Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.

[nate33]

The problem with starting Morris, Beal, Deni, Kuzma and Porzingis is that they are our 5 best playmakers on the roster. Sure, they'd be fine together, but there are diminishing returns in having all five guys be quality offensive decision makers. There is only one basketball.

If those five guys start, then none of them are on the second unit. That would leave the second unit with Wright, Barton, Kispert, Hachimura and Gafford. Who is going to run that offense? Who can get them into their sets and get all those point guard dependent players the ball?

Yes, there is no optimal solution at starting SF. Deni fits better as a playmaker with the 2nd unit. Problem is Kispert as a starting SF will get overwhelmed defending big wings. So Rui is probably the best possible choice, provided he keeps up his 3% percentages. He has shown he can be an effective one-on-one defender but his lack of team defensive IQ is a worry...

In any case, I fear Wes will start Barton at SF and play him 30+ minutes a game...

If we are going to start Morris, (which I think is a mistake), then, yes, I'd say Rui is probably the best option at SF alongside a lineup of Morris, Beal, Kuzma and Porzingis.

Although, this is under the assumption that we are having a prototypical starters and 2nd unit concept. If we do that, then Wes must pay attention to the synergy of players on both the lineups.

The other option is to stagger Beal and KP in such a way that one is always on the floor. If, for example, Porzingis played 3 shifts per half instead of two, it could solve some problems. If Porzingis played the first and last 5 minutes of each half, plus the 6 minutes in the middle, he would get two short 4-minute rest breaks per half and end up with 32 minutes a game. Beal could play the first and last 9 minutes of each half, staying on the court for the entire 4 minute stretch that Porzingis is off and end up with 36 minutes.

With one of Beal or Porzingis on the court at all times, it makes it much easier to mix and match lineups around them because neither guy is PG dependent.

[doclinkin]

Is this good or bad? Not a two way competition between Deni and Corey but "wide open"...

Read on Twitter

It's meaningless.

I don't expect a press release saying, SF is locked up by Player X. Basically, all positions are "wide open" except SG and C.

Especially given that we have 5 small forwards on the roster.

Avdija, Barton, Kispert, Kuzma, Rui, Todd all are most comfortable playing as a face-up outside forward. Kuz rebounds the best so he is our default at 4, but none of these guys are setting up on the baseline and banging in the paint by first choice. Whomever fits best next to Beal and KP will get the other spot.

[dckingsfan]

...The other option is to stagger Beal and KP in such a way that one is always on the floor...

To me, how this is going to work is going to be one of the keys, namely who is in with Beal and what offense will Wes run for Beal without the Zinger.

I guess ?!? we start with Gafford. He is mostly effective on offense in the P&R - so, does it become a Beal/Gafford P&R set and what players do you want around those two?

I really don't know how Wes will play this thing out, but I think you are right that he will want to keep one of the two on the floor at all times. I think I know the offense Wes will run when Zinger is on the floor. I am fascinated to see how the Beal offense plays out.

Your thoughts on the Beal offense and other players in the set?

[doclinkin]

If we are going to start Morris, (which I think is a mistake), then, yes, I'd say Rui is probably the best option at SF alongside a lineup of Morris, Beal, Kuzma and Porzingis.

Although, this is under the assumption that we are having a prototypical starters and 2nd unit concept. If we do that, then Wes must pay attention to the synergy of players on both the lineups.

The other option is to stagger Beal and KP in such a way that one is always on the floor. If, for example, Porzingis played 3 shifts per half instead of two, it could solve some problems. If Porzingis played the first and last 5 minutes of each half, plus the 6 minutes in the middle, he would get two short 4-minute rest breaks per half and end up with 32 minutes a game. Beal could play the first and last 9 minutes of each half, staying on the court for the entire 4 minute stretch that Porzingis is off and end up with 36 minutes.

With one of Beal or Porzingis on the court at all times, it makes it much easier to mix and match lineups around them because neither guy is PG dependent.

Looking at game flows from last season, late, (Charlotte)
Knicks game.


we had a good starting line-up of mix and match players that started both games ~ +5

Sato
Kispert
Deni
Rui
Gafford.

