Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing (Part 2)

[dckingsfan]

And yes, the east is very weak. But I see that changing somewhat next year.

[Dat2U]

So do you think this is more of a coaching issue or something else? I think after this Pacers series I'd like to see Wall with a different coach. The plus is that there's going to be a lot of decent ones available, George Karl interests me.

I don't know, I think it's likely a bit of both. I think you got Sam Cassell teaching John how to play Sam's game. Not sure if that works best for Wall. Then you have Wittman who prefers to play with two bigs at all times. Spacing is always an issue. It's so tough to try an run a pick & roll with Gortat and Wall when there isn't that additional shooting threat on the floor to give adequate spacing for Gortat to actually roll to the basket. Also, often in the half court, our offense is ran through Nene instead of Wall and Wall basically becomes unnoticeable. Same with pick & rolls involving Beal. Seems like there's little to no off-the-ball action for Wall in these sequences. Overall I seriously doubt that they are maximizing the opportunities to utilize the rare gifts a guy like Wall has. I can't help but think another coach could be more creative and successful offensively with a Wall/Beal backcourt going forward and help them both be more efficient.

[Dat2U]

I wonder how differently would we look at things if we had faced Indy, Miami, Toronto or Brooklyn in the first round. I'm not so sure we didn't get the absolute perfect 1st round matchup to advance because I'm finding it hard to believe we could beat any of these other teams in a 7 game series.

Wall would have had way more breathing room against Toronto and Brooklyn. Same with Gortat and Nene down low.

And then you add in how Beal has been an elite 2-guard in these playoffs, I don't think we would have lost to either of those teams. Indy and Miami, probably.

You could argue the Nets because Deron Williams can't defend anyone anymore, but I think the only reason Toronto lost in the 1st round is because of their relative playoff inexperience against the grizzled vets of the Nets. We wouldn't have that advantage against them. Toronto was clearly a better team than us over the course of the year. If George Hill is dominating Wall right now, imagine what Kyle Lowry would have done.

[DCZards]

Nice strawman. He didn't say anything about building a champion.

I can't speak for sashae but i would guess he would settle for a team that is actually good.

Actually, Brenice makes a good point. If you "burn it down," what's the plan for building a team at least as good as the current team? Not sure why that's a "strawman," which is probably the most misused word on this board.

That isn't what Brenice said. He said "now do the hard part, build a champion". Feel free to point out where sashae said anything about building a champion.

Ok...so you're taking issue with term "build a champion." Then let's put it this way, "now do the hard part, build a contender." Because if you're going to "burn down" a playoff team you better have a short-term plan for building a better one.

[tontoz]

Ok...so you're taking issue with term "build a champion." Then let's put it this way, "now do the hard part, build a contender." Because if you're going to "burn down" a playoff team you better have a short-term plan for building a better one.

Which is exactly the mindset that got us in the current position, short term thinking. Now we have the option of spending big money to resign our guys and stay average, or let them go and most likely take a step or three back. That is why EG needs to go. His repeated mistakes has put us in a position where there is very little chance to become a contender.

A new GM, who feels no loyalty to the current players, could come in and clear capspace to make a run at a real star in a year or two. That is probably what it will take to become a contender. There is no way a guy like EG will clear enough capspace for a top FA. He has a compulsion to spend money as quickly as possible.

[Brenice]

Nice strawman. He didn't say anything about building a champion.

I can't speak for sashae but i would guess he would settle for a team that is actually good.

Actually, Brenice makes a good point. If you "burn it down," what's the plan for building a team at least as good as the current team? Not sure why that's a "strawman," which is probably the most misused word on this board.

That isn't what Brenice said. He said "now do the hard part, build a champion". Feel free to point out where sashae said anything about building a champion.

But isn't a championship what everybody wants? We made the second round of the playoffs. That qualifies as a good, but inexperienced team. Individually, some players have playoff experience, but not collectively. The goal for this season was not a championship. The real goal was for Wall and Beal to get playoff experience. They got that.

