Deni Avdija

[gambitx777]

Any one who hates on deni for not being able to knock down a shot but still ant to trade for Ben Simmons. Please check yo self.

I happy to think deni has a chance to be a really good player and I'm fine giving hin my full support !

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

[payitforward]

In truth... Zards about nails it.

Biggest factors:

1. He's only 20 years old.
2. He has a very advanced skillset.
3. There are important facets of his game that have not yet been activated in the NBA context.

Result? Deni Avdija has a good chance to become an outstanding NBA player. It'll be fun to watch him this year -- working with a completely different coaching staff.

I've watched nearly every clip of his game at Macabi Tel Aviv, and I question your #2 point. What is this advanced skillset that you're referring to? Even if I concede the point that Deni can playmake in an above average way for a big man, the reality is that his limited handles prevent him from doing so in the present. Which imo, directly leads me to question your third point. What are these important facets of his game that have not been activated?

...if we are being fair we should treat Avdija the same as we treat Rui.... I understand the desire to be optimistic about Avdija but imo, Avdija underwhelming ball handling and inability to knock down hoots consistently, threaten to derail his career completely.

You might be right! Deni might turn out to have been a bad pick.

In fact... I've said this myself about a half dozen times! I loved the pick, but it might turn out that I was wrong. Am I saying it clearly enough this time that it comes across?

I'm not "optimistic" about Deni, & I'm not "optimistic" about Rui. I'm hopeful about each of them. In both their cases, I think there's some reason to hope they can become good NBA players. I'm more hopeful about Deni than about Rui -- that's true -- but for one reason only: Deni is three full years younger than Rui.

If Deni were the same age Rui was at the same point in his career, I'd view him the same way I view Rui. & if Deni was being described on this board the way Rui is described (i.e. seen through rose-colored glasses), I'd be posting about him the way I've posted about Rui.

Which brings me to this:

...we should treat Avdija the same as we treat Rui.

Prime, if you posted about Deni using the same criteria you do when you post about Rui, you'd be praising him to the skies rather than criticizing him!

[Dat2U]

Any one who hates on deni for not being able to knock down a shot but still ant to trade for Ben Simmons. Please check yo self.

I happy to think deni has a chance to be a really good player and I'm fine giving hin my full support !

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

I don't hate on Deni. Jared Jeffries had a rep as a pretty good defender. Got paid off of it. Started for a few playoff teams too. Unseld Jr used Deni correctly last night and he had big impact in sealing the win. Rebounded well too last night.

When Deni starts putting up Ben Simmons' numbers and becomes more than an situational defender, let me know.

[Kanyewest]

Defensive highlights from the last game

Watch on YouTube

[Ruzious]

Defensive highlights from the last game

Watch on YouTube

I'd like to fire the official who called the fall on Deni's clutch block on Tatum - especially considering Beal didn't get a similar call on the play just before it. You better be damn sure there was actually a fall if you call something in that situation, and there wasn't. That's why I wasn't upset that Beal didn't get a call. The worst thing you can be is inconsistent. That was maybe the biggest positive call reversal in Wiz history.

[doclinkin]

Defensive highlights from the last game

Watch on YouTube

I'd like to fire the official who called the fall on Deni's clutch block on Tatum - especially considering Beal didn't get a similar call on the play just before it. You better be damn sure there was actually a fall if you call something in that situation, and there wasn't. That's why I wasn't upset that Beal didn't get a call. The worst thing you can be is inconsistent. That was maybe the biggest positive call reversal in Wiz history.

Especially given that they were allowing plays like this absolute mugging my Richardson on Dinwiddie:

https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?ContextMeasure=STL&EndPeriod=0&EndRange=34800&GameID=0022100078&PlayerID=1626196&RangeType=0&Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&StartPeriod=0&StartRange=0&TeamID=1610612738&flag=1&sct=plot&section=game

Really. You can grab and drag the arm of the ballhandler to take the ball away from them. That's how we are playing this game now. I do hope there is a league wide review of the first month with officials taking a hard 2nd look at this sort of play.

[tontoz]

Deni's block at the end reminds me of something fairly unique about his defense. He never bites on pump fakes. I noticed this early last year.

He will contest shots (6 blocks so far this season) but he refuses to bite on pump fakes.

[badinage]

And he keeps moving his feet.

And he plays with his chest out.

I think there’s a lot of Kirilenko in him.

Watch on YouTube

[payitforward]

Coming back to this:

...What does your per possession analysis tell us about how Avdija compares to the average small forward? Surely he must be severely below average and therefore an underwhelming player. How does Avdija's 3-point makes compare to the average sf? At 31% from his career, surely it can't be good...

A perfectly fair question. Let's use Avdija's rookie year, during most of which he was 19 years old, & compare his per-40-minute numbers to an average NBA SF.