We lost a big defender/distributor in Satoransky but can replace him in the role with a better shooter in Wright. Seems to me we don't lose much in that switch, especially if Deni has taken a step forward in ballhandling and as a floor general, as it looks like he concentrated on this summer. Anyway it seems like whatever we lose in passing, we make up for in spacing/defense/shooting.

If so that would make our starting line:

Morris
Beal
Barton
Kuz
Porzingis

Not ideal to me, but it seems plausible to start the year if Wes wants to install some principles of the offense with guys he's familiar with. I expect it would change pretty quickly, especially if our 2nd unit proves more effective than the starters.

I think Beal/Barton are redundant in the same line, and would prefer someone bigger at the 3. It looks better with Rui at the 3 over Barton.

If so the 2nd line is:

Wright
Barton
Kispert
Deni
Gafford

Which I don't actually hate, and Wes may like having Barton as ballhandler and playmaker here. We are small in this line, but if Wright/Deni check the toughest attackers, that gives Gafford time to get in position to eradicate shots without fouling. Kispert is a smart positional defender, he just lacks length and high end athleticism, but wIth this crew I think he is less vulnerable on switches etc.

If we need a bigger version:

Wright
Barton
Deni
Taj
Gafford

Looks like a defensive monster, but only if Taj's improved corner 3 (60% from left corner, 37% from right) is not a small sample hallucination (26 total shots). And if Deni has upgraded his shot as well.

Whichever way. Seems to me our one strength after Beal/Zinger is that we can go plausibly deep into our bench without much drop-off in skill/talent. We might as well use that strength by actually playing 10 guys. 11 if Gafford gets foul trouble and we have to go to Taj. Zinger and Beal both may see load management (well, relative to past years of Beal's high minute totals) and the FO may want to showcase some players to gauge interest in trade/upgrades.


(Ok I'm done being the new hands11. Just restless, my workplace is being renovated so I have time. I'll switch back to writing fiction. I mean a different fiction other than the possibility that the Wizards might do anything good this year.)

[payitforward]

Why are you doing this, doc?

Lets analyze overall offensive impact by Trez & KP. I.e. how much benefit (points) at how big a cost (possessions used to get those points).
But, lets start by saying that both were good. We're not criticizing one guy by pointing out something the other guy might have done better.

Per 40 minutes:

Points:
KP: 31.4
Trez: 23.15

FGAs:
KP: 21.67
Trez: 13.75

FTAs:
KP: 9.67
Trez: 7.33

TS%
KP: 60.6
Trez: 68.4

To score 8.25 more points than Trez, KP took 7.9 more shots & 2.33 more FTAs. I.e. those 8.25 points were acquired at a cost of @9 possessions & at a TS% of .462 (the overall TS% of the Wizards last year on the season was .568, btw).

But, obviously, if you gain extra possessions for your team, that needs to be counted in -- i.e. in effect to reduce the possessions it takes to score your points. (Hope that's written clearly enough to be understood...). Ditto -- but in the opposite direction -- if you lose possessions -- but in the other way. So... a steal or an offensive rebound gives your team an extra possession. A turnover takes a possession away from your team.

Possessions gained per 40 minutes:
KP: 1.85
Trez: 2.33

Of course, passing also helps on offense, & assists give us a rough measure of that benefit. Usually, that benefit is measured as 1/2 of the assists:

Assists per 40 minutes:
KP: 5
Trez: 4.1

So, overall, these other factors (possessions gained & passing) more or less cancel each other out. We can simply look at the two players scoring, where KP was good but Trez was quite a lot better.

None of this is to say that Montrezl Harrell is "better" than Kristaps Porzingis, i.e. more talented, more valuable, whatever. Nor does this little comparison even venture into defense.

What it does do, however, is confirm the fact that Trez had a hell of a good (partial) season in a Wizards uniform -- a fact which all of us noted along the way, & which is documented as well in the high number of POTG picks we gave him. Quite unusually high for a guy coming in off the bench.

