Discussing Other Teams' Moves - Part 7

[tontoz]

Small sample obviously but somehow Cam Reddish has a negative PER.

He clearly wasn't good at Duke. Not a good pick at 10.

[Ruzious]

Small sample obviously but somehow Cam Reddish has a negative PER.

He clearly wasn't good at Duke. Not a good pick at 10.

Several of the local media guys on the MASN network went on record in a pre-draft show I saw hoping the Wiz pick Reddish. That's why I was relieved when the Wiz picked Rui - even though I was hoping they'd trade down or pick Doumbouya.

Now that John Collins is suspended for 25 games, it's a big opportunity for Bruno Fernando - who should not have lasted till the 2nd round - and the Hawks' other ex-Terp center Alex Len.

[tontoz]

Small sample obviously but somehow Cam Reddish has a negative PER.

He clearly wasn't good at Duke. Not a good pick at 10.

Several of the local media guys on the MASN network went on record in a pre-draft show I saw hoping the Wiz pick Reddish. That's why I was relieved when the Wiz picked Rui - even though I was hoping they'd trade down or pick Doumbouya.

Now that John Collins is suspended for 25 games, it's a big opportunity for Bruno Fernando - who should not have lasted till the 2nd round - and the Hawks' other ex-Terp center Alex Len.

I think it is a good spot for Fernando. He measured and tested well at the combine, 9'2 standing reach with good strength and speed. He could be a steal for them.

He is actually shooting 3s already.

[Ruzious]

Memphis' picks of Ja Morant and Brandon Clarke are looking real good - both with PER's just over 20 with high scoring efficiency. Clarke getting his 3.2 blocks and 1.6 steals per 36 minutes. Ja showing he can score on anyone on any level. But JJJ has declined so far - after a slightly disappointing rookie year. I thought he was destined for stardom.

[payitforward]

Among rookies who've played over 75 minutes, Brandon Clarke has been the best so far -- by a lot not a little. Pretty much what I expected to see. In fact, he's already comfortably in the top 8 PFs in the league (based on performance so far).

Of course, it's a small sample size -- no big-time conclusions to draw... yet!

Edit: this would not be a good moment to compare Clarke & Rui, as Rui has just come off a terrible game. Because the sample size is still so small, his overall numbers took a huge hit.

[payitforward]

Small sample obviously but somehow Cam Reddish has a negative PER.

He clearly wasn't good at Duke. Not a good pick at 10.

Several of the local media guys on the MASN network went on record in a pre-draft show I saw hoping the Wiz pick Reddish. That's why I was relieved when the Wiz picked Rui - even though I was hoping they'd trade down or pick Doumbouya.

Now that John Collins is suspended for 25 games, it's a big opportunity for Bruno Fernando - who should not have lasted till the 2nd round - and the Hawks' other ex-Terp center Alex Len.

I think it is a good spot for Fernando. He measured and tested well at the combine, 9'2 standing reach with good strength and speed. He could be a steal for them.

He is actually shooting 3s already.

Fernando is playing very very well. An even bigger steal is Eric Paschall. These guys look like the biggest steals in the draft -- after Brandon Clarke, that is.

Again, it's small sample sizes on all these guys. Which means there could be big changes.

You can take Admiral's numbers as an example of how a small sample size can distort the view. They look great -- & why not? If you combine low usage, basically making almost every shot you take, & never turning the ball over, you get a pattern of numbers that is overall just tremendous!

Only problem is... it's clearly unsustainable: i.e. per 40 minutes the pattern of numbers doesn't resemble any player's numbers... ever.

[payitforward]

God, Atlanta had a terrible draft! DeAndre Hunter hasn't looked good, Reddish has been awful. A good thing they picked Fernando!!

[Ruzious]

God, Atlanta had a terrible draft! DeAndre Hunter hasn't looked good, Reddish has been awful. A good thing they picked Fernando!!

Reddish's start was so bad that even a 3 for 3 from 3 game the other night hasn't saved him from having putrid stats. I do think that Hunter will be just fine, but what doubles down on making the Reddish pick so awful was - he plays the same position that Hunter does. If you play them together, one has to play out of position. I guess you can play Hunter at the 4, but he average only about 5 rebounds a game at UVA - granted they played a slow pace, but still - he's a 3. Reddish does have very good defensive potential, but so does Jemerrio Jones - who went undrafted and is in the G League. I'm not sure Reddish is a better prospect than Jones. Jones would probably out-rebound Reddish by a 3 to 1 ratio.