As for burning it down. Every team is different, year to year. Miami, San Antonio, they are different. Does that qualify as "burning it down"? NO. Burning it down is getting rid of everybody. Just like I'm sure he doesn't mean burning the whole Wizard team down, you should know that although the goal is "building a champion", I meant and want a good team, better than what you are burning down.

If you gonna complain, stop taking the easy way out. The Wizards are a good team, right now. Build the champion.

[Illmatic12]

I wonder how differently would we look at things if we had faced Indy, Miami, Toronto or Brooklyn in the first round. I'm not so sure we didn't get the absolute perfect 1st round matchup to advance because I'm finding it hard to believe we could beat any of these other teams in a 7 game series.

Wall would have had way more breathing room against Toronto and Brooklyn. Same with Gortat and Nene down low.

And then you add in how Beal has been an elite 2-guard in these playoffs, I don't think we would have lost to either of those teams. Indy and Miami, probably.

You could argue the Nets because Deron Williams can't defend anyone anymore, but I think the only reason Toronto lost in the 1st round is because of their relative playoff inexperience against the grizzled vets of the Nets. We wouldn't have that advantage against them. Toronto was clearly a better team than us over the course of the year. If George Hill is dominating Wall right now, imagine what Kyle Lowry would have done.

Beal was terrible in all our games against the Raptors. If he plays like he's been playing in the postseason, I don't think we would lose.

And please clarify that last line. Are you saying George Hill is better than Wall? Or you're assuming that Wall would definitely play below his potential in a hypothetical Washington-Toronto series, because he's playing below his potential against the Pacers?

[Dat2U]

Actually, Brenice makes a good point. If you "burn it down," what's the plan for building a team at least as good as the current team? Not sure why that's a "strawman," which is probably the most misused word on this board.

That isn't what Brenice said. He said "now do the hard part, build a champion". Feel free to point out where sashae said anything about building a champion.

Ok...so you're taking issue with term "build a champion." Then let's put it this way, "now do the hard part, build a contender." Because if you're going to "burn down" a playoff team you better have a short-term plan for building a better one.

Is it really that hard? Were in a conference of 15 teams. 8 of them make the playoffs every year. Building a playoff team can simply mean being average.

[bealwithit]

That isn't what Brenice said. He said "now do the hard part, build a champion". Feel free to point out where sashae said anything about building a champion.

Ok...so you're taking issue with term "build a champion." Then let's put it this way, "now do the hard part, build a contender." Because if you're going to "burn down" a playoff team you better have a short-term plan for building a better one.

Is it really that hard? Were in a conference of 15 teams. 8 of them make the playoffs every year. Building a playoff team can simply mean being average.

It's not hard at all. Only reason we missed the playoffs with Wall and Beal before is because of injuries, like Wall's last year and just having an exceptionally bad roster around them, this moreso applying to Wall.

[Dat2U]

Wall would have had way more breathing room against Toronto and Brooklyn. Same with Gortat and Nene down low.

And then you add in how Beal has been an elite 2-guard in these playoffs, I don't think we would have lost to either of those teams. Indy and Miami, probably.

You could argue the Nets because Deron Williams can't defend anyone anymore, but I think the only reason Toronto lost in the 1st round is because of their relative playoff inexperience against the grizzled vets of the Nets. We wouldn't have that advantage against them. Toronto was clearly a better team than us over the course of the year. If George Hill is dominating Wall right now, imagine what Kyle Lowry would have done.

Beal was terrible in all our games against the Raptors. If he plays like he's been playing in the postseason, I don't think we would lose.

And please clarify that last line. Are you saying George Hill is better than Wall? Or you're assuming that Wall would definitely play below his potential in a hypothetical Washington-Toronto series, because he's playing below his potential against the Pacers?

I got criticized for this a couple of months back but at the time I said they have different roles but in their respective roles, George Hill has consistently outplayed John Wall. At the time I also said I'd take John Wall in a heartbeat over Hill but the facts were that Hill does things far more efficiently and effectively than Wall.