Who knows what went wrong in that locker room, but whatever it was let's hope it's altogether behind us. I'm looking forward to seeing the way KP works out as a Wizard. May his injury issues be behind him! & I'm also looking forward to seeing how Morris, Wright & Barton impact the team. May it all be really really good!

[dckingsfan]

Spoiler:

Why are you doing this, doc?

Lets analyze overall offensive impact by Trez & KP. I.e. how much benefit (points) at how big a cost (possessions used to get those points).
But, lets start by saying that both were good. We're not criticizing one guy by pointing out something the other guy might have done better.

Per 40 minutes:

Points:
KP: 31.4
Trez: 23.15

FGAs:
KP: 21.67
Trez: 13.75

FTAs:
KP: 9.67
Trez: 7.33

TS%
KP: 60.6
Trez: 68.4

To score 8.25 more points than Trez, KP took 7.9 more shots & 2.33 more FTAs. I.e. those 8.25 points were acquired at a cost of @9 possessions & at a TS% of .462 (the overall TS% of the Wizards last year on the season was .568, btw).

But, obviously, if you gain extra possessions for your team, that needs to be counted in -- i.e. in effect to reduce the possessions it takes to score your points. (Hope that's written clearly enough to be understood...). Ditto -- but in the opposite direction -- if you lose possessions -- but in the other way. So... a steal or an offensive rebound gives your team an extra possession. A turnover takes a possession away from your team.

Possessions gained per 40 minutes:
KP: 1.85
Trez: 2.33

Of course, passing also helps on offense, & assists give us a rough measure of that benefit. Usually, that benefit is measured as 1/2 of the assists:

Assists per 40 minutes:
KP: 5
Trez: 4.1

So, overall, these other factors (possessions gained & passing) more or less cancel each other out. We can simply look at the two players scoring, where KP was good but Trez was quite a lot better.

None of this is to say that Montrezl Harrell is "better" than Kristaps Porzingis, i.e. more talented, more valuable, whatever. Nor does this little comparison even venture into defense.

What it does do, however, is confirm the fact that Trez had a hell of a good (partial) season in a Wizards uniform -- a fact which all of us noted along the way, & which is documented as well in the high number of POTG picks we gave him. Quite unusually high for a guy coming in off the bench.

Who knows what went wrong in that locker room, but whatever it was let's hope it's altogether behind us. I'm looking forward to seeing the way KP works out as a Wizard. May his injury issues be behind him! & I'm also looking forward to seeing how Morris, Wright & Barton impact the team. May it all be really really good!

With respect to the two of you, can we keep this to line-ups and rotations for this season? Or can we take this to the trade thread or some place else or some other retrospective thread?

[doclinkin]

Yeah. My point goes towards analysis, and this season's Porzingis. But that horse is long dead. No point, we will see soon enough.
-_-

-_- SECRET EAST COAST VIGILANTE FORUM MESSAGE. DESTROY AFTER READING. EYES ONLY. DO NOT QUOTE.
Not sure where you are picking up your stats. But using Per 100 possessions (to keep it pace neutral) and using only the minutes that each played on the Wizards (since that is what we are measuring, who played better for the team). Check basketball reference for the per100 stats. Overall Kristaps was better on the Wizards than Trez was for the Wizards. Better rebound percentage, better assist percentage, fewer turnovers, etc. Yes Trez scored more efficiently, on dunks mostly, yes on fewer shots, against back-ups, and not as the focal point of the opposing defense. (Trez Usage of 20% vs Zinger's 30%). The greater the usage, the lower the eFG% tends to be, as opposing defenses key on that player, the best players can maintain that average. "Why are we doing this?" Your argument was that we were surely not likely to be much better than last year, and that losing Trez is a key reason why. You can demonstrate that Trez scores more efficiently in his limited role. Yes. A dunk is a higher percentage shot. And Trez forced more fouls. In every other respect Porzingis was better. And his teammates scored more efficiently next to him. Assists went up. But okay. I'll drop it. I agree with others' assertion that this is a significantly different team, even with most of the same personnel. I also agree that our record may not be significantly different. We should play better AND it probably won't result in a better win total because the competition has truly gotten tougher. Unless half the East decides to commit to a hard tank. So. No point.