First the non-scoring stuff:

Rebounds:
Deni: 8.33
Average: 6.33

Assists
Deni: 2
Average; 3.33

Turnovers
Deni: 1.1
Average: 1.9

Blocks
Deni: .5
Average: .58

Steals
Deni: 1
Average: 1.25

Fouls
Deni: 4.4
Average: 3

19-year old rookie Deni Avdija was pretty much exactly average on that stuff overall.

Then there's scoring, where's he was definitely behind:

Points
Deni: 11
Average: 17.75

2-pt. %
Deni: 53.5%
Average: 51.7%

3-pt. %
Deni: 31.5%
Average: 36.6%

FT %
Deni: 64.4%
Average: 79.5%

EFG%
Deni: 50.2%
Average: 53.1%

TS%
Deni: 51.5%
Average: 56.5%

# FGAs
Deni: 11.9
Average: 17.1

# FTAs
Deni: 1.42
Average: 3.25

There you go. & this data gives us exactly the same kind of info about Deni that any other rookie's numbers give us about that player. & his numbers this year will give us the same info where & how he's improved, stayed the same, or gotten worse that any other second year players numbers give us about that player.

[Dolevi]

I agree with both side of things which have been said here (for and anti Deni). Deni is lack in confidence in his offense game (even when he does try doing things, he's afraid to create contact/spacing and ect), he's lack in his agressiveness, the assartiveness and mostly in the offensive talent part in general he's not good enough (things which can be improve over time).

However, His rebounding and defense are a strong part in his game already (and we shouldn't take it as an obvious thing). It's good. If he'll be able to put 10-15 points at night for average at his peak (even with the passimistic scenario i can see it happen) with this defense, probably he'll be a good role player in this league. That's the minimum expectation (and it's not bad, even for a lottery pick).

Also, he has the potential to be a very good playmaker with all his size and pyshicallity, which is not obvius at all. His passing skills are also very good. What i've been trying to say is, his "ticket" to the NBA can come from a lot of directions. Even now his defense is doing quite good things. His shooting and creating / skiils in the offensive side of the game indeed requires a lot of improving, but if it does gonna happen, he will just become a very very good player in this league. That's the very very optimistic scenario. The question is, does right now his talent and effectivenss have a place in the NBA? is it good enough? or should he play in the G league instead for a while?
A lot of questions.
I have my answer anyways.
I'm optimist and a lot of that is because of the new coach Wes Unseld Jr.. It's good to see how he believes in his young talents and let them play and take the ball. I hope it will continue.

[payitforward]

Deni to G League? Hell no.... Not based on the way he's playing right now. Overall, he has been extremely effective! & for a guy his age...? All the moreso.

He's 3d on the team in rebounding. He's second in blocked shots. Only a few games, no conclusions to draw, but so far so good.

Prime is still correct in saying that he needs to become a better scorer -- that's what is holding down his ceiling at present.

[Dolevi]

Deni to G League? Hell no.... Not based on the way he's playing right now. Overall, he has been extremely effective! & for a guy his age...? All the moreso.

He's 3d on the team in rebounding. He's second in blocked shots. Only a few games, no conclusions to draw, but so far so good.

Prime is still correct in saying that he needs to become a better scorer -- that's what is holding down his ceiling at present.

Understood.

It's good to use him for specific tactics and defensive line-ups, maybe good for defensive pressure of playoffs, but still, you recieve more damage to your chances to win games in general in my opinion. And it's gonna be crucial for the Wizards this season. The league today is mostly offensive talent, it's everywhere. That's why sending him to the G league where he will get more touches, be able to throw a lot more to the basket and make plays - it will be very effective for his advance. it will improve Deni himself as a player!

Think what's gonna happen when Rui comes back. How many minutes will Deni get? Even now with his playtime he can not do much against NBA defenders. He struggles a lot, He surely needs to develop his offensive game and it's something he can do with personal trainers, hard work and time (which he hasn't while the season continuing).

And despite all that, yes you're right. We have a full season coming through, it's too early to jump to conclusions. Let's see how it goes.

[payitforward]

If Deni keeps playing solid defense & doing the other stuff he's doing, & if we keep winning at a solid pace, minutes will be there for him. I would not be worrying about Rui right now -- more a question of whether he comes back than when. & what state he's in when he does return.

In any case, Deni's been playing the 3. I wouldn't look for Rui to compete with him for minutes.

[keynote]

If Deni keeps playing solid defense & doing the other stuff he's doing, & if we keep winning at a solid pace, minutes will be there for him. I would not be worrying about Rui right now -- more a question of whether he comes back than when. & what state he's in when he does return.

In any case, Deni's been playing the 3. I wouldn't look for Rui to compete with him for minutes.

