he signs outright with them as a free agent or joins them via a sign-and-trade

IF Philly decides they want to keep him, then the money is on their side. If they think they can replace him with Beal, then they may be willing to back off. Harden (and his agent) has incentive for this to be a real option. Sure, maybe he misses the Houston strip clubs and wants to retire into obscurity, while soaking up all the play time from the developing young players of the Rockets. Or maybe he wants to seem interested in the only other team that can offer him a real bump in salary.

Maybe Washington can tilt the deal if they can make it clear they think Beal is worth more than a salary dump and traded player exception. Philly has fewer re-build assets to offer. Houston is deep in exactly that. If Houston is trying to pivot and add veterans, they can afford to throw a little sauce our way. How about a developing asset who was still a bench player on a losing team? I want Eason. Plus a pick package.