[payitforward]

Can't wait for training camp to start!!

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I admire the stamina and passion you guys put into this thread!

I'm not over the Beal deal.

Sent from my SM-A536U using RealGM mobile app

[doclinkin]

It seems like a very common theme is Porzingis' passing. I really think Wes is going to implement Denver's system, with KP as Jokic. And I think it will work pretty well. On paper, the chemistry between KP as a high post passer and Beal, Wright, Avdija, Kuzma as backdoor cutters makes a lot of sense.

Hearing that Morris and Gafford are developing chemistry continues to reinforce my wish that Morris come off the bench with the 2nd unit. He can run pick-and-roll with Gafford and our best floor spreaders: Kispert, Hachimura and Barton, can provide the spacing.

Kispert also makes smart cuts.

One hopeful thing to me is that we are developing depth in shooters. Seems like. Interestingly it's not Beal, Zinger, or Kuz. Each of them have shot well in the past, but their recent record falls short. It would be nice if any one of them could rediscover their shot. Even so Morris, Barton, Kispert, Rui, Wright, all add competent outside marksmanship.

I like Morris with Gafford, but this team needs leadership on the floor. Beal isn't it. Kuz would like the role, so maybe there is something there. Could be a new more serious KP takes the role. Maybe Deni grows into that guy in a few years. Anyway as a starting PG Wright is a quiet guy, a 'get in where you fit in' kind of player. I think Wes will start Morris.

I am most curious what happens with Rui. I feel like wherever he fits in line-ups may determine what happens in the rest of the lines.

Morris
Beal
Rui
Kuzma
Zinger

Seems plausible on paper, and yet in the data looks like it has the worst possible +/-. Which in a tankstakes year is a good combination. We look like we are playing our best talent and our stars, while giving opponents a head start.

In that set up the second line of:

Wright
Barton
Kispert
Deni
Gafford

looks like it has enough sharpshooting playmaking and defense to claw back into games.

I like Deni in a 2nd line since I think his complete game would be stunted playing next to high usage starters. Brad, Kuz, KP will all need touches. They need a 3&D role player who can finish on the interior. Hopefully that is what Rui grows into.

As a starter Deni would be a facilitator, glue guy, defender. I just don't think he would touch the ball much. Maybe that's a positive as far as the starters are concerned, but I don't think it will develop him to his best potential. I liked the confidence the kid showed in Euro qualifiers. I'd love for him to develop the same swagger here. He's going to play anyway, often with the starters in all likelihood.
His defense has been indispensable for the team though so even if he starts on the bench he will be an early sub. Wright too I expect, for the same reason.

I think Wes will definitely stagger his substitutions to keep playmakers and high IQ guys on the floor. Seems to me we have depth in smart players though so it won't be too tricky to make that work. Early on I'd expect Wes will want to make sure he has Morris and Barton in the game often. Personally I like them split up, but they may have chemistry that Wes wants to capitalize on.

[nate33]

It seems like a very common theme is Porzingis' passing. I really think Wes is going to implement Denver's system, with KP as Jokic. And I think it will work pretty well. On paper, the chemistry between KP as a high post passer and Beal, Wright, Avdija, Kuzma as backdoor cutters makes a lot of sense.

Hearing that Morris and Gafford are developing chemistry continues to reinforce my wish that Morris come off the bench with the 2nd unit. He can run pick-and-roll with Gafford and our best floor spreaders: Kispert, Hachimura and Barton, can provide the spacing.

Kispert also makes smart cuts.

One hopeful thing to me is that we are developing depth in shooters. Seems like. Interestingly it's not Beal, Zinger, or Kuz. Each of them have shot well in the past, but their recent record falls short. It would be nice if any one of them could rediscover their shot. Even so Morris, Barton, Kispert, Rui, Wright, all add competent outside marksmanship.

I like Morris with Gafford, but this team needs leadership on the floor. Beal isn't it. Kuz would like the role, so maybe there is something there. Could be a new more serious KP takes the role. Maybe Deni grows into that guy in a few years. Anyway as a starting PG Wright is a quiet guy, a 'get in where you fit in' kind of player. I think Wes will start Morris.

