Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX

[Silvie Lysandra]

Nvm, the one I tried on ESPN was without TJ coming back. Which is fine, it frees up more minutes for Troy.

Okay, last question. Why does Indy do this trade again?

They probably don't, as I point out, its more if they decide that Turner/Sabonis just can't work (because they're both centers) so they try to get decent value for Turner's contract.

[dckingsfan]

Nvm, the one I tried on ESPN was without TJ coming back. Which is fine, it frees up more minutes for Troy.

Rotation would be something like:

PG: Westbrook/Neto/Brown/Winston
SG: Beal/Brown
SF: Bonga/Avija/Brown
PF: Bertrans/Bonga/Bryant/Gill
C: Turner/Bryant/Lopez

I added Neto, I think you forgot him.

And I think there is zero chance to have Bryant at PF?

[Silvie Lysandra]

Yeah I did forget Neto, my mistake.

Also I figured Bryant could get some spot minutes at PF but I guess not. Basically I was thinking something like 26 minutes to Turner 22 minutes to Bryant.

[prime1time]

Yeah I did forget Neto, my mistake.

Also I figured Bryant could get some spot minutes at PF but I guess not. Basically I was thinking something like 26 minutes to Turner 22 minutes to Bryant.

Both guys are a liability on switches, so when teams go small at the end of games, they won't be on the floor. Better off drafting a Bam type next draft imo.

[payitforward]

Since we were talking about Rui and Myles Turner in separate threads, why not do this:

Wizards trade:

Hachimura
Smith
Robinson
Wagner
Pasecniks



Pacers trade
Turner
TJ McConnell

I feel like Indy says no unless we either throw in Bryant or a 1st though. But Turner would be an amazing fit for our team - having Westbrook and Brown really dilutes the impact of Turner's poor rebounding.

Well, that's a trade I'd be happy to do! Suppose we just call Rui & Turner about equal. The rest of the trade brings us an outstanding back up PG (much better than Ish) & moves 3 players with zero to very very little value.

It's also a very imaginative idea! Way to go, Chaos Revenant!

[Silvie Lysandra]

Again I think we have to throw in some kind of sweetener for them to take it that I'd strongly prefer not to. But I think we're definitely a playoff team this year, barring an utterly catastrophic collapse in RW's production *and* no improvement from last year to this year from the young guys, or a catastrophic issue with fit between RW and Beal. So I think I at least consider the lottery protected first to make it happen. Being "pretty good" for the next couple years while our young players develop isn't so bad - we're not getting through the Bucks or Heat in the next few years no matter what we do.

[nate33]

Since we were talking about Rui and Myles Turner in separate threads, why not do this:

Wizards trade:

Hachimura
Smith
Robinson
Wagner
Pasecniks



Pacers trade
Turner
TJ McConnell

I feel like Indy says no unless we either throw in Bryant or a 1st though. But Turner would be an amazing fit for our team - having Westbrook and Brown really dilutes the impact of Turner's poor rebounding.

Well, that's a trade I'd be happy to do! Suppose we just call Rui & Turner about equal. The rest of the trade brings us an outstanding back up PG (much better than Ish) & moves 3 players with zero to very very little value.

It's also a very imaginative idea! Way to go, Chaos Revenant!

This is a bad idea for salary reasons.

If this team is going to spend $78M on it's starting backcourt next year, it doesn't have the luxury of spending a combined $27M at the center position while also spending $16M on Bertans. Westbrook, Beal, Bertans, Turner and Bryant alone will cost $122M next year. Avdija is $4.7M. Brown is $5.1M. Our pick will be $3M or so. That puts us at $135M, $1M shy of the luxtax threshold. We still need 6 more players who will cost a minimum of $1M (if they're rookie vet minimum guys like Childs) or as much as $1.8M if they're 3rd-year or more vets on minimum salary contracts (guys like Neto). If Bonga is a guy we choose to keep, he'll cost even more than that.

And it only gets worse the following year when Brown is up for a new contract and Beal gets his max extension.

The bottom line is that we are basically capped out as long as we have Westbrook. We are going to have to hope that Bryant and our rookie contract guys get the job done. We won't be adding any Myles Turner-caliber veterans making $15-20M. The one veteran we could afford was Bertans.

[Silvie Lysandra]

So let me add my interpretation of the context, because the financials do indeed look bad:

We're subject to a lot of these same constraints without the trade.