[tontoz]

I can't remember a rookie getting over 20 minutes a game and struggling this badly. Granted it is early but Reddish has a TS of 34.5%.

[payitforward]

God, Atlanta had a terrible draft! DeAndre Hunter hasn't looked good, Reddish has been awful. A good thing they picked Fernando!!

Reddish's start was so bad that even a 3 for 3 from 3 game the other night hasn't saved him from having putrid stats. I do think that Hunter will be just fine, but what doubles down on making the Reddish pick so awful was - he plays the same position that Hunter does. If you play them together, one has to play out of position. I guess you can play Hunter at the 4, but he average only about 5 rebounds a game at UVA - granted they played a slow pace, but still - he's a 3. Reddish does have very good defensive potential, but so does Jemerrio Jones - who went undrafted and is in the G League. I'm not sure Reddish is a better prospect than Jones. Jones would probably out-rebound Reddish by a 3 to 1 ratio.

We could use his rebounding & defense!! I still don't understand why they let him go.

[payitforward]

Hey, here's something that might be interesting. It's the home opener between the Spurs & Rockets G League teams. A lot of players we talked about from this year's draft looked very good for the Spurs team -- Samanic, Keldon Johnson & Quinndary Weatherspoon, especially KJ. SAS is a very deep team, so it's no surprise that their rookies start out in the G League.

For the Vipers, keep an eye on Gary Clark, whom a few of us very much wanted the Wizards to pick up when he went undrafted. He's on the Rockets roster but starting the season by getting minutes in the G League.

Keep an eye on Keldon Johnson in particular: he looked unbelievable. Started at the 3 & went 11-13 (one of his 2 misses was a desperation last second shot as the clock expired) & grabbed 8 boards including 3 on the offensive end. He's going to have an outstanding NBA career.

Also worth paying attention to is Chimezie Metu, whom the Spurs would up with out of 2018's R2, & Dedric Lawson who went undrafted this year -- we talked quite a lot about him in May-June.

Watch on YouTube

[Ruzious]

The Lakers got 2 of the most criticized players of the decade playing center. Last night, McGee and Howard combined for exactly 48 minutes, combined for 33 points, 25 rebounds, 3 steals, 4 blocks, 5 assists and 5 to's, 13 of 19 from the field and 7 of 8 from the line. The Lakers are now championship contenders - crushed the Warriors - who are making a dramatic fall this season - with one of the greatest ever backcourts out. I guess they'll be re-loading for next season with a high pick and hopefully everyone healthy. Or will they look to trade that pick?

[I_Like_Dirt]

There's a lot of time left yet, but the Clippers really don't look all that good without Kawhi right now. They aren't like the Raptors who won far more often than not when Kawhi would sit. They were a bit better than .500 last season and I think they probably got a little worse in the SGA+Gallo for Paul George exchange. That recipe could change in the playoffs but I'm thinking it's mostly just going to be Kawhi that steps up more. Losing to the Pelicans with Paul George back? I guess Beverley and Shamet are also significant losses for them but the Pelicans were without Zion and Ingram (and Okafor). Lou Williams dropped 31 points on 11/20 shooting and 8/10 from the line, had 9 assists and only 2 TOs and was somehow -20 in a 5 point loss. He's so good offensively and gives it all back at this stage of his career.

[nate33]

The Lakers got 2 of the most criticized players of the decade playing center. Last night, McGee and Howard combined for exactly 48 minutes, combined for 33 points, 25 rebounds, 3 steals, 4 blocks, 5 assists and 5 to's, 13 of 19 from the field and 7 of 8 from the line. The Lakers are now championship contenders - crushed the Warriors - who are making a dramatic fall this season - with one of the greatest ever backcourts out. I guess they'll be re-loading for next season with a high pick and hopefully everyone healthy. Or will they look to trade that pick?

I think the Warriors will trade that pick. Curry and Draymond only have 2 or so peak years left. They can't afford to wait around and develop a draft pick.

The big problem is that they don't have much salary ballast to make a trade. They'll have to trade for a good player still on his rookie deal, or package the pick with Russell and hopefully get two good players.