I am most curious what happens with Rui. I feel like wherever he fits in line-ups may determine what happens in the rest of the lines.

Morris
Beal
Rui
Kuzma
Zinger

Seems plausible on paper, and yet in the data looks like it has the worst possible +/-. Which in a tankstakes year is a good combination. We look like we are playing our best talent and our stars, while giving opponents a head start.

In that set up the second line of:

Wright
Barton
Kispert
Deni
Gafford

looks like it has enough sharpshooting playmaking and defense to claw back into games.

I like Deni in a 2nd line since I think his complete game would be stunted playing next to high usage starters. Brad, Kuz, KP will all need touches. They need a 3&D role player who can finish on the interior. Hopefully that is what Rui grows into.

As a starter Deni would be a facilitator, glue guy, defender. I just don't think he would touch the ball much. Maybe that's a positive as far as the starters are concerned, but I don't think it will develop him to his best potential. I liked the confidence the kid showed in Euro qualifiers. I'd love for him to develop the same swagger here. He's going to play anyway, often with the starters in all likelihood.
His defense has been indispensable for the team though so even if he starts on the bench he will be an early sub. Wright too I expect, for the same reason.

I think Wes will definitely stagger his substitutions to keep playmakers and high IQ guys on the floor. Seems to me we have depth in smart players though so it won't be too tricky to make that work. Early on I'd expect Wes will want to make sure he has Morris and Barton in the game often. Personally I like them split up, but they may have chemistry that Wes wants to capitalize on.

I consider this the next-best rotation if Wes insists on starting Morris. If he starts Morris, he is going to need Avdija on the 2nd unit to help Wright with playmaking. And that means someone else needs to be the starting forward. Of the 3 candidates: Rui, Kispert and Barton, Rui makes the most sense because he is theoretically the best 3&D guy, and his skills are likely to be maximized alongside a pure PG. Barton is needed as the Beal replacement on the 2nd unit, and Kispert doesn't have the defensive chops to start alongside sub-par defenders like Beal and Morris.

But I still don't love it. I really don't think Hachimura is well-suited to play off of Porzingis. Porzingis is going to draw a lot of unconventional double-teams and create weird passing lanes because he plays in the high post. He needs guys who can read and react, and make the right cuts. Hachimura lacks the basketball IQ to read and react. He plays better alongside a pure PG who can run pick-and-roll either with Rui setting the screen, or with a rim-diving center (Gafford) setting the screen while Rui spots up from 3. Those are two very straightforward roles that Rui can execute without thinking much. When serving as the PNR screen setter, just pick-and-pop, pick-and-roll, or post up a switch. When Morris and Gafford run pick-and-roll, just spot up for 3. No thinking necessary.

This is supported by the on/off data last year. When Rui was -8.7 when paired with Porzingis, but fared much better when paired with pure PG's like Sato (-4.5) and Ish (-5.9) and the PG-like Avdija (-2.7). He was terrible alongside a non-pure PG like Neto (-14.0)

[tleikheen]

The lean mean KP machine would benefit having the strong athletic Rui starting in front with the 1" taller Kuz in protecting KP in the paint. I like Rui bodying up Jimmy Butler ,OG Anounoby,Middleton, big bodied SF's who might attack KP in the paint and Kuz helping out with the bigger guys who try to bully their way against KP. I feel the season being lost if KP misses significant time on the court.
I like Deni working with Gaff and can see these guys developing a chemistry as Deni can put pressure on the rim which opens all kinds of lanes for Gaff. I also can see these guys staggering times on the court to keep our big young athletic guys constantly working the backboards.We might not be a top level defensive team but I can see the Wiz being one of the elite rebounding teams. That in itself keeps the Wiz close and competive in all the games.