Yes, not being able to write off Ish's 6 million next year hurts in terms of filling out the roster and staying under the tax. But Rui is locked in for the next 3 years. Robinson and Paze and Wagner over the next 2. The tax will hurt in year 3, but it was likely to hurt either way. The difference is that you have a somewhat worse financial position, especially if you resign Bonga, BUT you also have a better chance at being a contender through adding a high impact interior defender who can also stretch the floor, on a team featuring a guy that really really benefits from spacing. Does this get us out of the East? Probably not, nobody's beating the Bucks and probably not the Heat. Could it get us past the Celtics? *Maybe*. Is beating the Celtics and losing to the Bucks in 6 games worth paying an extra 20-25m in tax over the life of Turner's deal? Depends on how much you care about Ted's money.

Also there's a lot of value in being a mid tier, 2nd round exit team hoping for a lucky break. Just ask the Toronto Raptors.

[nate33]

So let me add my interpretation of the context, because the financials do indeed look bad:

We're subject to a lot of these same constraints without the trade.

Yes, not being able to write off Ish's 6 million next year hurts in terms of filling out the roster and staying under the tax. But Rui is locked in for the next 3 years. Robinson and Paze and Wagner over the next 2. The tax will hurt in year 3, but it was likely to hurt either way.

Wrong. Smith, Robinson and Wagner are all expiring contracts or team options. Hachimura's contract is the only outgoing 2021 salary obligation (about $5M) in the trade, but you are bringing back $18M with Turner.

[prime1time]

Rui's not going anywhere unless it's for a star.

[gambitx777]

Do we think the wizards might fall into the one more piece hype and do something stupid and trade for Paul george or D.D. or aldridge,

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[Ruzious]

Yeah I did forget Neto, my mistake.

Also I figured Bryant could get some spot minutes at PF but I guess not. Basically I was thinking something like 26 minutes to Turner 22 minutes to Bryant.

Both guys are a liability on switches, so when teams go small at the end of games, they won't be on the floor. Better off drafting a Bam type next draft imo.

Not an Anthony Davis type? Or a Lebron type?

[nate33]

Do we think the wizards might fall into the one more piece hype and do something stupid and trade for Paul george or D.D. or aldridge,

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I don't. Sheppard hasn't made a trade yet that sacrificed the future for now, unless you count the Wall trade. (And I don't really count the Wall trade. That was made for off court reasons.)

[Ruzious]

Jaren Jackson Jr is as close as we can get to an Anthony Davis type. I think he might be available. Centers Jonas V and Dieng are Memphis' 2 highest paid players. Brandon Clarke was their excellent rookie PF. They signed Jontay Porter, drafted Xavier Tillman, and added Killian Tillie. Interesting... Clarke and Tillie were teammates at Gonzaga with... Rui. Put the band back together?

Rui and TBJ for JJJ? Rui and Clarke have already proven they can play very well together in college, and some (Beal) say Rui's natural position is SF. And TBJ can play SF or guard - filling Memphis' needs. JJJ doesn't rebound well - if he did, no chance they'd trade him, but he's a gifted defender who made 39% of his 3's and just turned 21. He has the versatility to play either PF or C - assuming he adds muscle to a frame that should be able to add it. Rui and TBJ is a high price to pay, but JJJ is worth it and would be a near perfect fit for the Wiz - though he would benefit from getting physically stronger.

[queridiculo]

Come on, the Grizzlies aren't going to move Jaren Jackson Jr. because they have Dieng and JV on the roster

Dieng is an expiring, and JV expires next season.

Tillman will be groomed as backup to JJ.

[nate33]

When we are discussing trades, it's important to recognized the salary implications. It's easy to look at the large expiring contracts on our roster (like Lopez and Ish) and use them to make trades work, but the truth is our luxtax flexibility going forward is quite limited. Trading those expiring contracts for future salary commitments may not be an option. Here's the breakdown:

Committed salary in 2021:
Westbrook - $44.2
Beal - $34.5
Bertans - $16.0
Bryant - $8.7
Brown - $5.2*
Hachimura - $4.9
Avidja - $4.7
TOTAL - $117.2

Team options in 2021:
Robinson - $5.3M
Wagner - $3.9M

Salary cap - $112.4
Luxury tax - $136.6

So after accounting for the 7 players under contract, we have only $19M in luxtax room. Add in a 1st round pick at, say, $3M and it's $16M in luxtax room. 6 more roster spots gets us down to maybe $8M in luxtax room. If we retain Bonga and/or Wagner, that luxtax room drops further.

I wouldn't be surprised if Leonsis was willing to pay the luxtax though. He won't go deep into the luxtax like Golden State, but he might go 4 or 5 million into the tax. The following year, the team will have a big luxtax payment assuming Beal is resigned and Brown Jr. is retained, but they get relief after that with Westbrook coming off the books. They won't pay a repeater tax, which is the real killer.