Now seeing Hill thoroughly outplay Wall all series, I have to say... George Hill is better than John Wall right now. To be honest, this shouldn't be without question now. I'd be lying to my own eyes if I said Wall was the better player. If had to rank guards in the East, I'd put Lowry & Hill over Wall.

[NbdyBeatsTheWiz]

We're now 0-3 since Mike Wise's "Ernie Grunsfeld Appreciation Article" taking on EG's doubters.
Timing couldn't have been more fitting.

[tontoz]

But isn't a championship what everybody wants?

Again, that isn't what he said. You put words in his mouth and then argued against them. That is the definition of a strawman arguement. You made up a strawman so you could pretend like you are making sense.

We made the 2nd round as much because of luck as skill. We missed facing the Heat in the first round by a game. Then we faced a Bulls team who was missing their two best scorers from their opening day roster. And let's not forget that the Wizards wouldn't come close to making the playoffs in the west.

The Wizards are a good team, right now

No they aren't. They are an average team in a very weak conference. That's all

[Jay81]

next year playoff seedings
1. Miami
2. Indiana
3. Chicago with Rose back and 2 first round picks
4. Brooklyn with Lopez back
5. Raptors
6. Hawks with Horford back
7. BobCats

there is no guaratee that we will even make the playoffs but these are teams that i think will be better than us next year

[bealwithit]

next year playoff seedings
1. Miami
2. Indiana
3. Chicago with Rose back and 2 first round picks
4. Brooklyn with Lopez back
5. Raptors
6. Hawks with Horford back
7. BobCats

there is no guaratee that we will even make the playoffs but these are teams that i think will be better than us next year

The Cats are debatable but I definitely agree that we're going to take a step back next year just because the East should be a lot better than it was this year, which was pathetic. Only way to avoid taking that step back is if we totally knock this offseason out of the park, I just don't think that happens unless some big changes are made.

[Brenice]

But isn't a championship what everybody wants?

Again, that isn't what he said. You put words in his mouth and then argued against them. That is the definition of a strawman arguement. You made up a strawman so you could pretend like you are making sense.

We made the 2nd round as much because of luck as skill. We missed facing the Heat in the first round by a game. Then we faced a Bulls team who was missing their two best scorers from their opening day roster. And let's not forget that the Wizards wouldn't come close to making the playoffs in the west.

The Wizards are a good team, right now

No they aren't. They are an average team in a very weak conference. That's all

Are you assuming Derrick Rose is MVP level Derrick Rose? Chicago was a team that had nothing to do with Derrick Rose. You don't know if Chicago was better or worse with Rose. Nobody gave the Wizards an out when Gilbert got hurt and Cleveland kept getting lucky to play the Wizards in the playoffs. Better yet, did you give Ernie a pass that first year when Gil and Butler got hurt? LeBron sure got a lot of credit for that.

As for making the playoffs in the West. How do you know they wouldn't have played better in the western conference? I saw a team that played better against the better teams. Should have beaten OKC twice. Split with Portland. Factor in Nene being out and Gortat joining the Wizards late in the pre-season but yet you wonder why they gelled late and they won 44 games.

The Wizards are a team that is better than it's record. A good team.

[sashae]

Actually, Brenice makes a good point. If you "burn it down," what's the plan for building a team at least as good as the current team? Not sure why that's a "strawman," which is probably the most misused word on this board.

That isn't what Brenice said. He said "now do the hard part, build a champion". Feel free to point out where sashae said anything about building a champion.

Ok...so you're taking issue with term "build a champion." Then let's put it this way, "now do the hard part, build a contender." Because if you're going to "burn down" a playoff team you better have a short-term plan for building a better one.

My argument is, building on the "foundation" we have right now on this squad -- ie, resigning a 30 year old Gortat for his initial declining years at $12+/yr and talented journeyman Ariza at $8-9m/year for 4 years is NOT going to put this team into a position to win a championship.

The team has two fantastic assets in Wall and Beal, and... that's about it. The last few years of mismanagement have left the cupboard bare in terms of growth assets -- could Porter or Rice Jr. turn out to be something positive? Certainly, but neither has shown even an inkling of being positive contributors. Investing in Gortat and Ariza at this point at their full pricing is a dubious strategy, especially considering the dearth of additional talent on the roster.