[nate33]

The lean mean KP machine would benefit having the strong athletic Rui starting in front with the 1" taller Kuz in protecting KP in the paint. I like Rui bodying up Jimmy Butler ,OG Anounoby,Middleton, big bodied SF's who might attack KP in the paint and Kuz helping out with the bigger guys who try to bully their way against KP. I feel the season being lost if KP misses significant time on the court.
I like Deni working with Gaff and can see these guys developing a chemistry as Deni can put pressure on the rim which opens all kinds of lanes for Gaff. I also can see these guys staggering times on the court to keep our big young athletic guys constantly working the backboards.We might not be a top level defensive team but I can see the Wiz being one of the elite rebounding teams. That in itself keeps the Wiz close and competive in all the games.

I disagree with almost all of this.

Offensively, Avdija and Gafford are not ideal because Gafford needs room to rim run but Deni's outside shot will allow his defender to cheat off and tag Gafford as he rolls. Also Gafford is going to clog the paint some and take away Deni's ability to penetrate. Hachimura is a much better partner with Gafford because he can stretch the floor, allowing a Gafford/PG pick-and-roll the room to operate.

Defensively, I don't see Hachimura being a better partner for Porzingis either. Hachimura is stronger than Avdija, but Avdija is still a better rebounder and better at guarding most forwards than Hachimura. Hachimura may have the edge against really big PF's like Randall and Giannis, but Avdija is the better defender against most other forwards I can think of (Middleton, Kawhi, Durant, George, Butler, Anunoby, etc.)

[tleikheen]

Until Avidja is out there playing Rui and Corey are already staking claim on playing time .The 3 position is suppose to be wide open for the taking . If Rui and Corey pick up where they left off at the end of last season on shooting around 40 percent from 3's then Avidja needs to be a better threat than the under 32 per cent he shot last year.
The Wiz can't afford to be at/near the bottom in 3 pter's taken and made again to get off to a good start. Rui picks up where he left off is a dangerous player out there offensively with how effeiciently he puts tha ball in the basket. The Wiz played bad defensively last yr so they better be really good on one side of the ball at least.

[doclinkin]

I consider this the next-best rotation if Wes insists on starting Morris. If he starts Morris, he is going to need Avdija on the 2nd unit to help Wright with playmaking. And that means someone else needs to be the starting forward. Of the 3 candidates: Rui, Kispert and Barton, Rui makes the most sense because he is theoretically the best 3&D guy, and his skills are likely to be maximized alongside a pure PG. Barton is needed as the Beal replacement on the 2nd unit, and Kispert doesn't have the defensive chops to start alongside sub-par defenders like Beal and Morris.

But I still don't love it. I really don't think Hachimura is well-suited to play off of Porzingis. Porzingis is going to draw a lot of unconventional double-teams and create weird passing lanes because he plays in the high post. He needs guys who can read and react, and make the right cuts. Hachimura lacks the basketball IQ to read and react. He plays better alongside a pure PG who can run pick-and-roll either with Rui setting the screen, or with a rim-diving center (Gafford) setting the screen while Rui spots up from 3. Those are two very straightforward roles that Rui can execute without thinking much. When serving as the PNR screen setter, just pick-and-pop, pick-and-roll, or post up a switch. When Morris and Gafford run pick-and-roll, just spot up for 3. No thinking necessary.

This is supported by the on/off data last year. When Rui was -8.7 when paired with Porzingis, but fared much better when paired with pure PG's like Sato (-4.5) and Ish (-5.9) and the PG-like Avdija (-2.7). He was terrible alongside a non-pure PG like Neto (-14.0)

Yes to the above except that Rui doesn't have much of a pick and roll game. So far his version of a pick and roll is like a pick and pop except he drives into the defense and pulls up for a contested mid-range jumper. Maybe with Morris that improves. He has been working on guard skills every offseason. Not low-post skills and big man play. Maybe that changes this year with improved strength and confidence. He played more physical and rolled better with Westbrook and Ish.

Really Rui's best shot last year was his standstill jumper from 3, especially from the left side. That fits okay next to Zinger, who tends to shoot 3's from the top of the key, or hit a standstill midrange shot over the heads of shorter defenders. He does like to dive to the basket for putbacks, usually starting in the midrange above the FT line left or right.