[nate33]

There's a lot of time left yet, but the Clippers really don't look all that good without Kawhi right now. They aren't like the Raptors who won far more often than not when Kawhi would sit. They were a bit better than .500 last season and I think they probably got a little worse in the SGA+Gallo for Paul George exchange. That recipe could change in the playoffs but I'm thinking it's mostly just going to be Kawhi that steps up more. Losing to the Pelicans with Paul George back? I guess Beverley and Shamet are also significant losses for them but the Pelicans were without Zion and Ingram (and Okafor). Lou Williams dropped 31 points on 11/20 shooting and 8/10 from the line, had 9 assists and only 2 TOs and was somehow -20 in a 5 point loss. He's so good offensively and gives it all back at this stage of his career.

That Clippers team is deep, but it's deep with role players. Every team would love to have guys like Beverley, Shamet, Harkless, Zubac and Green, but those guys are only useful if put alongside alpha scorers. With Kawhi out and George just getting his rhythm back, they're going to struggle a little bit. Lou Williams is an alpha scorer, but he should only play 25 minutes a night, mostly with the 2nd unit, because of his defensive issues. When he plays with the starters for long, he gets exploited.

Overall, I still really love the team when healthy.

Another issue is that Doc Rivers isn't really an offensive innovator. He's a bit like Randy Wittman in that regard. He doesn't really generate a lot of "system points" that can make things easy in the regular season. He's more of an old school guy who simply tries to attack the best mismatch on the floor. Ultimately, that coaching weakness won't matter much in the playoffs when teams figure out how to eliminate "system points" anyhow.

[I_Like_Dirt]

That Clippers team is deep, but it's deep with role players. Every team would love to have guys like Beverley, Shamet, Harkless, Zubac and Green, but those guys are only useful if put alongside alpha scorers. With Kawhi out and George just getting his rhythm back, they're going to struggle a little bit. Lou Williams is an alpha scorer, but he should only play 25 minutes a night, mostly with the 2nd unit, because of his defensive issues. When he plays with the starters for long, he gets exploited.

Overall, I still really love the team when healthy.

Another issue is that Doc Rivers isn't really an offensive innovator. He's a bit like Randy Wittman in that regard. He doesn't really generate a lot of "system points" that can make things easy in the regular season. He's more of an old school guy who simply tries to attack the best mismatch on the floor. Ultimately, that coaching weakness won't matter much in the playoffs when teams figure out how to eliminate "system points" anyhow.

Don't get me wrong. I still really like them when healthy, too. I'm starting to question whether or not they're actually as good as the Raptors were last season, though, and if they aren't, they're definitely more back in the pack with everybody else which does sort of feel right. They have as much of a chance as anybody but I think the field is pretty open at this point amongst about 10 teams or so.

[gtn130]

Among rookies who've played over 75 minutes, Brandon Clarke has been the best so far -- by a lot not a little. Pretty much what I expected to see. In fact, he's already comfortably in the top 8 PFs in the league (based on performance so far).

Of course, it's a small sample size -- no big-time conclusions to draw... yet!

Edit: this would not be a good moment to compare Clarke & Rui, as Rui has just come off a terrible game. Because the sample size is still so small, his overall numbers took a huge hit.

Clarke is good, but he's also 23. He's at a different stage of the growth curve compared to most rookies.

[gtn130]

Trae Young update:

He's been incredible on offense as we all know. Defense is still a problem.

OffRTG: 109.1
DefRTG: 112.2
NetRTG: -3.1

When Trae is off the court:

OffRTG: 93.0
DefRTG: 99.1
NetRTG: -6.0

Isaiah Thomas still appears to be a pretty good comp in terms of output.

[tontoz]

Trae Young update:

He's been incredible on offense as we all know. Defense is still a problem.

OffRTG: 109.1
DefRTG: 112.2
NetRTG: -3.1

When Trae is off the court:

OffRTG: 93.0
DefRTG: 99.1
NetRTG: -6.0

Isaiah Thomas still appears to be a pretty good comp in terms of output.

I agree that Trae has issues on defense but DRTG isn't the way to show it. DRTG works for teams but for players it is a very different stat. Just google the formula. It is a mess.

[daoneandonly]

Trae Young update:

He's been incredible on offense as we all know. Defense is still a problem.

OffRTG: 109.1
DefRTG: 112.2
NetRTG: -3.1

When Trae is off the court:

OffRTG: 93.0
DefRTG: 99.1
NetRTG: -6.0

Isaiah Thomas still appears to be a pretty good comp in terms of output.

It will be interesting to see how the Luka for Trae & Reddish trade ultimately pans out