I envision Rui and Kuz playing together as Fs, so I fully expect Rui's return to result in a reduction of minutes for Deni. I suppose that Deni could improve to the point that Wes stopped playing KCP so much at the three to make room -- which in turn would restrict KCP to the 2, pushing Holiday or Neto to the fringe of the rotation. But that seems less likely.

[Runner300]

The Wizards are aiming for playoffs. They play (or at least try to) - strong defense.
With the new coach, motivation and energy from players like Gafford and Harrel, there's a spirit
of fighting hard for every looseball, win every game.
Team play is reduced to Beal's iso ball. No ball movement.

No garbage time. No "2nd unit playmaker" minutes.

Deni became the defensive substitute in key minutes last game.
Back to the bench for offense.
Deni was in similar situation in Maccabi - a defense oriented title contender,
in need of effective players here and now.
You blink in defense? You get thrown to the bench.
You take an unplanned shot? You break team plays? You get yelled at and back to the bench.
Not much of development.

His versatility hits the wall vs NBA athletes.
Needs to adjust and develop his offensive game.

Maybe it's not a bad idea to send him to G-League.
On the other hand it will be a blow to his confidence.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Good information, Runner300.

Deni was drafted in the same class as Jalen Smith. He's played a lot more than Jalen, but both have so far been underperfoming expectations from when they were drafted.

Jalen Smith went to G League but didn't stand out. Deni might do better staying put in the NBA. I agree with you about his confidence being fragile.

“Love without limits, dream without fear and live in the moment.“

[badinage]

Good information, Runner300.

Deni was drafted in the same class as Jalen Smith. He's played a lot more than Jalen, but both have so far been underperfoming expectations from when they were drafted.

Jalen Smith went to G League but didn't stand out. Deni might do better staying put in the NBA. I agree with you about his confidence being fragile.

“Love without limits, dream without fear and live in the moment.“

Jalen Smith just had his option declined by Phoenix.

So, not a great comparison with Deni, who has already shown himself to be valuable on defense and a player to invest in (recall Junior’s interview to become head coach).

[dobrojim]

Coming back to this:

...What does your per possession analysis tell us about how Avdija compares to the average small forward? Surely he must be severely below average and therefore an underwhelming player. How does Avdija's 3-point makes compare to the average sf? At 31% from his career, surely it can't be good...

A perfectly fair question. Let's use Avdija's rookie year, during most of which he was 19 years old, & compare his per-40-minute numbers to an average NBA SF.

First the non-scoring stuff:

Rebounds:
Deni: 8.33
Average: 6.33

Assists
Deni: 2
Average; 3.33

Turnovers
Deni: 1.1
Average: 1.9

Blocks
Deni: .5
Average: .58

Steals
Deni: 1
Average: 1.25

Fouls
Deni: 4.4
Average: 3

19-year old rookie Deni Avdija was pretty much exactly average on that stuff overall.

Then there's scoring, where's he was definitely behind:

Points
Deni: 11
Average: 17.75

2-pt. %
Deni: 53.5%
Average: 51.7%

3-pt. %
Deni: 31.5%
Average: 36.6%

FT %
Deni: 64.4%
Average: 79.5%

EFG%
Deni: 50.2%
Average: 53.1%

TS%
Deni: 51.5%
Average: 56.5%

# FGAs
Deni: 11.9
Average: 17.1

# FTAs
Deni: 1.42
Average: 3.25

There you go. & this data gives us exactly the same kind of info about Deni that any other rookie's numbers give us about that player. & his numbers this year will give us the same info where & how he's improved, stayed the same, or gotten worse that any other second year players numbers give us about that player.

I remember a lot of years ago in the Arenas days how TSW once posted that because GA was already
pretty good at such a young age, it was very likely that he would become very good in his prime years
which ended up being true, but for Gerald Wallace and Javaris Crittendon.

The fact that he (Deni) has been solid at age 19-20 is encouraging as a Wiz fan. It's not a guarantee of anything
but it is an encouraging sign.

[payitforward]

Exactly. No guarantees but there's a lot to work with for a kid who's still so young.

[prime1time]

Deni to G League? Hell no.... Not based on the way he's playing right now. Overall, he has been extremely effective! & for a guy his age...? All the moreso.

He's 3d on the team in rebounding. He's second in blocked shots. Only a few games, no conclusions to draw, but so far so good.

Prime is still correct in saying that he needs to become a better scorer -- that's what is holding down his ceiling at present.

Why does his age matter? Regardless, Deni's not becoming a better scorer any time soon. What's important isn't his scoring, but his shooting. He needs to be able to space the floor. This is nothing new. It was said when we drafted him. It was said when he was knocking down shots early in his rookie year. And it's being said now. I want to be clear, other than Gafford and Harrell, everyone on our team should be able to make 3's. It is what good teams do.