The bench is OLD and AWFUL for the most part -- God bless 'em, but the truth is that Miller, Harrington, Gooden, and even warrior Nene are a lot closer to the ends of their careers rather than the beginning. You cannot build a contending team out of a large group of injury-prone and aged players -- it just doesn't work that way.

I could make a counterargument that Gortat and Ariza are likely both tradable in the future, as long as they remain productive -- Gortat for his age has not played that many minutes and has proven over time to be durable, Ariza is an always-desirable 3-and-D guy, and you don't want to backslide out of the playoffs again next year (though I find that likely anyway without some additional roster improvements.) All that being said, though, what is the upside of this team? Bring everyone back and /maybe/ win in the first round again if you luck out and face a weak and flawed team like the Bulls next year? Or maybe (maybe!) burn the whole goddamn thing down and try to start something anew -- sign and trade Gortat and/or Ariza for a big that can provide more floor spacing (something the team /sorely/ lacks outside of the occasionally motivated Nene), who knows -- but the route the team is on NOW is not one that leads to a championship.

If we're satisfied with the team existing in early-2000s Bucks/late '00s Hawks-land, then fine. I'd prefer to think the team should be shooting for a championship, not more first-round playoff win confetti.

[tontoz]

Are you assuming Derrick Rose is MVP level Derrick Rose? Chicago was a team that had nothing to do with Derrick Rose. You don't know if Chicago was better or worse with Rose. Nobody gave the Wizards an out when Gilbert got hurt and Cleveland kept getting lucky to play the Wizards in the playoffs. Better yet, did you give Ernie a pass that first year when Gil and Butler got hurt? LeBron sure got a lot of credit for that.

As for making the playoffs in the West. How do you know they wouldn't have played better in the western conference? I saw a team that played better against the better teams. Should have beaten OKC twice. Split with Portland. Factor in Nene being out and Gortat joining the Wizards late in the pre-season but yet you wonder why they gelled late and they won 44 games.

The Wizards are a team that is better than it's record. A good team.

I am not assuming Rose would be MVP level but i am assuming he would be an upgrade over Hinrich, which wouldn't be hard. And they also traded away Deng for nothing.

They won 48 games because they are a quality organization. When Wall was out what happened to us? We went into the toilet. If Wall had missed time this season we would have been in the toilet AGAIN.

The Wizards aren't even remotely better than their record. You act like the Wizards are the only team that had injuries. If anything the Wizards had fewer injuries than most teams. Nobody had a season ending injury. They didn't progress as the season went on and they had an easy schedule. Put them in the west and they have a losing record. In fact they did have a losing record against the west this year.

The Suns missed the playoffs but they are better than the Wizards. By a lot.

[nate33]

next year playoff seedings
1. Miami
2. Indiana
3. Chicago with Rose back and 2 first round picks
4. Brooklyn with Lopez back
5. Raptors
6. Hawks with Horford back
7. BobCats

there is no guarantee that we will even make the playoffs but these are teams that i think will be better than us next year

I think not.

3. Chicago - Rose is probably no longer an impact player, 1st round picks rarely help in their rookie year, and I think that team is going to stop listening to Thibs. The X factor is Carmelo. If they get him, then, yes they will be above us.

4. Brooklyn gets Lopez back but Garnett is pretty much done, and I question how much Pierce has in the tank with him playing so much PF. That team still won't defend. I don't think they'll be much better than a 6-8 seed.

5. Raptors - If they keep Lowry, should be about as good as us if we keep Ariza and Gortat.

6. Hawks - Should be better with Horford, probably better than us.

7. Bobcats - I'm still not buying it. They did it with smoke and mirrors. I think teams will figure out their defensive scheme and they're still a team that can't shoot from the perimeter.

I think it'll go like this:
Miami
Indy
Atlanta
Toronto
Washington
Chicago*
Brooklyn
Charlotte

* If Chicago gets Melo, they'll vault to 3rd.