Hachimura shot chart
Porzingis shot chart

Beal likes to drive to the midrange, starting from the right 3pt line above the elbow. Same spot that Zinger pulls up. I can't decide if that is good or bad. Are they getting in eachother's way? or does it mean either player is a danger, whether the pick springs the guard or the big rolls. The interesting thing to me about Beal's shot chart is that every year he has a different hotspot.. Maybe that means he adjusts to the personnel around him. Maybe it's coaching. I don't have an explanation. Recently he has had a hot zone to the left of the FT line. Which would make for a good pick and pop option with Rui.

Monte hits from really everywhere, his shot chart is good looking. Above average from everywhere on the floor. Maybe that's the Jokic effect, but still, Morris took full advantage of his opportunities.

By contrast Kuzma is mediocre everywhere. He can hit from Rui's hot spot though if they are running some pick and pop game over there.

But running that same exercise with your 2nd line (Morris, Barton, Kispert, Rui, Gafford) does put good shooters in every position. Morris is strong at the top of the key, Barton is decent all around the arc from 3, Kispert was deadly from the right corner and on backdoor cuts to the paint, Rui is strongest from the left, Gafford rolling to the paint. That set looks like it would be hard to guard. Which is good because it looks like a miserable defensive group

[tleikheen]

So far his version of a pick and roll is like a pick and pop except he drives into the defense and pulls up for a contested mid-range jumper.

Rui's even better than I thought , driving into contested shots and shooting 48 percent for his career !

[doclinkin]

So far his version of a pick and roll is like a pick and pop except he drives into the defense and pulls up for a contested mid-range jumper.

Rui's even better than I thought , driving into contested shots and shooting 48 percent for his career !

Except he hit 38% on the 556 shots he took from midrange. Over a third of the shots he took were from that no man's land. If he had better shot selection, or teammates feeding him the ball in scoring position, then his numbers would look even better.

Yet he says in interviews that the midrange is his spot. And he worked in the summer to be better able to get to his spot. Dude can score, he just doesn't always recognize what a good shot is. The only place in the midrange that he should be shooting is on the rightside baseline inside 15 ft up to the FT line. He shot 48% from that zone. It's not a dunk, but is reliable. But that's on coaching and teammates and plays designed to set him up. His upside on the offensive end is impressive, even if his instincts lead him astray.

[nate33]

Yes to the above except that Rui doesn't have much of a pick and roll game. So far his version of a pick and roll is like a pick and pop except he drives into the defense and pulls up for a contested mid-range jumper. Maybe with Morris that improves. He has been working on guard skills every offseason. Not low-post skills and big man play.

You're right. I can't argue with this. Rui is pick-and-pop only.

[DCZards]

I don’t have a problem with Rui developing his midrange. While he might be at his best from a certain spot on the floor that doesn’t mean he can’t improve from the other spots if he puts in the work.

The midrange game gets a bad rap, IMO. Players like C. Paul, Derozan, K. Leonard and J. Butler have proven that a good midrange game can be a real weapon.

[payitforward]

Rui has improved his shooting by improving his 3-point % (& frequency). That's a good thing, because in pretty much every single other aspect of the game he is significantly below average.

His 2 pt. % is below average. His FT% is below average. He gets to the line at a below average rate. His defensive rebounding is below average. His offensive rebounding is below average. His blocks are below average. His steals are below average. His assists are below average.

Not everything, of course: his turnovers & fouls are fewer than average, which is good. But, overall, he's not all that close to an average NBA 4. Which means that when he's in a game he's contributing less to winning that game than would an average NBA forward if he were on the floor in Rui's place.

Now... if he's playing the 3 not the 4, his rebounding deficiencies are less of a problem. OTOH, he hasn't done that yet. So, in all, we'll see.

One thing is clear, however: this is the year for Rui. This is it. He's in his 4th year. He'll turn 25 this season.

As to...

Rui's even better than I thought , driving into contested shots and shooting 48 percent for his career !

...that's just silly. If you choose to do something that produces 48% efg% results, all that means is you don't have a strong grasp of how to play the game -- you don't have a high BBIQ.

Rui improved one important thing a whole lot last year. Maybe he can do the same this year with some other parts of his game. That would be great. That's what is necessary.