* Technically, Troy Brown Jr. is a team option, but it's a no-brainer that we will opt in so I counted it as committed salary.

[queridiculo]

I wouldn't be surprised if Leonsis was willing to pay the luxtax though. He won't go deep into the luxtax like Golden State, but he might go 4 or 5 million into the tax. The following year, the team will have a big luxtax payment assuming Beal is resigned and Brown Jr. is retained, but they get relief after that with Westbrook coming off the books. They won't pay a repeater tax, which is the real killer.

* Technically, Troy Brown Jr. is a team option, but it's a no-brainer that we will opt in so I counted it as committed salary.

Luxury tax yes, but Leonsis isn't going to go into repeater tax territory anytime soon, so Sheppard is going to keep his powder dry until the results on the court indicate that it may be time to double down.

[nate33]

I wouldn't be surprised if Leonsis was willing to pay the luxtax though. He won't go deep into the luxtax like Golden State, but he might go 4 or 5 million into the tax. The following year, the team will have a big luxtax payment assuming Beal is resigned and Brown Jr. is retained, but they get relief after that with Westbrook coming off the books. They won't pay a repeater tax, which is the real killer.

* Technically, Troy Brown Jr. is a team option, but it's a no-brainer that we will opt in so I counted it as committed salary.

Luxury tax yes, but Leonsis isn't going to go into repeater tax territory anytime soon, so Sheppard is going to keep his powder dry until the results on the court indicate that it may be time to double down.

They can pay the luxtax two years in a row without paying the repeater.

[payitforward]

Jaren Jackson Jr is as close as we can get to an Anthony Davis type. ...Rui and TBJ for JJJ? ...JJJ doesn't rebound well..., but he's a gifted defender who made 39% of his 3's and just turned 21. He has the versatility to play either PF or C - assuming he adds muscle to a frame that should be able to add it. Rui and TBJ is a high price to pay, but JJJ is worth it and would be a near perfect fit for the Wiz - though he would benefit from getting physically stronger.

As a matter of interest, Ruz, compare JJJ's numbers to those of Davis Bertans. They are remarkably similar in a bunch of areas.

Bertans' numbers are a lot better overall -- mostly because he's a more efficient scorer & because Jackson commits a whole lot of fouls -- which makes me wonder, btw, just how gifted a defender he really is.

Neither you nor I is high on Rui, but he was far better as a rookie than Jackson was in his 2d year. Despite JJJ's 3-pt. proficiency.

Now, Jackson is almost 2 years younger than Rui (20 months), but he's played over 3000 NBA minutes, & he wasn't really a better player his 2d year than he was as a rookie.* I'd be happier about trading for him if he'd shown more movement in the direction of that upside everyone is so sure he has.

* Better 3 pt. %, worse 2pt. %, lower FT% & got to the line less, TS% 59.3 vs 59.2. Fewer rebounds. All else about the same overall.

[Ruzious]

Jaren Jackson Jr is as close as we can get to an Anthony Davis type. ...Rui and TBJ for JJJ? ...JJJ doesn't rebound well..., but he's a gifted defender who made 39% of his 3's and just turned 21. He has the versatility to play either PF or C - assuming he adds muscle to a frame that should be able to add it. Rui and TBJ is a high price to pay, but JJJ is worth it and would be a near perfect fit for the Wiz - though he would benefit from getting physically stronger.

As a matter of interest, Ruz, compare JJJ's numbers to those of Davis Bertans. They are remarkably similar in a bunch of areas.

Bertans' numbers are a lot better overall -- mostly because he's a more efficient scorer & because Jackson commits a whole lot of fouls -- which makes me wonder, btw, just how gifted a defender he really is.

Neither you nor I is high on Rui, but he was far better as a rookie than Jackson was in his 2d year. Despite JJJ's 3-pt. proficiency.

Now, Jackson is almost 2 years younger than Rui (20 months), but he's played over 3000 NBA minutes, & he wasn't really a better player his 2d year than he was as a rookie.* I'd be happier about trading for him if he'd shown more movement in the direction of that upside everyone is so sure he has.

* Better 3 pt. %, worse 2pt. %, lower FT% & got to the line less, TS% 59.3 vs 59.2. Fewer rebounds. All else about the same overall.

Defense matters. Comparing JJJ to Bertans makes absolutely no sense to me. JJJ's biggest attraction is his defense. He has the potential to be an All- NBA defender. That's the main reason I'm interested in him. It's an added bonus that he's an excellent 3 point shooter. The best is yet to come for him because he hasn't physically matured yet - there's a lot of room for him to get stronger. Defense is the biggest problem with the Wizards. They need to do something about that - for a change.