[Illmatic12]

You could argue the Nets because Deron Williams can't defend anyone anymore, but I think the only reason Toronto lost in the 1st round is because of their relative playoff inexperience against the grizzled vets of the Nets. We wouldn't have that advantage against them. Toronto was clearly a better team than us over the course of the year. If George Hill is dominating Wall right now, imagine what Kyle Lowry would have done.

Beal was terrible in all our games against the Raptors. If he plays like he's been playing in the postseason, I don't think we would lose.

And please clarify that last line. Are you saying George Hill is better than Wall? Or you're assuming that Wall would definitely play below his potential in a hypothetical Washington-Toronto series, because he's playing below his potential against the Pacers?

I got criticized for this a couple of months back but at the time I said they have different roles but in their respective roles, George Hill has consistently outplayed John Wall. At the time I also said I'd take John Wall in a heartbeat over Hill but the facts were that Hill does things far more efficiently and effectively than Wall.

Now seeing Hill thoroughly outplay Wall all series, I have to say... George Hill is better than John Wall right now. To be honest, this shouldn't be without question now. I'd be lying to my own eyes if I said Wall was the better player. If had to rank guards in the East, I'd put Lowry & Hill over Wall.

Okay.

I would love to get into some of you guys' heads.

[DCZards]

My argument is, building on the "foundation" we have right now on this squad -- ie, resigning a 30 year old Gortat for his initial declining years at $12+/yr and talented journeyman Ariza at $8-9m/year for 4 years is NOT going to put this team into a position to win a championship.

The team has two fantastic assets in Wall and Beal, and... that's about it. The last few years of mismanagement have left the cupboard bare in terms of growth assets -- could Porter or Rice Jr. turn out to be something positive? Certainly, but neither has shown even an inkling of being positive contributors. Investing in Gortat and Ariza at this point at their full pricing is a dubious strategy, especially considering the dearth of additional talent on the roster.

The bench is OLD and AWFUL for the most part -- God bless 'em, but the truth is that Miller, Harrington, Gooden, and even warrior Nene are a lot closer to the ends of their careers rather than the beginning. You cannot build a contending team out of a large group of injury-prone and aged players -- it just doesn't work that way.

I could make a counterargument that Gortat and Ariza are likely both tradable in the future, as long as they remain productive -- Gortat for his age has not played that many minutes and has proven over time to be durable, Ariza is an always-desirable 3-and-D guy, and you don't want to backslide out of the playoffs again next year (though I find that likely anyway without some additional roster improvements.) All that being said, though, what is the upside of this team? Bring everyone back and /maybe/ win in the first round again if you luck out and face a weak and flawed team like the Bulls next year? Or maybe (maybe!) burn the whole goddamn thing down and try to start something anew -- sign and trade Gortat and/or Ariza for a big that can provide more floor spacing (something the team /sorely/ lacks outside of the occasionally motivated Nene), who knows -- but the route the team is on NOW is not one that leads to a championship.

If we're satisfied with the team existing in early-2000s Bucks/late '00s Hawks-land, then fine. I'd prefer to think the team should be shooting for a championship, not more first-round playoff win confetti.

sashae, I get what you don't like about the idea of resigning Gortat and Ariza..and I agree that if they are resigned that both might be good trade bait. But what I have not heard from you is the alternative to resigning Gortat and/or Ariza. What do the Zards have to do to be a consistent playoff team and a contender, especially if you let both Ariza and Gortat walk?

While Tontoz and others might rail against so-called "short-term thinking," the reality is that neither Ted nor the Zards fans base (or Wall and Beal for that matter) are going to buy into "long-term thinking" that results in the Zards taking a step back and not making the playoffs the next 2-3 years. That train has left the station...the Zards will want and expect to at least be in the playoffs...and hopefully contending for a championship in the future.

Of course, that championship part will likely have to wait until KD comes home. But meanwhile it will be important that the Zards continue to get better and not worse, which I fear will happen with your "burn it down" strategy.